The Morning Hammer: Is Today the Day for a Real Move?

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World markers are a little shaky following yesterday's late-day selloff in the S&P 500, and hawkish comments from Fed officials.

However, Japan is up after the yen took a little break, which is helping shares of exporters.

UK jobless claims were better-than-expected in July, while Singapore's exports dropped on weak orders from China, Indonesia, and the US.

Crude oil is down this morning after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 1 million barrel drop in US crude inventories. This was a bigger reduction than expected, but gasoline supplies were up 2.2 million barrels, raising concerns about a glut.

The EIA reports its inventory numbers at 10:30 a.m. ET so keep an eye out.

Target (TGT) cut its annual guidance due to weak sales, and Lowe's (LOW) reported a miss. This is disappointing as we're coming off a couple days of positive retail stock news.

On the deal front, Bloomberg is reporting that United Bankshares (UBSI) is in talks to acquire Cardinal Financial (CNFL).

SPX and NDX futures are as flat as an ironing board, so the holding pattern continues in the early going.

However, yesterday I reiterated my view that the VIX indeed hit a bottom last week, and today we could see vol continue to pick up.

Aside from the important crude oil inventories at 10:30 a.m., we've got FOMC minutes hitting the tape at 2:00 p.m.

Right now, traders are pricing in a 51% probability of a December rate hike, which means the market is split right down the middle.

So there's a chance that at least half the market comes away disappointed, which could be a catalyst for movement.

The regional banks (KRE) could be especially big movers, and of course, the dollar and gold will be in play.

Yesterday, NY Fed President Dudley (voting member) said a rate hike could come next month, so some folks are thinking that's on the table.

But the big problem with trying to game the Fed is that you not only have to predict the timing of policy actions, but the wording of commentary.

Markets can make huge moves on the inclusion or exclusion of a few words, so you can drive yourself batty trying to make sense of it all, ESPECIALLY since the Fed always has the back door of “data dependency.”