T3 Live
Shares

Clear The Way For A Crash Landing

Shares

“Clear The Way For A Crash Landing, Clown”
-Emile Sande

This week is the 15th anniversary of the March 6, 2009 bear market low.

This is an important anniversary month as 15 years is ¼ or 90 degrees of W.D. Gann’s Master 60 Year Cycle.

While on the surface, the low in 2009 may look like the bottom of a 2  year bear market, in truth it was the bottom following the top 9 years earlier in March 2000.

The ensuing decline from March 2000 had a decisively playable corrective rally from 2002 to 2007.

The nominal new all-time high in October 2007 culminated a B Wave advance. Appropriately enough “B” wave symbolically stood for Bull Trap.

I suspect ultimately when the dust settles, this new high above the January 2002 high may also be viewed as a B wave.

In other words, the 7 year pattern from 2000 to 2007 may be a fractal of the two year pattern from 2000 to 2024…but more concentrated.

But it doesn’t matter. Time IS more important than price.

And there is a strong strong likelihood that Time cycles are going to exert their downside influence in Q2.

The cycles I’m looking at are so large that if they should miss by a year in the big scheme of things it will be nothing when it comes to holding on to your money.

That said, at the very least I suspect we still get an Airpocket that will set market participants' hair on fire in coming months whether it turns out to be THE Top or a shakeout.

I connected the March 2000 top with the January 2022 high on an arithmetic chart and price is kissing the top of the channel.

No one I know is counting this advance off the October 2022 low as a B Wave (with the A Wave being the drop from January thru October 2022).

Be that as it may whatever the “count” is,  this blowoff has exceeded the duration of all the blow-offs since 1900, including the 90 -100 day 1929 and 1987 blow-offs.

This in and of itself tell us that we’re dealing with a major top once this this thing culminates…clear the way for a crash landing.

Sometimes blowoffs see two sections, a 3 month followed by an additional 2 month last ditch run.

On December 20’s Hit and Run Report,  I wrote “The Runaway Blow-Off Move in 2000 started  on October 18 and ran up 90 days prior to another section which took the NDX into its March 24th top.

It subsequently crashed for two years.”

Once we cleared late January, it opened the door to a late March/early April top.

Interestingly, on April 8th, we get the 2nd Great American Eclipse.

The first one was on August 21st, 2017.

August 21st, 2017 was a low that saw the SPX explode FIVE months into late January 2018..

We got a Flash Crash.

Whereas the first Great American Eclipse marked the beginning of a surge into a top 5 months later, followed by a Flash Crash, my hypothesis is that this April 8th second Great American Eclipse may mark a top from a surge that started 5 months ago—a mirror image foldback.

Another Flash Crash would either precede this coming April 8th eclipse or follow it.

Checking a logarithmic SPX from 2000 shows that there is room to run to hit the top of the channel.

While theoretically, the market could take the A Train directly to the top of the channel in the 5200-5600 region, if that’s the agenda, I think it is more likely we would see a shakeout first followed by a last ditch run.

Below is a daily SPX from 2022.

Often it pays dividends to draw a trend line from the low before the low, the Internal Low.

In June 2022 the SPX struck an Internal Low.

I connected that low to the July 2023 high.

The line was hit late last week.

In addition to the upper trend line being hit on the arithmetic price chart, we have a Measured Move on the table.

From the October 2022 Weekly Closing Low of 3583 to the July 2023 Weekly Closing High of 4582, we get a range of 999 points.

999 points added to October 2023 Closing Weekly Closing Low of 4117 is 5116.

Friday’s close was 5137.

On an intraday/week basis from the October 2022 low of3491 to the October 2023 high of 4607 is a range of 1116 points.
Adding 1116 to the October 2023 low of 4104 is 5220.

We are due for a down-draft.

Tomorrow’s report will walk through what price action will be a blaring signal that the advance is over and what the targets are if the market extends, ideally  after a shakeout.

I paralleled a trend line off the October 2022 low.

Currently this Bottoms Line comes in at the 4750 region.

This ties to the Internal High at the  late November 2021 peak.

If we see a Flash Crash, my expectation is we could see a drop to the 4750 region prior to a last ditch run.

If this scenario plays out there will be no shorts left after that last ditch run…leaving the market on a perilous perch with no shorts left for support and everyone that wants to buy, having bought.

Leave a Comment: