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Trading Case Studies: 1 Winner, 1 Loser

Thanks again for joining this week's Power Plays Trial. Hopefully, you checked out our lesson on moving averages. If not, i suggest watching that video first.

Because today I'm going to show you two Power Plays case studies, showing one loser and one winner.

And it will help illustrate how to 1) minimize losses when things go against you, and 2) use moving averages to manage swing positions.

BMNR Case Study: Taking a Paper Cut

We're going to start with our loser, a long in BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR).

Because in Power Plays, we exercise 100% transparency.

When a position goes against us, we want to learn from it. We don't pretend it didn't happen.

BMNR is a crypto treasury company holding over 4.3 million Ethereum. So it moves closely with Ethereum.

It's chaired by Fundstrat's Tom Lee, and has got a lot of attention when Ethereum came under pressure.

Now let's go through the trade.

On January 28, BMNR broke above through resistance at the 21 day moving average as Ethereum looked ready to break out above the prior's day high.

And I added BMNR to Power Plays at $29.86, because it had huge rally potential with Ethereum on the upswing.

But the very next day, it put in a big ugly red bar to lose all the moving averages.

And so we got out at $27.34 for an -8.4% loss.

That wasn't fun. But it could have been worse.

BMNR soon hit $17.19!

Here's the reality of what happened. Ethereum continued it downtrend, and my bull case for BMNR was negated.

So we took the loss, and moved on.

That's part of real-world swing trading.

If I was stubborn, the trade would have been a disaster.

RDW Case Study: Riding a Rocket

Now let's talk about Redwire (RDW), which has been our best play of 2026 so far.

Redwire makes critical components, including power systems, sensors, cameras, and other deployable structures for satellites and spacecraft.

And in late 2025, anything related to space exploration was red hot, so RDW was on our radar.

On January 2, the first trading day of the New Year, RDW broke out above the 8 day, which I believed would attract more momentum buyers.

We immediately had a move above the 200 day EMA, and we trimmed at $10.39 for a quick +13.9% gain.

The space rally continued, and we trimmed again at $12.83 on January 23. (+40.7% gain)

And on January 27, we had the final exit at $12.23 to lock in +34% on the final piece

Now, did I nail the exit perfectly?

No.

The same day of our exit, RDW hit a high of $14.55.

But, we caught enough of the move to net a solid gain, which is what successful swing trading is all about.

And as you can see on the chart, RDW started breaking moving averages one after the other.

If you were stubborn and held on during that downtrend, you could have ridden it down to $8.65!

So What Did We Learn Here?

First, as always, we have to respect the trend.

If a stock is trending hard above the 8 and 21 day moving averages, we want to stay long. As we did with Redwire (RDW).

And if a stock puts in a quick reversal and breaks the moving averages, you have to switch gears fast. The same way I dumped Bitmine (BMNR) a single day after I added.

Because if you're going to be wrong, be wrong small.

If that means switching gears fast, so be it.

As you can tell, my goal is to always be flexible.

Your ego can never be so big that you end up being stuck in place.

And this week, you'll see examples of these concepts at work!

By the way, if you want to learn more about moving averages for stock selection and portfolio management, go here now.

Thanks for Reading!

I hope this in-depth lesson gave you some valuable insights on how I view price action.

And I hope it helps you understand the daily content I send to my Power Plays subscribers.

About Scott Redler

Scott Redler has been a professional trader since 1999.

After 8 years of successful trading, Scott co-founded T3 Companies, LLC in 2007 and began serving as Chief Strategic Officer of both T3 Live and T3 Trading Group.

As the financial crisis began, Scott became a recurring guest on CNBC, repeatedly warning investors of the danger ahead.

Today, Scott remains a professional trader and regularly appears on CNBC, Bloomberg Television, and Fox Business.

His technical analysis work has been featured by numerous media outlets including the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, MarketWatch, and Investor’s Business Daily, among many others.

Scott has trained traders all around the world and has appeared in documentaries by the BBC and China’s CCTV-2.

Scott's Positions as of 2026-02-09 at 11.06.13 AM

Scott Redler is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG”), a SEC registered Broker-Dealer & Member of FINRA SIPC. All trades made by Scott are placed through T3TG.

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