10 Things You Need to Know – Goodbye Rate Cuts Edition!
What a week! We just saw: Markets end Q2 on a positive note, showing no fear of the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline A better-than-expected jobs report The US move closer to approving President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill A US-Vietnam trade deal Canada make a major concession to Trump with its immigration bill A sudden increase in bullishness among investors And a whole lot more. So let’s go over the 10 Things You Absolutely Need to Know Right Now – GOODBYE RATE CUTS EDITION. 1. Rate Cut Odds Slip Following Friday’s strong nonfarm payrolls report, which featured a lower-than-expected wage growth number, traders took a July rate cut off the table. The CME’s FedWatch tool implies a 6.7% chance of a July rate cut, down from 23.8% yesterday. September odds are starting to slip as well. The market is pricing in a 67.4% chance of a rate cut by September, down from 71.9% yesterday, and from 74.3% last week. So let’s ask a big question: 2. Why Is President Trump Attacking Jerome Powell? President Trump keeps tossing verbal bombs at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and you might be wondering why. It’s a simple game. Assume we don’t get rate cuts, and the economy and financial markets crash. Trump assigns Powell the blame. If we do get rate cuts, the odds favor ongoing strength — even with a recession. According to Hartford Funds Research, cited by Bankrate The Hartford team reviewed 22 occasions from 1929 to 2019 when the Fed first cut rates and how stocks, bonds and cash performed over the subsequent 12 months. The after-inflation return of stocks averaged 11 percent, but returns diverged when the cut was associated with a recession. When the rate cut occurred and no recession took place, stocks averaged returns of 17 percent in the following year. But even when a recession took place, stocks were still 8 percent higher. 3. Traders Finally Turn Bullish… at an Inconvenient Time? The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.0% of investors are bullish. This is well off the 19.1% lows from earlier this year. And it’s the first above-average bullish reading since January 30, 2025. Right into the July 9 Trade Deadline. Is that a bad thing? We’ll see. Interestingly enough… 4. Q2 Earnings Expectations Are Weird Factset says that 110 S&P 500 companies issued guidance for the second quarter, with 59 of them being positive. This is actually well above the 5 and 10-year averages. So guidance was strong in the face of big fears over trade and the economy. Meanwhile, earnings expectations are low. Which is GREAT news. Analysts predict 5.0% Q2 earnings growth – the lowest since Q4 2023. This is down from 9.4% on March 31. And why is this great news? Because there is plenty of room for companies to beat. Which is exactly what happened in Q1. Earnings grew 13.6% in Q1, which blew away estimates. 5. The Ultimate Trump Trade Rages On We’ve talked a lot about the huge gains in brokerage stocks that benefit from increased trading volumes. They are BOOMING this year: Robinhood (HOOD): +150% Coinbase (COIN) +43% Interactive Brokers (IBKR): +31% Webull (BULL) +22% $SPY is up just 7%. Why is this industry doing so well? Because the environment is perfect. Markets are volatile but trending higher, and President Trump ensures heavy news flow. All good for trading volumes – and these stocks. But what’s not good for these stocks? Next week’s calendar: 6. Snoozefest? What a sad, pathetic little calendar we have for next week: Yes, we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes and a couple of bond auctions. Maybe the big July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline will drive some action, but even that could be resolved soon. 7) Can We Talk About Bitcoin $200,000? Bitcoin is getting lots of attention because it’s flirting with key resistance around $110,000. So let’s ask a crazy question. Is Bitcoin headed to $200,000? JR Romero has an idea: 8. Small Caps Get a Start So far this month, IWM is beating SPY: 3 days of action do not make a trend. But it’s worth watching because SPY has more than doubled IWM’s performance over the last 10 years. That has to flip eventually. Right? Put it on the radar. 9) It’s Time to Write Your Trading Plan A trading plan can’t guarantee success. But a lack of planning guarantees your failure. So let Sami Abusaad take you through the process of writing a plan that sets you up for long-term success: 10) Happy Fourth of July! Don’t take the freedoms we have for granted. And watch the single best scene from Saving Private Ryan:
Continue Reading -->I Want This China Name BAD
Sami Abusaad is super bullish on China, as evidenced by his giant position in the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares (YINN). But now he’s targeting another China idea: Sami goes over: How the market took Sami by surprise Friday The specific levels that could cause SPY and QQQ to break down The importance of Friday’s lows Why the overall buyish should be bullish The China name he wants to get in next after YINN Why he is targeting UnitedHealth (UNH) again 3 names he wants to short And MORE!
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Queen Cathie Wood Edition!
What a week! Here’s what happened: President Trump cyber-bullied Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding faster rate cuts The US and China signed a trade deal allowing rare earth exports from China and an easing of US tech restrictions The S&P and Nasdaq slammed the bulls with a move to all-time highs Inflation showed continued signs of easing The US dollar dumped Uranium soared as nuclear power comes back en vogue Gold dropped like a rock, and yes, it is a rock Cathie Wood’s ARKK ETF showed continued dominance And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now – Queen Cathie Wood Edition: 1. Tech Led Us to Record Highs The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time highs this week as tech stocks took center stage. 35 S&P names, including NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Broadcom (AVGO), Oracle (ORCL), and Netflix Inc. (NFLX), and Palantir (PLTR), hit record highs. As of Friday afternoon, QQQ was up 7.7% on the year: And if we have to crown a Queen… it’s Cathie Wood: 2. ARKK Is Dominating! Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is up nearly 24% this year, crushing the major indices: ARKK has made a stunning comeback off the April lows thanks to hefty positions in winners like: Coinbase (COIN) Tesla (TSLA) Roku (ROKU) Roblox (RBLX) Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Yes, Circle is off its highs… but it’s still up huge from its January 5 IPO. Well done Cathie! But even with all the high-flying stock action… 3. Investors Don’t Trust This Market The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 35.1% of investors are bullish. This is off the lows from earlier this year. But it’s below the long-term bullish average of 37.5%. We haven’t had an above-average bullish reading since January 29, when 41% of investors are bullish. Rallies are built on doubt, and blow-off tops are driven by a euphoric mood. There are few signs of either. 4. Homebuilders Might Be Sending Smoke Signals Last week, we pointed out the mystery in homebuilding stocks. Lots of folks are talking about soft housing demand and growing supply. But the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) popped almost 5% this week. Could markets be sniffing out rate cuts already? It’s hard to say. President Trump’s been loud and clear that he wants lower rates, and has been ranting and raving about Fed Chair Powell’s measured approach. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump may name the next Fed Chair early to undermine Powell. So what’s the market saying about rates near-term? 5. July Rate Cut? Outlook Not So Good As of Friday afternoon, the CME’s FedWatch Tool was pricing in an 18.6% chance of a July rate cut: The outlook for the September Fed meeting is different. The market is pricing in a 77% chance of 25 bps in cuts by then, and a 17% chance of 50 bps in cuts. But, the economy is humming along and equity markets remain strong, even in the face of the trade war. The real question may be “will the Fed step in BEFORE things break?” I can’t answer that question. Can you? 6. Next Week SHOULD Be Sleepy The market closes early Thursday and it shut on Friday for the July 4 holiday. So the calendar is light: Does that mean we’re in for a sleepy week? Maybe not. Remember, we don’t know what could happen with the trade war or Middle East conflict. The President has a knack for keeping things “interesting.” And volume could be light, exacerbating volatility. If you think you can take it easy into the holiday, you better think twice. 7. Uranium DID NOT Fill the Gap Last week, we pointed out that the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) looked like it might fill its June 16 gap up. It did not! On Monday, New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced plans to build a new nuclear facility. This comes amid the backdrop of a friendlier regulatory environment for the nuclear industry. The AI boom is also driving increased electricity demand, and companies like Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT) have struck nuclear power deals. The Washington Post reported that Former Texas Governor Rick Perry’s company Fermi America just laid out a proposal for four new nuclear reactors near Amarillo. The result: URA is now up 42% YTD, crushing every major ETF, including ARKK, which we discussed earlier. 8. Super Micro’s Short Squeeze Is Epic Last weekend, our buddy Sami Abusaad called Super Micro (SMCI) “trashy.” He also said the stock looked great, and that it could hit $65: SMCI opened Monday morning at $43.47 and fell to $40.77. Now it’s at $47+. What’s driving the stock? Well, tech stocks and AI names have been rocketing higher. And SMCI’s short interest is 16.2%, the third highest of any stock in the S&P 500 Index: Keep it on the radar. 9. Gold Has Been Dropping Like the Rock That It Is I almost wrote “gold is dropping like a rock.” And then I realized gold is a rock. Whatever. It’s been in absolute free fall thanks to improving US-China trade relations and an easing of Middle East tensions. Given how far gold’s come, it could have a long ride down if good news keeps coming. 10. You Can Master the 20 Day Moving Average NOW Sami Abusaad is an amazing trader. Why? Because he keeps things simple, with 2 indicators and nothing else. not even volume. Learn about his favorite one, the 20 day moving average, now. And stop missing the biggest moves in the market:
Continue Reading -->$CRCL: Where David Prince Is a Buyer Again + Other Names He Likes
Circle (CRCL) has been on an incredible run since its IPO three weeks ago. David Prince and the Inner Circle VTF® have been trading the name on both the short and long side this week. David discusses where he would be a buyer again and where this stock is headed: David also covers: Why he’s still long Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Why he likes Cava (CAVA) as a longterm investment The other names he’s watching for pullbacks And more Sign up for David’s free weekly newsletter, The Pulse, here.
Continue Reading -->This Trashy Stock Could Go Up 40%+
Sami Abusaad has been very bullish – but the trend is starting to weaken. See what he means here: Sami goes over: The importance of the 20 and 200 day moving averages on the SPY daily chart Why IWM is key right now What could make Sami bullish all over again The importance of Monday’s action 4 ideas he likes right now A pharmaceutical name with a strong daily and weak monthly chart A “trashy” stock that could go up 40%+ 5 stocks that look set to drop hard And more!
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – SUPER SPEC SLOWDOWN EDITION!
What a week! Here’s what happened: The FOMC left rates unchanged President Trump demanded rate cuts… again FOMC board member Christopher Waller echoed Trump by saying we should get rate cuts as soon as July We got lousy economic data including misses on retail sales and industrial production There were shocking rallies in select growth stocks Super-speculative stocks slowed down The Israel-Iran conflict had the world on edge And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now: 1. The Super-Duper Spec Rally Is Slowing We fired up our scanner to look for stocks with these attributes: Revenues below $100 million Market Cap over $2.5 billion So forget about profits – these companies barely have any sales. The results were pretty wild. We came up with 23 stocks led by: NuScale Power (SMR): +167% Quantum Computing (QUBT): +142% D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): 107% (numbers are as of Friday June 20 at 1:06 am ET) And the average return this quarter is 47%. Yes, 47%. But over the last week, they are down an average of -0.2%. Just look at the right column in this table – there’s a lotta red in there. So if you’ve been waiting for a slowdown in the wild ones, it may be here. 2. Next Week Will Be a Doozy… Markets are supposed to be sleepy in summer… but look at next week’s calendar. It’s jam-packed: We have: Multiple Fed heads including Powell speaking Tons of key economic data reports including PCE Price Index, GDP, and Durable Goods Earnings from Fedex (FDX), Micron (MU), and Nike (NKE) And that’s on top of whatever headlines come out of the trade war and Middle East. 3. The Odds Don’t Favor a July Rate Cut… YET As of Friday afternoon, the CME’s FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a 14.5% probability of a July rate cut: So Trump and Waller’s calls for cuts aren’t making a dent… yet. If we get a wave of lousy economic data next week – especially a light PCE Price Index number – perhaps the odds start shifting. 4. CoreWeave Might Be the Most Crowded Short in the Market For weeks, we’ve yammered on Twitter/X about the Put Skew in CoreWeave (CRWV) options. As you can see on this options chain, the implied volatility on CoreWeave puts is basically double that of calls. So traders are paying way more for CoreWeave puts than calls. And what does that mean? Everyone is betting against CoreWeave. With so many people on one side of the trade, don’t be shocked if CoreWeave just keeps rallying: 5. Sentiment Remains Weak The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 33.2% of investors are bullish. This is off lows from earlier this year, as you can see on the chart: But it’s below the long-term bullish average of 37.5%. In fact, we haven’t had an above-average bullish reading since January 29, when 41% of investors were bullish. Let’s just remember that it’s awfully tricky to turn sentiment numbers into actionable information for our trades. But nonetheless, it’s a sign that many investors still distrust the market. And it’s healthy because it means there’s little euphoria in this market. 6. ARKK Is on FIRE Did you notice that Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is up 75% from the April lows? How’d this happen? Good old-fashioned stock picking. ARKK’s biggest positions include Tesla (TSLA), Coinbase (COIN), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), Roku (ROKU), and Tempus AI (TEM) — all of which are up huge off the April lows. And if we take a longer-term look, ARKK is +19% YTD and +56% over the last 12 months, crushing the SPY. Well done Cathie! 7. Gold Failed Last week we discussed the possibility of gold powering through $3,450 resistance. Did it happen? No. Gold saw profit-taking this week, even with high uncertainty around the Middle East and on trade. But with the way the world is going, it should be on your radar. And on a related note: 8. Uranium Might Fill the Gap The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) has been an absolute monster this year because of supply-demand dynamics, including AI driving growth for more nuclear power. URA gapped up on June 16 on President Trump’s executive order to support the domestic uranium industry. However, it’s now filling that gap: Let’s keep things in perspective. URA is up 38% this year, so profit taking shouldn’t surprise us. Still, uranium bulls don’t want it filling that gap. 9. Homebuilding Stocks Are a Mystery Is it time to go bottom fishing in homebuilding stocks? After all, housing demand is soft and supply is building. But then we look at this 5-year chart of SPY vs. the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB). And we find that the homebuilders are roughly on par with the overall market: It feels like there’s no edge here. Yes, these stocks are well off the highs, but they’re also not down so much as to be obvious bargains. Maybe we’ll get a signal from KB Homes (KBH), which reports earnings after the close Monday. 10. Candlesticks Can Fail You The T3 house was built on a foundation of technical analysis. Especially candlestick analysis. But JR Romero argues that candlesticks can fail you. Learn how and why in this extended lesson:
Continue Reading -->How I Size Options Positions Based on the #1 Question I Always Ask Myself
Editor’s Note: this article was originally sent to Power Plays Options Subscribers. We are publishing it here as a gift for the T3 Live community. One of the most common questions options traders have is “how big should I size my positions?” And that’s a good thing because position sizing is critical to your options trading results. Get it wrong, and be ready to see your account head to $0. Get it right, and you’ll be on the road to long-term success. So I wanted to give Power Plays Options subscribers a primer on how I think about sizing. The #1 Question I Ask Myself I use options because they offer high upside potential with fixed downside risk. Note: some options strategies like shorting naked calls carry theoretically unlimited downside risk, but Power Plays Options does not use those strategies. When I put an options trade on, I ask myself “what am I willing to lose?” Yes, I want to make money. But focusing on what I can lose stops me from getting carried away when I have a strong opinion on a stock or ETF. For example, in early June, I was very bullish on IWM, and we had a nice trade on IWM calls. But even though I liked IWM, I wasn’t willing to risk $100,000 on an options position. Because sometimes, no matter how hard we work and prepare, things don’t go our way. How I Size Options Positions Generally speaking, I’m willing to risk 2-3% of my options account on an individual idea. So on a $100,000 account, I’d put $2,000 to $3,000 into each trade. This way, if I take a few losses in a row, my overall account won’t be depleted. If I was risking 10% of my account per trade and had 3-4 straight losses, that would deplete 2 things: Account Capital: When you lose 30%, you have to gain 43% to get to breakeven. And if you lose 50%, you have to double your account to get back to where you were. Psychological Capital: Major drawdowns hurt your confidence and ability to make good decisions. You may be tempted to revenge trade, which would probably cost you even more money. At the same time, I’m looking to gain over 100%+ on each options trade. So as long as I maintain a decent batting average, my P&L has the potential to move up nicely. Position Sizing for New Traders If you’re new to Power Plays Options, I want you to start small – even if you’re an experienced pro with a $1 million+ account. I said above that I’m willing to risk 2-3% of my options account on an individual idea. But I may go even smaller if I’m trying out a new strategy, or working with a stock I don’t know particularly well. It’s okay to buy just one option contract while you get your feet wet. Buying multiple contracts gives you more flexibility for taking partial profits. But if you take a long-term view of your trading (which I hope you do), it’s better to start small and gradually take more risk as you feel comfortable. Starting small also helps you figure out your psychological limits. If risking 3% on a trade keeps you up at night, then you know it’s too much for you. And if you risk so little that you don’t even care about a trade, then you’re going too small. It might take you a little time to figure out the right balance for you. When Winning Is a Bad Thing Sometimes, the worst thing that can happen to a trader is making too much money too fast. Yes, it sounds counterintuitive. But imagine you have a $50,000 account. You put it all into one trade and double your money. You’ll be happy in the moment. But you’ll also have a warped sense of how risk and reward work – and you’d probably blow out your account from taking too much risk on your next few trades. It’s okay to shoot for big rewards. But remember that you can’t get those rewards without taking a certain level of risk. So to wrap this up: Always Know What You’re Willing to Lose Start With Small Positions, Even If They Feel Too Small Build Your Risk Tolerance Slowly And I’d recommend you follow these steps in any trading program you join, whether it’s Power Plays Options or anything else.
Continue Reading -->How Candlestick Patterns Fail Active Traders – and What to Do About It
JR Romero was a late adopter of candlestick analysis. And in this in-depth lesson, he shows you how and why candlestick patterns fail – and what you can do about it. JR goes over: The basics of candlesticks for stock and ETF Trading How and when candlesticks can fail you and cost you money What JR learned from Richard Wyckoff and the Wyckoff Method Tips for understanding technical analysis chart patterns like Head and Shoulders, rising channels, double tops, and more. How to find support and resistance using simple charts and indicators What real channels and breakouts look like How he analyzed Moderna (MRNA) and QQQ And more!
Continue Reading -->Yes, Sami Still Loves Tesla and Will Not Apologize
Sami Abusaad has made multiple iconic predictions on Tesla (TSLA) over the years. And he is still bullish on the stock – even in the face of constant bad news: Sami goes over: Why Tesla will not be a car company whatever The importance of the massive rounding bottom on Tesla’s monthly chart The tricky thing about the daily chart How Tesla recovered from the Elon Musk-Donald Trump disruption What could turn the stock down
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – WAR FOOTING EDITION
What a week! We just saw: Israel launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities President Trump and Elon Musk make nice The US and China inch towards resolution on trade A big cooling of inflation And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now: 1. War Is Driving a Resurgent Gold Trade Early Friday, Israel launched a series of attacks on Iranian nuclear and military targets. That drove a big rally in commodities like oil and precious metals. Gold is up over 30% this year and this conflict could be a catalyst for more gains – especially if Iran retaliates. Breaking through resistance at the $3450 area would the first step: 2. President Trump and Elon Musk Made Up Last week, Elon Musk went to war with President Trump over the “big beautiful bill” being stuffed with more pork than a bacon factory. Musk even dropped this bomb, though it was deleted this week. But these two Titanic egos made nice this week, with Musk Tweeting “I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far.” And yes, this is a stock market story because it’s created extra volatility in Tesla stock. We’ll talk about a problem with Tesla stock below in this article… 3. There’s Been a Shocking Rally in Super-Speculative Stocks We ran a screen in KoyFin for US stocks with these attributes: Revenues below $50 million Market Cap over $2.5 billion So forget about profits – these companies barely have any sales. The results were pretty wild. We have 18 total stocks, and 15 of them are up this quarter, led by: NuScale Power (SMR): +194.8% Quantum Computing (QUBT): +129.4% D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): 111.6% (numbers are as of Thursday June 12 at 10:50 am ET) And the average return is 47%. Yes, 47%. Speaking of surges… 4. Biotech Is Showing Signs of Life, Small Caps Not So Much In recent weeks, we’ve talked about the biotech sector waking up after 10 years of doing a whole lotta nothing. And traders have been eager to see small caps play catch-up thanks to the light CPI and PPI reports. So what’s happening? Biotech is rocking, with the XBI ETF up almost 6% this month. Small caps? Not so much. 5. Sentiment Remains Weak The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.7% of investors are bullish. This is off lows from earlier this year, as you can see on the chart: But it’s below the long-term bullish average of 37.5%. In fact, we haven’t had an above-average bullish reading since January 29, when 41% of investors were bullish. Let’s just remember that it’s awfully tricky to turn sentiment numbers into actionable information for our trades. 6. Sami Abusaad Provided Another WTF Moment… Sami’s known for making bold statements, like when he accurately predicted Tesla (TSLA) $400 and Bitcoin $100,000. And then on June 4, Sami announced that he put 54% of his IRA into the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF (YINN). And guess what? China’s been doing great since then, with YINN up 13% and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) up 4%: Now, is putting 54% of your IRA in a 3X China ETF sound financial planning? Probably not. But when Sami makes a bold claim, you oughta listen. And FYI – we checked with the man himself and he said the long-term China story looks good, but YINN is ready for a short-term pullback. So put it on the radar… 7. HIMS Is a Growth Name Worth Watching Retail traders love Him & Hers (HIMS). Wall Street hates it. We found out why in this exclusive interview with Jonathan Stern, who created the HimsHouse investor community: 8. The 90s Are Back 90s fashion and 90s music are back. And then there’s 90s tech stocks… They are crushing the Mag7. Oracle (ORCL) is up a whopping 29% this month thanks to a great earnings report. And we see big moves in stocks like Micron (MU), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Applied Materials (AMAT): Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) are getting left in the dust… And speaking of Tesla… 9. Tesla Estimates Are in Freefall One year ago, analysts expected Tesla to earn $3.45 a share in FY2025. That number is down to $1.89 today. Yet Tesla stock is up 86% over the last year. How long can this last? Tesla stock runs on hope… but the numbers have to add up eventually. Right? 10. Inner Circle Prices Are Going Up Prices on David Prince’s Inner Circle community are going UP to: $7,000 per year $800 per month Why do people love this community so much? Find out in this webinar replay. Then go here to apply.
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