Tesla $600? Too Soon to Say?
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SPX futures are +15 handles as we kick off Fed week.
We'll see if SPX holds the 6030 area to consolidate for one more move up into year-end.
Tech led the charge over the past few weeks. QQQ hit a high of $533 after the wedge pattern triggered above $511+.
We'll see if the 8-day holds as we look for new setups. $524 is support.
It's been a great run for the Mag7 (minus NVDA), which is why I'm glad we focused on AAPL, META, TSLA, and AMZN in Power Plays over the past month.
Unfortunately, I did some profit-taking early, but we can't be perfect on everything.
TSLA was my #1 focus pre and post-election. And it's the #3 SPX name in December with a 26% gain. There were so many awesome setups and it's at $440+ this morning. I’d trim and trail. It’s hard to buy it today, but that doesn't mean it's an easy short. It can see $550-$600 next year so I'm looking for opportunities to reload.
SMH is trying to get out of the danger zone. AVGO responded well to earnings. Some are optimistic about MU this week. SMH needs to hold $246ish, otherwise back towards $237-$238 it can go.
NVDA has been lagging. And ever since the Red Dog Reversal sell post-earnings, it's just been a range trade. Watch $131.80-$132.50. If that doesn't hold, it might bring out sellers.
AMD gave a tactical Red Dog Reversal at $127.07 last week and got negated fast. I'd avoid it.
Since we are approaching year-end, the January effect is a big part of my strategy.
The January Effect is when beaten down stocks and sectors rally into year-end after tax-loss selling gets exhausted, and sentiment gets extremely negative.
In recent years, the January Effect has started earlier and earlier due to trader anticipation.
Three of my favorite January Effect names this year are CELH, OXY, and VAL.
Just be aware that you never know if/when these types of names wake up, so you have to watch your sizing carefully.
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Your Tip for This Week Use Technicals: Not News Headlines and Economic Statistics As Your Guide to the Markets
I earn my living trading, so price is the only thing that really matters.
The news flow and macro trends are important, but not as much as actual market movement.
Be aware of what’s going on in the world. Just take it all with a grain of salt. We make money by riding price movements — not by being trying to be ‘right’ about politics and the economy.
Remember the Brexit or the 2016 US Presidential election?
The news headlines said the world would end. The price action said otherwise — and the price action was right.
Doomsday will hit sooner or later — but allow the market to tell us when.
That's why in Power Plays, we hunt for opportunities using trend analysis.
This Week's Calendar
We have a busy week ahead with the Fed Rate Decision, Retail Sales, GDP, and more
P.S. Don't forget to check out Scott Redler's Power Plays!
*Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-12-16 at 8.05.56 AM
