The Morning Hammer: Happy Jobs Day!

It's been about a decade since the market's made a real move, but maybe we'll get some excitement with this morning's August NFP report, which hits the wires at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Traders are looking for 180K on the headline number with a 4.8% unemployment rate and 0.2% month-over-month growth in average hourly earnings.

With the way the dollar's been acting, it seems like the market is expecting a beat, which would help clear the way for the Fed to raise rates.

The Fed heads have been out in force as of late preparing the market for coming rate hikes, but the market itself may need a little more convincing.

Fed funds futures are currently pricing in a 60% chance of a December rate hike. That's up from just 9% post-Brexit, but still — it doesn't exactly scream total certainty.

So maybe if we get big numbers today (headline number above 220K and 0.3% growth average hourly earnings), those odds push higher.

On the flip side, if we get an in-line report or a miss, I'd expect the gold bugs to have a big party while equities pull back. I'd especially watch for a selloff in regional banks (KRE).

But no one really knows.

SPX futures are doing nothing this morning, which should come as no surprise since they've been doing nothing for 2 months.

As I've said about 10 million times, the SPX hasn't had a 1% down day since June 27. But with jobs numbers hitting, I guess today's as good a day as any to break this miserable streak.

Crude oil is up this morning, giving us a break from the downtrend. Russian President Vladimir Putin said he's like OPEC and Russia to reach a deal to freeze supply. Nigerian exports also fell in August.

So for now, it's steady as she goes, though I'm hoping that changes when the big jobs report hits.