Yes, Jensen Huang Had to Go
Now that was an interesting week. We had a hot CPI report. Some big AI earnings reports. And oh yeah, Nvidia’s (NVDA) Jensen Huang was forced out after the disclosure of multiple extramarital affairs. Including one with an alleged Chinese spy. Skip Ahead! Yes, Jensen Huang Had to GoLumentum Jinxed UsApple May Be the Winner of This Nvidia MessIt’s Make or Break Time for AIThis Market Is Still Short on JoyRate Hike Expectations – Subject to Change, As Always Yes, Jensen Huang Had to GoI was wrong about Nvidia (NVDA). I thought they’d find a way to keep Jensen Huang. But with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, it’s obvious you can’t have a reckless casanova running one of the most powerful tech companies on Earth. Yes, it’s very stupid to have relationships with subordinates. Duh. That shows awful judgement. But let’s talk about this potential spy situation. It’s been alleged that Alice Huang, one of Jensen’s affair partners, may be a spy for China. And there’s two big, big problems with that. The first is obvious. A spy can steal secrets. But a spy can also blackmail. Just one intelligence agent with a hidden camera could collect some very damaging information. Who knows how much damage could be done? Not only to Nvidia, but to US national security. We can’t be worried about Jensen being compromised. By the way, I bet there’s a wild bull market in private investigation work in the Bay Area right now.Lumentum Jinxed UsThis headline about optics/photonics leader Lumentum (LITE) still haunts me: Because where does the next big surprise come from when you’re looking at a 3-year sellout? The biggest challenge with the AI boom is investors fearing “this is as good as it gets.” That’s when people stop buying. So in October, when Lumentum announced they were sold out until 2029, I half-jokingly said to myself “they just jinxed the whole AI trade.” Not long after, Marvell (MRVL) announced it was acquiring Lumentum, tanking both stocks. Many folks asked an obvious question. If Lumentum is so confident about the future, why would it sell now? And now I’m wondering if I should chuck my Marvell stock.Apple May Be the Winner of This Nvidia MessApple (AAPL) has been in a suspiciously smooth uptrend:I have a theory. Take this with a grain of salt because there are some big “ifs” here, and I’m long Apple. There is a risk of disruption to the AI spending boom because Nvidia is coming under a lot of scrutiny from the US government. On Thursday, Democrats opened an inquiry related to Nvidia’s chip sales to China. Apple has been aggressively raising prices because of storage and memory prices. Anything that slows down the pace of AI infrastructure buildouts (like government meddling) could impact storage/memory prices. If the market believes those prices are coming down, people will start to assume Apple’s margins will explode. In fact, if we see storage and memory prices drop hard, Apple could probably lower product pricing and still boost margins. Again, there are a lot of “ifs” involved in this theory. Like, if AI falls apart, it could take the whole economy with it.It’s Make or Break Time for AIOutside of Jensen Huang’s flameout, it was a solid week for AI. We saw strong earnings from CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS), Cisco (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Foxconn. But things are about to get way more interesting. On Tuesday, Nvidia reports earnings and the market desperately wants to hear 3 things: 1) Demand has not been impacted by Jensen Huang’s departure2) We see no credit problems amid our customer base3) Trade law was not violated Because the market is looking for excuses to dump this stock. Then on Wednesday, AI storage monster and Nvidia partner Everpure (P) reports earnings. We want indications that demand is not slowing. And then on Thursday, Anthropic (ANT) has its oversubscribed IPO. Odds are it’s going to pop. But does it suck capital away from the rest of the market? We’re about to see. Here’s the full calendar:This Market Is Still Short on JoyThe latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 30.8% of investors are bullish.That’s below the long-term average of 37.5%. And bearish sentiment is at 51.4%, a 2-month high. Plus, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at just 38/100, indicating Moderate Fear.So this market is still short on joyous participants. Something that should be obvious at this point.Rate Hike Expectations – Subject to Change, As AlwaysThe next FOMC meeting is December 9, and the market is looking for higher rates, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. The market is pricing in a 91.7% chance of a 25 bp rate hike, and an 8.3% chance of a 50 bp hike.BTW, are you curious about which trading style works for you? Try this now.
Continue Reading -->A Disturbing Narrative Is Forming
Speculation can be one of the most personally rewarding businesses to undertake. The possibility of financial reward is the reason every one of us gets into this game initially, but as skills progress and hobby transitions into profession, the realization that there is no better intellectual pursuit for an inquisitive mind gradually becomes apparent with time. The financial reward becomes merely a means to an end – to keep playing the game to occupy the mind. We all know the importance of a healthy body, but we tend to overlook the importance of exercise for the mind. Winning in this, the greatest of games, strengthens the faculties of the mind like competing in an Ironman contest strengthens the muscles of the body. Part of my “training regimen” for speculation is reading or listening to as many other viewpoints from smart and rich people as I can. Podcasts can be a great way to learn from the smartest traders out there, but I’ve noticed an alarming trend develop in this new alternative media. Podcasts and YouTube channels that had been a refreshing dose of reality (as opposed to the main stream media outlets that were increasingly becoming a hinderance to developing knowledge) as little as even a few years ago, are now becoming almost as bad as the mainstream media outlets they displaced. The growth arc of the podcasting business has gone from its infancy to maturity in record speed. We used to be able to find new, refreshing voices and interesting viewpoints that we couldn’t find anywhere else but in the podcasting space. As podcasting became a business in its own right, the best interviewers had to grow, and in order to grow, they had to get “bigger” guests who all sound the same because they come from the same stock of asset managers. Slowly, the entire alt media space has transformed into an echo chamber, and the resounding message they chant in unison seems to rhyme with, if not repeat, the same two diametric viewpoints we get from the mainstream media: either everything is under control, and there is no need to worry, or alternatively, that we are all doomed, and there is no hope… Listen carefully to any financial podcast or YouTube episode now, and I’m sure you’ll notice this two-choice menu offered to the listener/ viewer. We are being fed two and only two messages. Both of these are disempowering. They are selling either complacency or fear. Complacency makes us intellectually lazy. Fear makes us susceptible to manipulation. Both are poison to the mind of a speculator. Complacency and fear are like the junk food version of the real, unprocessed, whole food version of the true nature of speculation: the conviction to be either bullish or bearish. We are at all times either bullish or bearish. These are the only two inclinations that we must possess to know how to allocate our irreplaceable capital. Being bullish or bearish is not something that anyone else can convince you to be. To be a genuinely held conviction, it must originate from within your own mind. We can listen to other smart and rich people tell us how they think about reality to begin to form our own view, but those people are becoming increasingly scarce on alt media. Virtually every guest on a podcast is someone who makes their living not from the markets, but from gathering assets and charging a fee. These types of people can and do have some valuable insights, but at the end of the day, they are selling you a product- their mutual fund, ETF, or their investment advice. Their views will always be aligned with getting you to buy whatever they are selling. The true independent thought that winning in speculation requires cannot be provided by people selling you something. We’ve got to build conviction in the bull side or the bear side on our own to know when the time is right to place our capital at risk in the market. As for me, I’m bearish on stocks. I have worked very hard for almost two decades to build up my trading line to a size that now allows me to live off my winnings, and I’m very protective of my capital. I’m not rich enough to sit back and relax on the beach. I’ve got to continue to show up everyday, turn on my monitors, and decide for myself whether conditions are right to put my capital at risk. I don’t currently see enough of the setups that give me confidence that the market is in a low risk situation, and I’ve explained many times throughout these weekly notes all the signs I see that make me increasingly bearish. However, I’ve tried shorting this market with some wins and some losses that end up in a wash, so I don’t yet view the market as vulnerable to make shorting an appealing position. Indeed, there are few, if any, appealing positions to take in the market right now. Cash is still by far my largest position. It’s the only asset I have confidence in. I’ve taken some shots in a few hard asset names from last week’s note that appear to be nearing a possible wash out low, but only time will tell if this is the low, so I’m keeping every long very small in size. Not so small that I can’t feel how the position is working, but small enough to stay in it as it’s working through rallies and natural declines within the nascent uptrend. The trick is to buy large enough that I can feel any negative feedback when it’s not working, but small enough to avoid the eagerness to take gains prematurely. This will remain my strategy for participating in this market until we get to the next bull phase. That bull phase will come; it always does. And that moment will be the time to aggressively get long the leading group. Right now, the leaders
Continue Reading -->Nvidia Flushed. AMD Ripped. David Traded Both.
Jensen Huang is out at Nvidia (NVDA). The stock flushed on the news, and David Prince was ready for it: For days, David kept the Inner Circle away from Nvidia while the scandal played out. The market was too complacent, he said, and the real opportunity wouldn’t come until the CEO announcement brought max fear. His levels were mapped out in advance at $153 and $145. When the news hit, he started buying at $153, got bigger near $149, and sold the bounce around $160 for 11 to 12 points. He had no plan to hold it. With Senate hearings and investigations ahead, he expects a cloud over the stock for a long time. The Other Side of the Trade: Shorting AMD When money leaves Nvidia, it has to go somewhere, and David figured about 90% of it would rotate into Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). AMD ripped, and he got aggressively short into $574. As Nvidia bounced, AMD gave it all back and briefly went red. That was another 20 points. What’s Next for Nvidia David sees NVDA stuck in a $150 to $180 range for a while, with a possible revisit of $150 or $145. If the investigations show sensitive information was actually passed, another wave of max fear could take it to the low $130s. At next Tuesday’s earnings, as long as guidance holds, the numbers matter less than the story: how deep the bench is, who the next CEO might be, and why the roadmap keeps Nvidia years ahead. It’s still an amazing company trading cheap. With a two- to three-year outlook, David isn’t worried. But if Nvidia is all you think about, consider what it’s costing you in other opportunities. AMD Is the Dip to Buy David calls AMD a no-brainer and the dominant beneficiary of Nvidia’s mess: 21-day moving average (~$520): A gift if the stock pulls back this far. 50-day moving average (~$550): The next support level to watch. Low $500s: He doesn’t expect AMD to trade below here anytime soon. Other chip names that could take market share include Marvell (MRVL), Broadcom (AVGO), Amazon’s Trainium, and Alphabet’s TPUs. If you want David’s next trade in real time, join the team here.
Continue Reading -->Forget Anthropic. I Want Bitcoin.
Sami Abusaad looked at the Anthropic (ANT) IPO and said… “meh.” This is what he really likes: You can see Sami’s full video below: Two days ago, people thought CoreWeave (CRWV) was going out of business. Now it’s skyrocketing after earnings, and Sami Abusaad shares his thoughts on what’s next. Samiy recaps his massive gains across leveraged semiconductor and index plays—including SOXL, TQQQ, and TNA—while explaining why he locked in profits and hedged today’s short-term intraday top. The duo dives deep into the CoreWeave gap, the health of the SMH, and why the recent tech volatility is a shakeout, not a long-term top. They also weigh in on the upcoming Anthropic IPO, comparing its tricky valuation range ($70–$78) to the massive SpaceX debut, and examine whether AI fatigue is creeping into investor sentiment. Finally, Sami highlights key inflection points across crypto and commodities, breaking down Bitcoin’s (BTC) weekly buy setup at the rising 20-period moving average, relative strength in gold miners (GDX, RGLD), and fresh trade setups in ADMA, BOOM, RDDT, and NFLX.
Continue Reading -->Why Nvidia Is in Trouble
The CPI came in hot and Nvidia (NVDA) is under fire for the Jensen Huang infidelity scandal. JR Romero predicted the CPI outcome. And he thinks Nvidia is in trouble: We go over: Why the CPI report is not the end of the world Why CoreWeave (CRWV) is an absolute mess, and eventually going to zero The reason Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang may be in big trouble What to watch for the rest of the week The trading books JR is recommending JR’s favorite ideas right now To help our community navigate the action, we are opening up access to our trading rooms for a limited time, where we cover everything from pre-market analysis to live trade execution. Sign up here.
Continue Reading -->This Horrible Stock Looks Awesome
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) is one of the worst stocks in the market. As of last week’s low, it was down 80% from its post-IPO highs. Sami Abusaad likes it: Despite chaos int he semiconductors and small caps, Sami found plenty of setups. Including oversold semiconductor names like Intel (INTC) and Cerebras Systems (CBRS), which have high-probability counter-trend bounce potential as they test key moving averages. Top Long Plays: Gold Miners and Earnings Momentum Gold miners represent the absolute strongest pocket of relative strength in the entire market. Quality names like Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Equinox Gold (EQX) present textbook long entries off constructive consolidations, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) primed for continuation above recent highs. Beyond gold, ADMA Biologics (ADMA) is a prime bullish watch after printing a tight inside narrow-range bar directly following a Tier 1 professional earnings gap. Meanwhile, oversold semiconductor names like Intel (INTC) and Cerebras Systems (CBRS) offer high-probability counter-trend bounce potential as they test significant multi-timeframe moving averages. And with indices like the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaching double-bottom support, short positions align directly with overarching market weakness: Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): A clean breakdown trigger slipping below multi-day base support. Huntington Bancshares (HBAN): A textbook daily sell setup showing early signs of a macro top on the monthly chart. Aptiv (APTV): A 1-2-3 bearish continuation pattern positioned to target lower lows. So if you need actionable ideas now, Sami’s your guy.
Continue Reading -->The Midterms Have Changed Nothing In The Market
The day after the midterms saw a ferocious rally. But the question I was asking myself while watching stock prices rip higher on Wednesday was this: what exactly has this new information changed? The answer my mind kept circulating back to was that precisely nothing has changed the situation. The current situation is that many of the stocks in the market are weak and lack a constructive price structure. The only thing that matters in determining if we have a low risk situation that is conducive to making money is the existence of many stocks in good setups. We are simply not seeing a plethora of stocks setting up with the price structure I described in last week’s note. However, there are selective examples of this setup that are paying off. One of them is Cricut, CRCT. I mentioned CRCT a month ago. If you go back to the chart posted in the note from Oct 2, 2026, you can see the price structure setup I described last week fully formed in the stock and the buy signal at about $6. This week was the payoff for this stock. Even while playing defense, there are still opportunities for big wins with small positions. I didn’t get all the 50% gain of this move, but I am participating in the upside with very small positions. There’s no reason to still be long this stock after a move like this, by the way. CRCT’s big move: Participating in a small way in big moves is about all I can do to keep my account near all time highs as I wait for a trend to develop. The market will trend eventually, but unfortunately, I think the next trend will be down. The market is trading in a range, and all ranges are defined by either distribution of stock or accumulation of stock as supply and demand are in equilibrium. Equilibrium is a state that can’t last forever. Eventually, equilibrium is affected by an outside force, and disequilibrium becomes the new condition. While in a state of disequilibrium, prices can trend until a new equilibrium between supply and demand is reached. The question traders must be asking right now is whether this range I’ve described is strong hands accumulating stock from weak hands, or strong hands distributing stock to weak hands. Given the price action I’m seeing in the semiconductor stocks, the leaders of this current market, I’ve got to assume that this range is strong hands distributing stock. If you’ve been following my weekly notes, you were aware of the danger in the semis since Oct 15 and what the semis represented to the AI narrative. Big, institutional money knows that without the AI buildout, our economy would be clearly in the contraction phase. The semiconductors are telling us that the best phase of the AI buildout is behind us. Without the leadership of the semiconductor stocks, this market has no leadership to rally higher out of this range. Bull markets need leadership, a group of stocks that are being bought and can rally even on bad news. The leaders are like generals charging into battle, and the rest of the stocks in the market are like the troops that are inspired by their general’s courage and charge into battle along side their general. Think about Russell Crowe’s character, Maximus, in Gladiator. Maximus’ confidence in battle and his troops inspiration in the opening battle scene exemplify this market phenomenon perfectly. The semis were our leadership, and now they are busted. Market leadership will be defined by a group of stocks in a sector that are outperforming the weakness and setting up with the price and volume structure I described last week. Without that setup proliferating inside a specific sector, traders won’t know which stocks to key in on as the leadership to watch. Owning the leading names in a market is the key to winning, and in markets like this, I focus intently on trying to identify the leaders out of market corrections. The medicine stocks are the closest group that is starting to look like it has the potential to be that next leadership, but we will have to see how they respond when the market weakens. JNJ, MRK, LLY, BIIB, TEVA, and AMGN all show that price structure I like. They have the highest potential to be the leaders in the next market trend. What I’m looking for in order to know for certain if these medicine stocks will be the leaders is a decline out of this range in the SPX, and then I want to see these medicine stocks firm or even rally in the weakness. That’s the sure sign that they will be the go to names for longs. When the SPX eventually stabilizes, these stocks would likely be the names that charge the hardest out of the gate if they manage to hold their constructive price structures until then. Then, and only then, will I know that I will have the lowest risk and the highest probability of winning by holding concentrated positions in these names. As I’ve said before, in a market like this, you’ve got to decide if you are bullish or bearish and put on a position. As for me, I’m still bearish. I’ve got lots of cash, at about 75% of my account, and I’m still holding a small short position in DIA. My longs are very selective in names that are in good setups, or assets that I want to own even if the market were to shut down for several months as it did when WWI kicked off in 1914. Assets in that camp that I own are gold miners, pipelines, and timberland. I’m also looking at uranium miners to add to that group of long term assets. CCJ is washing out, and this may be the final give up phase underneath $70. Small, trial buys under $70 will either pan out, and I will add on the way
Continue Reading -->AI: Everything Just Changed
Traders are freaking out over the AI stock meltdown. JR Romero calmly breaks down the situation, and shares what stocks he bought today: (FYI – at the end of the video, JR shares a hilarious story about the time he met the legendary Patrick Stewart) AI stocks are reporting huge earnings. Marvell (MRVL) and Lumentum (LITE) are merging. But the Democrat takeover of the House and Senate has the market on edge. Despite a string of strong earnings reports across the industry, major players like Nvidia (NVDA) Micron (MU), and SanDisk (SNDK) are trading at wildly low valuations. This disconnect between performance and share price suggests a broader shift in investor sentiment. It doesn’t help that worries about credit markets are again. In our latest discussion, JR Romero provides a deep dive into the charts and technical indicators for these key names. He breaks down why these stocks are struggling to find support even after blockbuster earnings numbers. Rather than relying on hype, investors need to look for specific entry and exit levels to manage risk effectively in this environment. As we look ahead, the strategy remains the same: focus on price action over news cycles. Whether you are a day trader looking for quick moves in momentum stocks or a swing trader targeting longer-term trends, having a disciplined game plan is essential. To help our community navigate this, we are opening up access to our trading rooms for a limited time, where we cover everything from pre-market analysis to live trade execution. Sign up here.
Continue Reading -->Nike: How Bottoms Happen
Major brand-name stocks often bottom when sentiment gets extremely negative. You can see this with Nike (NKE): When everyone was yelling “Go Woke, Go Broke” at Nike… smart traders were buying the stock. And it’s up huge! During severe downturns, everyone wants to run away. But market dynamics frequently prove a contrarian rule: bad news sets bottoms, while good news sets tops. When sentiment reaches peak euphoria and universal praise, a stock is often topping out. Sami Abusaad elaborates on market/stock bottoms in this video: And on the flip side, when negative commentary dominates and an asset faces widespread criticism, selling tends to die out sooner than expected. This bottoming process typically unfolds after sharp gap-downs driven by weak earnings reports or narrative headwinds. When widespread capitulation occurs (fueled by poor financial results or ugly headlines) panic pushes prices to extremes. And despair often means the darkness is coming to an end. Holding through the initial volatility of a steep drop requires discipline, but entering when pessimism peaks provides a significant structural edge. Once the bad news is fully absorbed and reflected in the price, you see a massive spike higher. Sometimes out of nowhere.
Continue Reading -->SpaceX & Tesla: Buy the Dip?
It’s a good day for the Democrats, who won control of Congress and the Senate in the mid-term elections. It’s not a good day for Elon Musk because SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla’s (TSLA) stock are down. Is it time to buy? Sami shares his updated outlook: The stock market can be crazy, jumping around based on the latest news and elections. Instead of getting caught up in the hype, it’s usually better to just look at the charts. The recent wild price swings are a great reminder to trust what a stock is actually doing, not just the stories we hear on TV or online. Bad news can be a buying opportunity. Good news sometimes happen right before a stock drops big. Take SpaceX and Tesla, for example. They are always in the news, but the charts don’t look so hot right now. SpaceX keeps trying to rally but fails, dropping below important support levels after soaring too high earlier this year. It’s just not a good time to buy it. Tesla is still in a long-term uptrend, but its current chart is super messy and choppy. There’s just no reason to hit the buy button. On the flip side, crypto is looking really strong, based on Sami’s analysis. Charts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are showing much better buy signals right now than the big tech companies. There are also a few good setups popping up in individual stocks like Reddit (RDDT), Nike (NKE), and Spotify. But overall, it pays to be patient with the broader market and wait for things to settle down. A big trap right now is trying to “bottom fish”—guessing when beaten-down tech stocks have finally stopped falling. Companies like Marvel (MRVL) and Intel (INTC) have dropped a ton. But a stock is never good just because it’s down. Unless you see true exhaustion of sellers, which doesn’t happen when a stock just keeps opening lower day after day, it’s super risky to buy. The smart move is to wait for a real tradable bottom. Finally, there’s a funny psychological rule about trading: if everyone is bragging about a winning trade, it’s probably time to sell. It’s almost like jinxing yourself. When a whole group of people is cheering about a stock going up, it usually means there’s no one left to buy. With no new buyers left to push the price higher, the stock runs out of gas and falls apart. The headlines and how much you like a company don’t matter if the chart says otherwise. Ignore the noise, avoid falling knives, and wait for clear, simple signals before putting your money to work. Want Sami’s next big idea? Try 30 days of the Number Ones Newsletter for just $49 and get it tomorrow morning. Exact entry/exit parameters included. Zero guessing.
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