Coffee With Greta: November Rally Pauses
Register now for tomorrow’s free trading Q&A on LinkedIn with crypto expert and trader John Divine! DJIA Futures: -31 (-0.1%) SPX Futures: -10 (-0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: -33 (-0.2%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping as the November rally pauses. Let’s get right to it! Rally Takes A Breather Futures are falling this morning after the major indexes all posted modest declines on Monday. All three are still on track for strong monthly gains, the Dow is up 6.9% so far in November, the S&P 500 has risen 8.5%, and the Nasdaq has surged 10.8%. Important economic data today includes the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, consumer confidence, and a slate of Fed speakers. While stocks are slipping, yields are inching higher. The 10-year yield is up 1 basis point at 4.40% while the 2-year yield is up 2 basis points at 4.87%. Investors are looking ahead to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge this week with the PCE price index set to be released Thursday morning. Zcaler Slides After Earnings Zscaler (ZS) shares are down 5.1% ahead of the open despite topping fiscal Q1 results and raising its guidance. Here’s how the cloud security company’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $0.67 vs $0.49 expected Revenue: $496.7 million vs $473 million expected Revenue jumped 40% year over year while billings rose 34% to $456.6 million vs $441 million expected. Zscaler’s CEO said the company is “scaling our go-to-market and R&D organizations, strengthening our foundation for the long-term growth of our business,” in order to meet growing demand. That implies higher costs and may be behind the drop in the stock. Zscaler forecast fiscal Q2 adjusted EPS between $0.57 and $0.58 on revenue of $505 million to $507 million. Analysts were anticipating guidance for $0.52 in adjusted EPS on $496 million in revenue. Shein Files For U.S. IPO Fast-fashion retailer Shein has confidentially filed to go public in the U.S. CNBC reported on the filing this morning and says the Chinese-founded retailer was last valued at $66 billion. It’s unclear what the company is currently valued at but sources say Shein could make its market debut as soon as 2024. The company recently acquired about one-third of Sparc Group, partnering up with U.S. retailer Forever 21 as part of that deal. Shein has reportedly tapped Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Morgan Stanley (MS) to be the lead underwriters on the offering. In Case You Missed It New home sales dropped more than expected in October. Data from the Census Bureau shows sales of newly built homes tumbled 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units. That was below 725,000 expected and September’s sales were revised lower to 719,000 from 759,000 originally. The median price of a new home sold in October fell to $409,300 from $422.300 in September, down 17.6% year over year. That was the lowest median price since August 2021.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Can The Rally Continue?
Register now for this week’s free trading Q&A on LinkedIn with crypto expert and trader John Divine! DJIA Futures: -58 (-0.2%) SPX Futures: -7 (-0.1%) NASDAQ Futures: -16 (-0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping after Wall Street’s fourth straight winning week. Let’s get right to it! Futures Slip, Yields Fall Both stocks and yields are down this morning as traders look to build on the market’s four-week winning streak. The 10-year Treasury yield is down 3 basis points at 4.45% with the 2-year yield down 3 basis points at 4.93%. This will be a busy week of economic data and Fed speakers. Here are the highlights: Monday: New home sales Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home prices, consumer confidence, Fed’s Waller, Goolsbee, Bowman, and Barr speak Wednesday: First revision Q3 GDP, advanced goods trade balance, Fed’s Mester speaks, Fed beige book Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, PCE price index, personal spending and incomes, Fed’s Williams speaks, pending home sales Friday: ISM manufacturing index, construction spending, Fed’s Barr, Goolsbee, and Powell speak Oil Falls Further Oil prices are falling again ahead of this week’s OPEC+ meeting. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 0.8% at just under $75 bbl while Brent crude futures are down 0.7% at just under $80 bbl. Both contracts rose slightly last week, the first weekly gain in five weeks. Analysts expect Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary supply cuts into early 2024, which would boost prices. OPEC+ is set to meet November 30. E-Commerce Stocks Rise E-commerce stocks are rising this morning as Cyber Monday kicks off. Amazon (AMZN) shares are up 0.9%, with eBay (EBAY) rising 0.4%, Walmart (WMT) up 0.2%, and Etsy (ETSY) rising 0.8%. The jump comes as new data shows a strong start to the holiday shopping season. Adobe Analytics’ holiday shopping trends data for 2023 shows online spending on Black Friday totaled $9.8 billion. That was up 7.5% compared to last year. Adobe expects Cyber Monday sales to hit $12 billion, which would be up 6.1% from last year.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Yields Retreat
Register now for the next free trading Q&A on LinkedIn with crypto expert and trader John Divine! DJIA Futures: +41 (+0.1%) SPX Futures: +11 (+0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: +67 (+0.4%) Good morning friends! Futures are rising as yields drop. Let’s get right to it! Nvidia Crushes Q3 Estimates Nvidia (NVDA) shares are up 0.4% ahead of the open after solidly beating Q3 expectations. Here’s how the chipmaker’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $4.02 vs $3.37 expected Revenue: $18.12 billion vs $16.18 billion expected Revenue surged 206% year over year. Data center revenue led those gains, up 271% to $14.51 billion vs $12.97 billion expected. Gaming segment revenue jumped 81% to $2.86 billion vs $2.68 billion expected. Nvidia forecast $20 billion in Q4 revenue, implying nearly 231% growth. But the company did warn it expects a negative impact in the current quarter from the export restrictions on chip sales to companies in China and other countries. The CFO said, “We expect that our sales to these destinations will decline significantly in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, though we believe the decline will be more than offset by strong growth in other regions.” 10-Year Yield Hits Two-Month Low Treasury yields are falling this morning as investors assess the future of interest rates. The 10-year yield is down 2 basis points at 4.37%, its lowest level since September 20. The Fed released the minutes of its last meeting on Tuesday, which showed officials did not discuss any plans for rate cuts soon. But data since that meeting has shown inflation pressures easing at a faster pace than expected. The Fed meets again December 12-13 with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing 95% of traders expecting no rate hike at that meeting. Weekly Jobless Claims Drop Weekly jobless claims dropped more than expected last week. The Labor Department reported 209,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. That was a 22,000 person drop from the week before and lower than 225,000 expected. Continuing claims fell by 25,000 to 1.840 million vs 1.875 million expected in the week ending November 11. Mortgage Demand Jumps To Six-Week High Mortgage demand continued to rise last week as rates pulled back. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume rose 3% from the previous week, to the highest level in six weeks. Purchase applications rose 4% weekly and were down 20% from a year ago. Refinance applications rose 2% weekly and were 4% lower year over year. The average 30-year fixed contract rate decreased to 7.41% from 7.61%.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Waiting For Nvidia
Register now for the next free trading Q&A on LinkedIn with crypto expert and trader John Divine! DJIA Futures: +204 (+0.6%) SPX Futures: +33 (+0.7%) NASDAQ Futures: +159 (+1.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as the rally continues. Let’s get right to it! Nvidia Earnings Day Nvidia (NVDA) shares are slipping 0.8% in premarket trade as traders look ahead to the chipmaker’s earnings report later today. The company is scheduled to report Q3 earnings after the market closes. The stock closed at a fresh all-time high of $504.09 per share on Monday. Analysts are expecting Nvidia to report year over year revenue growth of 170% and to forecast Q4 revenue growth of nearly 200%. The company does not typically provide full-year guidance but focus will be on any comments about demand in 2024. Lowe’s Drops On Revenue Miss, Guidance Cut Lowe’s (LOW) shares are down 3.7% ahead of the open after reporting mixed Q3 results and cutting its outlook. Here’s how the home improvement retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $3.06 vs $3.02 expected Revenue: $20.5 billion vs $20.9 billion expected Same-store sales dropped 7.4% from a year ago vs the 5.4% drop analysts were expecting. Lowe’s slashed its full-year outlook as sales continue to slow. The retailer now expects EPS of $13 per share on $86 billion in revenue. That’s down from the previous forecast for EPS of $13.20 to $13.60 on $87 billion to $89 billion in revenue. Kohl’s Slips As Same-Store Sales Drop Kohl’s (KSS) shares are falling 5.2% in premarket trade after beating Q3 profit expectations but missing on sales. Here’s how the retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $0.53 vs $0.35 expected Revenue: $3.843 billion vs $3.988 billion expected Same-store sales dropped 5.5% year over year vs expectations for a 3.8% decline. Kohl’s also narrowed its full-year outlook following the sales miss. The company now expects EPS of $2.30 to $2.70 vs $2.10 to $2.70 previously. Full-year net sales are expected to decline 2.8% to 4% vs previous expectations for a 2% to 4% drop.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Holiday Week
Register now for the next free trading Q&A on LinkedIn with crypto expert and trader John Divine! DJIA Futures: -6 (-0.02%) SPX Futures: +2 (+0.1%) NASDAQ Futures: +16 (+0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are flat as the Thanksgiving-shortened week of trade kicks off. Let’s get right to it! Ousted OpenAI CEO Goes To Microsoft Microsoft (MSFT) shares are up 0.4% ahead of the open after news the ousted OpenAI CEO, Sam Altman, will join Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team. Microsoft’s CEO made that announcement in a post on X late Sunday night, saying, “we’re extremely excited to share the news that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team.” He also said the company remains “committed to our partnership with OpenAI.” Altman was ousted from OpenAI by the board on Friday. OpenAI is the creator of ChatGPT and considered the current leader in the AI space. Shortened Week This will be a shortened week for traders with the market closed for Thanksgiving Thursday and there is not much on the calendar. Here are the data highlights: Monday: Conference Board leading economic index Tuesday: Existing home sales, FOMC meeting minutes Wednesday: Weekly jobless claims, Durable goods orders, Consumer sentiment Thursday: Thanksgiving holiday, market closed Friday: S&P flash services and manufacturing PMI, market closed early at 1:00 p.m. ET Even with the light data week there are still some important earnings on the calendar. Here are those highlights: Monday PM: Zoom (ZM) Tuesday AM: Lowe’s (LOW), Best Buy (BBY), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Kohl’s (KSS) Tuesday PM: Nvidia (NVDA), Nordstrom (JWN) Wednesday AM: Deere & Company (DE) Yields Start New Week Higher Treasury yields are rising this morning as investors assess the outlook of the U.S. economy. The 10-year yield is up three basis points at 4.48%. Market consensus is that the Fed is done hiking rates with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing a chance 99.8% of no rate hike in December. But now the market is trying to determine when the bank will begin rate cuts. Focus will turn to the Fed’s meeting minutes set to be released on Tuesday for any clues about the discussion surrounding future rate cuts.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Third Week Of Gains
Register now for the next free trading Q&A on LinkedIn with crypto expert and trader John Divine! DJIA Futures: +125 (+0.4%) SPX Futures: +11 (+0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: -8 (-0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are mixed with the market on track for its third straight weekly gain. Let’s get right to it! Yields Flat Ahead Of Fed Speakers Treasury yields have turned flat this morning as investors bet the Federal Reserve is done with its rate-hike cycle. The 10-year yield is flat at 4.45%. This week’s cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI data gave more credence to the market’s expectations that the Fed is done hiking. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 99.7% of traders anticipating no rate hike at the December 13 meeting. But central bank officials are remaining cautious on the victory lap. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told CNBC on Thursday, “We’re going to have to see much more evidence that inflation is on that timely path back to 2%. But we do have really good evidence that it has made progress and now it’s just, is it continuing?” She would not commit to the Fed being done with hikes, saying, “I haven’t assessed that yet. Where I think we are right now is we’re basically in a very good spot for policy.” Several more Fed officials are scheduled to speak today including the Boston Fed President, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, Chicago Fed President, and San Francisco Fed President. Housing Starts Rise More Than Expected New home construction increased more than expected in October. The Census Bureau reported housing starts rose 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.37 million units vs 1.35 million expected. It was the second straight monthly increase but starts were still down 4.2% from October 2022. Single-family starts rose 0.2% monthly and 13.1% year over year while multi-family starts rose 4.9% monthly and dropped 31.8% annually. The increased building activity is expected to continue as new permits issued also topped estimates. Building permits rose 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.49 million vs 1.45 million expected. Single-family permits were up 0.5% while multi-family permits jumped 2%. Gap Shares Soar On Q3 Beat Gap (GPS) shares are surging 18.3% ahead of the open after beating Q3 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $0.59 vs $0.19 expected Revenue: $3.77 billion vs $3.60 billion expected Revenue fell 7% year over year but same-store sales declined just 2% vs the 8.7% drop analysts were anticipating. Gap’s gross margin also improved to 41.3% vs 38.9% expected as the retailer had lower commodity costs, fewer promotions, and continued several cost-cutting efforts. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance and said it expects Q4 sales to be flat to slightly negative year over year. In Case You Missed It Homebuilder sentiment dropped unexpectedly this month. The National Association of Homebuilders sentiment index fell 6 points to 34 vs 40 expected. It was the lowest reading in a year with anything below 50 considered negative. Sentiment about current sales conditions fell six points to 40, 6-month sales expectations dropped five points to 39, and buyer traffic fell five points to 21.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Rally Takes A Breather
DJIA Futures: -46 (-0.1%) SPX Futures: -2 (-0.03%) NASDAQ Futures: -24 (-0.2%) Good morning friends! Futures are lower as the November rally takes a breather and traders digest more retail earnings. Let’s get right to it! Walmart Slides On Cautious Outlook Walmart (WMT) shares are down 6.1% ahead of the open after beating Q3 expectations but issuing cautious guidance. Here’s how the big box retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $1.53 vs $1.52 expected Revenue: $160.80 billion vs $159.72 billion expected Customer transactions rose 3.4% year over year while the average ticket increased 1.5%. Online sales in the U.S. jumped 24% from a year ago and 15% globally. Walmart forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $6.40 to $6.48, lower than $6.48 expected by analysts. Macy’s Pops On Earnings Beat Macy’s (M) shares are up 8.1% in premarket trade after beating Q3 expectations. Here’s how the department store chain’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $0.21 vs $0 expected Revenue: $4.86 billion vs $4.82 billion expected On an owned-plus-licensed basis, same-store sales declined 6.3% year over year vs the 7.75% decline expected. Merchandise inventories fell 6% while lower permanent markdowns on merchandise boosted Macy’s gross margin to 40.3% from 38.7% a year ago. Macy’s adjusted its full-year guidance after the beat, raising the low end of its expected sales range to $22.9 billion from $22.8 billion previously. The retailer expects same-store sales to decline up to 7% vs its previous outlook for an up to 7.5% drop. Macy’s forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $2.88 to $3.13 vs $2.70 to $3.20 previously. Weekly Jobless Claims Rise To 3-Month High Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week. The Labor Department reported 231,000 Americans filed initial unemployment claims. That was up by 13,000 from the previous week and higher than 222,000. It was the highest total of new claims in three months. Continuing claims rose for the eight week in a row to 1.83 million, the highest in seven months. The continued increase in those claims indicates it is taking unemployed workers longer to find new jobs.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: More Good Inflation News
Register now for today’s free trading Q&A on LinkedIn with Chartered Market Technician Christian Tharp! DJIA Futures: +78 (+0.2%) SPX Futures: +16 (+0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: +90 (+0.6%) Good morning friends! Futures are rising after the release of more positive inflation data. Let’s get right to it! PPI Drops Unexpectedly Wholesale inflation posted the largest decline since April 2020 last month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index fell 0.5% monthly and rose 1.3% year over year in October. That was better than expectations for a 0.1% monthly and 1.9% annual increase. The core PPI was unchanged monthly and up 2.4% annually vs expectations for a 0.3% monthly and 2.7% annual gain. Retail Sales Pull Back Retail sales fell in October for the first time in seven months. The Commerce Department reported retail sales declined 0.1% last month to $705 billion vs expectations for a 0.2% drop. It was the first negative reading since March. Gas stations saw the largest decline in sales, dropping 11.8% as prices fell. Sales at furniture stores fell 5.2%, building material store sales declined 2.8%, and sales at electronics and appliance retailers were down 1.7%. Spending at restaurants and bars jumped 11.5%, health and personal care store sales rose 8.2%, online sales rose 8.1%, sales at car dealerships jumped 3.5%, and grocery store sales rose 2.9%. Target Jumps On Earnings Beat Target (TGT) shares are up 13.1% ahead of the open after beating Q3 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $2.10 vs $1.48 expected Revenue: $25.4 billion vs $25.24 billion expected Comparable sales dropped nearly 5% year over year with digital sales down 6%. But profit jumped 36% from a year ago as inventory levels improved, with inventory down 14%. The CFO said, “A store can run more efficiently when their back rooms are free of inventory. A distribution center runs more efficiently, with fewer touches, when it’s not as full, too.” Target forecast Q4 adjusted EPS between $1.90 and $2.60 and said it expects a mid-single-digit decline in comparable sales. Mortgage Demand Climbs To 5-Week High Mortgage demand rose for the second straight week as rates remained lower. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume rose 2.8% last week. Purchase applications rose 3% weekly and were 12% lower year over year. Refinance applications rose 2% weekly and 7% annually. The average 30-year fixed contract rate was unchanged at 7.61%. Rates have since moved lower again this week after the cooler-than-expected CPI report on Tuesday.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: CPI Cools, Futures Surge
Register now for tomorrow’s free trading Q&A on LinkedIn with Chartered Market Technician Christian Tharp! DJIA Futures: +309 (+0.9%) SPX Futures: +52 (+1.2%) NASDAQ Futures: +241 (+1.6%) Good morning friends! Futures are surging and yields are tumbling after the release of cooler-than-expected inflation data. Let’s get right to it! CPI Falls Flat U.S. inflation pressures were flat in October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index was unchanged monthly and up 3.2% year over year. That was better than expectations for a 0.1% monthly and 3.3 annual gain. Gas prices saw the largest drop last month, down 5% from September. Used car prices fell 0.8% monthly, grocery prices rose 0.3%, and shelter prices rose 0.3%. Excluding volatile gas and food prices, the core CPI rose 0.2% monthly and 4% annually vs 0.3% monthly and 4.1% annually expected. Home Depot Rises On Earnings Beat Home Depot (HD) shares are up 1.5% ahead of the open after beating Q3 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the home improvement retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $3.81 vs $3.76 expected Revenue: $37.71 billion vs $37.6 billion expected Comparable sales fell 3.1% year over year, better than the 3.6% drop expected by analysts. There were 399.8 million customer transactions during the quarter, down from 409.8 million a year ago. Home Depot narrowed its full-year outlook. The retailer now expects full-year sales to fall by 3% to 4% year over year vs 2% to 5% previously, EPS is expected to slide by 9% to 11% vs 7% to 13% previously. Fisker Plunges After Q3 Miss Fisker (FSR) shares are tumbling 16.3% in premarket trade after reporting a wider than expected loss in the third quarter. Here’s how the electric vehicle startup’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Loss per share $0.27 vs $0.19 expected Revenue: $71.8 million vs $109 million expected Fisker said it had $625 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand at the end of Q3, up from $521.8 million in Q2. The company said its manufacturing partner built 4,725 Ocean electric SUVs during the quarter and delivered 1,097 to customers. That was up from the 1,022 produced in Q2. Fisker says deliveries have accelerated since then with more than 1,200 Oceans delivered in October. The CEO said, “We are rapidly scaling our delivery infrastructure to support even higher volumes of deliveries of our class-leading product to our loyal customers. We are gaining momentum and delivered more units in the month of October than in all of the third quarter.”
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Moody’s Cuts U.S. Outlook
Register now for this week’s free trading Q&A on LinkedIn with Chartered Market Technician Christian Tharp! DJIA Futures: -83 (-0.2%) SPX Futures: -14 (-0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: -63 (-0.4%) Good morning friends! Futures are falling after Moody’s cut its outlook for the U.S. late on Friday. Let’s get right to it! Moody’s Cuts U.S. Outlook Moody’s Investors Service lowered its ratings outlook for the U.S. from to negative from stable after the market closed on Friday. The agency said, “In the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues. Moody’s expects that the US’ fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability.” The group also said, “Continued political polarization within US Congress raises the risk that successive governments will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability.” Congress is facing another government shutdown deadline on November 17. The new House Speaker unveiled his proposed budget plan on Saturday, which the White House called ‘unserious’. But Moody’s still kept the U.S.’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured loan ratings at AAA. The agency said it expects the country to “retain its exceptional economic strength” and “Further positive growth surprises over the medium term could at least slow the deterioration in debt affordability.” Tyson Slips On Revenue Miss, Weak Outlook Tyson Foods (TSN) shares are down 2.5% ahead of the open after missing fiscal Q4 sales expectations. Here’s how the meat processor’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $0.37 vs $0.29 expected Revenue: $13.3 billion vs $13.7 billion expected Sales volume fell 0.6% year over year with the average price down 1.4%. Beef volume dropped 6.7% and the average price rose 10.2%, chicken volume jumped 1.7% and the average price tumbled 9.2%. Tyson said it expects fiscal 2024 sales to be flat with the $52.88 billion in 2023 sales vs analysts’ estimates for $54.37 billion. Monday.com Surges On Earnings Beat Monday.com (MNDY) shares are surging 12.1% in premarket trade after crushing Q3 expectations and hiking its full-year guidance. Here’s how the project management company’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $0.64 vs $0.21 expected Revenue: $189.2 million vs $182.5 million expected Monday.com said it now expects full-year revenue between $723 million and $725 million and adjusted operating income between $47 million and $49 million. That was up from the previous revenue forecast of $713 million to $717 million and adjusted operating income of $24 million to $28 million. Boeing Jumps On Emirates Purchase Boeing (BA) shares are up 3.5% ahead of the open after Emirates Airlines announced a $52 billion order from the planemaker. Emirates will purchase 95 more Boeing aircraft, including 55 Boeing 777-9s and 35 777-8s. The airline also increased its 787 Dreamliner order to 35 from 30. It was the first major deal made at the 2023 Dubai Airshow. Emirates Airlines operates the largest number of Boeing 777 aircraft of any airline in the world.
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