Where is the stock market going in 2018?
Will Bitcoin beat the S&P 500?
Is it time to dump tech stocks and get into banks?
These are the types of questions we're asking ourselves as we close out 2017.
So let's go through the results of our survey asking readers for their 2018 outlooks.
Please keep in mind that this is not a scientific survey, so please take all the findings with a grain of salt.
72.6% of respondents said the S&P will finish up in 2018.
No shocker there, considering that the market's been ripping up in a straight line all year.
38.4% of respondents said tech will be the #1 sector in 2018.
Again, that's no shocker. Besides Bitcoin and other crypto currencies, technology stocks have been the #1 place to be since President Trump's 2016 election.
Traders must believe all the “Amazon is taking over the world” headlines, because respondents are very bearish on retail.
27.8% of respondents believe will retail will perform worst, followed by utilities at 25%.
Respondents are most bullish on stocks, with 38.9% saying stocks will be the best-performing asset class for 2018.
Now here's where the survey gets interesting.
Respondents are bullish on what's been working: stocks in general, tech stocks in particular, and Bitcoin and other crypto currencies.
But 50% expect a spike in the VIX to over 40.
Not that traders were necessarily cognizant of the specific numbers, but the VIX hasn't been over 40 since the October 24, 2015 flash crash — over 2 years ago.
The S&P 500 has had only 1 10% down day in history — October 19, 1987 a.k.a Black Monday.
Yet 55.7% of respondents said the S&P 500 will have a 10% down day in 2018:
But in keeping with traders' generally bullish tone, just 29.6% expect a bear market in 2018, defined as a 20% drop off the highs:
For this question, we're simply going to post some of the more interesting responses, completely unedited aside from spelling corrrections:
Traders seem most concerned with domestic politics and international unrest.
In particular, there is a good deal of worry about some kind of Trump-related surprise.
Traders seem most worried about the Fed, getting picked off by HFT's/algos, and trading through what feels like an extended market.
Here are some responses, again, completely unedited except for spelling corrections:
So what are you worried about? Post a comment below and let us know!