The Morning Hammer: Maybe the Fed Went Too Far

One key trend we've been pointing out here again and again has been the degrading trend in US economic data, culminating in yesterday's trio of misses.

Now all of a sudden, the market's thinking that maybe the Fed went too far in pushing its rate hike case because we've seen such lousy data as of late.

Traders are now pricing in a 52% chance of a December rate hike, down from 60% last week.

September odds are down to 24% from 34% last week.

Gold has been on a rampage while the dollar's taking heat.

Equities of course, are still going nowhere.

SPX volatility is at a near 2-year low.

We haven't had a 1% SPX move since July 8, and we haven't had a 1% down down day since June 27.

I'm long VIX calls, so I have good reason to be bitter.

But I'm also just plain bored out of my mind.

Individual stocks are moving around nicely, but I'd love to see a little excitement in the broader indices.

Chipotle (CMG) is up this morning on news that Bill Ackman's Pershing Square took a 9.9% position. Ackman's going after the board to shake things up.

Grovery chain Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) cut its earnings outlook on competitive pressures and ongoings deflation. Whole Foods (WFM) is down in sympathy with it,

The economic calendar is pretty light with no market-moving reports, so it looks like we'll be in a holding pattern today ahead of tomorrow morning's ECB rate decision.

Good luck… staying awake, that is.