The #1 Question Traders Are Asking Right Now
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We have mixed markets around the world as we head into the last 4 months of the year. Market expectations call for 103bp of cuts for 2024, so economic data is important into the Fed on 9/18.
The #1 question right now is “how dovish can Powell be with the SPX 2% or so off all-time highs?”
The upper range was lost, and most sectors are challenged. QQQ, SMH, and Mag 7 names feel bent or broken technically, while utilities and value are doing better. Tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report is important because it will help the Fed decide on a 50bp cut as hopes for a soft landing persist.
IWM showed relative weakness early Tuesday and broke the $216-$218 area to resolve the pocket pivot lower. Yesterday was a decent red to green trade. Now it's harder. The recent low is $211.71. It could do anything on Friday, so take care.
Now let's dig into some individual names:
TSLA showed relative signal the past two sessions, getting me tactically long. It's up this morning above the $222-$224 area. I did trim some, but we'll see if it can hold gains with the news of its software release in China.
NVDA earnings report was not enough to ignite it. On Tuesday, it led the tape lower below the $116-$117 area. It hit a low of $104.12 and gave a small bounce yesterday. I tried some and am already out. It doesn't look great. See how it handles yesterday's low of $104.12.
ASTS is getting a lot of attention. It’s hard to buy up here, but if you're long, $27 needs to hold. If you're short, take care if it clears the $39 upper pivot area.
On August 8th, GLD got over $222ish to get some active longs back in. It cleared $229 to see the $234 area. It's a bit sloppy up here and $228 needs to hold if you're active. See if early strength holds or not.
GOOGL showed the most relative weakness in the bounce sequence since the 8/5 lows. Yesterday, it broke its inside wedge lower. See if it's the first name to test 8/5 lows ($154.93).
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Positions Disclosure as of 2024-09-05 at 8.20.26 AM
