NVDA: $122.60 Is the Level to Watch
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SPX futures are +9 after big first-half gains of 14.5% with a high of 5523. What will Q3 bring? As active traders, we go day-by-day and week-by-week to figure out the flows. Will money rotate to energy and bios? Can semis and mega-cap tech keep their leadership? Will the Fed cut in September? Those are the questions we'll let the market answer.
This week, we'll see if 5446 holds to keep this upper level intact. Remember we close at 1 pm Wednesday, and then we’re off Thursday for the July 4th holiday.
A tech sell program hit late Friday. We'll see if this repairs fast or if we see downside continuation below $478ish in the QQQ’s. $473 is key to the complexion of the week.
Now let's dig into some individual names:
NVDA was $136+ when I said the semis were overheated. Last week's low was $118, and it bounced to $128. But it still needs time to rebuild. I did take some home and we'll see if new flows come in, or if it works lower in Q3. For today, it's down a little. See if it reclaims $122.60 or stays below.
I bought OXY for the re-balance trade around $59.50 and sold most into the $63.50 area. Seems like this can work higher. It needs to hold $61.50.
AAPL: Friday's last 5-minutes felt mechanical, so I did buy into the close. I trimmed some this morning. I'll see if this candle repairs fast. Strength was sold almost every session. For now, use $210ish as key. A move and hold below can send this back towards the $206 area.
TSLA finally had a big money trade. I loaded up on options and stock last week. It cleared $189-$191 and hit a high of $203+ Friday, where I took it off. Some rolled into $202 or $205 calls for this week. I wasn't at my desk to reposition. I did manage half. Deliveries hit tomorrow. Know what you can handle.
META is so sloppy. It got hit at the end of the day with tech. We'll see if it can hold the $530 area. Otherwise, it's an avoid. It needs to hold $490ish.
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Your Tip for This Week: Take a Blue Collar Mentality
Trading isn’t about turning on your screens and swinging for the fences each day.
It’s about hitting singles and doubles. Success comes from showing up and doing the work every day, the same way carpenters, ironworkers, and plumbers put together a building.
For traders, this includes forming an effective trading plan, observing the market, and aiming for consistent profits.
I’ve seen a lot of traders search and search and search for some kind of secret sauce.
Hard, steady work is the closest thing to it.
This Week's Calendar
US markets close early on Wednesday and are shut all day Thursday for the July 4 holiday.
However, we do have some important data points this week — especially the JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Employment and Nonfarm Payrolls numbers.
