Traders Don’t Have the Tax Bill Blues… Yet
Two weeks ago, I said “volatility is finally picking up!” Just like we’ve seen throughout 2017, like clockwork, the bulls came back in to push all indices up to fresh record highs. On Thursday, the S&P 500 set a new all-time high at 2657.54, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing over 24,000 for the first time ever. Traders have been buying because they expect a tax reform bill. But on Thursday evening, the GOP push hit a wall as some lawmakers objected to the bill because of concerns over the Federal deficit. That sent futures down Friday morning, so let’s see how traders are feeling in the face of sudden uncertainty. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Yesterday, I pointed out that the VIX was surprisingly strong despite an impressive stock rally. This morning, the VIX is up 2.1% at 11.52, giving us a 3-month spread at 3.33, indicating traders are bullish. But keep an eye on the VIX. It’s been up for 5 of the past 6 days, and if equity markets weaken, it could spike. This gives us a 3-month spread of about +3.95, which means traders are very bullish. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is 73, up substantially from 54 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, so a reading of 73 qualifies as moderately greedy. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 35.9% of individual investors are bullish. This is flat from last week’s 35.5% reading, but it’s still way off the 45.1% level from three weeks ago, which itself was the highest since since January 5, 2017. The long-term average is 38.5%, so a reading of 35.9% is basically neutral. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.55 on Thursday, which is well below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.574, which is very, very low. In fact, it’s the lowest 10-day moving average since December 16, 2016. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure short-term bullishness, is 0.590. That’s the lowest since December 21, 2016. These numbers point to aggressive bullishness. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (up from 2 last week) 1 neutral (down from 2 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) The permabears are still saying that everone’s all-in bullish and 100% complacent… and they’re right. However, keep in mind that sentiment was even more positive back on October 6 when I declared: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. Of course, I hedged myself by adding that “the bulls may be insane… but they may also be right.” And they were right! All the indices have hit multiple record highs since then, while the bears are still on the floor crying. But maybe things are changing. Tax reform is now a mystery and the VIX may be on an upswing. If the bulls rush to the exits, they may face some trouble — there’s an awful lot of them, and only so many can fit through the door at once…
Continue Reading -->T3’s Top 10: Our Most Popular Articles for November 2017
What’s popular with the thousands of traders that make up the T3 Live community? You’re about to find out with our top 10 articles for November 2017, ranked by visits to our website. You can get a look at a top trader’s account statements showing $78K+ in profits from 4 weeks of trading, watch Scott Redler’s best-ever webinar, and even learn to game plan like a top trader. We’ll start with number 10 and work our way down to number 1: 10) $78,059.89 in 4 Weeks of Trading Earnings Sami’s no one hit wonder. Watch this video and you’ll see Sami’s actual account statements that show $78,059.89 in net profits since October 16. 9) You Just Lost $5,000 Trading. What Do You Do Next? How can you recover after a losing day? What do you do when you’re frustrated and angry because you know you could have done better? 8) How Implied Volatility Works In our introduction to options trading, we discussed some basics of options, like the differences between calls and puts, how options contracts work, and why options is a zero sum game. Now we’re going to dig into the single most important options pricing concept: implied volatility. 7) 6 Tips for Picking the Right Stocks for Day Trading You can spend years learning about moving averages, gaps, trendlines, and indicators. But if you’re day trading the wrong stocks, you’re setting yourself up for failure. 6) Black Room Game Planning with Sami Abusaad Ever want a look at a top pro trader’s watchlist? This is your chance to get the inside scoop on Sami’s top trades. 5) Video | Knowing Exactly When to Trade Rob explains how to get that feeling of conviction by knowing exactly when you should be in a trade, and WHY. Enjoy today’s 9 minute training video. 4) Sami Abusaad: $12K+ in Profit in 1 Day with Nautilus Nightly Game Plan Moderator Sami Abusaad takes you through an Earnings Play in fitness equipment company Nautilus (NLS). In total, Sami earned $12,115.50 in this one-day trade! 3) Trading Scans | The Foundation for Winning Trades In this special video, you’ll learn how using trading scans can unlock highly profitable opportunities. You’ll learn how to spot potential capitulations at the end of a momentum trade, plus explosions to new trends. 2) 6 Tips for Picking the Right Stocks for Day Trading If you ever find yourself asking yourself “what should I trade now,” then this article is for you. We’ve put together a list of 6 simple, effective tips for picking the right stocks for day trading. 1) Scott Redler Talks the Red Dog Reversal, H-Sell Setup, ROKU, and MORE! In this special live training webinar hosted by TradeStation, T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler breaks down his 2 favorite trading strategies: the Red Dog Reversal, and the H-Sell Setup.
Continue Reading -->Black Room – Profitably Trading Unexpected Gaps
Black Room Lessons Profitably Trading Unexpected Gaps Sami shows you how to spot the most profitable gap plays.>> CLICK HERE TO JOIN SAMI IN THE BLACK ROOM <<.
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today?We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:Why a top strategist thinks Bitcoin can hit $100K+How a expert trader builds his afternoon watch listFinding high-probability trades midday when the market is selling offAnd more!So check out these links right now and get up to speed:1) Bitcoin is ‘digital gold’ for millennials and could reach the ‘$100,000 range,’ says strategist Tom Lee (CNBC) Bitcoin is essentially “digital gold” for millennials, and the cryptocurrency could easily achieve the $100,000 range, Wall Street strategist Tom Lee told CNBC on Wednesday. The digital currency surpassed $10,000 on Tuesday and was approaching $11,000 Wednesday morning.Continue Reading ==>2) Goldman Warns Highest Valuations Since 1900 Mean Pain Is Coming (Bloomberg) A prolonged bull market across stocks, bonds and credit has left a measure of average valuation at the highest since 1900, a condition that at some point is going to translate into pain for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.Continue Reading ==>3) How to Build an Afternoon Trading List (T3 Live) In this exclusive video, you can see how legendary trader Sami Abusaad builds his personal afternoon watch list.Watch the Video ==>4) Interview with Charlie Bilello of Pension Partners (All Star Charts) This week on the podcast we have Charlie Bilello, Chartered Market Technician and Director of Research at Pension Partners, LLC.Continued Reading ==>5) Finding Trade Setups with the Quant Edge Strategy (T3 Live) In this special video, Rob Smith, creator of the Quant Edge trading strategy, breaks down some relative strength plays amid a mid-day selloff. Watch the Video ==>6) If you love Amazon, then this high-flying stock could be a sure bet for 2018 (MarketWatch)Laying down his top predictions for 2018, this strategist says Tesla shares could nearly double to $600 next year and reach a market cap of $100 billion.Continue Reading ==>7) Why Bitcoin futures and a shoddy market structure pose problems (Financial Times) There’s a popular opinion in cryptoland that the launch of bitcoin futures by the CME in December will trigger an investing rush as institutional investors and hedge funds wade into the market in size. This in turn, the theory goes, will see the price zoom even higher.Continue Reading ==>8) 9 Ways to Destroy Your Account with Options (T3 Live) Options trading is fun. Options trading is sexy. And options trading can destroy your account if you don’t know what you’re doing.Continue Reading ==>9) Uber’s third-quarter net loss widens to $1.46 billion: source (Reuters) Uber Technologies Inc’s [UBER.UL] quarterly losses widened, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, as the ride-hailing company wades through legal troubles and faces regulatory scrutiny across the globe.Continue Reading ==> 10) How to Launch a New Business in One Week (The Tim Ferriss Experiment/YouTube)
Continue Reading -->Black Room Afternoon List | Open House Training
Black Room-Building Your Afternoon List Watch Sami Abusaad review today’s list of stocks to trade.Then click here to join the open house this week. Watchlist Review with Sami Abusaad | Black Room Open House Day 2Onine Open House 11-27 to 12-1 How to Build an Afternoon Watchlist Watch this new video then register fot the live training. == > https://www.t3live.com/blog/t3-live-black-room-open-house/Posted by T3 Live on Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Continue Reading -->Black Room Game Planning | Open House Training 11-27-17
Black Room-Game Plan Video | 11-27-17 Watch Sami Abusaad review today’s list of stocks to trade.Then click here to join the open house this week.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: Traders Still Happy with the Low Vol Grind
In last week’s sentiment report, I said “volatility is finally picking up!” And then it collapsed all over again as the post-election bull market raged on, with all major indices including the Russell 2000 breaking to new all-time highs. The VIX fell back under 10, and the bears are once again asking “is this low-volatility grind ever going to end? Traders were in a pretty decent mood before Thanksgiving, and they’re looking happier Friday morning with futures bid higher. So let’s take a fresh look at our sentiment indicators to see how traders are feeling on today’s Black Friday “holiday.” (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Last Wednesday, the VIX hit a 3-month high at 14.51. It’s around 9.85 Friday morning.. That’s extremely low by historical standards, but it’s become the new normal… at least since the summer. This gives us a 3-month spread of about +3.95, which means traders are very bullish. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is at 54, up slightly from 50 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, so a reading of 54 is neutral. Before last Thursday’s big reversal higher, it was actually at 35. On October 6, it hit multi-year highs at 95, so it’s obviously come back down to earth. Funny — a lot of folks thought that 95 reading meant we were peaking. But markets kept pushing higher, showing how difficult it is to time tops and bottoms with sentiment indicators. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 35.5% of individual investors are bullish. This is up from last week’s 29.3% reading, but it’s still way off the 45.1% level from two weeks ago, which itself was the highest since since January 5, 2017. The long-term average is 38.5%, so a reading of 35.5% is basically neutral. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.57 on Thursday, which is well below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.629, which is below the long-term average. Both point to bullishness. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 2 bullish (up from 1 last week) 2 neutral (flat) 0 bearish (down from 1 last week) The permabears are still saying that everone’s all-in bullish and 100% complacent… but the numbers point to moderate bullishness. If you want to see full-on 100% bullish insanity, go back to October 6 when I declared the following: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. Of course, I hedged myself by adding that “the bulls may be insane… but they may also be right.” And they were right! The Russell 2000 shook off its cobwebs, tech picked up steam, and the bears got take to the woodshed. I suspect that with a few more days of upside, sentiment could go full on psycho bullish. And that’s not out of the question. Friday’s off to a great start already, and low trading volumes (due to the holiday) could exacerbate movement to the upside.
Continue Reading -->Chef Scott Redler Shares His Secret Turkey Recipe
Family + friends + food + football + fitness (say that 10 times quick!) makes Thanksgiving one of my favorite holidays. And believe it or not, I’m pretty handy in the kitchen. I cook like I trade, and I trade like I cook. I keep things simple, and I go with what works. I’ve been using this turkey recipe since my parents moved to Florida 14 years ago, and it’s what I’ll be serving my family on Thursday afternoon. Ingredients List Turkey 3-4 long celery sticks 2 sticks of butter 2 oranges 3-4 lemons 2 sticks of butter 4 whole onions 3 big hunks of garlic Salt Pepper Paprika Ms. Dash seasoning 1 can of pineapples 1 jar of orange or apricot jam The quantity of ingredients depends on the size of your turkey. Just scale up or down as you see fit. We usually get a frozen 20-pounder. And oh yeah — make sure you have a quality knife! It will make your life a lot easier. I’ll take the bird out of the freezer Monday morning so it will be defrosted by Wednesday evening, when I do my prep work. You know me. Whether I’m trading, running, or cooking, I never show up for battle unprepared. If you start getting things ready before Thanksgiving, you’ll get better results with less stress on Thanksgiving… just like in trading! I’ll dice up 4 whole onions and 3 big hunks of garlic, and toss them in a large bowl. I then add salt, pepper, paprika, some Mrs. Dash seasoning, and mix it all up. Then, I’ll stuff it into the turkey. I’ll also put half a can of pineapples in there, and jam a stick of butter right in the middle of all. Then, I pour some orange juice and lemon juice over the turkey skin — just enough to get it wet. In a separate bowl, I’ll mix up more salt, pepper, and paprika for the skin. I spread it all over, making sure to get in all the nooks and crevices. Don’t be cheap! Then, I’ll wrap the turkey in a big bag and leave it in the refrigerator overnight. On Thanksgiving morning, I’ll cut a few long celery sticks in half and put them on the bottom of the pan. Then, I take the turkey out of the bag and place it on the pan. There will be a lot of juice in the bag. Transfer it to the bottom of the pan, and be careful not to spill any. It’s a real pain to clean up! Then I’ll mix up more salt, pepper, and paprika, and sprinkle it on top of the turkey. Now it’s time to stick the bird in the oven. After an hour, start basting it every 15-20 minutes. Take juices from the cavity and squeeze it on top of the turkey. Also, rotate the pan every hour or so. It should take about 4 hours to cook. Just follow what your meat thermometer says. When there is about 20 minutes to go, pour a jar of orange or apricot jam in a bowl, and add a softened stick of butter to it. Mix it together, and brush the turkey with it. Stick the turkey back in, but keep a close eye on it. We want a nice crispy skin, but we don’t want to burn it. Once the turkey’s done, take it out and let it sit for an hour before you carve it. By the way, if you’re not experienced in the art of carving up a turkey, this video will help you get it right and impress your family: Delay your carving as long as you can — turkey tastes best just when it’s cut! If you give this recipe a shot, take a picture, post it on Twitter, and tag me (@reddogT3) so I can see it! Have a great week, and an even better Thanksgiving!
Continue Reading -->Sami Abusaad: Swing Trade Management in an Explosive Earnings Season
P.S. Earnings Season is still going strong. Be sure to check out this FREE Earnings Season resource: The Ultimate Guide to Trading Earnings Season ** In this special video, Nightly Game Plan Moderator Sami Abusaad walks you through his open swing trade positions so you can see how an expert trader manages an active trading portfolio. Sami goes through: A breakout/1-2-3 combination in American Outdoor Brands (AOBC) A climactic play in Newell Brands (NWL) Maiden Holdings (MHLD), which Sami is retargeting after a $5,449.09 profit two weeks ago The Weekly Sell Setup in Unisys (UIS) The Earnings Play in Twitter (TWTR) And MORE! By the way, have you seen last week’s video, which shows Sami’s actual account statements with $78,059.89 in profits since October 16? Watch it here: Watch this video and see: Sami’s $78,059.89 in total gains realized this earning season, which you can see in his actual online account statements The exact chart setup in MTSI that delivered a $4,506 profit in one day Another successful trade in Universal Corp. (UVV)
Continue Reading -->How to Fix Broken Trading
Are you too busy trying to be right to make any money… Once you understand, and USE this lesson, everything changes.If you’re like me, you word hard. Every day you scan hundreds of charts looking for money, and looking for the clues you missed. Clues that would have indicated “hold this trade longer,” “don’t take this trade,” that type of stuff.You believe if you find the answer THEN you will be profitable. I have news for you, I did that for years, and never found it.But I DID stumble into how to fix my inconsistency. It was practically an accident. I wanted to build a list of stocks to scan, my software required me to add shares to the portfolio, so I gave all 100 stocks 100 shares.Every day I logged in and scanned for ideas, completely ignoring the actual portfolio because I was only looking for setups.One day I noticed the portfolio was profitable. There were A LOT of losing trades, but the aggregate was profitable. I sat up and said, “huh, that’s interesting.”Normally I would find a few stocks to trade. If they met my criteria I would cherry -pick which ones I believed would be good trades.After my discovery, I tried something different, I traded every stock in my list, for 100 shares, with real money. When I got a signal, I entered without hesitating.No second-guessing, just enter them all.A funny thing happened. When I released myself from “being right,” and just let my edge do the work, trading became more profitable, AND LESS STRESSFUL. That was the day everything changed. Trading became fun again, and I finally felt like I could do this for a living. I no longer I felt like an impostor.Now I had control. The more trades I made, the more I earned. I was allowing my strategy to do the heavy lifting.Making this work of course, requires good trades, high-probability ideas. Now that you know HOW to fix broken trading, I’d like to ask you to give us 30 days.Give us 30 days to find your next $1,000.If you aren’t hitting your goals, if you’re trading is boom or bust, invest $7 for the next 30 days and get up to 200 high-probability trade ideas.Join the Daily Market Report with Jeff Cooper. Just $7 for the next 30 days. Get started here…
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