I’m Bullish on ARKK… Again!
Sami Abusaad argues that the market is a bit sloppy — but his bias is still bullish. Sami goes over: Why Bitcoin does not have a lot of room to fall Why he loves ARKK so much even after buying it twice The bull cases for fintech plays UPST and PYPL SBUX‘s strong technical pattern since its big gap up By the way, have you seen how strong ARKK has been in Q3? It’s up over 19%! And here are how well it’s individual holdings have done:
Continue Reading -->Bitcoin $100,000? Let’s Talk About It
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. The Bitcoin Boom has been the biggest story in the market. It’s been a major focus in the Power Plays newsletter since September 26, when I added IBIT as a position. I later added Microstrategy (MSTR) and Terawulf (WULF) as Power Plays ideas, both of which were good to us. On October 4, when Bitcoin was around $62,000 I told my Power Plays subscribers Bitcoin could hit $85,000 or higher. And on October 11, I started talking about “The Bitcoin Turkey Trot” — a huge rally into Thanksgiving. Well… we got it! On October 14, in a free blog post anyone could read, I said Bitcoin could hit $100,000+. And today, it hit a high of $99,543. This move came way faster than I expected — not that I’m complaining. So, what now? Well, I still see potential for Bitcoin to hit $100,000 to $150,000 over the next 6 months. Adoption by institutional money managers is just beginning, and of course, it helps to have friends in the White House. There are also some simple technical analysis lessons to learn here. First, you want to ride strong trends above the 8 & 21 day moving averages: Note: Power Plays is down to a 25% position in IBIT – that’s the only crypto name in Power Plays right now. Since we’re on the topic of technicals, let’s talk about another big crypto story – the Microstrategy (MSTR) meltdown. Yes, I love when stocks, ETFs, and cryptos are trending over the 8 & 21 day moving averages. But when things get extreme, you want to hit the brakes. Like with Microstrategy yesterday. When you see a stock trading 25% above the 8 day moving average, things are getting out of control! I wanted to get short Microstrategy stock because it felt like Super Micro (SMCI) back in March. Bu there was a problem — like most crypto-related stocks, Microstrategy is heavily shorted: If Bitcoin had exploded to $105,000 to $110,000 yesterday (not an unrealistic scenario), Microstrategy could have squeezed up to $700 or $800. So I took a different route than shorting MSTR itself. I bought the Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF (SMST) in the premarket. This is a double short ETF on MSTR. So if MSTR falls 5%, this is targeted to rise 10%. And I traded around it into strength. I wanted to treat SMST like an option. So if MSTR kept rallying, I could lose 50% on the trade. But at least I knew what I was risking. So to wrap up this lesson, remember 2 things: Ride trends over the 8/21 day moving average – do not fight them When a stock gets overextended over the 8 day, be very careful Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-11-22 at 11.35.38 AM
Continue Reading -->This Is My New Twilio
Twilio (TWLO) is a MASSIVE hit in Sami’s Strategic Swing Trader newsletter. (see the chart below) And he named Fiverr (FVRR) as his “new Twilio” in today’s video: Sami goes over: Why Fiverr’s weekly and monthly charts look so good The unique parallel with Twilio The bull case for stocks Vimeo (VMEO), VNET (VNET), and Talkspace (TALK). One stock he wants to short here And here’s the TWLO chart showing Sami’s entries. This chart looked so good that he added on the way up
Continue Reading -->What David Prince Expects For Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings after the market close on Wednesday with analysts expecting over $33 billion in revenue. David Prince explains why the setup isn’t great for calls into the print and how he plans to react once the report is out: David also covers: How Nvidia’s report may impact the broader semiconductor space Why Nvidia is no longer the market leader Whether Tesla (TSLA) is overbought Why his thesis has changed on XBI And more! Want to work with David? Apply to join the Inner Circle here!
Continue Reading -->[News Flash] Bitcoin $100,000 Is NOT Guaranteed
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. We have mixed markets around the world after risk happened fast. Europe and Asia are mixed and trying to figure out what’s next. SPX broke 5980-5960 which was a failure to protect the elevated area . Markets fell hard and fast and the SPX hit 5853ish. That’s our new spot to watch. If that doesn’t hold, the gap is open all the way down towards 5783. Now let’s dig into our strategy. Bitcoin became my #1 theme on October 11. It’s gone from $62Kish to $93k+ to manage IBIT and miners. We participated in Power Plays via IBIT, WULF, and MSTR. Now we’re down to only an IBIT trailer. If this action continues, it can see $100k by Christmas. But if $88kish breaks, it might get sloppy. So don’t get a false sense of security. There are no guarantees. NVDA reports earnings on Wednesday. We exited our final trailer for Power Plays Friday at $144.87, which was a good thing because the stock’s under $139 today on reports of heat issues with Blackwell. We also exited SMH for a loss. $137.60ish is a spot to watch for NVDA,and the 50-day near $132ish is even bigger. TSLA was a nice winner pre and post-election. On Friday, I sold puts and added the stock back as it showed relative strength and held the 8-day near $310ish. I’ll trim and stay with it. I’d think the $358 high will not be the high of the next month or so. But entries and exits matter. NFLX made new highs on the year. Some were long vs. the post-earnings gap of $736. Others got in when it cleared $733 to see $841+ to manage. It’s only down small after the Tyson fight which had technical problems. $816 needs to hold now. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Trading Tip for This Week: Create a Daily Routine You Enjoy The number one thing traders waste time and energy doing is… figuring out how to use their time and energy. Create a daily routine that keeps you happy and productive. This includes everything from chart reviews to gym time to coffee breaks. There’s nothing less exciting than a schedule. But the more I plan out my day ahead of time, the easier it is to concentrate on the market. Plus, I have more energy for exercise and family time, which is very important to me. Distractions kill your profits. So kill those distractions with a routine! This Week’s Calendar This week is all about Nvidia (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday: P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-11-18 at 8.53.44 AM
Continue Reading -->My #1 ETF Play Right Now
Sami Abusaad explains why the market looks bullish AND sloppy at the same time: Sami goes over: Why the QQQ was looking lousy into Powell’s speech on Friday The problem with the market near-term Why the market still looks bullish long-term How hard it will be for QQQ to make new highs Why Nvidia (NVDA) is looking very tricky into earnings on Wednesday Why IWM may be about to rally ARKK’s big transition on the monthly chart, and Sami’s 2 entry strategies A potential bottom in Alibaba (BABA) and China
Continue Reading -->Moving Averages for Swing Trading: Your 2025 Trend Analysis Guide
I can’t live without my moving averages. They’re among my most important technical analysis tools — especially when it comes to finding winning swing trade ideas.My charts would feel naked without them!Moving averages help me determine:How long (or short) I want to be in my swing trading accountWhich stocks and sectors I want to buy (or avoid)How strong the current market trend isWhat news matters, and what doesn’tI rate moving averages above news, economic data, earnings, and any indicator you can think of.If I was a starting swing trader looking to build my net worth, moving averages would be my #1 focus. Because price never lies.And through a series of new trading case studies updated for 2024, you will learn:What a moving average isHow to calculate various types of moving averagesThe specific moving averages I use in my swing trading, and how I use them to find new ideasHow to use moving averages to avoid losing stocksThe #1 myth of moving averages Editor’s Note: If you want to get Scott’s favorite idea each week, make sure you go here to check out Power Plays. It’s where Scott puts these moving average strategies to work to find potential winners. Positions Disclosure: as of 2024-11-14 at 2.26.29 PM, Scott was long AAPL, AMZN, IBIT, LCID, MSOS, TSLA, AAPL calls, AMC calls, AMZN calls, ASTS calls, GLD calls, GRPN calls, NVDA calls, OKLO calls, ONON calls, RUM calls, SOXL calls, TAN calls, XBI calls; was short SPY calls, TLSA puts, TSLA calls What Is a Moving Average? And How Are They Calculated?The first thing you need to know is how moving averages are calculated.A moving average is a stock’s average price over a specific time period.A daily moving average is the average of a stock’s daily closing prices over a certain number of days.(a weekly moving average would be the average of a stock’s weekly closing prices over a certain number of weeks)We’ll focus on the daily time frame in this tutorial since we’re talking about swing trading.For example, the 50 day moving average on a daily chart is a stock’s average closing price for the last 50 days.Every day, the newest closing price in the moving average replaces the oldest, which is why we call it ‘moving.’ It changes every day.Here’s a chart of Nvidia (NVDA) with its 50 day simple moving average. The #1 Myth About Moving AveragesYou often hear people say “moving averages don’t work” or “everyone sees the same exact moving averages on the same charts, so they have no value!”But here’s the reality: most serious technical analysts understand that a moving average is not the same as a trading strategy or even a signal. I don’t buy and sell purely because of a moving average.But moving averages do help me read the trend which improved my decision-making process.They are a big piece of the puzzle. Not the entire puzzle!What Is the Difference Between Simple and Exponential Moving Averages?There are 2 types of moving averages — simple and exponential. Each is calculated in a slightly different way. A simple moving average is just what it sounds like — a simple average of the stock price. (the closing stock price, specifically) An exponential moving average gives extra weight to recent prices, so it does a better job of measuring the near-term trend. It’s not worth getting into the math here. Here’s Google (GOOGL) with its 50 day simple (blue) and exponential (pink) moving averages.The Moving Averages I Use for Swing TradingTechnicians and traders tend to focus on the 10, 20, 50, and 200 day simple moving averages, which you can think of as follows:8 day simple moving average: very short-term trend21 day simple moving average: short term trend50 day simple moving average: intermediate trend200 simple moving average: long-term trendI use a slightly different set of moving averages in my own swing trading, and in my services like Power Plays.8 day exponential moving average: very short-term trend21 day exponential moving average: short term trend50 day exponential moving average: intermediate trend200 exponential moving average: long-term trendI use these same colors on the charts below.I use exponential moving averages in my swing trading because they are more sensitive to the recent price action, which gives me a better read on the short-term trend.Going forward in this article, all moving averages will be exponential.Is There a Difference Between an 8 and 10 Day Moving Average?You may be asking “Scott, why do you use the 8 day moving average? Why not the 10 day?”Most of the time, the 8 and 10 day moving averages will be very close together, as you can see in this ARM Holdings (ARM) chart:So are they the same thing? Pretty much.But here’s what most people miss about moving averages: It’s not the exact moving averages you use that counts.It’s how you use your moving averages to find new buying opportunities, avoid trouble, and manage your risk. When it comes to finding new swing trade ideas, I pay most attention to the 8 and 21 day exponential moving averages. I stick with them, because my brain is trained to judge the action based on those time frames.If I was using, say, the 10 and 20 day simple moving averages, I’d end up with similar results — I’d just get there in a slightly different way.Imagine you were training for a marathon.What matters more? How hard you work — or your brand of running shoes?The Power of the 8 & 21 Day Exponential Moving Averages in Swing TradingTraders often ask me why I talk about the 8 & 21 day exponential moving averages so much. Whether you see me on Fox Business, Twitter/X, or the Virtual Trading Floor®, you know I never go a few days without talking about my moving averages strategies.It’s because these moving averages are the most accurate short-term road map I’ve found.And I value moving average more than any other analysis I see out there.8 & 21 Day Moving Average Case Study I: The Bitcoin Turkey TrotOne of the biggest trading stories of the 2024 US Presidential Election was the surge in Bitcoin.I’d been very bullish on Bitcoin for many reasons — including the likelihood of
Continue Reading -->The Trump Trade Can Still Win Bigly
In Episode 8 of the T3 Brain Trust, the team explains why the Trump Rally can keep on going: This episode is JAMMED with insights from our team: JR Highlights: Bitcoin can go to $126,000 – a prediction he admits is “fully preposterous” Tesla (TSLA) could correct to $310 to $312.50 before a big rally to $400 SPX can hit 6700 in Q1 The market has undergone a massive change in character since the election He is now a “small cap megabull” The market is not pricing in GDP and wage growth, which could offset higher inflation Nvidia (NVDA) is going to $200 We are not near the top in AI because demand is being underestimated The payment processors including Block (SQ) have big upside potential Sami’s Highlights: Bitcoin has NOT gone climactic yet the way China did Tesla still looks fantastic The market rally has more room to go NVDA looks bullish right now – though he hasn’t made an opinion on earnings just yet There are not many great charts because his favorite names like Twilio (TWLO) and Zoom (ZM) have rallied so much He is mega-bullish on Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Derrick Highlights: The reason he does not trade Bitcoin – even if he thinks he can make money from it Why he was short 2 of the hottest names in the market — Palantir (PLTR) and Tesla (TSLA) Why TSLA was headed to $315 to $317 (which it reached the day after this stream) How he used the Level 2 to spot a shorting opportunity in PLTR NVDA needs a big earnings report to rally because it is hyped up He is bullish on the market overall – though interest rates and the US dollar represent a risk *Derrick Oldensmith’s Positions as of 2024-11-14 at 10:40 am ET: Long BABA, BYON, CVX, DIS, EVGN, GDX, JD, PATH, QRTEA, TELO, TSE, TZA, U; is short BITX, PLTR, TQQQ, TSLA, UPRO
Continue Reading -->This Stock Could TRIPLE
There are few beautiful charts out there. But Sami Abusaad believes Affirm Holdings (AFRM) could go from $53 to $150. Sami also goes over: Why he’s been so bullish on Twilio (TWLO) and Zoom (ZM) – both “double positions” in the Strategic Swing Trader Newsletter What is unique about AFRM’s monthly chart, and why Sami loves it The reason he likes AFRM more than PayPal (PYPL) The short-term bull case for Altice USA (ATUS) Medifast’s (MED) strong daily chart and buy setup And More!
Continue Reading -->[Updated] Tesla & Bitcoin Game Plans
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are +8. As long as SPX holds the 5960 area, this active sequence can stay constructive without too much shaking of the tree. 6017 is the all-time pivot high. Bulls are starting to talk about 6300 in Q1. Overall, I’ve playing a little defense, but select trades are still working so I’m on the hunt for new ideas. Now let’s dig into some of our focus names. Bitcoin smashed through my $85,000 target way faster than I expected. It hit $94,000 and put in a huge topping tail. So I’ll have less exposure until we get some much-needed digestion. I’ll be looking to enter WULF, CORZ, MARA and MSTR again because Bitcoin could see $100,000 by Christmas. TSLA was a big hit on the election, and Power Plays made its final exit at $345.45 on Monday. Now the game plan is to wait for the $310 area, where it could set up another big trade opportunity. JPM hit a high of $248 and has since created a tight wedge-type pattern. This might help with the next direction. Above $244, perhaps it goes higher. Below $238, and it could see the $234 gap below. XBI is still frustrating. I added it to Power Plays at $102.54 and it’s been stuck in the mud since then. The ASH conference on December 7-10 is a potential catalyst, but if this breaks below $99, I’ll think about switching gears. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-11-14 at 8.30.58 AM
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