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SPX futures are +20. Last week's high is 5655. We'll see if today's gains build. Odds of a 9/18 rate cut are 95%, and the market is pricing in 64BP worth of reductions for 2024. Dovish developments are driving the tape with small caps, bios, and beaten down sectors moving. We'll measure how this develops as we approach the tape this summer.
Now let's dig into some individual names:
AVGO is post-split this morning. $185 calls may work. Because if AVGO follows in NVDA's footsteps, there could be a big move here. But know your risk.
SMCI needed another week to move. I mentioned it was a candidate to be added to the NASDAQ 100. We'll see if early gains hold and build. Holding $930-$934 keeps it ready to attack $972, then $1014, and eventually higher.
LLY gave many ways for active traders to buy swing longs. If you're an investor, maybe it changed your life. It's above the $950 high to manage. The 8/21 day has been buyable since it broke out over $800. I think a split is coming.
RDDT is choppy. But a strong move above $76-$77 should get this to $90ish in time.
AMD gave a great move from $166ish to $187+. Now we see if it holds $177ish to give another bull flag move above.
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Your Tip for This Week: When Things Go Wrong, Get Small
Trading is a lot like poker.
You can prepare and study for years to get an edge over the house.
But sometimes, you just get dealt a bad hand, and there’s nothing you can do abou it.
We all find ourselves on losing streaks from time to time. What matters is how we pick ourselves up.
If you’re in a rut, trade smaller and focus on just getting profitable again. This way, you can rebuild your confidence without digging an even bigger hole.
One thing you must never do is up your bets after you’re down.
That’s how you go from 5% down to 20% down to 50% down.
This Week's Calendar
Earnings season heats up as more banks report.
Plus we have Netflix (NFLX) and Taiwan Semi (TSM) on Thursday, which could move tech.
And plenty of Fed officials speak this week.
Positions Disclosure as of 2024-07-15 at 7.56.04 AM