All posts by Greta Wall
Coffee With Greta: Labor Market Nears Full Employment
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: +122 (+0.4%) SPX Futures: +14 (+0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: +45 (+0.3%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as the market kicks off a new quarter with fresh jobs data. Let’s get right to it! Job Growth Falls Short in March The March jobs report shows the labor market is nearing full employment as the pool of available workers shrinks. The Labor Department reported the U.S. economy added 431,000 workers last month. That was a slowdown from the upwardly revised 750,000 in February and slightly lower than expectations for 490,000. The leisure and hospitality sector added the most jobs last month with 112,000. The unemployment rate fell more than expected, dropping to 3.6% from 3.8%. The labor force participation rate rose 0.1% to 62.4%, that metric is still down 1 point from pre-pandemic levels. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% monthly as expected and 5.6% year-over-year. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts A key part of the Treasury yield curve remains inverted following that jobs data. The yield on the 2-year Treasury is up to 2.436% and the 10-year yield is sitting at 2.422%. Those yields inverted officially in late trading Thursday. This inversion is seen as a warning sign for a recession in the next one to two years. The 2-year/10-year spread has inverted before every recession since 1955. The 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields also inverted this morning. The yield on the 5-year Treasury note hit a high of 2.56% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to just 2.53%. GameStop Surges on Stock Split Announcement GameStop (GME) shares are surging 14.7% ahead of the open after the video game retailer announced plans to split the stock. The company announced it will seek shareholder approval to increase the number of outstanding shares to 1 billion from 300 million. That split would be implemented in the form of a stock dividend. GameStop said the split would “provide flexibility for future corporate needs.” Oil Prices Remain Lower Oil prices are lower as more nations are set to discuss reserve releases. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 1.5% to just under $99 per barrel with Brent crude futures slipping 1% to under $104 per barrel. The International Energy Agency member nations are set to meet today to discuss the release of more global reserves. This comes after President Biden ordered the release of 1 million barrels of oil per day from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next 6 months. That’s the largest and longest SPR release in history and is an effort to reduce record-high gas prices in the U.S. But experts say it won’t make much of a difference in oil supply as the U.S. consumes on average 20 million barrels per day. Data from AAA shows the national average at $4.215 per gallon today. In Case You Missed It PCE inflation pressures hit a 40-year high in February. The PCE Price Index surged 6.4% year-over-year, the strongest gain since January 1982. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Index, jumped 5.4% annually. That’s the largest gain since April 1983. On a monthly basis, headline inflation rose 0.6% while incomes rose just 0.5%.
Continue Reading -->5 Things You Should Know About the Treasury Yield Curve
You may have heard about an inverted Treasury yield curve being a recession predictor. Treasury yields go up and down based on how many investors are purchasing Treasury notes and bonds. And the shape of the yield curve provides clues on how those investors are feeling about the future. Here are 5 things you need to know about the yield curve… starting with what a Treasury yield even is. What Is a Treasury Yield? When investors buy a Treasury bond or note they are essentially giving the government a loan with interest. Treasury notes range in length from one month up to 10-years while Treasury bonds are either 20 or 30 years. That length is how long the government has to pay back the loan to the investor. And each of those securities has a different yield, which is basically an interest rate. When the government pays the investor back at the maturity date, that payment will include the original investment plus interest earned. How Do Treasury Yields Change? Each Treasury security has a baseline yield determined by the Treasury Department. But those yields fluctuate above and below that baseline based on supply and demand. When an influx of investors buys one type of security, the yield goes down and it can be purchased at a discount. And when there is lower demand, the yield goes up and can be purchased at a premium. What Is The Treasury Yield Curve? The Treasury yield curve is a line graph that shows the difference in Treasury yields over time. A normal yield curve looks like this: As you can see, the yield on the 1-month Treasury note is the lowest with the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond being the highest. In normal economic times, this is how the curve should look. This type of curve implies investors are feeling good about the long-term future of the economy and are willing to loan their money to the government for longer. What Is An Inverted Yield Curve? An inverted yield curve is when short-term Treasury securities have a higher yield than long-term securities. A simple inverted yield curve looks like this: But most analysts will refer to a “spread” when talking about an inverted yield curve. The spread is the difference between one short-term yield and one long-term yield. The most closely tracked spread is between the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year Treasury yield. When the yield on the 2-year note is higher than the 10-year note, the difference between them is negative. And that looks like this: Credit: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Charts like this track the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield. When the 2-year yield is higher, you get a negative number. What Does the Yield Curve Signal About the Economy? Treasury yield curves are used by analysts to predict the future of the economy. When the yield curve is normal, it signals strength in the short term. Investors are willing to purchase shorter securities because they do not see an impending economic downturn. But an inverted yield curve is considered a recession warning sign. The curve inverts as investors flee short-term securities because they’re worried about the state of the economy in the near future. Analysts view an inversion between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield as a signal that a recession is coming in the next year or two. And it’s a pretty reliable indicator. That spread has inverted before every single recession since 1955. The market is now eyeing the Treasury market for warning signs as the Fed works to tackle inflation in the U.S. economy.
Continue Reading -->5 Top Inverse and Short ETFs for Traders
The longest bull market in history came to a screeching halt this year. The Nasdaq officially closed in bear market territory March 7 with the Dow and the S&P 500 still falling deeper into correction. Throughout this tumultuous start to the year, some of the Top 5 ETFs for Day Traders have been hit hard. But shorting individual stocks isn’t the only way to make money in a falling market. Inverse and short ETFs may be your better option. These funds are pinned to a specific index, just like QQQ tracks the Nasdaq and SPY tracks the S&P 500. But instead of tracking closely with the movement of that index, inverse and short ETFs move in the opposite direction. Most are also leveraged, meaning they deliver returns 2x or 3x what the index’s movement. Here are 5 top inverse and short ETFs for day traders: ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) The ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) is the short version of the Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ). Just like QQQ, this ETF tracks the performance of the Nasdaq 100. But instead of moving with the index, SQQQ moves in the opposite direction. The fund is also three times leveraged. If the Nasdaq 100 falls 2% in a session, SQQQ is meant to rise about 6%. But that leveraging is specifically weighted for a single session. ProShares warns traders “Due to the compounding of daily returns, holding periods of greater than one day can result in returns that are significantly different than the target return, and ProShares’ returns over periods other than one day will likely differ in amount and possibly direction from the target return for the same period.” The fund has an expense ratio of 0.95, average daily trading volume of more than 68 million shares and over $2.6 billion in net assets, at writing. ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (SPXU) The ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (SPXU) is a short ETF for the S&P 500. This fund aims to track the inverse movement of the benchmark index. SPXU is three times leveraged and comes with the same warning from ProShares as SQQQ. The company says this ETF “seeks a return that is -3x the return of its underlying benchmark (target) for a single day, as measured from one NAV calculation to the next.” The fund has an expense ratio of 0.9%, average daily trading volume of more than 27 million shares, and over $545 million in net assets, at writing. ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) Proshares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) is the short version of TLT, which we covered in this post. The fund moves in the opposite direction of an index of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities of 20 years or more. TBT is two times leveraged, meaning it seeks a return that is double the inverse of the underlying benchmark. Just like all of the short/inverse ETFs we’ve covered so far, that leveraged return is intended for a single session. TBT has an expense ratio of 0.9%, average daily trading volume of more than 9 million shares, and nearly $1.2 billion in net assets, at writing. Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) Although I included the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) in my Top 5 ETFs for Day Traders, it’s worth a repeat here. This fund tracks the Russell 2000 and is three times leveraged. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.94%, average daily trading volume of more than 21 million shares, and more than $359 million in net assets, at writing. Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (SOXS) Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (SOXS) is an industry specific inverse ETF. This fund tracks the ICE Semiconductor Index. The chipmaking industry has been hit hard by supply chain disruptions and major shortages as the economy reopens after Covid. And those issues have knocked down related stocks, benefiting traders of SOXS. The fund is three times leveraged and as with any leveraged fund, that return is intended for a single session. Direxion tells traders this ETF “should not be expected to provide negative three times the return of the benchmark’s cumulative return for periods greater than a day.” SOXS has an expense ratio of 0.95%, average daily trading volume of more than 51 million shares, and over $175 million in net assets, at writing. If you want more ideas of ETFs to trade, be sure to check out this post to learn more about the 4 Top Fintech ETFs to Watch!
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: PCE Inflation Hits 40-Year High
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: -27 (-0.1%) SPX Futures: -1 (-0.01%) NASDAQ Futures: +28 (+0.2%) Good morning friends! Futures are flat as the market gears up for the final day of Q1 and digests fresh economic data. Let’s get right to it! PCE Inflation Hits 40-Year High U.S. inflation pressures hit a fresh 40-year high in February. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index surged 6.4% year-over-year last month, the strongest annual gain since January 1982.. That was in-line with expectations and an increase from 6.0% in January. The Core PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, jumped 5.4% year-over-year, the biggest jump since April 1983. That was slightly cooler than the 5.5% gain economists were expecting but is still an increase from 5.2% in January. On a monthly basis, the headline price index rose 0.6% while the core price index rose 0.4%. The Fed expects PCE inflation to be at 4.3% by the end of this year and fall to 2.7% by the end of 2023. JPMorgan analysts now expect the Fed to raise rates by 0.5% at the May 4 meeting. Weekly Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week. The Labor Department reports 202,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. That was up 14,000 from the previous week and higher than expectations for 196,000. That was the first increase in three weeks. Continuing claims fell by 35,000 to 1.307 million vs 1.340 million expected. Biden to Order Historic Oil Reserve Release Oil prices are sliding as President Biden is expected to announce a plan to release oil from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) today. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down more than 6% to $101 per barrel while Brent crude futures are down nearly 6% to $107 per barrel. Biden is set to deliver an address on his administration’s efforts to combat high energy prices at 1:00 p.m. ET. Several outlets are reporting his plan includes the release of 1 million barrels per day from the SPR, for several months. Goldman Sachs researchers said such a release would help the oil market rebalance in 2022 but would “ not resolve the structural supply deficit, years in the making.” The U.S. consumes, on average, 20 million barrels of oil per day. Meantime, OPEC+ met today and stuck to its modest production plans. The group voted to increase its output by 432,000 barrels per day starting May 1. OPEC+ has been slowly raising its output targets after the record supply cuts seen in 2020 due to Covid. Walgreens Earnings Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) shares are down 2.3% ahead of the open despite beating fiscal Q2 expectations. The drugstore chain reported adjusted earnings of $1.59 per share on $33.76 billion in revenue. That beat analysts’ expectations for adjusted EPS of $1.40 on $33.4 billion in revenue. Same-store sales in the U.S. jumped 14.7% year-over-year, the largest gain in more than 20 years. In the U.K., same-store sales surged 22% compared to a year ago. Walgreens reiterated its previous full-year guidance, expecting earnings growth in the low single digits. Apple Snaps Winning Streak Apple (AAPL) latest win streak was snapped on Wednesday as shares fell 0.7%. That was the iPhone maker’s first loss in 11 sessions. The 18.8% gain over those 11 days was the company’s longest win streak since 2003. The rally added $462 billion to Apple’s market cap, which stands at $2.92 trillion. AAPL shares are up 0.3% in premarket trade. The stock is back on “$3 trillion watch” after becoming the first company in U.S. history to briefly surpass that milestone on the first trading day of 2022. In Case You Missed It Private-sector job growth beat expectations in March. Payroll firm ADP reported private employers added 455,000 workers this month vs 450,000 expected. Small businesses added 90,000, mid-sized companies gained 188,000, and large businesses added 177,000. It was the slowest month of private job growth since August 2021 as the labor market nears full employment. Consumer confidence rose for the first time this year in March. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 107.2 this month from February’s revised reading of 105.7. Confidence in current economic conditions rose 10 points to 153, the highest since July 2021. Expectations for the next 6 months fell to 76.6 from 80.8. Consumers’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months hit a record high at 7.9%.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Private Job Growth Beats Expectations
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: -132 (-0.4%) SPX Futures: -19 (-0.4%) NASDAQ Futures: -91 (-0.6%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping as the market digest fresh labor market data. Let’s get right to it! Private Job Growth Beats Expectations Private employers added more workers than expected in March. Payroll firm ADP reported the U.S. private sector added 455,000 jobs this month vs 450,000 expected. The leisure and hospitality sector led those gains, adding 166,000. The gains were spread evenly across businesses of all sizes. Those with 50 to 499 employees added 188,000 while companies with more than 500 workers added 177,000. Small businesses, those with less than 50 employees, added 90,000. Although the gain came in higher than expected, it’s the lowest since August 2021 as the labor market nears full employment. This comes after the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed there were 11.27 million job openings in February. With just 6.27 million unemployed workers available to fill those positions, the labor gap hit a record high of 5 million. The Labor Department releases the official March jobs report Friday morning. That’s expected to show a gain of 490,000 workers with the unemployment rate falling to 3.7%. Oil Rebounds on Supply Concerns Oil prices are up today amid renewed supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up about 3% to over $107 per barrel while Brent crude futures are up 2.7% to over $113 per barrel. This comes after the American Petroleum Institute reported crude inventory in the U.S. fell by 3 million barrels in the week ending March 25. That was triple what analysts were expecting. Mortgage Rates Soar to 4-Year High Mortgage demand is tumbling as rates skyrocket. New data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows the average 30-year contract rate jumped to 4.8% from 4.5% last week, the highest since 2018. Mortgage demand dropped sharply amid that increase. Overall mortgage application volume fell 6.8%. Refinance applications plunged 15% weekly and 60% year-over-year. Purchase application increased 1% weekly but tumbled 10% compared to a year ago. The higher rates are make affordability even harder for buyers with prices at record highs. BioNTech Pops on Q4 Earnings Beat BioNTech (BNTX) shares are jumping 7.6% ahead of the open after beating fiscal Q4 expectations. The German biotech company reported earnings of €12.18 per share on €5.53 billion in revenue. That topped analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom line. BioNTech announced a $1.5 billion stock buyback over the next two years and plans to propose a cash dividend of €2 a share. The company reiterated its guidance for 2022 revenue between €13 billion to €17 billion. The FDA approved a second booster shot of the Pfizer (PFE) BioNTech Covid vaccine for all Americans ages 50 and older on Tuesday. Lululemon Jumps on Strong Outlook lululemon athletica (LULU) shares are up 6.2% in premarket trade after crushing Q4 expectations and a strong full-year forecast. The athletic apparel giant reported adjusted Q4 earnings of $3.37 per share on revenue of $2.13 billion. Analysts were expecting EPS of $3.27 on $2.13 billion in revenue. Revenue jumped 23% year-over-year. lululemon forecast full-year fiscal 2022 earnings between $9.15 and $9.35 per share with revenue between $7.49 billion and $7.62 billion. That crushed Wall Street’s expectations for full-year EPS of $7.69 and $6.26 billion in revenue. The company also authorized a $1 billion stock repurchase program. Micron Tops Fiscal Q2 Expectations Micron Technology (MU) shares are up 2% ahead of the open after beating fiscal Q2 expectations. The chipmaker reported adjusted earnings of $2.14 per share on $7.8 billion in revenue. That topped the company’s forecast for adjusted EPS of $1.95 on $7.5 billion in revenue. The CEO said “We’re leading the industry in technology across DRAM and NAND, and our product portfolio momentum is accelerating.” Micron forecast fiscal Q3 revenue of $8.7 billion and non-GAAP profits of $2.46 per share. That was better than analysts’ expectations. Apple’s Hot Winning Streak Apple (AAPL) shares are slipping 0.6% in premarket trade as the tech giant looks to extend its winning streak. The iPhone maker’s stock rose for the 11th session in a row Tuesday, closing 1.9% higher. That’s Apple’s longest win streak since 2003, when the stock rose for 12 straight sessions. The company’s market cap is nearing $3 trillion again, after becoming the first publicly-traded company in history to hit that milestone on the first trading day of the year. AAPL shares are still down 1.7% from the record close on January 3. Ackman Ditches Activist Short Selling Billionaire hedge fund manager William Ackman announced his firm, Pershing Square Capital Management, will no longer participate in “activist short selling”. In his annual report to investors, Ackman said the firm has “permanently retired from this line of work”. He unveiled what he’s calling Pershing Square 3.0, which will be focused on executing change by working behind the scenes with companies rather than publicly shaming them. Ackman became known for his aggressive campaigns against JCPenney, payroll firm Automatic Data Processing (ADP), and Canadian Pacific Railway (CP). In Case You Missed It The pace of home price growth rose at the beginning of 2022. The S&P CoreLogic National Home Price index jumped 19.2% year-over-year in January. That was up from 18.9% in December. Home prices surged 32.6% annually in Phoenix, 30.8% in Tampa, and 28.1% in Miami. Consumer confidence rose for the first time this year in March. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 107.2 this month from February’s revised reading of 105.7. Confidence in current economic conditions rose 10 points to 153, the highest since July 2021. Expectations for the next 6 months fell to 76.6 from 80.8. Consumers’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months hit a record high at 7.9%.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Futures Pop Ahead of Economic Data
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: +261 (+0.8%) SPX Futures: +35 (+0.8%) NASDAQ Futures: +145 (+1.0%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as the market looks ahead to new economic data to be released today. Let’s get right to it! Market Awaits Economic Data of the Day Traders are gearing up for a bunch of new economic data today. Both the Case-Shiller national house price index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency house price index are set to be released in just a few moments. Those surveys measure the change in home prices on an annual basis and have both hit record highs over the past year. The Labor Department releases its February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) at 10:00 a.m. ET. That survey is expected to show the jumper of job openings fell to 11.1 million last month from 11.3 million in January. Openings have outpaced the number of unemployed Americans looking for work as the U.S. economy struggles with a labor shortage. And the Conference Board’s March consumer confidence index will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET. Economists are expecting a three-point decline in that index to 107.5 this month. U.S. consumers have been squeezed by high prices as inflation pressures remain at a 40-year high. Treasury Yields Invert Two key Treasury yields are inverted again this morning after doing so for the first time since 2006 on Monday. The yield on the 5-year Treasury note is up nearly 3 basis points to 2.587% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury note is flat at 2.552%. This inversion is seen by many analysts as a warning sign of an impending recession. The more closely monitored spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields remains positive. The 2-year yield is sitting at 2.399% with the 10-year yield at 2.486%. Ukraine, Russia Resume Peace Talks Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia resumed in Istanbul today after two weeks of no talks. Ukrainian officials are still seeking a ceasefire agreement as Russia continues attacks on residential areas. Russia’s interfax news agency said those talks were “constructive”. Russia’s deputy defense minister also said the country would “radically reduce” its military activity outside Kyiv and Chernihiv. Three humanitarian corridors were opened in Ukraine today allowing civilians to escape the cities of Mariupol and Melitopol. Oil Prices Slide Oil prices are sliding as those peace talks resume. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 6.8%, dropping below $99 per barrel. Brent crude futures are down 6.7% to just over $105 per barrel. Demand concerns are also still looming over the oil market amid new Covid lockdowns in Shanghai. Shanghai accounts for 4% of China’s oil consumption and China is the largest crude importer in the world. LHC Group Rallies on UnitedHealth Buyout LHC Group (LHCG) shares are up 7.3% in premarket trade as UnitedHealth Group (UNH) announced it will buy the company for $5.4 billion. UnitedHealth plans to pay $170 cash for each LHCG share. The deal still needs to be approved by LHC Group’s shareholders and regulators. LHC Group provides in-home health and hospice care services and is based in Louisiana. FedEx Founder Steps Down as CEO FedEx (FDX) shares are up 3% ahead of the open after the company announced its founder will step down as CEO. FedEx founder Fred Smith will vacate the role June 1, becoming executive chairman. The company’s current president and chief operating officer, Raj Subramaniam, will take over as CEO. In a statement, Smith said, “As we look toward what’s next, I have a great sense of satisfaction that a leader of the caliber of Raj Subramaniam will take FedEx into a very successful future.” Subramaniam has been with FedEx since 1991. In Case You Missed It Tesla (TSLA) shares rallied 8% Monday after a new SEC filing showed the company wants to split its stock. The electric automaker will ask at the shareholders’ meeting “for an increase in the number of authorized shares of common stock… in order to enable a stock split of the Company’s common stock in the form of a stock dividend”. This would be Tesla’s second stock split in less than two years. President Biden unveiled a $5.8 trillion budget proposal for 2023 Monday. The proposal includes a 20% minimum tax rate on households worth more than $100 million. The plan also raises the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%. Biden’s plan includes about $31 billion in new defense spending and more than $32 billion in funding to combat crime. Congress will use this proposal as a blueprint for budget negotiations.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Tesla Wants to Split
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: -24 (-0.1%) SPX Futures: -2 (-0.1%) NASDAQ Futures: -4 (-0.03%) Good morning friends! Futures are flat as the market gears up for a big week of economic data. Let’s get right to it! Tesla Wants to Split the Stock Tesla (TSLA) shares are up 5.8% ahead of the open after a new SEC filing shows the electric automaker wants to split its stock. That filing said the automaker will ask at the annual shareholders meeting “for an increase in the number of authorized shares of common stock… in order to enable a stock split of the Company’s common stock in the form of a stock dividend”. Tesla split its stock 5-for-1 in August 2020 and shares have more than doubled since then. Recession Fears Spike as Treasury Yields Invert The 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields inverted today for the first time since 2006, spiking fears of a recession. The yield on the 5-year Treasury note rose to 2.6361% while the 30-year yield dipped to 2.6004%. But the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields is still positive. The 10-year Treasury yield is down about 2 basis points to 2.46% after spiking above 2.5% at the end of last week. Traders Continue to Hike Fed Expectations As the Fed is laser-focused on inflation over the labor market, traders are hiking their expectations for the next meeting. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 68.8% of traders believe the central bank will hike rates by 0.5% at the May 4 meeting. 63.2% also expect a 0.5% rate hike at the June meeting, while 13.2% now expect a 0.75% hike. Oil Falls as China Locks Down Shanghai Oil prices are down falling as new lockdowns in China prompt fears of weaker demand. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 4.9% to $108 per barrel with Brent crude futures falling 4.7% to $115 per barrel. The drop comes as Shanghai launched a two-stage lockdown of the city Monday amid a new Covid outbreak. China is the largest imported of crude in in the world. Experts say the oil market will likely turn bullish again later this week as OPEC is set to meet on Thursday. The group is not expected to approve a faster output increase despite the drop in Russian supply. Biden Budget Proposal President Biden is set to release his 2023 budget proposal today. The plan is expected to include a 20% “Billionaire Minimum Income Tax”. That tax would impose a 20% minimum tax rate on U.S. households worth more than $100 million. The White House says the plan would reduce the federal deficit by $360 billion over the next decade. Households that already pay at least 20% would not owe any additional taxes but those paying less would owe a “top-up payment” to meet the minimum. It’s unclear whether the tax plan would be able to pass in Congress. A fact sheet from the White House says Biden’s budget proposal would trim $1.3 trillion off the deficit over the next 10 years. The U.S. had a $2.8 trillion deficit in 2021. Big Week of Economic Data Wall Street is prepping for the release of key economic data for the Fed this week. The Labor Department releases its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. Then ADP’s private March payrolls report will be released Wednesday. The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index Thursday morning. That includes the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index. And the official March jobs report will be released Friday morning. This week of data will give the market a better gauge of the economy and the Fed’s plans to tackle inflation at future meetings. Economists expect the jobs data to show the labor market is near full employment with inflation continuing to rise. In Case You Missed It Cannabis stocks rallied at the end of last week as the House gets ready to consider a legalization bill. Tilray (TLRY) shares ended the week 55% higher. The House Rules Committee is set to hold a hearing today on the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act. The bill is then expected to be voted on by the full House later this week.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: U.S. to Provide Natural Gas to Europe
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: +91 (+0.3%) SPX Futures: +15 (+0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: +50 (+0.3%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as the market looks for its second straight winning week. Let’s get right to it! Europe Strikes Natural Gas Deal with U.S. The U.S. announces a deal to provide Europe with more liquefied natural gas. The U.S. and EU agreed to form a joint task force aimed at boosting energy security for Ukraine and Europe for the next two winters. The “Task Force For Energy Security” will be chaired by a representative from the White House and a representative from the European Commission. The U.S. will work with international partners to provide at least 15 billion cubic meters more of LNG to the EU this year. Under the deal, the EU must work toward ensuring demand for 50 billion cubic meters per year of extra LNG from the U.S., until at least 2030. Oil Prices Slip Oil prices are continuing to slip as supply concerns ease. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down nearly 3% and under $109 per barrel while Brent crude futures are down 3% to $115 per barrel. But both are still on track for the first weekly gain in three weeks. Today’s drop comes as oil exports are expected to resume on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia’s Black Sea Coast. That terminal was shutdown due to storm damage this week and it was expected to take a month to fix. But Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister said exports will resume from one of three mooring points today. The EU also remains split on whether to impose a ban on Russian oil. OPEC sources say the group warned Europe that would hurt consumers in the bloc. Bed Bath & Beyond Jumps on Deal with Ryan Cohen Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) shares are up 10.7% ahead of the open after reaching a deal with activist investor and GameStop (GME) Chairman Ryan Cohen. In a press release, the company announced three people from Cohen’s investment firm RC Ventures will join the Bed Bath & Beyond board of directors. Two of those people will join a strategy committee to explore alternatives for the Buybuy Baby chain. This comes after Cohen revealed a nearly 10% stake in the company earlier this month and called on the board to restructure the business. NIO Slips on Weak Guidance NIO (NIO) shares are down 6.1% after Q1 guidance came in short. The Chinese electric automaker reported an adjusted Q4 loss of $0.16 per share on $1.55 billion in revenue. The loss was in-line with analysts’ expectations and revenue beat estimates for $1.52 billion. NIO said it delivered 25,034 vehicles last quarter vs 24,945 expected. But the company forecast Q1 revenue between $1.51 billion and $1.57 billion vs analysts’ expectations for $1.66 billion. NIO expects to deliver between 25,000 to 26,000 vehicles in Q1. Wall Street was looking for delivery guidance of 27,958 vehicles. Honest Shares Tumble on Weak Q4 Honest Co (HNST) shares are tumbling 18.2% ahead of the open after missing Q4 expectations. The consumer-goods company reported a loss of $0.10 per share on $80.4 million in revenue. That was worse than analysts’ expectations for a loss of $0.07 per share on $84.7 million in revenue. Sales in Honest’s household and wellness business tumbled 68%. The company blamed that drop on “reduced COVID-19-related consumer demand for sanitizing and disinfecting products and face masks”. Honest forecast a 15% year-over-year decline in Q1 sales and said it expects full-year sales growth to be flat. Cannabis Stocks Rally Cannabis stocks are rallying after the House announced it will consider the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act next week. Tilray Brands (TLRY) shares are up 14.9% ahead of the open after rallying 21.9% on Thursday. Shares of the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), which tracks the cannabis sector, are up 6.9% after jumping 7.9% Thursday. The House Rules Committee will hold a hearing on the MORE Act Monday. The full House could then vote on it as early as next week. The bill would remove marijuana from the federal controlled substances list, eliminate all criminal penalties associated with it. It would also impose a federal tax on marijuana sales. A similar bill was approved by the House in December 2020 but was never considered by the Republican-controlled Senate at the time. How Are Consumers Feeling? The University of Michigan releases its final March consumer sentiment index at 10:00 a.m. ET. That index is expected to be unchanged from the flash reading of 59.7 earlier this month. That reading was the lowest since September 2011, as consumers worried about the impact of the Ukraine war and inflation. The survey also includes consumers’ 5-year and 1-year inflation expectations. Pending Home Sales Preview The National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales for February at 10:00 a.m. ET. That report is expected to show the number of contracts signed to purchase a home rose 1.0% last month after tumbling 5.7% in January. Pending sales represent home sales that are expected to close in 30 to 60 days. In Case You Missed It Weekly jobless claims tumbled to a 53-year low last week. The Labor Department reported 187,000 Americans filed initial claims, the lowest total since 1969. Continuing claims also fell to 1.35 million, the lowest since 1970. Chip stocks led Thursday’s market rally. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) jumped 5.1% while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 4.9%. Nvidia (NVDA) led those gains, rallying 9.8% for its best day since November. And Intel’s (INTC) 6.9% gain marked its best day in more than a year. The rally comes after Nvidia unveiled new products this week and Intel’s CEO testified in Congress in support of expanding chip manufacturing in the U.S.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: An Extraordinary NATO Summit Is Underway
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: +117 (+0.3%) SPX Futures: +21 (+0.5%) NASDAQ Futures: +77 (+0.5%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as the NATO summit kicks off in Brussels. Let’s get right to it! Extraordinary NATO Summit Kicks Off The extraordinary NATO summit is underway in Brussels. Leaders from the alliance, including President Biden, are meeting in person today and are expected to ramp-up their actions against Russia. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called the emergency meeting in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Stoltenberg said he expects the group to increase its troop presence along the eastern flank. That includes establishing four new battle groups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. The group is also expected to announce additional sanctions against Moscow. There will also be a G7 meeting at the summit. This comes after the U.S. officially accused Russia of war crimes in Ukraine on Wednesday. In a statement, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “Russia’s forces have destroyed apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, critical infrastructure, civilian vehicles, shopping centers, and ambulances, leaving thousands of innocent civilians killed or wounded”. Biden will travel to Poland Friday but will not visit Ukraine. Russian Market Reopens The Moscow Exchange resumed limited trading today for the first time since February 25. Trading was permitted in 33 Russian equities between the hours of 10:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. local time. Short-selling was banned and foreign investors are not able to sell stocks until April 1. The MOEX Russia Index closed 4.4% higher. Russian oil giant Rosneft soared 17% while Lukoil jumped 12.4 Oil Prices Slip on Iran Deal Hopes Oil prices are slipping today on optimism for a revived Iran nuclear deal. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 0.4% to $114.50 per barrel with Brent crude futures falling 0.2% to $121.30 per barrel. The White House said Wednesday the U.S. and Iran had made progress in nuclear talks. Part of that deal would lift export restrictions on Iran, which would help ease supply concerns in the oil market. The Energy Information Administration reported a drop in U.S. crude inventories last week. That stockpile declined by 2.5 million barrels for the week ending March 18 vs expectations for inventory to be unchanged. The EIA report also showed gasoline inventory declined by 2.9 million barrels. Weekly Jobless Claims Fall to 53-Year Low Weekly jobless claims tumbled to the lowest level since 1969. The Labor Department reported 187,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits last week. That was down 28,000 from the previous week and sharply beat economists’ expectations for 210,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.35 million in the week ending March 12, the lowest since 1970. Nikola Begins Production of Electric Semi Nikola (NKLA) shares are soaring 18.2% ahead of the open after beginning production of its fully-electric semitruck. The automaker announced Wednesday production of its battery-electric Tre semitruck started at its factory in Coolidge, Arizona on Monday. Nikola said it plans to begin deliveries of the truck in Q2 and set a goal of 300 to 500 total deliveries this year. The battery-electric version of the Tre semitruck has an estimated range of 350 miles. Nikola plans to make a hydrogen fuel cell semi next, which would have a 500 mile range. That truck is expected to begin shipping in late 2023. KB Home Slips After Earnings Miss KB Home (KBH) shares are down 2.5%in premarket trade after missing fiscal Q1 expectations. The homebuilder reported earnings of $1.02 per share on $1.4 billion in revenue. That missed analysts’ expectations for EPS of $1.54 on $1.5 billion in revenue. KB Home delivered 2,868 homes in the quarter vs Wall Street’s expectations for 3,180. The CEO said supply-chain and labor issues got worse last quarter, causing a delay in building. KB Home maintained its full-year guidance for home-building revenue between $7.2 billion and $7.6 billion. The company raised its average selling price forecast by $10,000. In Case You Missed It New home sales fell 2% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 772,000 units vs 805,000 expected. The drop came despite the number of listings rising 2.3% from January to 407,000 units. That represents a 6.3 month supply at the current sales pace. The median price of a new home sold in February jumped 10.7% year-over-year to $400,600 while the average sales price was $511,000. GameStop (GME) shares surged 14.5% on Wednesday after chairman Ryan Cohen bought more of the stock. Cohen purchased 100,000 additional GME shares Tuesday through his investment firm RC Ventures. That brought his ownership stake to 11.9%. Fellow meme stock AMC Entertainment (AMC) rallied alongside GameStop, closing 13.6% higher on Wednesday.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: U.S. Crude Supply Shrinks
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: -141 (-0.4%) SPX Futures: -23 (-0.5%) NASDAQ Futures: -113 (-0.8%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping as oil prices rise following an unexpected drop in U.S. crude supplies. Let’s get right to it! U.S. Crude Inventory Shrinks Oil prices are up today after a new report showed crude inventories in the U.S. declined last week. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 3.1% to over $112 per barrel while Brent crude futures are up 3.2% to over $119 per barrel. This comes after the American Petroleum Institute’s supply report showed crude stockpiles in the U.S. fell by 4.3 million barrels in the week ending March 18. The Energy Information Administration is set to release its latest inventory data today. Consensus estimates are for that report to show U.S. crude supplies were unchanged last week. Traders Hike Fed Expectations Traders are expecting the Fed to get more aggressive on inflation this year than the latest dot plot shows. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 66.1% of traders believe the bank will hike rates by 0.5% at the next meeting in May. More than 64% of traders also believe the bank will implement a 0.5% rate hike at the June meeting. That would put rates in a range of 1.25% to 1.5% after the June 15 meeting. That’s higher than the Fed’s plans for 6 more 0.25% rate hikes this year, putting rates at 1.9% by year-end. More hawkish Fed officials, like St Louis President James Bullard, have said rates should be above 3% by the end of this year. In a Bloomberg interview Tuesday, Bullard said, “faster is better” when it comes to rate hikes. More Fed officials are set to speak today including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester at 10:00 a.m. ET and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly at 11:45 a.m. ET. GameStop Spikes as Chairman Buys More Stock GameStop (GME) shares are rallying 7.5% in premarket trade after chairman Ryan Cohen upped his stake in the company. Regulatory filings show Cohen bought another 100,000 GME shares on Tuesday. He now owns 9,101,000 GameStop shares, bringing his stake to 11.9%. The stock purchases were made through Cohen’s investment company RC Ventures. General Mills Rallies After Raising Guidance General Mills (GIS) shares are up 3.2% ahead of the open after beating fiscal Q3 profit expectations and raising its guidance. The food company reported adjusted earnings of $0.84 per share on $4.538 billion in revenue. That topped analysts’ expectations for adjusted EPS of $0.78 on $4.545 billion in revenue. General Mills also hiked its full-year guidance, expecting sales growth of 5% vs the previous 4% to 5%. Wall Street was only expecting 3.7% growth this year. Adobe Slips Despite Earnings Beat Adobe (ADBE) shares are slipping 3.4% in premarket trade despite beating fiscal Q1 expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings of $3.37 per share on $4.26 billion in revenue. That topped analysts’ expectations for adjusted EPS of $3.34 on $4.24 billion in revenue. That was a new record-high for quarterly revenue at Adobe and was up 9% year-over-year. Adobe’s executive vice president and CFO said the results “reflect the company’s strong execution and resilience through unprecedented circumstances”. The company forecast fiscal Q2 revenue of $4.34 billion and earnings of $3.30 per share. The guidance was short of analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom line. Adobe said it expects a $75 million revenue reduction this year after halting sales of its products in Russia and Belarus. The company still maintained its full-year forecast. Refinance Demand Plunges as Mortgage Rates Spike Mortgage rates are continuing to surge as Treasury yields spike. New data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows the average 30-year contract rate jumped to 4.5% last week from 4.27% the previous week. Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 2% for the week and tumbled 12% compared to a year ago. Refinance applications dropped 14% weekly and plunged 54% annually. FHA and VA loans saw the largest drop in demand, signaling lower-income homebuyers are dropping out of the market. Most economists previously forecast rates would be at just 4.5% by the end of this year. Mortgage rates closely track the movement of the 10-year Treasury yield, which spiked to the highest level since May of 2019 Tuesday. The yield is down slightly this morning to 2.37%. February New Home Sales Preview The Census Bureau releases its February new home sales report at 10:00 a.m. ET. That’s expected to show sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 805,000 units last month from 801,000 in January. But data from the Mortgage Bankers Association last week showed the number of new home purchase applications fell 1% from January to February. On an annual basis, those applications tumbled 3.9% compared to February 2021. In Case You Missed It Tesla (TSLA) shares rallied 7.9% Tuesday as the electric automaker opened its new gigafactory in Germany. CEO Elon Musk hosted a ribbon-cutting ceremony at Giga-Berlin. Tesla company delivered its first German-made vehicles to 30 customers at the event. The company expects to produce more than 500,000 vehicles at the factory every year. Nvidia (NVDA) shares slipped 0.8% Tuesday despite the chipmaker unveiling new products. The company said its new H100 graphics chip can significantly speed up the computing time for some AI training models. The new GPU will be available in Q3 and will also be used to build Nvidia’s new “Eos” supercomputer. The company also unveiled a new processor chip, called the Grace CPU Superchip, that will be available in the first half of 2023.
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