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Coffee With Greta: Another Inflation Record!

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Editor's Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here.

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DJIA Futures: -10 (-0.03%)

SPX Futures: +4 (+0.1%)

NASDAQ Futures: +40 (+0.3%)

Good morning friends!

Futures are flat after more inflation data and the beginning of Q1 earnings season.

Let’s get right to it!

Producer Inflation Hits Record High

Producer side inflation pressures hit a record high in March. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index surged 11.2% year-over-year. 

That’s the strongest gain on record in the survey which dates back to November 2010.

The PPI rose 1.4% monthly vs 1.1% expected. 

The core PPI, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, rose 0.9% monthly and 7% year-over-year. 

The PPI is a forward-looking indicator for consumer prices as producers pass down higher costs. 

This comes after the CPI surged 8.5% year-over-year in March, marking the fastest pace of inflation since December 1981. 

Inflation Eats into Wage Gains

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real average hourly earnings fell 0.8% from February to March. 

The decline came as earnings rose 0.4% while consumer prices rose 1.2%.

Real average weekly earnings plunged 3.6% year-over-year, the largest decline on record. 

JPMorgan Chase Slips on Earnings Miss

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are down 3.6% ahead of the open after missing Q1 expectations.

The largest bank in the U.S. reported earnings of $2.63 per share on $30.7 billion in revenue. 

That missed analysts’ expectations for EPS of $2.72 on $30.59 billion in revenue. 

JPMorgan set aside $902 million in loan loss reserves and said it lost $524 million due to the market impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

The bank announced a $30 billion buyback program.

Delta Airlines Rallies on Strong Forecast

Delta Airlines (DAL) shares are up 5.6% in premarket trade after beating Q1 expectations. 

The airline reported an adjusted loss of $1.23 per share on $9.35 billion in revenue. 

That was better than analysts’ expectations for a per-share loss of $1.27 on $8.92 billion in revenue. 

Delta’s fuel bill was 6% higher in Q1 compared to 2019 despite capacity being 17% lower.

The company forecast costs will rise 17% this quarter.

Delta logged the highest bookings in company history in March.

The airline said it expects to return to profitability in Q2 and plans to fly 84% of its 2019 capacity levels.

Bed Bath and Beyond Tumbles on Surprise Loss

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) shares are down 11.3% ahead of the open after reporting a surprise Q4 loss. 

The retailer reported a loss of $0.92 per share on $2.05 billion in revenue. 

That sharply missed analysts’ expectations for a profit of $0.03 per share on $2.07 billion in revenue.

Same-store sales fell 12% year over year while digital sales tumbled 18%.

The CEO blamed the loss on “major headwinds in the macro-environment” that have slowed the company’s turnaround efforts. 

Oil Prices Rise on Supply Worries

Oil prices are rising for the second day in a row as supply concerns remain. 

West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 1.6% to over $102 bbl while Brent crude futures are up 1.8% to $106.50 bbl. 

Moscow said peace talks with Ukraine hit a dead end, killing hope that the situation would be de-escalated anytime soon.

At an event in Iowa Tuesday, President Biden announced the EPA will allow higher ethanol levels in gas this summer to combat high prices. 

The agency issued a waiver allowing gas with 15% levels of ethanol to be sold between June 1 and September 15.

Ethanol levels are usually limited to 10% during the summer.

The White House estimates this initiative will save Americans 10 cents per gallon on average. 

Federal Budget Deficit Narrows Sharply

The U.S. federal budget deficit narrowed 71% in March from a year earlier as pandemic spending plunged. 

The government ran a $193 billion deficit last month.

The Treasury Department reported spending fell 45% year-over-year to $508 billion while government receipts rose 18% to $315 billion. 

Revenue totaled $2.1 trillion through March, a record-high for the first six months of a fiscal year.

In that same time period, the federal deficit was at $668 billion. 

That’s down 61% compared to a year ago. 

The huge annual decline in the deficit reflected a sharp drop in pandemic spending as the last stimulus package was approved by Congress in March 2021.

In Case You Missed It

  • Small business optimism tumbled to a 1-year low in February. The NFIB Optimism Index dropped 2.4 points to 93.2 vs expectations for 95.3. 26% of small business owners cited inflation as their #1 problem, the highest since Q3 1981. A record-high 68% of owners said they are raising prices. 
  • U.S. airfares surged in March as high fuel prices hit travelers. The Adobe Digital Economy Index shows consumers spent $8.8 billion on domestic airline tickets last month. That’s up 28% compared to March 2019. Prices were up 20% compared to pre-pandemic levels while bookings only rose 12%.

 

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