There Are More Bears Than Bulls Out in the Wild

Permabulls always say everyone's bearish.

And permabears always say everyone's bullish.

Neither side provides evidence for their views.

So let's see how traders are feeling into today's inauguration:

1) VIX Spread – Bullish

The 3-month VIX spread is at +4.51, which indicates traders are pricing in very low near-term volatility.

This means traders are bullish.

2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral

The Fear & Greed Index is at 49.

F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral.

So we're right in the middle.

3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish

The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 32.8% of individual investors are bullish, which is below the long-term average of 38.5%.

4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bearish

The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio is at 0.71 with a 3-day moving average of 0.74. This indicates higher-than-average bearishness.

5) ISE Sentiment – Bearish

The ISE Sentiment Index is at just 79 (79 calls for every 100 puts) this morning – which is a bearish reading. And the 10-day moving average is 81.3.

This also indicates bearish sentiment.

Conclusion

Out of 5 sentiment indicators, we have 1 bullish, 1 neutral, and 3 bearish.

I've been hearing a lot of chatter about how bullish the crowd is.

But if anything, traders are leaning against the market, hoping for a fall.