The Ugliest Chart in the World
We closed out another fun week in the markets so it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know, starting with… 1. Oracle Has the Ugliest Chart in the World Oracle (ORCL) did all the right stuff. They had big earnings. Raised guidance. Announced a massive deal with OpenAI. But after all that positivity, the stock put in a slow-motion “sell the news” decline that erased that massive September earnings gap: The stock is now 32% off the highs, make this the ugliest chart in the world right now. Meanwhile, CDS just hit 2-year highs. Why? The market is starting to wonder how OpenAI can spend hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure. Speaking of ugly 2. SPX Breaks the 50 Day Today, the S&P 500 Index fell below the 50 day moving average for the first time since April. Why? Well, aside from normal profit-taking after a monster rally, we’ve got a shut down government, falling odds of a December rate cut (more on this below), weak consumer sentiment, and real questions about the sustainability of the AI boom. The party can’t go on forever. 3. No 100% Rate Cut Guarantee for You Fed Chair Powell said a December rate cut is not guaranteed. And now the CME’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in a 72.2% probability of another easing: This is down from 82% a month ago. The result: pressure on rate sensitive sectors like speculative small caps and homebuilders. 4. Earnings Season Has Been Pretty Good This earnings season has had its fair share of messes (we’ll get to this in a minute), but the numbers look good overall. According to FactSet, 83% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates, and 79% have beaten revenue estimates. And overall earnings growth is tracking at 10.7%, beating the 7.9% expected back on September 30. Sector-wise, the financials have been the biggest contributor to increase in growth, with big boys like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Capital One (COF) dropping huge beats. 5. The Collapse in Basic Luxury DoorDash (DASH) was a monster stock until it tanked on Wednesday after an earnings miss. And this fits a notable trend in weak earnings for consumer stocks offering “basic luxuries” like: Starbucks (SBUX) – expensive fancy coffee Lululemon (LULU) – expensive yoga pants Chipotle (CMG) & Cava (CAVA) & SweetGreen (SG) – expensive slop bowls This ain’t pretty: 6. Sentiment Is Mixed Up The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.0% of investors are bullish. This is down from 44.0% last week. And it’s basically in-line with the long-term average of 38.5%. On balance, this is positive. Because with the market feeling like it’s on right on the edge of falling, it’s good to see doubt. And on a related note, the CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 14, reading Extreme Fear. That’s more a product of how F&G is calculated, and doesn’t necessarily mean the market is freaked out. We can all agree people are cautious at best. 7. Sydney Sweeney Is Still Winning American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) got a monster boost from its “Great Jeans” ad campaign in August. The obvious question to ask was “will this last?” And so far, the answer is YES. AEO popped when the campaign was released, then had a monster short squeeze after earnings. It looked like it was filling the gap, but it’s since rebounded. AEO stock is now up 57% from when it announced the campaign. Hopefully, Ms. Sweeney was paid in stock! 8. Cracker Barrel Is Still Losing Since we’re on the topic of culture wars, let’s take a fresh look at restaurant chain Cracker Barrel (CBRL), which enraged its customers by unveiling a new menu and logo in August. The company reversed course and brought back the old stuff, but that hasn’t helped: This might be uglier than Oracle! 9. Apple Is the King Safety Play Remember when Apple (AAPL) was viewed as a tech laggard because it was behind in AI? Well, as I might remind you, you can download any number of AI apps like ChatGPT, Grok, Perplexity, etc. to your Apple devices. BOOM! You have AI on your iPhone. And again, I suggest telling your kids “Apple is behind in AI, so we’re taking away your iPhone and giving you an Android phone.” See how fast you get slapped in the face. And if you look at the past 3 months, Apple has been crushing the QQQ’s: And yes, it’s good that Apple is working with Google to bring AI features to Siri. But what matters for Apple is that the average person has no reason to leave the ecosystem. And no matter how many negative news stories get planted, iPhones just keep on selling. That makes Apple the King Safety Play. 10. How to Trade Like a Red-Blooded American JR Romero came to America with nothing. Then he made and lost MILLIONS of dollars in the dot-com crash. Now he’s a full-time pro trader who also runs 2 amazing trading rooms. This is your chance to learn the secrets and mindset behind his success. Want all his ideas AND 3 months of Koyfin software? GO HERE. But first, watch the interview:
Continue Reading -->David Prince’s Current Watchlist
Inner Circle’s David Prince believes this is a stock picker’s market. He goes over his current watchlist and what trades he’s looking to execute on in this environment: David also covers: Whether the AI trading theme is fading on Wall Street What he thinks will be the next big theme for markets What could happen to Tesla (TSLA) following the vote on Musk’s pay package Whether seasonality matters right now And more! Apply to join the Inner Circle VTF® and work with David here.
Continue Reading -->10 Trading Lessons from JR Romero
JR Romero joined the T3 Alpha Show podcast to talk immigrant mentality, the wild ups and downs of trading, and why he DOES NOT consider himself a technical analyst. These are the 10 things we learned from him: 1. Work Is Freedom JR Romero came to America searching for one thing: a fair shot. “In my country, you could work as hard as you wanted and it meant nothing if you weren’t connected. Here, I could start a business, make money, and nobody stopped me.” He sees the U.S. as “the greatest experiment in liberty, creativity, and innovation.” The immigrant mentality still drives him: work hard, think big, and never take a new opportunity for granted. Takeaway: Whether you’re trading or building a small business, effort is the one thing you control. Freedom isn’t given. It’s earned through good old-fashioned hard work. 2. Love Winning, But Respect Losing JR is 100% addicted to the rush of achievement. But he also says nearly half of his ventures have failed. “Most businesses I’ve started failed. But it was always a thrill. That’s life.” He treats every setback as tuition. Losing is part of the game. You have to choose to learn and get better. Takeaway: Treat failure like feedback. Every loss teaches you something about your process, discipline, or emotion. But it’s up to you to learn. 3. Trade Like a Merchant, Not a Magician JR doesn’t consider himself a chart guy or classic technical analysis expert. He calls himself a merchant. “Trading is haggling over price all day long. You’re finding where supply and demand meet, like selling rugs in a bazaar.” Indicators are like measuring tape. True traders think in terms of people and price. Your job is to sense when the crowd is fearful or euphoric, and act like a business owner, not a gambler. Takeaway: You’re not fighting the market. You’re negotiating with it as you observe the competition. Approach every setup like a business transaction, not a magic trick. 4. Empathize with the Other Side JR’s trading success comes from emotional intelligence. It’s about empathy, not brainpower. He constantly imagines what other traders are feeling: Who’s trapped? Who’s panicking? Who’s greedy? “We know where the stops are. We know when people feel fear or ecstasy. You have to think like the person on the other side of the trade.” By understanding the crowd’s emotional state, he finds turning points before the charts show them. Takeaway: The market isn’t math. It’s a massive real-time study in human behavior that is measured in dollars. Learn the crowd’s psychology and you’ll spot moneymaking opportunities faster. 5. Marry the Narrative with the Numbers JR rejects the idea that traders must choose between technicals and fundamentals. “There are purists who only look at charts. That’s silly. You need to understand what institutions are thinking, and sometimes that comes from fundamentals.” He combines stories with setups. When Caterpillar (CAT) stock surged, he tied it to infrastructure spending trends — a narrative confirmed by price action. Takeaway: The best trades align story, sentiment, and structure. Use charts to time entries, but let real-world context guide conviction. 6. Cowboy Up Because Your Life Depends on It After losing millions in the 2000 dot.com bust, JR borrowed $75,000 to restart his trading career. TWICE. “You better cowboy up,” he told himself. He worked fourteen-hour days selling Internet services until he could fund his first company, and eventually, his trading career. Takeaway: Real success demands full immersion. Part-time effort leads to part-time results. Decide what you want, and burn the boats behind you. 7. Forget Your Trading Batting Average and Focus on Efficiency Many traders obsess over win rate. JR’s not worried about whether he’s making money on 40% of his trades or 90%. “You can be right 80 percent of the time and still lose money if you manage trades poorly.” He focuses on trading efficiency, which means cutting losers fast and pressing winners. He also emphasizes expected value, weighting every setup by probability and reward. Takeaway: Success isn’t about being right. It’s about staying right long enough to get paid. 8. Your Passion Should Be Your Work and Your Work Should Be Your Passion When JR reads Tesla’s (TSLA) price action, he says it’s like watching a movie: “You get comedy, tragedy, intrigue, and action all inside a few five-minute bars.” If studying markets doesn’t fascinate you, you’ll never last. The best traders feel addicted. And not just because of greed. They love the game and can’t stay away, even if they want to! Takeaway: The market rewards obsession. If you don’t find joy in analysis and execution, find another field before it breaks you. 9. Human Nature Never Changes Algorithms and HFTs may dominate headlines, but JR insists they’re still run by humans. And often badly. “Most HFTs lose money. They misread news all the time. They’re a never-ending opportunity machine.” He’s convinced that greed and fear remain the true market engines, and that traders who understand human bias will always have an edge. Takeaway: Technology changes, but emotion doesn’t. Study people more than programs. 10. Stay Curious About Everything JR reads constantly: history, art, psychology, economics and more. He believes a broad sense of curiosity will sharpen your trading instincts. “Trading is the ultimate social experiment. You’re watching human virtue, greed, and fear play out in real time.” He connects dots across disciplines—understanding how culture, politics, and innovation shape sentiment and price. Takeaway: Great traders think beyond tickers. Read widely, live fully, and keep expanding the mental map that helps you anticipate change. Final Thoughts JR Romero’s story is about more than trading. It’s about belief, resilience, and curiosity. The qualities that turn chaos into opportunity. He’s living proof that you can start with nothing, lose everything more than once, and still build a life defined by freedom and purpose.
Continue Reading -->Getting Extended: Is A Pullback Ahead?
Sami Abusaad says the market has become a bit extended after breaking out. He says if prices break below Thursday’s low, expect a pullback toward the breakout area and the rising 20-day moving average: Sami goes over: The 1-2-3 pattern in COMM The weekly buy setup in GOSS Two casino names on his swing watchlist The “very bullish” monthly chart on TSLA Why U looks headed for $100 Where he would short RBLX And more! Key Takeaways: Stick to short-term trading until there’s clarity. Watch Thursday’s low for direction — below it suggests near-term weakness. If support holds and a strong bounce occurs, bullish bias continues.
Continue Reading -->Amazon Saves the Bull Market + 9 Other Things You Need to Know
The Fed spooked the market this week about future rate cuts but big-tech earnings came in to save the day and keep the bulls running. Now it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know: 1. More Rate Cuts Aren’t Guaranteed Markets got the 25 basis point rate cut they were expecting from the Fed this week… but Chairman Jerome Powell quickly threw some cold water on future expectations. In his press conference, Powell said another cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion.” As of October 31, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows just under 65% of traders now expect a 25bp cut at the December meeting. 2. Amazon is the MAG7 Earnings Winner Amazon (AMZN) shares shot higher on Friday after beating Q3 expectations across the board Thursday. Here’s a look at how the company’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Earnings per share: $1.95 vs. $1.57 estimated Revenue: $180.17 billion vs. $177.8 billion estimated Amazon Web Services Revenue: $33 billion vs. $32.42 billion expected Advertising Revenue: $17.7 billion vs. $17.34 billion expected In a statement, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said that AWS is “growing at a pace we haven’t seen since 2022.” “We continue to see strong demand in AI and core infrastructure, and we’ve been focused on accelerating capacity — adding more than 3.8 gigawatts in the past 12 months” – Andy Jassy That seemed to temper market concerns about the company’s cloud business which have weighed on the stock this year. AMZN has been underperforming its MAG7 peers in 2025, up just 0.7% for the year as of Thursday’s close. 3. Is the AI Trade Unwinding? One reaction to this week’s big tech earnings seemed key to the future of the AI trade theme. Meta Platforms (META) tumbled as increased AI spending overshadowed strong Q3 results for the company. The social media giant hiked its capital expenditure guidance for 2025 to a range between $70 billion and $72 billion vs $66 billion to $72 billion previously. On the earnings call, CEO Mark Zuckerberg defended the massive spending. “It’s pretty early, but I think we’re seeing the returns in the core business. That’s giving us a lot of confidence that we should be investing a lot more, and we want to make sure that we’re not underinvesting.” -Zuckerberg This appears to be the first negative market reaction to big spending on AI… with companies previously being rewarded for such investments. But maybe that’s just a META thing… 4. Nvidia CEO: AI Is In A Virtuous Cycle Speaking at the APEC CEO Summit in South Korea on Friday, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said AI has reached a “virtuous cycle”. “The AIs get better. More people use it. More people use it, it makes more profit, creates more factories, which allows us to create even better AIs, which allows more people to use it. The virtual cycle of AI has been designed, and this is … the reason why you’re seeing the world’s capex going so fast.” -Jensen Huang Basically, demand creates more products, which creates more demand, and more products, and more demand, and more products, and so on. Take a listen to Jensen’s speech below: 5. More Important Earnings Are Ahead This will be another packed week of earnings reports. Highlights include: Monday PM: Palantir (PLTR), Hims and Hers (HIMS) Tuesday AM: Shopify (SHOP), Uber Technologies (UBER), Pfizer (PFE), Spotify (SPOT) Tuesday PM: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Astera Labs (ALAB), Pinterest (PINS) Wednesday AM: McDonald’s (MCD) Wednesday PM: Applovin (APP), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), Robinhood (HOOD), Doordash (DASH) Thursday PM: Airbnb (ABNB), Block (XYZ), Trade Desk (TTD), Affirm (AFRM) 6. It’s Jobs Week… With No Jobs Report The government is still shutdown, which means next week’s October nonfarm payrolls report won’t be released. The September JOLTS report scheduled for Tuesday also isn’t likely to be published. That puts all eyes on ADP’s Private Employment Report at 8:30am ET on Wednesday. For now that appears to be the only number the market will be getting to determine the health of the labor market. Here’s the full calendar for the week: 7. Trade Truce Between the U.S. and China President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping came to a trade truce this week. The two leaders met at the ASEAN Summit in South Korea on Thursday. The agreement includes: A one-year pause of Beijing’s rare earth export controls The U.S. cut fentanyl tariffs on China to 10% from 20% China’s original announcement of rare earth export controls on October 9th sparked the latest round of the trade war with Trump threatening 100% tariffs. But China quickly came to the table for negotiations after that threat. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One after his meeting with Xi that the rare earths agreement will be “very routinely extended as time goes by.” “We have a deal. Now, every year we’ll renegotiate the deal, but I think the deal will go on for a long time, long beyond the year. But all of the rare earth has been settled, and that’s for the world.” -Trump The lower fentanyl tariffs reduces the overall tariff rate on Chinese goods to around 47%. Trump said he will visit China in April and Xi will come to the U.S. at a later date. 8. Sentiment Turns Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 44.0% of investors are bullish. That was up 7.2 points from the week before and higher than the historical average of 37.5% for the fifth time in the past seven weeks. 9. Netflix Announces Stock Split Netflix (NFLX) stock is about to become more accessible for the retail community. The company announced a 10-for-1 stock split after hours on Thursday. Netflix will issue 9 additional shares for every one share held on November 10. The stock will then begin trading on a split-adjusted basis at the market open on November 17. Netflix said the move will make its stock more accessible to employees participating in its stock option program. 10. David Prince Teaches You How Small Accounts Should Use Options David Prince, the leader of T3 Live’s Inner Circle VTF®, often uses options to add Alpha to a stock
Continue Reading -->David Prince: Why Smaller Accounts Should Trade Options
David Prince often uses options to add Alpha to a stock trade. But he believes smaller traders can often win bigger with options instead of buying stock while taking on less risk: David covers: How smaller traders inside the Inner Circle VTF® take his stock ideas and apply them to options Why options can be a better risk/reward vs equities How to determine size on an options trade for a smaller account Apply to trade with David inside the Inner Circle VTF® here.
Continue Reading -->2 Biggest Days Ever + 9 Other Things You Need to Know Right Now
We closed out another big week in markets with the SPX and QQQ hitting record highs after the light CPI report. So it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know: 1. The Rate Cuts Are Coming Thanks to the government shutdown, we’ve been waiting forever for a CPI report. We finally got one Friday, and the numbers were lighter-than-expected. The headline number grew by 3.0%. That’s not low, but at least it was below the consensus estimate. Now, traders are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday, October 29, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool. And 94% of traders expect a total of 50 bp in cuts by year-end. Speaking of next Wednesday… 2. The Tech Megapowers Report Earnings Here’s a partial list of the companies reporting on Wednesday and Thursday: Wednesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META) Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) That’s 5 of the Mag 7, and they represent 22.5% of the S&P 500 index. So far, Q3 earnings season has been stronger than expected (even with rising earnings estimates), and these names could seal the deal on how things turn out overall. So between the Fed and all these earnings reports (plus ones we haven’t mentioned like CAT/LLY/MA), this looks like 2 of the biggest trading days of all time! And oh yeah… we also get the PCE Price Index, plus Japan and Canada’s rate decisions, and Eurozone CPI. Here’s the full calendar: 3. It Could Be Make or Break Time for Nvidia All those big tech earnings reports will have a big impact on Nvidia (NVDA). AI powerhouses like OpenAI, Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and CoreWeave (CRWV) have been sucking down AI chips like crazy. And Nvidia longs want confirmation that the spending spree will continue. Especially since it looks like AMD (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) may be taking bigger pieces of the pie. So Nvidia will move big based on the capex forecasts of these tech giants. It’s the biggest potential catalyst until earnings on November 19. 4. Tony Robbins Is Your New AI Guy I am an AI skeptic, because I question the real-world financial value of all the big AI investments we see. Now, I see that the nation’s #1 Life and Business Strategist (his words, not mine) Tony Robbins is hosting an “AI Advantage Summit:”Now, I have nothing against Tony Robbins. I agree with a lot of what he says. But isn’t this the type of thing you see closer to a top than a bottom? It makes me worry. 5. Sentiment Is… MEH The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.9% of investors are bullish. This is more-or-less neutral, and up slightly from last week. And it makes sense because market participants are in a state of confusion because of: An earnings season that feels all over the place, at least in terms of reactions Minimal economic data because of the government shutdown The nonstop news flow out of the White House And speaking of sentiment… 6. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index Is Not Broken As of early Friday afternoon, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index was at 34, indicating Fear. Is it broken as many market participants think? With markets at record things, sentiment should at least be neutral, like AAII is. Right? Remember, it’s normal for sentiment to be neutral when market is going up amid a confusing news flow. Also, Fear & Greed is not determined by a survey, but 7 market indicators including things like Junk Bond Demand: Maybe you don’t find it useful, but it’s not broken. It’s just spitting out what the recipe says. And speaking of sentiment one more time, trader JC Parets posted a poignant Tweet on Wednesday: 7. Do Books About the 1929 Crash Come Out at the Top? Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book “1929” hit the New York Times best-seller list. And JC had the most interesting reaction: Reading this new book about the 1929 crash has me wondering… do books like this usually come out right before a market crash, or when bull markets still have plenty of gas left? https://t.co/M1BqbSZlZi — J.C. Parets (@JC_ParetsX) October 22, 2025 So if most traditional indicators are reading neutral, and we have a best-selling book about 1929 out, and the market’s at record highs we can conclude that… Nobody knows where sentiment is right now. It’s a mess. 8. Extended Hours Options Trading May Be Coming Soon I recently suggested that option tradings hours should be extended, because it would be a huge convenience during earnings season: While I can’t confirm it for sure, I will assume the CBOE saw the video (it does have a whopping 125 views), because they filed a proposal with the SEC to extend hours for equity options trading. According to the filing, the CBOE would add a morning session from 7:30 to 9:25 am ET, plus an afternoon session from 4 to 4:15 pm ET. I guess it’s fair to give options traders a 5-minute potty break at 9:25, right? Now if only Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) would report earnings before 4:15 pm ET so their options could fit into that afternoon window… 9. Biotech Has Been on Fire One of the biggest beneficiaries of the Fed’s dovish leaning has been biotech. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is the #1 major ETF in October, and it’s now up almost 21% year-to-date. But if you want to see the really hot stuff, look at heavily-shorted small and mid-cap biotechs. We used Koyfin to screen for biotechs with a market cap of $500 million to $5 billion, and short interest above 10%. Many are up 30%+ this month alone: 10. You Too Can Be a Sultan of Swing Trading! JR Romero recently unveiled his swing trading secrets in this exclusive webinar. Want all his ideas AND 3 months of Koyfin software? GO HERE.
Continue Reading -->Bear Get Beaten Back: Those Big Red Bars Mean Nothing Now
In this week’s breakdown, Sami Abusaad reviews the major indices — and how he’s positioning onto the end of October. After a quick breakdown, the market reclaimed its 20-day moving average and pushed back into the upper third of the range. Sami notes that “the trend usually wins out.” And the trend looks up. Sami also goes over: Why he’s leaning mildly bullish, expecting the market to drift higher into month-end unless new weakness proves otherwise Why the monthly chart will be important when the October bar is completed An early-stage base breakout that’s “different from most charts out there,” showing promise if it continues to build strengt A long opportunity in Walmart (WMT), which recently broke out to all-time highs The bullish action in Tesla (TSLA) after it negated its big red bar Where Target (TGT) turns into an attractive long swing idea Potential long entries in ELBM, LU, and XERS The reason he’s cautious about pressing shorts right now 4 Key Takeaways: Market trend remains up, but follow-through into month-end will confirm strength. Focus on long setups showing relative strength and clean technical bases. Keep an eye on weak names like Caesars (CZR) and Under Armour (UAA) for potential short plays if momentum flips. Patience matters — Sam expects more momentum after month-end, not before.
Continue Reading -->How David Prince Trades “Junk” Stocks
Quantum computing stocks are the latest big fad on Wall Street. And while many investors say you should stay away because they have no revenue, Inner Circle’s David Prince has been riding the wave. David discusses how he approaches trading “junk” names and what he’s learned over the years about these trades: David also covers: The latest on U.S. / China trade tensions Rare earth materials stocks like MP Materials (MP), USA Rare Earth (USAR), and Trilogy Metals (TMQ) The AI trade theme following Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)’s earnings The future of Immunome (IMNM) How he trades around a “core position” on long-term investments And more! Apply to join the Inner Circle VTF® and work with David here.
Continue Reading -->My #1 Stock: New Caterpillar Price Target Released
One month ago, JR Romero came out bullish on Caterpillar (CAT) – naming it his #1 FOMC stock. And since then the stock has ripped from $450 to $533. Today, JR updated his target price: JR also goes over: A hot utility stock with a big cup & handle patterns Multiple names in the biotech sector, which has been on FIRE this quarter An IPO base breakout name that refuses to react to political news A “steamboat to China” slow mover that could power up by anotoher $20 Multiple aggressive speculative names that can rocket from here A red-hot aviation name that just triggered And MORE!
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