Nvidia, Tesla, and the Death of Mag 7
Nvidia (NVDA) just reported, and Tesla (TSLA) has been in rockstar mode. Are they still buyable? And is Mag7 dead? We discuss: We also go over: The tricky details inside the SpaceX IPO Where the semiconductors are going next The importance of a rock-solid premarket routine Why tech has been so strong Our favorite names And more!
Continue Reading -->Will SpaceX Kill the Market?
What a week! Nvidia (NVDA) closed out a whopper of an earnings season, SpaceX is coming public, and the bulls kept us within striking distance of all-time highs. So I’ll ask a dangerous question. Will SpaceX Kill the Market? Elon Musk’s SpaceX dropped its IPO filing this week, revealing billions in losses and a sky-high valuation. And there’s other issues, like index companies changing the rules to get SpaceX into mainstays like the S&P 500, and Elon sucking up the voting power for himself. Does anyone care? It’s tricky to say. We surveyed the T3 Live community this week and asked “Do you want to buy SpaceX when it comes public?” 39.7% said yes, and 34.4% said maybe. And at the start of the year, we asked our audience “Which IPO are you most excited for?” 64.1% said SpaceX 28.2% said OpenAI 3.8% said Anthropic Given what looks like red hot retail interest and Elon’s games with the index providers, I will do my best to get some SpaceX shares before the IPO. Because it looks like the game may be rigged for the stock to pop. No guarantees because it’s common for high-profile IPOs (like recent new issue Cerebras) to sell off after hot debuts. News reports indicate that OpenAI and Anthropic will also come public this year. But there is a danger here – that a surge in new issues could contribute to a market top. SEC data shows that market tops coincide with strong IPO years like 2000, 2007, 2014, and 2021. And we are looking at three generational IPOs coming public in 2026. I’m a little scared myself, though I am trying to scoop up some SpaceX shares myself. What can I say? I love me some Elon Musk drama, which is why I’m long Tesla (TSLA). The Mag 7 Mixup Is Fascinating Mag 7 earnings are amazing. The stocks are another story. FactSet just dropped a new set of Q1 earnings season numbers and they point to Mag 7 dominance. All Mag 7 names beat earnings expectations, with EPS growing by 63.2%. For the other 493 S&P 500 companies, earnings grew by 17.4%, which was impressive by itself. However, 2026 has been a mixed bag for the actual Mag 7 Stocks. 3 of them are down YTD, and the average return is +6.5% vs. +17.5% for QQQ. The discrepancy comes in semiconductors. Nvidia is the only Mag 7 semiconductor stock in a year with SMH up 61%: Nvidia’s Selloff Was Normal On Wednesday, Nvidia reported its 14th straight earnings beat. And the stock fell -1.8% Is this unusual? NOPE. That the 4th straight time Nvidia sold off the day after earnings, despite another solid beat. Here are Nvidia’s prior 8 post-earning reactions: 4Q 2026: -5.5% 3Q 2026: -3.2% 2Q 2026: -0.8% 1Q 2026: +3.3% 4Q 2025: -8.5% 3Q 2025: +0.5% 2Q 2025: -6.4% 1Q 2025: +9.3% Source: Koyfin The stock is a toss-up after earnings. And as you can see, it’s been more down than up. This makes sense, because the stock is widely followed and loved. And Q1 was jam packed full of huge earnings beats from the AI complex. Who was shocked that Nvidia’s still doing well? There Is a Bear Market in Euphoria The latest AAII Sentiment shows that just 31.7% of investors are bullish. This is below the long-term 37.5% average, despite the $SPX remaining in striking distance of the 7517.12 all-time high set last week. Meanwhile, CNN’s Fear & Greed index is at 61, indicating modest greed: This is a positive for the market because it shows a lack of euphoria. You’d think investors would be more bullish because of a mild easing of Middle East tensions and crude oil slipping. But perhaps the crowd is more concerned about inflation and the Fed. Either way, market tops are often (but not always) market by overly bullish sentiment. We are not even in the neighborhood of bullish. Speaking of the Fed… Rate Hikes En Route? While President Trump has been adamant we need lower interest rates, the market is pricing in higher rates following a series of hot inflation readings. The CME’s FedWatch Tool now shows the market is pricing in a 0% chance of lower rates at year-end: Plus: 29.9% chance of rates staying the same 70.1% chance of rates going up And that 70.1% is divided up as follows. 42.4% chance of 25 bps in hikes 22.1% chance of 50 bps in hikes 5.2% chance of 75 bps in hikes 0.5% chance of 100 bps in hikes So why is the market so strong? Shouldn’t the prospect of higher rates hurt equities? For now, investors and traders are focused on booming corporate earnings amid a major AI-driven capex cycle. Rate expectations can change drastically month-to-month, but the earnings/AI story ain’t going away.
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – I Shorted Micron. Here’s Why.
See why Sami shorted Micron here Sami Abusaad believes the market topped out. And he just shorted the greatest stocks on Earth. Get the list now. Sami goes over: Why he bet against the red-hot semiconductors like Micron (MU) and more What to watch for on Monday’s close The problem with IWM right now His #1 long idea, a healthcare play His potential downside targets for SPY and QQQ Learn the 3-step process to “automate” your futures trading Many stock traders worry about buying the top. Futures markets run nearly 24 hours a day, allowing traders to react to breaking headlines, trade the overnight session, and position for whatever comes next. Dan O’Brien, from our sister company Prosper Trading Academy, added a nice little twist to following the futures market: He developed an algorithmic platform that’s designed to “automate” futures trading in 3 steps. Tuesday at 7 PM ET, Dan is going live to walk through this exact process step by step, which helped his futures trade signals show 10X results in 2024 and 2025. Sign up for the live training here.
Continue Reading -->Shorting the Greatest Stocks on Earth
Sami Abusaad believes the market topped out. And he shorted the greatest stocks on Earth. The raging semiconductors. Find out why he targeted these names in particular: Sami explains: Why he shorted red hot semiconductor names like Micron (MU), AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) What we need to see from Monday’s action His potential downside targets for SPY and QQQ, if the bear case triggers Where IWM could go The buy setup in Duolingo (DUOL) The healthcare play that is Sami’s #1 name right now And more!
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – Nvidia: The Big Question Changed
See the 5 Things You Need to Know here With Nvidia, we used to ask “how long can Microsoft and Meta keep buying more chips?” The question we’re asking now is 180 degrees opposite. See why here. We go over: Why the stakes are high for Nvidia Why the Fed is now the world’s most powerful mystery machine An offbeat bull case for Robinhood The shocking surprise about earnings season Whether people are going gaga for the market And more! Claim Your 5 Days in the Premarket Pit VTF® We’re getting questions about the Premarket Pit VTF® Open House which kicks off Monday morning at 6 am ET. The biggest question is why 6 am? Because we’re seeing more stocks move huge that early in the morning. And nothing wakes you up faster than a stock flying 30% in 6 minutes. Beats 10 cups of Starbucks. The next question is “do I need a special broker?” You should be good as long as you can trade pre-market. When in doubt, ask your firm about your eligible hours. And if you don’t know what the premarket is, skip this event. It’s not ideal for beginners. This is the first time we are offering a 5-day pass to Premarket Pit. Again, we can’t emphasize enough: this is for early birds that want to catch whales. Not beginners. We go live at 6 am ET and end around 8:30. If that’s too early for you, no hard feelings. But if you want to go whale-catching with JR & the boys: Sign up for this event now.
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – Nvidia Price Target Revealed
Get JR’s updated NVDA price target 3 months ago, JR Romero said Nvidia would hit $258. Does he still believe that? Find out right here. JR goes over: The real bull case for Nvidia (NVDA) What he expects from next week’s earnings report The problems with the 10-year Treasury yield Why gold and silver look so weak His favorite ideas right now And more. Get JR’s NVDA Update Claim Your 5 Days in the Premarket Pit VTF® We’re getting questions about the Premarket Pit VTF® Open House which kicks off Monday morning at 6 am ET. The biggest question is why 6 am? Because we’re seeing more stocks move huge that early in the morning. And nothing wakes you up faster than a stock flying 30% in 6 minutes. Beats 10 cups of Starbucks. The next question is “do I need a special broker?” You should be good as long as you can trade pre-market. When in doubt, ask your firm about your eligible hours. And if you don’t know what the premarket is, skip this event. It’s not ideal for beginners. This is the first time we are offering a 5-day pass to Premarket Pit. Again, we can’t emphasize enough: this is for early birds that want to catch whales. Not beginners. We go live at 6 am ET and end around 8:30. If that’s too early for you, no hard feelings. But if you want to go whale-catching with JR & the boys: Sign up for this event now.
Continue Reading -->Nvidia Is Going to $258
3 months ago, JR Romero predicted Nvidia was going to $258. It’s since gone from $191 to $227+. Is Nvidia still going to $258? JR argues yes: In this video, JR goes over: The bull case for Nvidia (NVDA) ahead of earnings Where he got his $258 price target The impact of President Trump’s trip to China Why we must watch the 10-year US Treasury Yield Why gold and silver look so weak His favorite ideas right now And more!
Continue Reading -->Nvidia: The Big Question Changed
President Trump made nice with China, the S&P 500 hit 7,500+ for the first time ever, and the 10-year yield is rising like a phoenix. So it’s time to look at the 5 things you need to know right now: 1. Nvidia Earnings Are About to Hit. JR Still Loves the Stock. AI kingpin Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday, May 20 after the close. The stock is up nearly 40% from the March lows, and expectations look higher. Earnings estimates have been rising and AI capex spending by hyperscalers like Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) just keeps going up. A couple of years ago, a common question was “how long can these companies keep spending more money?” Now it feels like there’s no limit. JR Romero, who recently launched the new Premarket Pit VTF®, told us again why he thinks Nvidia is going to $258: You can learn about JR’s other services, including Sultans of Swing Trading, in this new video. 2. The Fed Is a Mystery Machine Inflation remains stubbornly high, judging by this week’s CPI and PPI report, making it hard for the Fed to cut rates. And thanks to the Iran war, oil looks mighty strong: The market is now pricing in a 48.7% chance of a single 25 bps rate cut this year, and a mere 0.4% chance of 50 bps in cuts. That’s according to the CME’s FedWatch tool: Meanwhile, the Fed is about to undergo a major transition when Jerome Powell passes the ball to Kevin Warsh, who is calling for a regime change at the FOMC. And if Warsh doesn’t play ball with President Trump on rate cuts, that could set the stage for another White House vs. Fed rivalry, raising fresh concerns about the independence of the FOMC. 3. Robinhood May Be the Best Crypto Play If you’re bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum (I have no opinion myself), take a look at Robinhood. The stock is down -32% this year, drastically underperforming peers like Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and Coinbase (COIN). Why? Because Robinhood’s crypto revenue fell off a cliff. Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers has been the industry dominator, riding strength in equity markets and announcing new initiatives like its new Prediction-Market Platform. (note: IBKR is one of my biggest personal holdings and I have zero plans of selling) So if you believe in a crypto comeback, Robinhood may be an interesting way to play. Because the market would price in a rapid rebound in the company’s crypto revenues. 4. Earnings Season Has Been a Monster 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings and the numbers are fantastic, according to FactSet data. -Q1 EPS growth is trending to 27.7% vs. 13.1% expected back on March 31 -10 of 11 sectors have beaten expectations -84% of names beat EPS estimates well above historical norms However, there is one dark side. The market is punishing misses more than it is rewarding beats. The average return after an earnings miss is a -4.9% decline. Look at the right side of the chart. The average return after a beat is just +1.1%. So while the numbers are amazing overall, if you pick a bad name, you’re getting spanked hard. And interestingly this amazing earnings season came with relative high expectations because of rising analyst estimates, and the Iran war spiking oil prices. 5. Investors Are NOT Bulled Up The lastest AAII Sentiment Survey showed that 38.3% of investors are bullish. This is the 3rd straight week of neutral-ish sentiment despite equities making a string of new highs. Meanwhile, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at 65 showing modest greed. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio is hovering around 0.50. That means options traders are optimistic, but not overly so. The overall theme here is that market participants are cautiously optimistic. They are not falling over themselves to declare this the best market ever, even after a big rally from the March lows.
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – Is Poet the New SanDisk?
Get Adam Mesh’s POET Analysis Poet Technologies (POET) is a controversial name. The shorts hate it. But Adam Mesh nailed it to a T when he came out bullish weeks ago. And he gives his latest analysis in this new video. Adam explains: Why he got long POET Whether comparisons to SNDK make any sense The reason you have to just ignore the headlines sometimes The problem he has with momentum leader Intel How new options traders can start on the right foot Get Adam’s full update now [Confirm Your Email] For the First Ever Premarket Pit VTF® Open House You are invited to the first-ever Premarket Pit VTF® Open House next week. Get ready to set your alarm clock, because JR Romero and his team start rocking the house at 6 am ET each day. Why so early? Because the early bird catches the whale. And they’re typically done around 8:30 am. Just today, the team called out news flow on EOSE at 6:30 am ET: That’s why it’s worth setting your alarm clock and jumping in the Pit with JR & co. Pre-market volumes are insane. The moves are huge. And they come early. Obviously, this is not for beginners. And there are risks because the action is so fast. But that’s why the rewards are so fat. So if you’ve got a functional alarm clock and the will to win: Sign up now so you don’t miss out.
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – SanDisk Stinks
See why Sami wants to short SNDK Memory and storage names are on fire. And Sami is looking to short them, including Sandisk (SNDK) and Seagate (STX). Find out why. Sami also shares: Why QQQ is so different from SPY now The parabolic names you need to fear right now Why he is bullish in Strategy (MSTR) A beaten-down tech ETF he like long A controversial private credit name that looks bullish Why he is betting against cult favorite Sofi (SOFI) Get his full report now [Confirm Your Email] For Traders That Want It All… JR Romero’s franchise has exploded. He started with the Momentum Express VTF®. But he’s recently added: A comprehensive Mentorship program A pre-market VTF® for big wins before 8 am A daily swing trading service And you can learn all about them on Tuesday. We’ve been getting tons of questions on JR’s various offerings, so this is a great time to see what makes sense for you. This is the perfect opportunity to see if you’re ready for a Mentorship. Or if you should jump in the wild world of pre-market action. And of course, come with your hardest questions: Sign Up for the Live Discussion Now.
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