Category Archives for Scott Redler Power Plays
Trading Tesla: 7 Lessons from an Epic Bear Smash
Every once in a while, a stock comes along that defines the times. In 2019-2020, that stock was electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA). Tesla’s stock price went from under $40 to nearly $200 in 8 months, and dominated the news headlines along the way. Tesla was getting more attention than just any stock out there, aside from maybe Apple (AAPL).Some traders made fortunes. Others had their hearts broken. Two big things were happening:Bears ignored powerfully bullish technical signals Bulls pushed things beyond what seemed reasonable.And by studying this one stretch of Tesla’s price action, you can learn a lot about momentum, risk management, permabears, and the power of a cult of personality.I’ve distilled Tesla’s big run into 7 important lessons, which you’ll start learning right now.Scott Redler’s Positions as of 11/9/2021 at 3:34 p.m. ET.1. Understand That Some Stocks Are Just Plain DifferentSome stocks have such a powerful story that investors will routinely ignore short-term bumps in the road.Amazon (AMZN) is a great example. It’s missed on earnings plenty of times and had its fair share of bad news, but people have believed in the long-term story so much that every dip gets bought. Very few companies command that type of respect, so Amazon is basically in its own category.The long-term chart says it all:Tesla is also just plain different from the crowd in that it routinely goes from “left for dead” to “can’t be stopped.”Call it… the Elon Musk factor. Not many CEOs can get away with smoking pot with Joe Rogan. And that’s not the only trouble Tesla’s survived: there was the infamous ‘funding secured’ tweet, which attracted the attention of the SEC:Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 7, 2018 What sets Tesla apart is its unique power to be forgiven for its misdeeds.There are core believers that are ready to juice the stock up at any given moment.These folks are 100% convinced in Tesla’s ability to succeed in electric cars, solar power, energy storage, and whatever Elon Musk comes up with next.And there are shorts that believe the company is just one step away from failure.So Tesla is a cornered animal.You can’t turn your back on it.Because every time Tesla seems like it’s on the verge of disaster, or that the stock’s just gone too far too fast, Elon Musk pulls a rabbit out of the hat.And just when it seems like it’s blue skies ahead, it stumbles. Tesla is a truly unpredictable stock — especially for a large cap.You never know what’s coming next.2. Price Action RulesIf you follow me on Twitter, you know that I follow the 8 & 21 day moving averages very, very closely. They’re my short-term momentum monitor. When stocks are trending above the 8 & 21 day exponential moving averages, I don’t fight them. The #1 reason traders lose on shorts is because they look at a chart and say “that’s gone too far. It has to go down.” But stocks like Tesla go too far all the time. It’s in their very nature. If a stock goes from $20 to $40 in the blink of an eye, you can’t count out $50. And if it gets to $50, you can’t count out $60, etc.Now, before you turn the page, look at the chart below. It is naked aside from two moving averages. What do you see? I see a lot of opportunities. Let’s break it down step by step.A) The Earnings Gap Holds On October 24, 2019, Tesla had a big pro earnings gap that woke it up. That was the moment we knew it was coming alive. And then it didn’t fill a single penny of the gap. That’s a sign of strength you can’t ignore, and should have been a wakeup call for the shorts.B) Cybertruck ConsolidationIn mid-Nov. to mid-December, Tesla had a healthy consolidation, with the 8 & 21 day refusing to break. As we’ll discuss later in more detail, this was during the Cybertruck launch drama, which was a pivotal time for the stock.C) Major Breakout LevelYou saw before how quick the short-term move was, but it’s also helpful to view things on a longer time frame because when historic levels get broken, they attract a lot of traders’ attention.And in this case, we’re talking about the Major Breakout Level at $76, which was a prior high for the stock.Turns out, what came next was even more explosive than I could have imagined!D) Accelerating Above the 8 DayThis was one of the most powerful moves I’ve ever seen. It was straight out of 1999.From December 5, 2019 to February 11, 2020, Tesla did not test the 21 day a single time.There was a quick test of the 8 day on February 6, but it was quickly reclaimed.E) The Parabolic MoveDo we really need to explain this? Tesla went absolutely wild, hitting $193.80.So what am I saying? Price action rules. Period!This trend demanded respect! And speaking of respect…3. Respect Stocks That Refuse to DieLet’s talk about the Cybertruck, which Elon Musk unveiled on November 21, 2019:Here are some headlines from the event:But how did the chart react to the Cybertruck launch, which included Elon Musk accidentally breaking a window? Let’s move in for a closer look: Tesla gapped down after the Cybertruck announcement.And then, on November 26, Elon Musk tweeted that preorders hit 250,000, which basically nullified all of the criticism.By refusing to break the 8 & 21 day, Tesla was telling you it wasn’t going down without a fight.And then when the Cybertruck announcement gap was filled with the 8 & 21 day being reclaimed, that was a sign sentiment was turning very positive.The lesson: if a stock refuses to die, show it some respect. 4. Be Careful When Hot Stocks Extend From the 8 DayI did very well with Tesla from the long side, especially with the call options and call spreads I bought in November.But I also sold call options to give me short exposure 4 separate times when it got super-extended from the 8
Continue Reading -->Adding a Cannabis Name to Power Plays…
I just added a cannabis name to my Power Plays service. Why? Most of the time, the group is EXTREMELY hard. The stocks can go down whether the news is good or bad. Look at this chart of the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ): MJ is up just +2.4% +YTD. For comparison: SPY is up 21% QQQ is up 20% XLE (energy) is up 53% The F.A.N.G. stocks are up 27% But once or twice a year, the cannabis sector is ripe to catch up — and it typically happens in the fourth quarter. And this particular name I’m selecting for Power Plays seem primed for an early January effect move. (the January effect seems to happen a little earlier each year) Want in? Join Power Plays with a $39 monthly subscription and you’ll get my full take, plus a $95 bonus on me. Limited time! Click here to learn all the details!
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler Interviewed on The SimCast Show
Want to get to know Scott Redler a little better? Watch Episode 2 of The SimCast episode, where Scott discusses moving averages, the Red Dog Reversal, and more! When you’re done, click here to check out Scott’s new service Power Plays!
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