10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Now
What a week! We just saw: The US and China starting to play footsie under the table on trade Solid earnings from the 4 mega powers Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN) A big drop in gold Another victory for Bitcoin Lousy GDP data… plus a strong jobs report Stocks taking back the post-Liberation Day decline So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now. 1. We’re Back Baby, Maybe… Stocks went into a tailspin on April 2, President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Well, we sure were liberated from our profits with the SPY going into full bear-market territory. But what a difference a month makes because we are back above the April 2 close: And we’ve seen crazy rallies in leading growth stocks like Palantir (PLTR), Applovin (APP), DoorDash (DASH), and many others. So we’re back. But can it last? One key may be the fact that: 2. Big Hate Is Still Big Money You know who’s still bearish? Just about everybody. The AAII Sentiment Survey still shows massive bearishness, even with SPY gaining over 17% from the April 7 low. The blue bars in this chart show the spread between bulls and bears. When it’s below 0%, bears outnumber bulls – and that’s been the case for months now: I’ve said it once so I’ll say it again: This embedded negativity is the best argument for an extended rebound. And if we get a real deal with China, watch out because the bears may rush off the sidelines fast. 3. The Fed Is Dead Ahead The big news next week is the FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday. The Fed is not expected to cut rates, so traders will mostly be looking for signals as to what’s coming down the pike. For now it’s tricky to gauge the Fed because economic data is pretty mixed. Inflation is coming down, but still elevated on an absolute basis. This week’s GDP report was weak, but other data (like Friday’s nonfarm payrolls numbers) point to strength. So instead of offering real analysis on what the Fed can do… I’ll just say good luck. 4. The Powerful Palantir Reports Monday Palantir is the #1 SPX/SPY/QQQ stock of 2025 with a blistering 61% gain. And it reports Q1 earnings after the close Monday. Fun fact: Palantir has rallied over 20% the day after earnings in 6 of the past 8 quarters. Look at the column on the right – the post-earnings gains have been shocking: Speaking of Earnings… 5. Earnings Season Has Been Pretty Good According to FactSet, 73% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates. And EPS growth is tracking at 10.1%, better than the 7.2% expected, thanks to larger-than-expected earnings surprises. We’ve seen many companies including General Motors (GM) and United Parcel Service (UPS) pull guidance… but who was surprised by that? 6. NVIDIA (NVDA) Is Back to Superstar Status It seems like 10 years ago that NVIDIA (NVDA) announced its $5.5 billion charge from restrictions on exports of the H20 AI chip to China. But it was 12 days ago. And wouldn’t you know it? NVIDIA has round-tripped the whole decline: 7. Gold Is Melting Down We discussed the risks to gold last week. And it’s been sliding as the trade situation has improved, just as equities picked up steam. Since worries over the trade war and an earnings/economic mess were big drivers of gold, there would seem to be big downside risk to gold if the US and China make up like Derek Zoolander and Hansel: 8. Bitcoin Is BOOMING Three weeks ago, I argued that “No One Cares About Bitcoin’s Relative Strength.” And Bitcoin’s been a quiet monster. The IBIT ETF is up 18.9% since the end of March vs. a 1.5% gain for SPY. Since Bitcoin held up well during the early April “Tariff Tantrum,” many market observers believed it was “decoupling” from traditional risk assets like growth stocks. It really was digital gold. But as trade tensions have eased, Bitcoin has just kept on trucking higher. And if you follow leading Bitcoin name MicroStrategy (MSTR), you better watch this video to get JR Romero’s “bloody insane” target price: 9. The Bio-Shock Is On On April 14, we saw a Boston Globe article entitled “It’s the end of Kendall Square as we know it. What if biotech never bounces back?” Magazine Cover Indicator for $XBI? Could biotech have bottomed? cc: @epictrades1 pic.twitter.com/STIjdJBo3z — T3 Live (@t3live) April 14, 2025 Now let’s match that up with a chart: XBI has been on fire since then, finally giving biotech longs a day in the sun. “The Great Bio-Shock” is underway, and nobody cares because biotech can’t drive clicks for big media outlets. Last week, we ran a screen for possible biotech short squeezes using Koyfin and came up with 17 names. Most of those stocks – like BridgeBio Pharma Inc. (BBIO), Apogee Therapeutics Inc. (APGE), and Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX) – have been on fire. 10. It Might Be a Short King Summer Small kicked off May on a strong note. So could it be a Short King Summer? We scanned for stocks with these characteristics: Market cap between $500 million and $5 billion Short interest greater than 50% RSI over 60 We came up with 22 names: Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) Cinemark Holdings Inc. (CNK) Premier Inc. (PINC) Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK) EyePoint Pharmaceuticals Inc. (EYPT) Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN) Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) Apogee Therapeutics Inc. (APGE) Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) EVgo Inc. (EVGO) Eos Energy Enterprises Inc. (EOSE) Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX) TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) AnaptysBio Inc. (ANAB) Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) Janux Therapeutics Inc. (JANX) Wolfspeed Inc. (WOLF) Intellia Therapeutics Inc. (NTLA) Dianthus Therapeutics Inc. (DNTH) Interestingly, many of these are in the biotech sector – showing just how much negativity there is towards that group. Have a great weekend folks. You earned it.
Continue Reading -->David Prince Is An Opportunist In This Market
Inner Circle’s David Prince isn’t worried about being a bull or a bear on this market, instead, he says he’s an opportunist. David explains how his approach allows him to make the most money: David discusses: How he’s determining risk/reward for his trades Where he sees Meta Platforms (META) pulling back to Resistance on QQQ Why he’s continuing to buy dips And more Get David’s new free weekly newsletter here.
Continue Reading -->My “Bloody Insane” MicroStrategy Price Target
JR is bullish on MicroStrategy (MSTR)… and has a “bloody insane” target price on it. Get it in this video now: JR also goes over: The unique technical signal you need to see in Hims (HIMS) Why he is in Zscaler (ZS), and where it can go Why Sensient (TXT) can go to $104 The technical formation TG Therapeutics (TGTX) may be forming Why market leader Palantir (PLTR) may be the “ultimate cockroach” stock The bullish signal in Crowdstrike (CRWD)
Continue Reading -->MAG7 Earnings Prep with Derrick Oldensmith
This is a huge week of earnings for the market with 4 of the MAG7 reporting. Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) report Wednesday while Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) report Thursday. Professional trader Derrick Oldensmith previews the reports and what specific levels he is paying attention to: You’ll learn: What Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet’s (GOOGL) earnings reports may signal for these names How these names are trading ahead of earnings The key levels Derrick is monitoring pre and post the print What he’s focused on for these individual reports Derrick’s positions as of 9:06am ET April 29, 2025 Derrick Oldensmith is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG’), a SEC Registered Broker-Dealer & Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades are placed through T3TG. T3 Live, LLC is a financial publisher that disseminates information about economic, business, and capital markets issues through various media. T3 Live is not a Broker-Dealer, an Investment Adviser, or any other type of business subject to regulation by the SEC, CFTC, state securities regulators or any “self-regulatory organization” (such as FINRA). Although T3 Live and T3TG are affiliated companies by virtue of common ownership, the companies are managed separately and engage in different businesses. The programs that T3TG distributes (including articles, commentary, videos, blogs and social media postings) are for informational and educational purposes only. No one should consider the information disseminated by T3TG to be personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment, an offer (or a solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any investment, or the provision of any other kind of investment advice. No one associated with T3TG is authorized to make any representation to the contrary. T3TG provides information that viewers of its programs may consider in making their own investment decisions. However, any viewer will be responsible for considering such information carefully and evaluating how it might relate to that viewer’s own decision to buy, sell or hold any investment. Such decisions must be based on that viewer’s individual and independent evaluation of his or her financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, family commitments and other factors, not in reliance on any information obtained from T3TG. Statements by any person (whether identified as associated with T3 Live, T3 Trading Group, or any other entity) represent the opinions of that person only and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG. It is possible that any individual providing information or expressing an opinion on any T3TG program may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual or it may reflect some other consideration. Viewers of T3TG programs should take this into account when evaluating the information provided or the opinion being expressed. Although T3TG strives to provide accurate and reliable information from sources that it believes to be reliable, T3TG makes no guarantees as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness of any such information. T3TG makes no guarantee or promise of any kind, express or implied, that anyone will profit from or avoid losses from using information disseminated through T3TG. All investments are subject to risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Viewers of T3TG programs should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants or other qualified professionals prior to making any investment decision. The risk of loss in trading equities, options, forex and/or futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in options trading may benefit you as well as conversely lead to large losses beyond your initial investment. Past results are not indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown. T3 Trading Group, LLC is a Registered SEC Broker-Dealer and Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trading conducted by contributors associated with T3TG on the Virtual Trading Floor is done through T3TG. For more information on T3 Trading Group, LLC please visit www.T3Trading.com.
Continue Reading -->10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Now
What a week! We just saw: Countless twists in the trade war Tesla (TSLA) delivered a lousy earnings report… and then skyrocketed Netflix (NFLX) and Google (GOOGL) prove that not all is lost when it comes to tech earnings A big slowdown in the metals trade Outrageously bearish sentiment A momentum stock surge So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now. 1. Big Hate = Big Money This week’s AAII Sentiment data showed massive bearishness, in keeping with the 2025 trend: As you can see, bears have outnumbered bulls for months on concerns about the trade war and economy. This embedded negativity is the best argument for an extended rebound. Because if we do get good news on trade (like a real deal with China), the upside could be violent. 2. The Earnings Are Coming! We have a BIG week of earnings coming up including: Tuesday: Visa (V), Starbucks (SBUX), Spotify (SPOT), UPS (UPS) Wednesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Qualcomm (QCOM) Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microstrategy (MSTR), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA) FactSet tells us: Although the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises is below recent averages, the magnitude of earnings surprises is above recent averages. As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the first quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. So earnings season is not the disaster the bears have desired. With a huge portion of the S&P 500 reporting next week, could things shift in a positive way? Our own David Prince is focused on Meta. Find out why here: 3. Apple Will Be More Interesting Than Usual As the #1 component in the SPX index, Apple (AAPL) always carries a ton of weight during earnings season. A big beat or miss from Apple can create a meaningful shift in index-wide numbers. This time around, Apple is even more interesting because we’ll learn so many things, like: Did tariff fears really cause an iPhone buying rush, as reported by Bloomberg and others? And does that mean a weak forward outlook because demand was “stolen” from future quarters? Is Apple really moving iPhone production to India as Reuters says? Will Apple follow Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), American Airlines (AAL), and Chipotle (CMG) in reporting a consumer slowdown? Should be fun… and then there’s: 4. Ferrari! Yes, Ferrari (RACE) is a publicly traded company. It’s been a monster performer over the years with an $81 billion market cap: European automakers have been freaked out by President Trump’s tariff threats. Because tariffs would be passed on to consumers, making European cars less competitive with American models. But if any company can say “yeah, our customers just don’t care about higher prices,” it’s going to be Ferrari. We’ll see when the rubber hits the road* with Ferrari’s earnings report on Tuesday. *we apologize for this bad pun 5. Palantir Could Hit “Lucky” Number 7 Palantir (PLTR) brutalized the bears this week and it’s up over 60% from the April lows. It’s up 47% this year and is the #1 stock in the Nasdaq 100 index. MercadoLibre (MELI) is in second place with a 30% gain… way behind. Palantir is expected to report earnings on May 5. The company has beaten revenue and earnings estimates for 6 straight quarters. A conspiracy theorist might assume US intelligence agencies will make it “lucky” number 7… but we’ll talk about that another time. 6. Gold Might Melt Down Gold is the #1 performing asset in 2025 by a long shot, crushing assets like equities and Bitcoin: But GLD just slipped 4% off the highs after going near-parabolic. Is this garden-variety profit taking? Or is the market sniffing out progress on trade with China? Because resolution could create a massive metals meltdown. 7. The Bitcoin Story Is Picking Up Steam Two weeks ago, I argued that “No One Cares About Bitcoin’s Relative Strength.” That narrative is changing fast with Bitcoin crushing stocks in April. The IBIT ETF is up almost 16% while SPY is down: 8. Awful Consumer Confidence May Be a Good Thing Michigan Consumer Sentiment was better-than-expected at 52.2. But on a historical basis, it’s down in the dumps. And it’s way below post-election highs: So if we have people bearish on stocks (based on AAII Sentiment Data) and people worried about the economy, we could have the makings of a durable bottom. After all, you have to assume a lot of sellers have done their selling because of their bearishness. And maybe they’re done. But let’s slap a big emphasis on the word could. Because market timing with sentiment data is very tricky business. 9. Biotech Might Be Back On April 14, we saw a Boston Globe article entitled “It’s the end of Kendall Square as we know it. What if biotech never bounces back?” Magazine Cover Indicator for $XBI? Could biotech have bottomed? cc: @epictrades1 pic.twitter.com/STIjdJBo3z — T3 Live (@t3live) April 14, 2025 Now let’s match that up with a long-term chart: Could this have marked a bottom in biotech? I mean… you don’t read headlines like that at tops. 10. Put These Names on Your Radar… Since we’re talking about biotech, we ran a screen for possible biotech short squeezes using Koyfin. We screened using these parameters: Member of the XBI ETF $2 billion+ market Cap Short interest of 10% or more We came up with 17 names: Soleno Therapeutics Inc. (SLNO) Kymera Therapeutics Inc. (KYMR) TG Therapeutics Inc. (TGTX) BridgeBio Pharma Inc. (BBIO) Avidity Biosciences Inc. (RNA) SpringWorks Therapeutics Inc. (SWTX) Apogee Therapeutics Inc. (APGE) Scholar Rock Holding Corporation (SRRK) Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST) Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) Arcellx Inc. (ACLX) Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RXRX) Cytokinetics Incorporated (CYTK) Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX) Moderna Inc. (MRNA) Immunovant Inc. (IMVT) Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (APLS) They may rip HARD if biotech wakes up. But be careful because this is risky business.
Continue Reading -->What David Prince Is Buying
Inner Circle’s David Prince is great at trading a core group of stocks in his portfolio. And with the recent volatility, his focused strategy has paid off. David discusses the names he still likes here after a 3-day rally: David discusses: The biotech name he “would buy in a heartbeat” on a dip The semiconductor ETF he’s focused on for pullbacks Which big tech earnings name he’s waiting for The software name he loves Plus, is Nvidia’s (NVDA) run as a market leader done? Get David’s new free weekly newsletter here.
Continue Reading -->What I Like in This Sloppy, Sloppy Market
This market is extremely tricky – and Sami Abusaad explains why in this video: Sami explains: Why the SPY looks lower — but it’s not an easy call What typically happens with sell setups Where IWM needs to hold, and why it’s the clearest index ETF to watch right now The great thing about the market right now The energy drink stock he likes here The pet name that looks very bullish 3 stocks he is bearish on And MORE! By the way, if you want to accelerate your trading progress in a big way, consider joining Sami’s Mentorship starting soon.
Continue Reading -->JR warns “We’re not out of the woods yet” in this 2 minute rant
After aggressively shorting the S&P 500 during Jerome Powell’s Q&A on Wednesday… JR was asked what he thought about the market going forward. He answered in 2 minutes. It was quick and NSFW. Also hear about 2 positions he’s actively holding through this choppiness. …plus answering the question “Will we see lower lows?” …and “Should you be aggressive deploying capital?” Want to trade with JR inside the Momentum Express VTF®? Get your first month for just $99.
Continue Reading -->10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week
It was a range-bound week in the market… but there was still some excitement including: The ongoing trade war with China The U.S. banning Nvidia (NVDA) from selling its chip in China Big bank earnings Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta Platforms (META) antitrust hearing UnitedHealth’s (UNH) plunge after earnings Eli Lilly’s (LLY) surge on trial success for its new weight loss pill So let’s dig in to the 10 Things You Need to Know Happening In The Markets Next Week 1. Will the U.S. make a deal with China? During a meeting with the Italian Prime Minister at the White House on Thursday, President Trump told reporters, “Nobody can compete with us…you will see we will make a very good deal with China.” President Trump on China: “Nobody can compete with us…you will see we will make a very good deal with China.” pic.twitter.com/XNjHSygUmj — Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) April 17, 2025 So far, the trade war with China has been contentious with Beijing retaliating with its own tariffs. But the market seems to be less rattled by the tariff turmoil as time goes on. 2. Fed In Focus The Philadelphia Fed, Chicago Fed, and St Louis Fed Presidents are all scheduled to speak next week. Plus, Fed Governor Christopher Waller. The market is looking for more clarity on the Central Bank’s future plans after Chairman Jerome Powell signaled they are well positioned to wait and see the impact of tariffs before cutting rates. Powell said on Wednesday, “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension.” President Trump meantime continues to demand rate cuts. In a post on Truth Social, he referred to the Chairman as “Too Late” Jerome Powell and seemed to hint he may be considering terminating him: Trump originally nominated Powell to the position on November 2, 2017 and his term is set to end in May 2026. The Fed also releases its Beige Book on Wednesday which gives the market a look at economic conditions across all 12 Fed districts. 3. Big Tech Earnings Are Starting Earnings will pick up steam next week with some big tech names in the mix. The question for the market remains centered around future outlook and how many companies will pull their guidance due to tariff uncertainty. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) maintained its full-year outlook on Thursday after beating Q1 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s what names to have on your radar next week: Tuesday: 3M (MMM), Tesla (TSLA) Wednesday: Boeing (BA), Lam Research (LRCX), IBM (IBM), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Thursday: Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INTC) How will these names move? Well, it all depends how the stock is trading headed into the report. 4. Is The Bond Market Back to “Normal”? Action in the U.S. bond market seemed to be much healthier last week after talk that something was “broken” in the week before. Is the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries over? Only time will tell. For now, the 10-year yield is hovering around 4.3% after falling as low as 3.9% at the start of the tariff drama. 5. Is The Housing Market Stalled? We will get updated data on the housing market next week with New Home Sales and Building Permits on Wednesday and Existing Home Sales on Thursday. The recent volatility in the Treasury market has directly impacted mortgage rates as they follow the 10-year Treasury yield. As of Thursday morning, Mortgage News Daily showed the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate just under 6.9%. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported an 8.5% drop in total mortgage application volume last week as rates spiked from 6.61%. That drop came even as active inventory increased by 30%, a bad sign for sellers. MBA said more buyers are opting for riskier adjustable-rate mortgages, with the ARM share of mortgages at 9.6% — the highest since November 2023. 6. Gold Takes A Breather… After Hitting New Record Gold prices continued to spike last week, hitting another fresh record high of $3,357.57 on Wednesday. But on Thursday prices pulled back as investors appeared to book profits ahead of the long weekend. It’s hard in this market to hold anything over a long weekend, knowing the President could announce progress on trade talks or even a new trade deal at any moment. Other metals also pulled back on Thursday including Silver, platinum, and palladium. 7. Consumer Sentiment Update The University of Michigan releases its final Consumer Sentiment Survey for April on Friday. That reading is expected to be unchanged from 50.8 originally. That’s the lowest level for the index since June 24, 2022. The market — and the Fed — are focused on consumers’ inflation expectations with the new tariffs. 8. The VIX Has Pulled Way Back The VIX has dropped below 30 after peaking above 60 on April 8… does that mean the bottom is already in? The market was very boring at times for active traders last week due to the lack of volatility. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg, “If we measure uncertainty by the VIX… I think the VIX spiked and has likely peaked.” Will volatility pick back up with earnings this week and the possibility of new trade deals? CNN’s Fear & Greed Index still shows Extreme Fear driving the market now: 9. Will XBI Continue to Outperform? Biotechs outperformed other major sectors in the market over the past week. Since April 10, XBI is up 6.08% while XLE is up 5.86%, XLF is only up 1.64%, and SMH is down 1.84%. Will that strength continue next week? 10. Is Palantir Set to Breakout Many traders are focused on Palantir (PLTR) for a breakout play. The stock closed just under $94 on Thursday. Is this at a discount here? PLTR has been outperforming the entire MAG7 group, despite being overvalued on a forward P/E basis. This name seems to bucking the “revaluation of stocks” thesis that’s going around. Have a great long weekend! P.S. Want to learn how to trade with X-Ray Vision? Check out JR’s Romero’s Tape Reading Course. It’s LIVE this weekend!
Continue Reading -->Is NVIDIA Going to $50?
NVIDIA (NVDA) could hit $50 in a bear market, Sami Abusaad says. However, whether we do go into a bear market is a major question. Meanwhile, JR Romero sees a much brighter picture for the stock long-term: Sami and JR explain: Why its so tricky to break down the broader markets Why NVDA has short-term staying power The unique secular trends pushing NVDA forward The reason you shouldn’t get caught up into short-term noise What the booming data center market says about NVDA What the company has done right for so long
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