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What Do Cycles Say About the Bull Market?

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“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see.”
-Winston Churchill

Cycles exert their influence well beyond financial markets.

One example is the disruptive Uranus cycle which is approximately 84 years.

90 degrees of this cycle (1/4) is 21 years which has a strong correlation to American wars./life changing events in American history.

Every 4th turning of this 21 years takes a violent twist.

The English settled in Jamestown in 1607.

84 years later is 1691 is King William’s War in north America when the forces of the French and the Indians attack New York, Maine, New Hampshire and Massachusetts.

84 years later is 1775.

July 1776 was the beginning of the Revolutionary War.

84 years later is 1859 which ties to the beginning of the Civil War in April 1861.

Another 84 years is 1943 and WW2.

Of course I’m using an exact 84 year periodicity whereas planets have an elliptical orbit.

If you were to follow the exact timing of when Uranus entered the same point on the horoscope from 1607 ,the timing of these events is extraordinary.

That brings us to the next cycle of Uranus which begins in 2027.

However using the ‘sensitive’ point on the zodiac, we’re looking at January 2026.

Speaking of 1776 and correlations to U.S. events, On January 24th for the first time since 1778, Pluto entered Aquarius. In the 18th Century a similar ingress coincided with the birth of America.

It is worth wondering what kind of evolution or revolution will shake out our know world this decade.

The reason for looking at these big cycles is that the pattern/structure of the stock market indicates it is culminating its advance from the 2009 low.

Arguably, the structure from 1982 (as shown in past reports in this space) and 1932 are culminating.

“How much is left?” is the question.

Let’s take a look at the Fibonacci sequence in time starting with the Great Depression price low in 1932.

The prior cycle peaked with the 1929 top.

I’ve noticed that there are a number of Fibonacci relationships that point to cycle top in late 1921.

1932 +89=2021.
The next smaller Fibonacci number from 89 is 55.

1932 +55 = 1987.

The next smaller number is 34.

1932 +34 =1966.

Last week we wrote about the anniversary of the secular bull market high on February 9th, 1966.

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1966 is 58 years ago.

It is 58 years between the two biggest crashes in U.S. history—1929 and 1987.

Of course one, 1929, was a long lasting top that would not be recaptured for 25 years.

In keeping with the Principle Of Alternation, 1987 was a relatively short-lived event with a new high registered three years later.

The Rule Of Alternation suggests that the next crash will be long-lasting.

On the Square of 9 Wheel, the number 58 vibrates off/squares July 27th, October 27th, January 24th and April 24th.

The fact that we got a major high recently on July 27th and a major low recently on October 27th leads me to think that late January 2024 and late April 2024 must be watched.

The SPX saw a Spike & Reversal (spike down and reversal up) in late January and has extended.

However, that late January high at 4929 will be important support going forward.

A short term Bottoms Line shows that this week aligns with a 4929 pivot.

chart, line chart

Half Gann’s major 90 year cycle is 45 years. Gann wrote a book 45 Years On Wall Street.

Did anything important happen 45 years from the 1929 high?

Yes, the October 1974 bear market bottom.

Let’s take a look at the specific day count.

From the Sept 3, 1929 high to the Dec 12, 1974 (double bottom) low is 16,536 days.

Adding 16,536 days to Dec 12, 1974 is March 21, 2020.

Virtually a direct hit with the Covid Crash low that I forecast at that time looking for a momentous advance to at least 4,000 SPX

Combining  Time, the cycles, with the pattern, structure, shows the market is not just topping but in the danger zone.

chart, line chart

We’ve got 5 culminating waves up off the 2009 low.

The rally off the the October 2023 low is an Ending Diagonal.

Reversals from Ending Diagonals are fast and furious.

They retrace the entire rally from where they started.

That points to 4100.

However  there is a Panic Cycle on the clock which opens the door for the potential to test or undercut the October 2022 low at 3490.

We describe these Panic Cycles in recent Hit and Run Reports.

As walked through over the last few weeks in the Reports, 5013-5040 have been key objectives. On Friday the SPX struck an all-time high of 5030.

This is a critical juncture because February 13th, Tuesday, aligns with 504 (5040) on the Square of 9 Wheel.

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At the same time, we have a T-Square as the 481 prior all-time high from January 2022 also squares February 13 and 504.

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I think this is a big deal.

Whether the market will seal the deal directly with a significant top or pullback in respect to this Time/Price synergy we will know over coming weeks.

Early March is the 15th anniversary of the 2009 bear market low.

15 years is 180 months, an opposition.

This is potentially a big deal.

Early March is also the  anniversary of the 2000 NDX Bubble Top on March 10th, 2000.

We are 288 months from the NDX top in 2000.

288 squares Feb 9…this past Friday.

a graph with numbers and lines

In sum, I expect a correction.

The nature of that correction will answer a lot of questions, the most important of which is whether we are at a major Super Cycle Top or whether we get a blow-off following a down-draft.

From my perspective there are only two ways for another serious leg higher:

1)      A Jailbreak Rally above 5050 SPX

2)      A leg up following a corrective pullback (versus impulsive structure).

In other words an impulsive (5 wave) decline that knifes back through the prior January 2022 peak of 4818 warrants caution.

Why?

Because prior resistance should act as new support.

A daily SXP from the 2022 top shows the Ending Diagonal.

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Breakage below the horizontal purple line opens the door for lower prices.

Next support would be the magenta line at 4600, around a 50A% retrace.

Below 4550/4600 opens the door to 4450 and the big open gap from November 14th.

Let’s see what the NDX has to say.

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NDX shows 5 waves up from the October 2022 low.

NDX has struck the top rail of a trend channel.

As well it is backtesting the top of a Ghost Line (magenta).

The magenta Ghost Line produces an Ending Diagonal with the green Bottoms Line from the October 2023 low.

Like the SPX, breakage below the prior all-time high from late 2021/early 2022 warrants caution.

As it is, a test of that prior high region leaves the index vulnerable to a drop of more than 1000 points.

The Delirium Darling is NVDA will be canary in the momentum mine.

It looks like it’s culminating a vertical 3rd wave rally.

chart, line chart

NVDA is testing the top rail of a trend channel at 721 a level we flagged on Friday as squaring out with the 108 October 10, 2022 low.

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Assuming this 720 region is an inflection point, 360 degrees down is 620.
Another 180 degrees down gives 570 which satisfies a full “cube” of a move.

If the market is going to panic this spring, it will be spearheaded by NVDA that reports on February 21st.

February 21st squares both the 620 and 570.

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