T3’s Take 3: Booming Oil Revs Up the Bulls
1) Crude Oil Booms on Production Cut Hopes
Oil prices rose for the third straight day as traders continue to hope for a production cut at the September OPEC meeting.
This morning, Russian news agency Interfax reported that OPEC may not in fact make a cut, which caused a small dip that was very quickly bought, implying that traders really do believe a cut is coming.
WTI crude rose 3.0% to $45.83, while the S&P Energy ETF (XLE) rose 0.8%, making it the best performing major sector ETF.
Oil service stocks and energy master limited partnerships also performed well.
2) Oil Inspiration
Inspired by crude oil’s hard bounce, the S&P 500 made another all-time high today at 2193.81 before finishing at 2190.15, up 0.3% on the day.
While this was the 26th straight trading day without a 1% move in the index, there were some very positive signs below the surface.
The biotechnology sector put in a big gain today, and the Russell 2000significantly outperformed the S&P.
We also saw notable strength in cybersecurity software, regional banks, and transports.
This indicates that even with equity markets at record highs, traders are still very comfortable putting on risk.
3) More Weak Economic Numbers
Post-Brexit, one pleasant surprise we’ve seen has been a pretty nice streak of positive economic data surprises.
But starting with the 7/29 GDP report, we’ve seen quite a few lousy reports, culminating in today’s Empire Manufacturing miss.
Individual economic data points are little more than noise. The trend is far more important.
Look at this chart of the Citi US Economic Surprise Index — it is definitely sliding:
For now, the weak data is being ignored.
But I wonder if that changes with the avalanche of big reports coming over the next 2 days (Housing Starts, Building Permits, CPI, Industrial Production, etc.).
If they’re mostly bad, the market may start caring about the numbers. In the meantime, why argue?
P.S. Don't forget to sign up for Dave Green's FREE trading webinar.
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Housing Starts (Jul): exp. 1180k, prior 1189k
08:30 Housing Starts MoM (Jul): exp. -0.80%, prior 4.80%
08:30 Building Permits (Jul): exp. 1160k, prior 1153k
08:30 Building Permits MoM (Jul): exp. 0.60%, prior 1.50%
08:30 CPI MoM (Jul): exp. 0.00%, prior 0.20%
08:30 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Jul): exp. 0.20%, prior 0.20%
08:30 CPI YoY (Jul): exp. 0.90%, prior 1.00%
08:30 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Jul): exp. 2.30%, prior 2.30%
08:30 CPI Index NSA (Jul): exp. 240.805, prior 241.038
08:30 CPI Core Index SA (Jul): exp. 247.872, prior 247.495
08:30 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (Jul): prior 1.20%
09:15 Industrial Production MoM (Jul): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.60%
09:15 Capacity Utilization (Jul): exp. 75.60%, prior 75.40%
09:15 Manufacturing (SIC) Production (Jul): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.40%
12:30 Fed's Lockhart Speaks to Rotary Club of Knoxville
Global Economics
00:30 JPY Industrial Production
09:00 CAD Existing Home Sales
16:30 NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speaks in Tauranga
21:30 AUD RBA Aug. Meeting Minutes
Earnings
Before Open:
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
Dick's Sporting Goods (D
TJX (TJX)
After Close:
Cree (CREE)
Jack Henry JKHY)
Urban Outfitters (URBN)