Where Is the Stock Market Going in 2018? Readers Sound Off!
Where is the stock market going in 2018?
Will Bitcoin beat the S&P 500?
Is it time to dump tech stocks and get into banks?
These are the types of questions we're asking ourselves as we close out 2017.
And since we got so many great responses to our recent Bitcoin survey, we reached out to T3 Live readers to get their thoughts on these questions.
So let's go through the results of our survey asking readers for their 2018 outlooks.
Please keep in mind that this is not a scientific survey, so please take all the findings with a grain of salt.
Will the S&P 500 finish up or down in 2018?
72.6% of respondents said the S&P will finish up in 2018.
No shocker there, considering that the market's been ripping up in a straight line all year.
Which sector will do BEST?
38.4% of respondents said tech will be the #1 sector in 2018.
Again, that's no shocker. Besides Bitcoin and other crypto currencies, technology stocks have been the #1 place to be since President Trump's 2016 election.
Which sector will do WORST?
Traders must believe all the “Amazon is taking over the world” headlines, because respondents are very bearish on retail.
27.8% of respondents believe will retail will perform worst, followed by utilities at 25%.
Which asset class will perform best in 2018?
Respondents are most bullish on stocks, with 38.9% saying stocks will be the best-performing asset class for 2018.
Will the VIX rise over 40 at any point during the year?
Now here's where the survey gets interesting.
Respondents are bullish on what's been working: stocks in general, tech stocks in particular, and Bitcoin and other crypto currencies.
But 50% expect a spike in the VIX to over 40.
Not that traders were necessarily cognizant of the specific numbers, but the VIX hasn't been over 40 since the October 24, 2015 flash crash — over 2 years ago.
Will the S&P 500 have a -10% down day in 2018?
The S&P 500 has had only 1 10% down day in history — October 19, 1987 a.k.a Black Monday.
Yet 55.7% of respondents said the S&P 500 will have a 10% down day in 2018:
Will the S&P 500 enter a bear market in 2018? (defined as dropping 20% off the highs)
But in keeping with traders' generally bullish tone, just 29.6% expect a bear market in 2018, defined as a 20% drop off the highs:
What is the single biggest risk facing the stock market in 2018?
For this question, we're simply going to post some of the more interesting responses, completely unedited aside from spelling corrrections:
- Trump impeding Mueller’s investigation
- More aggressive Federal Reserve
- Anything happening to President Trump!
- Domestic geopolitical shocks as well as foreign policy
- Revolution against globalization
- Rates
- Turkish led civil unrest and war in the middle east.
- Inverted Yield Curve
- Selling to fund crypts. Apart from banking all other sectors should be positive overall
- ‘Trump agenda gets stalled by congress
- A geopolitical blacks wan (middle east as an example)
- North Korea
- The mid-term election
- Multiple rate hike, but highly unlikely
- Donald Trump
Traders seem most concerned with domestic politics and international unrest.
In particular, there is a good deal of worry about some kind of Trump-related surprise.
What is your single biggest challenge as a trader or investor? (be as detailed as you'd like!)
Traders seem most worried about the Fed, getting picked off by HFT's/algos, and trading through what feels like an extended market.
Here are some responses, again, completely unedited except for spelling corrections:
- Timing moves so you aren't buying too early, not getting shredded by HFTs front-running or running stops.
- Lack of volatility due to incessant money printing and the FED day trading the markets to hold indexes up
- Keeping up with the market. If not 100% in the market, chasing it was tough. Risk Mgmt. was out the window in 20177. Hope, it comes back in 2018.
- Keeping emotions out of the process
- Sizing up my trades and letting them run a little longer
- Keeping up with technological advances and tax
- Staying in stocks/funds in an overvalued market
- Staying with the trend (not reading copious amounts of newsletters crying out that the stock market is overbought because of indicator readings….)
- Staying Long when the market is at nose bleed territory
- Too many ETF's hurts individual stock picking
So what are you worried about? Post a comment below and let us know!