All posts by Greta Wall
Coffee With Greta: Rally Resumes
DJIA Futures: +45 (+0.1%) SPX Futures: +12 (+0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: +55 (+0.3%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as traders look to extend the record-setting rally. Let’s get right to it! Krispy Kreme Jumps On McDonald’s Partnership Krispy Kreme (DNUT) shares are rallying 17.6% ahead of the open after announcing a partnership with McDonald’s (MCD) this morning. McDonald’s has agreed to sell Krispy Kreme doughnuts at its restaurants nationwide by the end of 2026. The companies will begin the rollout in the second half of this year and Krispy Kreme will more than double its distribution to satisfy the partnership over the next 2.5 years. Krispy Kreme’s CEO said, “We think we can service about 6,000 restaurants with our existing infrastructure, mostly doughnut shops, which have excess capacity.” McDonald’s already sells Krispy Kreme at 160 restaurants across Louisville and Lexington, Kentucky. Trump Media Company Makes Trading Debut Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) shares are surging 23.8% in premarket trade as former President Donald Trump’s social media company debuts on Wall Street. The debut is a SPAC deal that combined Trump’s company and the shell company Digital World Acquisition Corporation. A majority of DWAC shareholders voted last week to approve the merger. TMTG owns Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social. Trump himself owns 58% of the company and is barred from selling shares for six months. UPS Rises On Strong Revenue Targets United Parcel Service (UPS) shares are up 2.2% ahead of the open after releasing strong long-term revenue forecasts. The shipping giant said this morning it expects between $108 billion and $114 billion in adjusted revenue in 2026. That’s up sharply from the $91 billion the company reported in 2023. UPS also said it is expecting to hit an adjusted operating margin of over 13%. That margin is expected to hit at least 12% domestically and 18% to 19% internationally. In Case You Missed It New home sales fell unexpectedly in February as higher rates put pressure on buyers. The Census Bureau reported sales of newly built homes fell 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000 units vs 675,000 expected. The drop came even as the median new home price fell 7.6% year over year to $400,500, the lowest since June 2021. Supply continued to rise with 463,000 new homes on the market at the end of February, representing an 8.4 month supply.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Short Week
DJIA Futures: -71 (-0.2%) SPX Futures: -16 (-0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: -99 (-0.5%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping to start the holiday-shortened trading week. Let’s get right to it! Boeing CEO To Step Down Boeing (BA) shares are up 3.8% ahead of the open after announcing a management shakeup. CEO Dave Calhoun will leave the company at the end of 2024. The chairman of the board, Larry Kellner, also announced he does not plan to stand for reelection at the annual meeting in May. The board has elected director Steve Mollenkopf to succeed him and he will lead the process of searching for a new CEO. The president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes is leaving the company effective immediately and will be replaced by the current Chief Operating Officer. In a memo to employees today, Calhoun said, “As you all know, the Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 accident was a watershed moment for Boeing. We must continue to respond to this accident with humility and complete transparency. We also must inculcate a total commitment to safety and quality at every level of our company. The eyes of the world are on us, and I know we will come through this moment a better company, building on all the learnings we accumulated as we worked together to rebuild Boeing over the last number of years.” Chipmakers Slip Intel (INTC) shares are falling 4% while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares are down 3.7% in premarket trade following a report that China will block chips from both companies in its government computers and servers. The Financial Times reported that China has rolled out new guidelines that will phase out U.S. processors. Government agencies higher than the township level have reportedly been ordered to purchase “safe and reliable” processors and operating systems. There is a list of 18 approved processors which include chips from Huawei and state-backed group Phytium. Microsoft (MSFT) shares are also off 0.6% as the stricter guidelines impact the use of the company’s Windows operating system. Oil Prices Jump Oil prices are starting the new week higher following Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries over the weekend. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 0.3%, just below $81 bbl, while Brent crude futures are also 0.3% higher, just under $86 bbl. Reuters reported that one of the major refining units at Russia’s Kuibyshev refinery was knocked out after a Ukrainian drone strike this weekend. British intelligence claims at least 10% of Russia’s refining capacity has been disrupted and “major repairs could take considerable time and expense.”
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Late Earnings Rush
DJIA Futures: -16 (-0.04%) SPX Futures: -3 (-0.1%) NASDAQ Futures: -25 (-0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping but still on track for a winning week. Let’s get right to it! Nike Falls After Disappointing Guidance Nike (NKE) shares are down 6.4% ahead of the open after beating fiscal Q3 expectations but issuing disappointing guidance for the year ahead. Here’s how the sneaker retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $0.98 vs $0.77 expected Revenue: $12.43 billion vs $12.28 billion expected Revenue was unchanged year over year as sales slowed in China. Nike reiterated its expectation for sales growth of just 1% from a year ago in fiscal Q4. On the earnings call, executives said the first half of fiscal 2025 will be challenging with sales expected to be down by low single-digit percentages year over year. FedEx Rallies On Profit Beat FedEx (FDX) shares are jumping 10.4% in premarket trade after topping fiscal Q3 profit expectations. Here’s how the shipping giant’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $3.86 vs $3.43 expected Revenue: $21.7 billion vs $22 billion expected Sales were down from $22.2 billion in the same quarter a year ago, the sixth straight quarter of year-over-year declines. But it was also the third consecutive quarter of improved operating profit margins. FedEx’s operating profit margin rose to 6%, up 1% from a year ago and better than 5.5% expected. The company now expects full-year fiscal 2024 EPS between $17.25 and $18.25 vs the prior forecast for $17 to $18.50. Lululemon Tumbles On Weak Guidance Lululemon (LULU) shares are tumbling 13.1% ahead of the open after beating Q4 expectations but issuing soft guidance. Here’s how the athletic apparel retailers results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $5.29 vs $5.00 expected Revenue: $3.21 billion vs $3.19 billion expected Revenue rose 16% year over year. But sales rose just 9% in the Americas, down sharply from the 29% growth a year ago. International sales jumped 54%. Lululemon forecast net revenue in Q1 between $2.18 billion and $2.20 billion vs $2.25 billion expected. The company expects EPS between $2.35 and $2.40 vs $2.55 expected. For the full year, Lululemon sees EPS between $14 and $14.20 on $10.7 billion to $10.8 billion in revenue vs estimates for EPS of $14.13 on $10.9 billion in sales. Reddit Slips After IPO Reddit (RDDT) shares are falling 3.3% in premarket trade a day after the company made its debut on Wall Street. The stock began trading on the New York Stock Exchange at $47 per share and hit a high of $57.80 mid-session. That came after the company priced its IPO at $34 per share on Wednesday. RDDT closed at $50.44 per share on Thursday, up more than 48.3% on the day and valuing the company at $9.5 billion.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Stocks Rally After Dovish Fed
DJIA Futures: +125 (+0.3%) SPX Futures: +26 (+0.5%) NASDAQ Futures: +177 (+1.0%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher amid optimism about the future of Fed rate cuts. Let’s get right to it! Dovish Fed The major indexes all closed at fresh record highs on Wednesday after the Fed signaled it’s still planning for three rate cuts this year. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%, as expected. But the updated Summary of Economic Projections showed the Central Bank still expects to cut rates by 25 basis points three times this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not detail when the bank sees those cuts coming but said he does expect the data to cooperate. He said, “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this type of cycle, and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.” CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now shows over 68% of traders anticipating the first cut in June. The dot plot also showed three rate cuts in 2025, one less than previously expected, three cuts in 2026, and two more cuts in the future. Weekly Jobless Claims Dip Weekly jobless claims fell unexpectedly last week as layoffs remain low. The Labor Department reported 210,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. That was down from 212,000 in the previous week and lower than 213,000 expected. Continuing claims rose by 4,000 to 1.81 million in the week ending March 9. Reddit Prices IPO At $34 Per Share Reddit is set to begin trading under the ticker symbol RDDT in today’s session. The company priced its IPO Wednesday at $34 per share and the offering brought in $519 million. The IPO values Reddit at nearly $6.5 billion, down from its last private market valuation of $10 billion in 2021. This is the first major social media company to go public since Pinterest (PINS) in 2019. Reddit sold 15.28 million shares in the offering and existing shareholders sold 6.72 million. Micron Soars After Earnings Micron Technology (MU) shares are surging 17.4% ahead of the open after crushing fiscal Q2 expectations. Here’s how the chipmaker’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $0.42 vs $0.25 per share loss expected Revenue: $5.82 billion vs $5.35 billion expected The company’s CEO said, “We believe Micron is one of the biggest beneficiaries in the semiconductor industry of the multi-year opportunity enabled by AI.” Micron forecast fiscal Q3 revenue of $6.6 billion vs $6.02 billion expected.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Waiting On The Fed
DJIA Futures: -57 (-0.1%) SPX Futures: -4 (-0.1%) NASDAQ Futures: +25 (+0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are mixed as traders await today’s Fed decision. Let’s get right to it! Fed Day The Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting wraps up today with an interest rate announcement at 2:900 p.m. ET. The Central Bank is not expected to change rates at this meeting. The focus for traders will be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and the Chairman’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. The Fed’s most recent dot plot in December signaled plans for three rate cuts in 2024. But hotter-than-expected inflation and labor market data since then is expected to have possibly dialed those plans back. As of this morning, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 55% of traders betting on the first rate cut in June. Chipotle Jumps After Announcing Stock Split Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares are up 5.5% ahead of the open after announcing plans for a 50-for-1 stock split. In a filing after hours on Tuesday, the company said its board had approved the split. It is now subject to shareholder approval at the annual meeting on June 6. If approved, shareholders of record as of June 18 will receive 49 additional shares for every one they own. The stock is expected to begin trading on a post-split basis when the market opens on June 26. Shares closed at a record high $2.797.56 on Tuesday and are up over 70% over the past year. Mortgage Demand Falls Weekly mortgage demand pulled back as rates pushed higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume fell 1.6% last week. Purchase applications fell 1% weekly and 14% year over year. Refinance applications dropped 3% weekly and 3% annually. The drop came as the average 30-year fixed contract rate rose to 6.97% from 6.84%. Mortgage News Daily currently shows the 30-year fixed rate back above 7%.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Tech Declines
DJIA Futures: -30 (-0.1%) SPX Futures: -17 (-0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: -99 (-0.5%) Good morning friends! Futures are falling as tech stocks slip and traders await this week’s Fed decision. Let’s get right to it! Nvidia Falls After Announcing New Chips Nvidia (NVDA) shares are falling 2.4% ahead of the open after announcing new AI chips on the first day of its GTC Conference. The conference kicked off after the market close on Monday with a keynote speech by CEO Jensen Huang. He announced a new generation of AI chips and software named Blackwell. The first Blackwell chip is the GB200 and it will ship later this year. Huang said, “Hopper is fantastic, but we need bigger GPUs.” Hopper is the company’s current line of AI GPUs. Nvidia also unveiled new AI software called NIM as executives say the company is becoming less of just a chipmaker and more of a platform provider. SMCI Plunges On Share Offering Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares are tumbling 10.3% in premarket trade after announcing a new share offering this morning. In a filing, SMCI said it plans to sell 2 million additional shares of common stock. That pushes its total shares outstanding to over 58 million. The move comes a day after SMCI began trading on the S&P 500 with a market cap near $60 billion. The filing said, “The principal purposes of this offering are to obtain additional capital to support our operations, including for the purchase of inventory and other working capital purposes, manufacturing capacity expansions and increased research and development (‘R&D’) investments.” Goldman Sachs is the underwriter for the new offering and has an option to purchase up to 300,000 additional SMCI shares within the next 30 days. Homebuilding Rebounds New home construction rebounded more than expected in February. The Census Bureau reported housing starts jumped 10.7% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.52 million units. That topped expectations for a 7.4% increase to 1.43 million and was the largest gain in nine months. Single-family starts jumped 11.6% while multi-family building rose 8.6%. January’s starts were also revised higher to a 12.3% drop vs the initial 14.8% decline. The number of new building permits issued also rose 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.52 million vs 1.49 million expected. That was the highest rate of new permits issued since August 2023. Single-family permits rose 1% and multi-family permits rose 2.4%. In Case You Missed It Homebuilder sentiment rose unexpectedly this month. The National Association of Homebuilders sentiment index rose 3 points to 51 vs 48 expected. It’s the fourth straight monthly gain and the first positive reading since July. Confidence in current sales conditions rose 4 points to 56, the six-month expectations index rose 2 points to 62, and buyer traffic increased 2 points to 34. Just 24% of builders said they are lowering home prices to attract buyers, down from 36% in December 2023.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Waiting For NVDA’s AI Conference
DJIA Futures: +69 (+0.2%) SPX Futures: +38 (+0.7%) NASDAQ Futures: +215 (+1.2%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as traders look ahead to Nvidia’s AI conference today and await this week’s Fed decision. Let’s get right to it! Nvidia Rises Ahead Of GTC Conference Nvidia (NVDA) shares are up 2.7% ahead of the open as traders await the start of the company’s GTC conference later today. The annual conference begins at 4:00 p.m. ET with a keynote speech by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. He’s expected to detail the company’s plans for the year ahead, especially in the AI space. In years past, Nvidia unveiled new GPUs at this conference. The company is widely expected to announce successors to its current AI GPUs today,. More than 300 speakers and companies are part of the event which runs through Wednesday. SMCI Joins S&P 500 Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares are rising 2.6% in premarket trade as the stock is set to join the S&P 500. As of the open, SMCI shares will begin trading as part of the blue-chip index. SMCI is up nearly 300% year to date, riding the AI wave fueled by Nvidia. The company is a key supplier of servers for AI apps that work with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) chips. SMCI joins the S&P with a $60 billion market cap and is trading at a PE ratio of 40. Fed Week Traders are awaiting this week’s Fed decision on Wednesday. The central bank kicks off its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday with the rate decision released at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. The Fed is not expected to change rates this week but focus will be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections. That summary, also known as the dot plot, shows where Fed officials expect rates to be over the next few years. The last dot plot in December showed officials expecting three rate cuts this year but hotter than expected inflation and labor market data since then may have changed their expectations.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Volatile Day Ahead?
DJIA Futures: +56 (+0.1%) SPX Futures: +3 (+0.1%) NASDAQ Futures: -15 (-0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are mixed as the market looks to end this down week on a high note. Let’s get right to it! Triple Witching Today’s session could be more volatile than usual as the market experiences its first triple witching of the year. A triple witching is the quarterly expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options contracts all on the same day. It happens on the third Friday of the last month of each quarter. A total of more than $5 trillion options are set to expire during today’s session. $3.2 trillion index options expire at the open while $1.9 trillion in stock and ETFs options expire at the close. If the S&P 500 ends today’s session in the red, the index will log its second straight weekly loss for the first time since late October. Bitcoin Pulls Back Crypto-related stocks are falling ahead of the open as bitcoin retreats from record territory. The coin dropped from above $72,000 Thursday night to around $67,000 this morning, a roughly 7% decline. Currently bitcoin is trading around $67,800. Coinbase (COIN) shares are down 4.6%, MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares are 3.5% lower, and Marathon Digital (MARA) shares are down 2.7%. Adobe Drops On Weak Guidance Adobe (ADBE) shares are down 11.7% in premarket trade after beating fiscal Q1 expectations but issuing soft revenue guidance. Here’s how the design software maker’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $4.48 vs $4.38 expected Revenue: $5.18 billion vs $5.14 billion expected Revenue rose 11% year over year. Adobe forecast fiscal Q2 adjusted EPS between $4.35 and $4.40 on $5.25 billion to $5.30 billion in revenue. The middle of that range implies 9% growth from last year. Analysts were anticipating $4.38 in adjusted EPS on $5.31 billion in revenue. Ulta Tumbles After Soft Forecast Ulta Beauty (ULTA) shares are dropping 8.2% ahead of the open after beating Q4 expectations but issuing a soft forecast. Here’s how the beauty retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $8.08 vs $7.53 expected Revenue: $3.55 billion vs $3.53 billion expected Comparable sales rose just 2.5% year over year. For the full fiscal year, Ulta forecast EPS between $26.20 and $27 vs $27.01 expected. The company expects net sales of $11.7 billion to $11.8 billion, in line with analysts’ estimates.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Higher Prices, Weaker Spending
DJIA Futures: +113 (+0.3%) SPX Futures: +9 (+0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: +43 (+0.2%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as traders digest mixed economic data with hot inflation but weaker than expected retail sales. Let’s get right to it! Wholesale Inflation Runs Hot Wholesale inflation pressures were hotter than expected in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index rose 0.6% monthly and 1.6% year over year. That was higher than expectations for a 0.3% monthly and 1.2% annual gain. It was the hottest annual headline number since September 2023. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.3% monthly and 2.0% annually vs 0.2% monthly and 1.9% annually expected. About two-thirds of the increase was due to a 1.2% surge in goods prices, the largest increase since August, as gas prices jumped 6.8%. Services costs increased 0.3%. February Retail Sales Come In Short Retail sales were weaker than expected last month. The Commerce Department reported consumer spending rose 0.6% in February to $700.7 billion. That was weaker than economists’ expectations for a 0.7% increase but a rebound from the 1.1% decrease in January. The largest increase was at building material stores where sales jumped 2.2%. Sales at car dealerships rose 1.8%, increased 1.5% at electronics and appliance stores, and rose 0.9% at gas stations. Furniture stores saw sales fall 1.1%, while sales at clothing retailers were down 0.5%, and 0.2% lower at department stores. Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Weekly jobless claims fell unexpectedly last week as the labor market maintains strength. The Labor Department reported 209,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits last week. That was down by 1,000 from the previous week and lower than 218,000 expected. Continuing claims rose by 17,000 to 1.811 million vs 1.9 million expected in the week ending March 2. Dollar General Pops On Earnings Beat, Strong Outlook Dollar General (DG) shares are up 4.9% ahead of the open after beating Q4 expectations and issuing strong guidance. Here’s how the discount retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $1.83 vs $1.73 expected Revenue: $9.86 billion vs $9.77 billion expected Same-store sales increased 0.7% year over year vs expectations for a 1% decline. Dollar General forecast Q1 EPS between $1.50 and $1.60 vs $1.88 expected. The company said it expects same-store sales to rise between 1.5% to 2% vs expectations for a 0.3% increase. For the full fiscal year, Dollar General forecast EPS between $6.80 and $7.55 vs $7.42 expected. The company sees full-year sales growth of 6% to 6.7% vs 4.4% growth expected.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Record Territory
DJIA Futures: +35 (+0.1%) SPX Futures: -3 (-0.1%) NASDAQ Futures: -60 (-0.3%) Good morning friends! Futures are mixed after the S&P 500 closed at a new record high on Tuesday. Let’s get right to it! S&P Notches Fresh Record The S&P 500 notched a new record close on Tuesday as the market bounced back from recent weakness. The blue-chip index rose 1.1% to close at 5,175.27. The rally came after inflation data was relatively in line with expectations, keeping the market’s hopes alive for a rate cut in June. Nvidia (NVDA) remained the market leader on Tuesday with the stock surging 7.2% to $919.13 at the close. Dollar Tree Drops On Disappointing Earnings Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares are down 8% ahead of the open after missing Q4 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the discount retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $2.55 vs $2.66 expected Revenue: $8.63 billion vs $8.67 billion expected The company also said it plans to close 600 Family Dollar locations in the first half of this year plus an additional 370 Family Dollar and 30 Dollar Tree stores over the next several years. Same-store sales across both store brands increased 3% year over year last quarter vs 2.8% expected. But Family Dollar same-store sales dropped 1.2% vs the 0.5% decline expected. Dollar Tree forecast Q1 EPS between $1.33 and $1.48 vs $1.70 expected. For the full year, the company expects EPS between $6.70 and $7.30 vs $7.04 expected. Bitcoin Continues Record Climb Crypto-related stocks are climbing in premarket trade as bitcoin climbs to a fresh record-high. MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares are up 3.7%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) shares are 1.1% higher, and Marathon Digital (MARA) shares are up 0.3% higher. Bitcoin is currently above $73,000 after climbing above that mark for the first time ever earlier this morning. The coin has been on a massive rally in recent weeks. Mortgage Demand Rises Mortgage demand jumped again last week as rates fell below 7%. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume rose 7.1% from the previous week. Purchase applications rose 5% weekly but were still down 11% year over year. Refinance applications jumped 12% weekly and 5% annually. The increase came as the average 30-year fixed contract rate decreased to 6.84% from 7.02%. Rates have moved higher this week with the latest quote from Mortgage News Daily showing an average of 6.94%.
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