Sami Abusaad on the Trading Nut Podcast
Want to get to know Sami Abusaad? Then watch his appearance on the Trading Nut Podcast: Sami goes over: The HUGE loss that drive him to get a real trading education How he got started in the industry What it really takes to succeed Why your personality matters HUGE when it comes to being profitable Where people go wrong in trading And MORE!
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Sloppy Action in Semis
SPY has had four hard down days since breaking the accelerated trend around $460. That confirmed the Bearish tape after losing the 8/21 day up near $468. We’ll see if we can play some type of oversold bounce today. Let’s see if we reclaim Friday’s low of $437.95. Under there is a micro spot at $432 and then a more major one at $426.The semis got sloppy like most tech sectors. SOXL broke below the 8/21 day and strength was sold all week as it hit $45.81 yesterday. See if there’s a scalp long vs. a 5-15-30 minute low or if it reclaims the $43.42 pivot low from Friday. It’s broken like everything else. NVDA is purely a tactical trade as long as we are in this type of tape. It was rejected last week around $285 and then broke $271. Some did well short. It gave a red to green trade Friday and then rolled over. Maybe there’s an opportunity vs. a 5-15-30 minute low around the 200 day if we get a signal to buy. See if it reclaims Friday’s low at $232.66. AMD lost special status as it broke the 8/21 day around $144 and it has been for sale ever since then. It broke $125 to give clues of more selling in the semis. It gives some two way action like Friday long and short. Now, see if there’s a signal to buy for a red to green trade. The 200 day is right here. See if it reclaims Friday’s low of $118.39.Positions Disclosure as of 1/24/2022 at 8:54 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Traders Don’t Want Tesla. They Want Gold
Traders were very bearish last week — and they were right to be negative, because it was another lousy week for the market. In this week’s sentiment survey, the bearishness extended, and we’re at an interesting inflection point — traders are more bullish on gold than on any other asset, including Tesla (TSLA). SPX Bulls Still Hard to Find The S&P 500 is down 8% year-to-date, with major relatives weakness in high-growth stocks. So it’s no surprise traders are bearish, with just 37% of survey respondents bullish on the market for the next 30 days. Bitcoin Sentiment Drops BIG Just 34% of surveyed traders are bullish on Bitcoin, which is no surprise given Bitcoin’s big drop on Saturday. Bitcoin is now down almost 30% year-to-date as risk assets remain out of favor. Apple Sentiment Still Bearish Apple (AAPL) sentiment rebounded from last week’s record low of 37%, but only slightly. Tesla Perks Up, But It’s Still Unloved Tesla (TSLA) also perked up a bit from last week, but not by much. Gold Bulls Are here 71% of survey respondents said they are bullish on gold, making it the most favored asset in this week’s survey. Oil Sentiment Flattish Oil prices and energy stocks have been ripping in 2022, so it’s no surprise traders still like oil. The Big Question, Again: Does Negative Sentiment Mean We Are Bottoming Out? Last week, we asked “Does Negative Sentiment Mean We Are Bottoming Out?” Because the market has a tendency to turn up just when people. And right now, traders clearly favor commodities over risky stocks. For now, traders remain fearful, with SPX futures in the red. But if you’re looking for guidance in this tough market, you can check out this special Sami Abusaad deal.
Continue Reading -->Markets in Turmoil? It’s Ugly Chart Time!
The S&P 500 is down -7.7% so far in 2022, but market participants agree — this is one of the toughest markets in some time. First, let’s get meta. Our last “Markets in Turmoil” article was released on Saturday, December 4, 2021 — the day after the December 3 low in the S&P 500. Since we perfectly bottom-ticked that move, we’re curious to see if the market skyrockets Monday. But for now, things are looking quite shaky with the S&P closing below the 200 day moving average for the first time since June 26, 2020. Interestingly enough, the T3 Live community nailed the downturn. In last weekend’s sentiment survey, just 33% of traders were bullish on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days — a huge decrease from the past few weeks:The Growth Stock EffectCathie Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) was an absolute monster during the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. ARKK was up over 150% in 2020…. but things have certainly gone South, as you can see on the chart: ARKK is now down -24.4% year-to-date and is -55.2% below that $160 high from back in February 2021.With the Fed taking away the punch bowl as rates rise, growth stocks have been torn apart. One prime example is major ARKK holding Robinhood (HOOD), which is down 85% from its post-IPO high of $85: We are also seeing big time weakness in Biotech (IBB): Semiconductors (SMH) were a MASSIVE source of leadership in 2021, rising +41%. But SMH is down -12% in 2022.VIX Approaching December Highs The VIX is up, but even with the growth stock meltdown, it is not quite at the December highs. What does this mean in plain English? Well, the VIX uses prices of various S&P 500 options to measure traders’ expectations of volatility. So traders are showing some fear, but not as much as in early December. Helpful Link: Our Primer on the VIXThe Bitcoin Beatdown Bitcoin is now down -23.8% year-to-date as traders continue to shed risk. No surprise there — and it will be interesting to see if Bitcoin buyers step up to buy the dip. Meanwhile, Ethereum is in even worse shape with a -36.8% YTD drop:Housing Stocks Busted UpFew traders follow housing stocks — but they’ve been a big source of action for the past couple of years. With interest rates spiking, the ITB ETF is now down -16.5% in 2022 after a blistering +48.6% run in 2021.The Ultimate Push PullThe market has two opposing forces at work: Downward Momentum: risk assets are cratering Negative Sentiment: traders are VERY bearish, which typically happens near bottoms, not tops. So the question now is, have we reached the point of maximum fear? Is higher inflation, the supply chain crunch, and a less accommodative Fed all priced in? Let us know in the comments, or by joining the T3 Sentiment Survey Panel!
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Nowhere to Hide in Banks
SPX futures are -50 and we’ll see if this ascending channel breaks. Does it stay below 4614 or reclaim it to relieve some pressure? 4582 is support below with major support at 4500. Tech is underperforming and JPM’s action proves you just can’t hide in value or banks.I got out of my banks last Wednesday because I don’t hold through earnings – which is a good thing considering how these names are acting after the prints. JEF and JPM got hit on results. GS under pressure this morning. XLF held the $40.34 pivot. See if that holds. JPM underwhelmed on earnings and had a big gap down with a hole in its chart. Sometimes there is a better entry the week after earnings. See how this handles Friday’s low of $156.90 and I’ll see patiently if I want to enter again. GS failed to impress exactly when Wall Street said you had to be long banks. Now they are testing the 200 day. See if GS can hold the $366 area. Otherwise it can go a lot lower.Positions Disclosure as of 1/18/2022 at 8:51 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Traders Hate Tesla and Apple
2022 is starting off on a tough note for stocks, with the S&P 500 dropping -2.2% and growth stocks getting smashed across the board. And our latest sentiment survey reflects the trouble, with traders turning bearish almost across the board… and yes, that includes Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL). SPX Bulls Disappear January tends to be a good month for stocks, but the tough action has traders VERY skeptical. Just 33% of survey respondents are bullish on the SPX for the next 30 days — the lowest reading since we started this survey in October 2021. Bitcoin Sentiment Still Weak Last week, just 37% of traders were bullish on Bitcoin. And while that number rose to 44% this week, it’s still pretty low. Apple Sentiment Hits Record Low Market leader Apple (AAPL) is facing a lot of doubters. Just 37% of traders are bullish on the stock for the next 30 days, which is by far the weakest reading in our history. Tesla Is HATED Sentiment towards Tesla (TSLA) also hit a record low, with just 32% of survey respondents expecting the stock to rise in the next 30 days. Gold Bullishness Slipping But Still Elevated Gold sentiment fell slightly week-over-week but it is still elevated relative to most assets in our survey. Oil Sentiment Flattish Oil prices and energy stocks have been ripping in 2022, so it’s no surprise traders remain optimistic on oil, with 69% expecting the price of oil to rise in the next 30 days. The Big Question: Does Negative Sentiment Mean We Are Bottoming Out? While we’ve only been running this survey since October 2021, it’s clear that traders are spooked. Even tried and true market leaders like Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) are facing major doubts. And it seems like traders only trust energy, which is no surprise given that crude oil is up 11% year-to-date, with XLE up 24% and OIH up 16%. So the big question now is does the negativity mean we are bottoming out? It’s tough to say — but if you’re looking for guidance in this touch market, you can check out this special Sami Abusaad deal.
Continue Reading -->Derrick Talks to The Simcast
Derrick recently visited the team at The Simcast to talk about his strategies and mentorship style. He also gives listeners an inside look at what it’s like to start at a prop desk, plus how his background prepared him to become a trader. Check out a recording of the conversation below! Derrick and John will discuss: How the COVID-19 pandemic changed his trading career His first foray into trading as a kid What happened when he graduated college in the middle of the 2008/2009 crisis How he transitioned from sales trading to prop trading The trading lessons he’s learned from kickboxing
Continue Reading -->Meet Derrick Oldensmith
Derrick Oldensmith is a pro trader and head of T3 Trading Group’s trading desk. And in this in-depth interview on the TIB podcast, you can get to know him. Listen in and learn: What working at 7-11 taught Derrick about money and life How he became interested in the stock market Why he left his sales trader job to join T3 What Derrick loves about trading The lessons he learned from the 2008 financial crisis The hard realization he made when he joined T3 Why making money is a pure numbers game Why money management rules are critical to success This is a fascinating look at the ups and downs of professional trading, so jump in and listen. P.S. Give the video a like and comment to help support the TIB podcast!
Continue Reading -->The Selloff Shock
The market had a selloff last week, which not even Sami saw coming initially. What finally tipped him off? And how should you play the market this week based on your sentiment? In this video, Sami explains: – What he thinks will happen in QQQ – How CSCO is faring 22 years after the top of the tech bubble – Which name has carried over from last week – How market activity would affect his ideas for the week – The open position that still looks good to short
Continue Reading -->Traders Turn on Bitcoin
What’s the big takeaway in this week’s sentiment survey? Traders have turned in Bitcoin! So let’s jump in and see what’s going on. SPX Bulls Keep Backing Off January tends to be a good month for stocks, but traders have become much much less bullish over the past two weeks, thanks to the selloff. Bitcoin Sentiment Collapses Just 37% of traders are bullish on Bitcoin — the lowest level we have ever seen since we launched this survey in mid-October. Given how hard Bitcoin has been dropping, this is no surprise – though this week-over-week drop is staggering. Apple Bears Come Out to Play Apple (AAPL) has been caught up in the growth stock meltdown, and bullishness fell for the second week in a row. Tesla Bulls Disappear Tesla (TSLA) bullishness dropped big from last week as a result of the growth stock meltdown. Gold Bullishness Slips Gold sentiment tends to be all over the place from week to week. And this week, there was a slight drop from 72% to 66%. Oil Sentiment Flattish Oil prices have been on the rise since early December, and that’s certainly had a big impact on oil sentiment.
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