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The Midterms Have Changed Nothing In The Market
The day after the midterms saw a ferocious rally. But the question I was asking myself while watching stock prices rip higher on Wednesday was this: what exactly has this new information changed? The answer my mind kept circulating back to was that precisely nothing has changed the situation. The current situation is that many of the stocks in the market are weak and lack a constructive price structure. The only thing that matters in determining if we have a low risk situation that is conducive to making money is the existence of many stocks in good setups. We are simply not seeing a plethora of stocks setting up with the price structure I described in last week’s note. However, there are selective examples of this setup that are paying off. One of them is Cricut, CRCT. I mentioned CRCT a month ago. If you go back to the chart posted in the note from Oct 2, 2026, you can see the price structure setup I described last week fully formed in the stock and the buy signal at about $6. This week was the payoff for this stock. Even while playing defense, there are still opportunities for big wins with small positions. I didn’t get all the 50% gain of this move, but I am participating in the upside with very small positions. There’s no reason to still be long this stock after a move like this, by the way. CRCT’s big move: Participating in a small way in big moves is about all I can do to keep my account near all time highs as I wait for a trend to develop. The market will trend eventually, but unfortunately, I think the next trend will be down. The market is trading in a range, and all ranges are defined by either distribution of stock or accumulation of stock as supply and demand are in equilibrium. Equilibrium is a state that can’t last forever. Eventually, equilibrium is affected by an outside force, and disequilibrium becomes the new condition. While in a state of disequilibrium, prices can trend until a new equilibrium between supply and demand is reached. The question traders must be asking right now is whether this range I’ve described is strong hands accumulating stock from weak hands, or strong hands distributing stock to weak hands. Given the price action I’m seeing in the semiconductor stocks, the leaders of this current market, I’ve got to assume that this range is strong hands distributing stock. If you’ve been following my weekly notes, you were aware of the danger in the semis since Oct 15 and what the semis represented to the AI narrative. Big, institutional money knows that without the AI buildout, our economy would be clearly in the contraction phase. The semiconductors are telling us that the best phase of the AI buildout is behind us. Without the leadership of the semiconductor stocks, this market has no leadership to rally higher out of this range. Bull markets need leadership, a group of stocks that are being bought and can rally even on bad news. The leaders are like generals charging into battle, and the rest of the stocks in the market are like the troops that are inspired by their general’s courage and charge into battle along side their general. Think about Russell Crowe’s character, Maximus, in Gladiator. Maximus’ confidence in battle and his troops inspiration in the opening battle scene exemplify this market phenomenon perfectly. The semis were our leadership, and now they are busted. Market leadership will be defined by a group of stocks in a sector that are outperforming the weakness and setting up with the price and volume structure I described last week. Without that setup proliferating inside a specific sector, traders won’t know which stocks to key in on as the leadership to watch. Owning the leading names in a market is the key to winning, and in markets like this, I focus intently on trying to identify the leaders out of market corrections. The medicine stocks are the closest group that is starting to look like it has the potential to be that next leadership, but we will have to see how they respond when the market weakens. JNJ, MRK, LLY, BIIB, TEVA, and AMGN all show that price structure I like. They have the highest potential to be the leaders in the next market trend. What I’m looking for in order to know for certain if these medicine stocks will be the leaders is a decline out of this range in the SPX, and then I want to see these medicine stocks firm or even rally in the weakness. That’s the sure sign that they will be the go to names for longs. When the SPX eventually stabilizes, these stocks would likely be the names that charge the hardest out of the gate if they manage to hold their constructive price structures until then. Then, and only then, will I know that I will have the lowest risk and the highest probability of winning by holding concentrated positions in these names. As I’ve said before, in a market like this, you’ve got to decide if you are bullish or bearish and put on a position. As for me, I’m still bearish. I’ve got lots of cash, at about 75% of my account, and I’m still holding a small short position in DIA. My longs are very selective in names that are in good setups, or assets that I want to own even if the market were to shut down for several months as it did when WWI kicked off in 1914. Assets in that camp that I own are gold miners, pipelines, and timberland. I’m also looking at uranium miners to add to that group of long term assets. CCJ is washing out, and this may be the final give up phase underneath $70. Small, trial buys under $70 will either pan out, and I will add on the way
Continue Reading -->AI: Everything Just Changed
Traders are freaking out over the AI stock meltdown. JR Romero calmly breaks down the situation, and shares what stocks he bought today: (FYI – at the end of the video, JR shares a hilarious story about the time he met the legendary Patrick Stewart) AI stocks are reporting huge earnings. Marvell (MRVL) and Lumentum (LITE) are merging. But the Democrat takeover of the House and Senate has the market on edge. Despite a string of strong earnings reports across the industry, major players like Nvidia (NVDA) Micron (MU), and SanDisk (SNDK) are trading at wildly low valuations. This disconnect between performance and share price suggests a broader shift in investor sentiment. It doesn’t help that worries about credit markets are again. In our latest discussion, JR Romero provides a deep dive into the charts and technical indicators for these key names. He breaks down why these stocks are struggling to find support even after blockbuster earnings numbers. Rather than relying on hype, investors need to look for specific entry and exit levels to manage risk effectively in this environment. As we look ahead, the strategy remains the same: focus on price action over news cycles. Whether you are a day trader looking for quick moves in momentum stocks or a swing trader targeting longer-term trends, having a disciplined game plan is essential. To help our community navigate this, we are opening up access to our trading rooms for a limited time, where we cover everything from pre-market analysis to live trade execution. Sign up here.
Continue Reading -->Nike: How Bottoms Happen
Major brand-name stocks often bottom when sentiment gets extremely negative. You can see this with Nike (NKE): When everyone was yelling “Go Woke, Go Broke” at Nike… smart traders were buying the stock. And it’s up huge! During severe downturns, everyone wants to run away. But market dynamics frequently prove a contrarian rule: bad news sets bottoms, while good news sets tops. When sentiment reaches peak euphoria and universal praise, a stock is often topping out. Sami Abusaad elaborates on market/stock bottoms in this video: And on the flip side, when negative commentary dominates and an asset faces widespread criticism, selling tends to die out sooner than expected. This bottoming process typically unfolds after sharp gap-downs driven by weak earnings reports or narrative headwinds. When widespread capitulation occurs (fueled by poor financial results or ugly headlines) panic pushes prices to extremes. And despair often means the darkness is coming to an end. Holding through the initial volatility of a steep drop requires discipline, but entering when pessimism peaks provides a significant structural edge. Once the bad news is fully absorbed and reflected in the price, you see a massive spike higher. Sometimes out of nowhere.
Continue Reading -->SpaceX & Tesla: Buy the Dip?
It’s a good day for the Democrats, who won control of Congress and the Senate in the mid-term elections. It’s not a good day for Elon Musk because SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla’s (TSLA) stock are down. Is it time to buy? Sami shares his updated outlook: The stock market can be crazy, jumping around based on the latest news and elections. Instead of getting caught up in the hype, it’s usually better to just look at the charts. The recent wild price swings are a great reminder to trust what a stock is actually doing, not just the stories we hear on TV or online. Bad news can be a buying opportunity. Good news sometimes happen right before a stock drops big. Take SpaceX and Tesla, for example. They are always in the news, but the charts don’t look so hot right now. SpaceX keeps trying to rally but fails, dropping below important support levels after soaring too high earlier this year. It’s just not a good time to buy it. Tesla is still in a long-term uptrend, but its current chart is super messy and choppy. There’s just no reason to hit the buy button. On the flip side, crypto is looking really strong, based on Sami’s analysis. Charts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are showing much better buy signals right now than the big tech companies. There are also a few good setups popping up in individual stocks like Reddit (RDDT), Nike (NKE), and Spotify. But overall, it pays to be patient with the broader market and wait for things to settle down. A big trap right now is trying to “bottom fish”—guessing when beaten-down tech stocks have finally stopped falling. Companies like Marvel (MRVL) and Intel (INTC) have dropped a ton. But a stock is never good just because it’s down. Unless you see true exhaustion of sellers, which doesn’t happen when a stock just keeps opening lower day after day, it’s super risky to buy. The smart move is to wait for a real tradable bottom. Finally, there’s a funny psychological rule about trading: if everyone is bragging about a winning trade, it’s probably time to sell. It’s almost like jinxing yourself. When a whole group of people is cheering about a stock going up, it usually means there’s no one left to buy. With no new buyers left to push the price higher, the stock runs out of gas and falls apart. The headlines and how much you like a company don’t matter if the chart says otherwise. Ignore the noise, avoid falling knives, and wait for clear, simple signals before putting your money to work. Want Sami’s next big idea? Try 30 days of the Number Ones Newsletter for just $49 and get it tomorrow morning. Exact entry/exit parameters included. Zero guessing.
Continue Reading -->David Prince: How True Wealth Is Made
Most traders lose money for no reason at all. David Prince knows because he used to be one of them. See why in today’s video: His view isn’t for everyone: if you’re a seasoned trader and you don’t take every trade, it’s okay to put 10% or 15% of your account into a single idea. Why? Because that’s how true wealth is made. Look at Buffett, Tepper, Ackman, Loeb, and Soros. None of them got rich holding 50 stocks. They got rich through concentration. But that doesn’t mean you should always be concentrated. The idea has to earn it. Take Immunome (IMNM). When it was a $7 to $10 stock, David knew the story inside and out. Immunome had brought in Clay Siegall, who had just sold Seagen to Pfizer for over $40 billion. David believed Wall Street hadn’t caught up to it yet. He thought it could take a year to play out, but it moved fast. For the traders who put 10 or 20 percent of their account in, the move to $30 was life-changing. Most of the time, though, there aren’t many great ideas. That’s when you put 2% or 3% of your account to work, and you’re willing to do it for weeks until that special idea comes along. That waiting period is where most traders break. David used to lose money in those stretches without understanding why, until he realized the answer was simple: he was bored. Wait for the idea worth betting on. Want to know which ideas David thinks are worth the wait? Apply to trade with David inside the Inner Circle VTF® here.
Continue Reading -->Midterm Sell-Off? Where Sami Would Buy
Was Friday’s sell-off the start of something bigger? Sami Abusaad doesn’t think so. See why in today’s video: Thursday’s rally into the declining 20-day triggered a sell setup in QQQ, and Friday’s gap down (led by an Intel (INTC) crash) dragged the whole market lower with it. Short term, the market has turned bearish. But Friday’s bounce gives traders a clear line in the sand: if SPY takes out Friday’s low and the 749.50 pivot, the next support sits around 730. And Sami says it would be hard not to be a buyer down there. Small caps (IWM) should hold Friday’s low, or they’re likely headed back toward 270. Semiconductors (SMH) are the weakest of the group. A break below 511 opens the door to 503–504, and below 500 there’s very little support to stop the slide. And with the midterms here, Sami points to history. In the last 17 or so midterm years, the S&P 500 has averaged a roughly 14–15 percent gain one year later. He doesn’t trade off past performance, but he doesn’t see the market falling apart either. So it’s time to be selective. Long Candidates: IBM (IBM) stands out after completely negating its breakout failure and holding up against a bearish tape. Clean 1-2-3 setups in Amrize (AMRZ) and Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), plus a strong-looking Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS). Enphase Energy (ENPH) may be bottoming the way most stocks do: through a bearish gap down. And EFOR is flashing Sami’s favorite “pinch play” pattern. Watch List: Planet Fitness (PLNT) may have bottomed long term, while Rollins (ROL), Fair Isaac (FICO), and UWM Holdings (UWMC) are building bases worth watching. Short Setups: Slim pickings. StoneCo (STNE) is the only short that looks good, and even that one comes with a wide stop. Expect choppy action until the indexes show their hand. Only take setups with the right risk-reward, and keep your stops tight. Sami already picked four of these names for his newsletter subscribers, with exact entries, stops, and targets. Try 30 days of the Number Ones Newsletter for just $49 and see which ones made the cut.
Continue Reading -->AI Reckoning
What a week! Big tech stocks got hit hard this week after earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN). While chips got wrecked by Intel (INTC). And the fun continues next week with more big earnings. Let’s dig in. Skip Ahead! Big Earnings DisappointmentsMAG7 No More?Election Day Is Upon UsSentiment Still SucksHawkish Fed Reigns Big Earnings DisappointmentsWe previously labeled this week the “Super Bowl of Trading”. And it was a doozy. It was the busiest week of earnings season with giants like SanDisk (SNDK), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Visa (V), GE Vernova (GEV), Intel (INTC), and plenty of other key names reporting. And it was a bit of a bloodbath. It was the worst day in GOOGL history. The company lost half a trillion dollars in market cap in one day. Then INTC got crushed on weak guidance. AMZN missed.And even beats from MSFTand SNDK weren’t enough…Big tech companies aren’t getting the same grace anymore for big spending on AI. The earnings slump dragged down the broader market to end the week, with QQQ briefly breaking below the $686 support level. Many traders view that as the Bear/Bull line in the sand for this market. And the earnings craze isn’t slowing down. Next week is another packed calendar with Apple (AAPL), Palantir (PLTR), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Arm Holdings (ARM), Qualcomm (QCOM) and more! Take a look:MAG7 No More?It may be time to pick a new group of leaders. The current “Magnificent 7” – Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) – no longer trade as one big group. An analysis by CNBC calculated the rolling 60-day correlation of daily returns for each of the 21 unique pairs among the group. The average of those correlations has fallen to the lowest level in more than a decade:Analysts say that deviation is due to each company’s different exposure to AI. And since AI has been the trade of the year, the Mag 7 has been lagging as a group in 2026.As of Friday, SPX is up over 10% YTD while MAGS is up just 3.5%:Election Day Is Upon UsThe start of this Q4 has been marked by fear as traders await Election Day. But that uncertainty will clear up this week. The balance of power in Congress is up for grabs in the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3. And history shows the market should rally no matter who wins. An analysis by Schwab found the S&P 500 has averaged a 5.7% return in the three months right after a midterm election since 1974. 11 of the 13 years in that analysis had positive returns. And in the six months following the midterms, SPX saw a positive return in all 13 years, averaging 12.4%. Markets don’t like uncertainty and getting past Election Day relieves a lot of uncertainty for traders.Sentiment Still SucksThe latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 37.8% of investors are bullish.That’s in-line with the long-term average of 37.5%. And it’s the fourth straight week of neutral-ish sentiment. Plus, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at just 24/100, indicating Extreme Fear.Will the joy ever return?Hawkish Fed ReignsThe Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at this week’s meeting, as expected. But it was a hawkish pause as policy makers raised concerns about inflation. The 10-2 decision saw two members vote for a 25 basis point hike: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. The Central Bank didn’t clearly layout plans for their next hike but 71.6% of traders are now betting on a hike at the December meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh didn’t provide much clarity during his press conference, saying growth is strong and inflation is too high. He said the Fed has shown both that it is ready to act and that it is willing to. But repeated that he doesn’t favor signaling the future path of rates through forward guidance. Warsh also announced the bank will hold fewer rate-setting meetings starting next year. In 2027, one of the eight meetings will focus just on strategy with no vote on rates. In 2028, two of the eight meetings will have no rate decision. Now focus turns to the October jobs report on Friday. A strong report will likely lock in chances of a December 9 rate hike while weak data may push the Fed to delay again.
Continue Reading -->One Big Win Is All You Need
Winning in the business of speculation, just like any game, requires success in two operations: offense and defense. There are times when you’ve got to attack and times when you’ve got to protect your turf. Sometimes offense is full of bold and exciting plays, but sometimes it’s a grueling battle of taking one yard at a time. Defense is always and at every time a true slog through the mud. Right now, for my style of trading, defense is the mode I’m in, and it is a crucial strategy to winning the game. The first part of this year was an all out offensive attack with big, aggressive plays that put up points in my account. Beginning in March, I was still on the offensive attack, but it became a one yard at a time fight to try to gain even a first down. Since August, I’ve been on the defensive. I’m trying to just keep what I’ve got without taking any serious losses. Defensive trading is different than playing defense in sports. For me, I’ve got to keep placing trades, which seems like an offensive posture, but I’m really just probing the market to see what’s working. At this late stage in the cycle the market is full of risk. I’ve described in detail all the metrics that back up my analysis. This market is not conducive to playing offense. We will get back to a market that is far more conducive to aggressive plays for wealth building, but this is not that market. In times like these, all I can do is prepare for when we do return to that type of market where I can play offensive aggressively and manage big positions on the long side. The things I’m looking for that let me know when we have returned to that type of market are very specific. When a market is full of stocks and sectors that show the setup I describe in the video, I know the odds are in my favor, and the market is in a low risk phase that can produce some big wins if I get into the right stocks. Reviewing my chart library is how I spend time during the trading day when I’m in defensive mode. I’ll always have some probing trades open in small size to get a feel for whether or not trades are working, but these trades are more of an upkeep activity to stay mental involved in the market. The setup I like shows a price and volume structure that indicates institutional money is buying a stock. When many of the stocks in the same sector show that setup, I know there’s a good chance I can win by buying breakouts. The key to growing an account is aggressive trading with concentrated positions, but holding big positions requires a low risk market. There is no way to speculate with any consistent results in a market that is full of risk like this one. For that reason, I’m spending my time now researching new trade ideas, reviewing past trades, and studying my chart library for nuances among different winning charts. One reason that reviewing past trades is so important is that action bolsters my confidence in difficult times. I’ve taken screen shots of my account when it was about to push through a big figure. Reviewing those pictures now reminds me of all the work it took to get here, and that it was the application of my skill that pushed my account into a higher range where it sits to this day. Every trader should be keeping track of their growth and development with screen shots as their account hits milestones. Reviewing your past success when times are tough is a great way to boost self confidence as a trader. Not seeing any real progress in my account for months now is tough. Without reminding myself that I do possess the skill to put up big numbers, I could easily fall into a negative mindset in a market like this. That’s the most dangerous place for a trader’s mind to wander. The next big opportunity to win could be developing right now, but without keeping a positive attitude, there will be no way to spot it. Staying positive is key. Making small, low risk, probing trades is essential until this market provides the conditions necessary for an aggressive play. I’ve been in about 75% cash since March, and without any big position on, it feels like I’m wasting my time. I know I’ve got to show up everyday at my monitors, put in the work, and stay vigilant, but it is tough when I don’t see my account pushing past all time highs. The only thing that helps alleviate the mental tension is to simply participate. I hunt for any opportunity I can find to just stay involved and participate in something that is working. I’ve got a small short in the DIA, a small long in the housing theme with WY, and a small long in pharmaceutical stocks like the XPH from last week that are all holding up well enough to stay in the trades. These trades are too small to make a difference in my account, but they are just big enough to keep my faculties alert. Keeping an alert mind while playing defense is critical in order to be prepared for the next low risk phase in the market. I was talking with a novice trader this week who was clearly wearing his mind out by following all manner of minutia that doesn’t matter in the big picture. What the Fed does or doesn’t do, whether or not this tech company makes earnings – none of that has ever helped me put up points on the board. Those things are just not critical to winning the game I’m playing. What matters is identifying low risk opportunities and positioning aggressively when they appear. Those opportunities are defined by the price and volume
Continue Reading -->FOMC Preview for the Little Market That Could
The October FOMC Rate Decision is coming! And so is the Anthropic (ANT) IPO. JR Romero breaks down what you need to know: If you spend just five minutes scrolling through financial social media, you might think the sky is falling every 10 minutes. Between sticky inflation, election drama, and upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, there is plenty of drama. Yet, when you cut through all the doom and gloom, one clear reality stands out: the market simply refuses to break down. Looking at the big picture, the S&P 500 has just kept on trucking, staying right near all-time highs. Corporate earnings across the board have stayed remarkably strong, and broad stock valuations are pretty reasonable. While commentators online scream about danger, the actual long-term charts tell a much calmer, healthier story. A huge driver behind this market resilience continues to be artificial intelligence. Anthropic’s recent S-1 filing revealed massive revenue growth alongside staggering computing costs. In many ways, modern AI behaves like the classic movie monster “The Blob”. The more data and processing power the system consumes, the bigger it grows, which in turn forces tech companies to buy even more computing hardware just to keep up. It has turned into an endless cycle where tech giants pour billions of dollars into each other to keep the momentum going. It’s an endless game of musical chairs but the music has not stopped yet. So how should everyday traders handle this wild mix of politics, interest rates, and runaway tech spending? The smartest approach is simple: ignore the constant chatter, stick to the price charts, and look for companies that quietly profit from these massive structural trends. JR shares some standout ideas, like United Rentals (URI), a heavy-equipment provider that directly benefits from the endless construction of new data centers across the country. He also highlights TG Therapeutics (TGTX) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), among other names. Rememberhe market will always give you a reason to worry. While internet experts loves predicting the end of the world, the market keeps going. Don’t argue with the price action. That’s the lesson here.
Continue Reading -->Why You’re Failing as a Trader
Before you place your next trade, listen to this hard-hitting talk from JR. ESPECIALLY if you have been struggling in the volatility. Because he’s going to teach you the psychological shift you need to win big in the market. You can spend 10,000 hours learning every chart pattern on Earth and still fail. You can even spend $100,000 on courses and books, and turn around and lose $100,000 trading SanDisk (SNDK) and Nvidia (NVDA). Why? Because you will get fooled into thinking that making money is about three simple things: -Candlesticks -Patterns -Indicators Reality: making money is about probability. It’s about knowing all the factors that increase your probability of cashing in. Candlesticks, Patterns, and Indicators are simply the vocabulary of trading. They help us explain what’s going on. But not how to buy at $50 and sell at $100. Remember, an 8-year old can learn to read music. That won’t make him John Coltrane. Why You Must Trade Like a Merchant I don’t Candlesticks, Patterns, and Indicators. But they are just three parts of the equation. You also have to think about: -Catalysts -Tape Reading -Order Flow -Market Structure -Options Flow -News -Sentiment At all the factors that impact supply and demand for a stock, index, or ETF. That’s what a merchant does. If you’re running a bodega in downtown NYC and it starts raining, what do you start selling? Flip flops? Or umbrellas? Get it? So if you spend all your time on technicals, you are missing 90% of the picture. That’s why 1,000 people can read a trading book and 950 of them will fail. Because they never filled in the gaps.
Continue Reading -->