Redler All-Access: November 26, 2018
Dear RAA Members,
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Holiday Surprise – November 26, 2018
Morning Call: November 26, 2018
Companion Charts: November 26, 2018
Daily Recap: November 23, 2018
Europe is broadly higher as Italy makes a few concessions and the EU gives the Brexit an okay. The DAX is +1.1% with the CAC +1.2% and FTSE +1.0%.
Asia has green arrows. The Hang Seng is up 1.7%, reclaiming the 50 day. SPX futures are up 30 on optimism that Powell will have a more dovish tone Wednesday, and that the G-20 will bring some type of trade ceasefire. It was hard to see this type of big up open coming since the market was down last even though it usually has an upside bias around Thanksgiving.
But, we are getting used to harder setups, so we’ll deal with it. last week the market was down every day in what usually has an upside bias. We are getting used to harder setups, so we’ll deal with it. Today, we’ll see how much of today’s gap holds, and then judge the action moving forward. Do we get a gap and go and close on the highs today? Or do the highs happen in the first 30-60 minutes. We’ll be ready for whatever happens.
Last week, 2630 held, which is above the 2603 October low. Will today be potent and ignite a double bottom type? Or will things look lethargic and get sold? Resistance is the 2670 area, and then 2705ish.
SPY put in a low Friday at $263.07. We’ll see how much of today’s opening gap holds. Pivot resistance is in the $267 area, then $269.40.
Tech was a headwind for the past few weeks but showed a few glimmers last week. The QQQ’s put in a low at $159.09 Friday. See if it holds $160.84 and builds. And let’s see if AAPL gets rejected at the $175.50-$176 resistance area, or if it reclaims that with authority.
Small caps got very close to major support and broke the October lows. IWM’s low from Friday was $146.81. Resistance is in the $150.50-$151.
Banks aren’t special either.
GS made new October lows way before the others with yields coming in a bit. It made a low of $188.94 Friday. See if it holds up or goes red. Pivot resistance is $191.87.
JPM is usually the strongest name but no one is in a rush to buy strength. It was sold last week. Friday’s low was in the $106 area. Now see how it handles $107.40 pivot resistance. Oil got hit hard from $75 to $55 and then broke lower again. It’s up a little this morning but not by much.
USO broke $11.62 and then hit a low Friday at $10.69. It’s very oversold but very broken.
XLE broke the October lows and hit $63.44 Friday. Pivot resistance is $64.57, then $65.32.
AAPL was the weakest last week. It broke below $185.93 and hit a low of $172.10 Friday. Now see if it reclaims or gets rejected at the $175.50-$176 area. If it reclaims it with force, it can see the $180-$181.47 gap area this week. A down open would have been easier.
AMZN held up a little better than some other F.A.N.G.-type names. However, it closed on the lows Friday. Now see if it gets rejected around the $1546-$1553 resistance area. Or does it get reclaimed for more upside towards $1600?
NFLX isn’t special. Barrons says it’s not worth buying yet. But it can bounce towards $271-$275 before it sees resistance.
NVDA gave us a nice tradable setup last Tuesday as it went green first. It has pivot resistance at $155, then the real zone is $161-$163.
FB has been hit the hardest the off highs. It gave us a trade last Tuesday. Barron’s thinks it has a good-risk reward down here. It has pivot resistance at $134.50. Then $137 is bigger resistance.
TWTR tried to be somewhat constructive post-earnings, but tech was too weak. It needs time and there’s no real pattern. The $32 area needs to be reclaimed with some force as a step in the right direction.
GOOGL: Barron’s said the risk-reward down here is good. But it needs a lot of work to get better. Pivot resistance is $1143. See if it stays above that. If so, bigger resistance is near $1165.
SQ was one of the first names to put its low last Tuesday. It held above it Friday. It will test the 200 day before a few other names. See if it reclaims it or gets rejected there near $66.
TSLA tried to act special until it did a Red Dog Reversal around the $357 pivot on 11/19. Then it hit a low of $325.55 Friday. It’s just a trade like everything else now. Pivot resistance is 337.50.
BABA has been showing a little relative strength and was actually green Friday. Next resistance is the $157 area.
NIO is a small speculative name I listed down around $6.95. It hit a high of $8.21 and pulled in a bit. I’m in some since I think it can be a big 2019 story. It needs big volume to get above $8.35 in the weeks ahead. I want it to hold $7.15. Otherwise, I’ll think about changing plans.
Cannabis names lost momentum and are trying to rebuild. Some think a farm bill is coming, so look out for it.
CGC held the $32 area and there’s some optimism that the farm bill is coming. It’s up a little this morning. See how it handles the $35 area. Above that is $37.
TLRY is high valuation and hard to trust. But it cleared $111.70 to hit a high of $117.70. Next resistance is $126.
PYX got battered and bruised but has a lower-level pivot area that’s worth watching. Some traders are playing it for a trade into January. If the group lifts, it can see $18-$20.
NBEV is a little spec name that gave a lot of action earlier in the year. In a better market, maybe it improves. Pivot resistance to clear is $4.25.
CRBP: some trader are looking at this as a 2019 story. It needs a better market.
Today’s Trading Focus
I’ll take it slow because this open is tricky. There were really no signals to come in long today. Last week was down week when historically, it had an upside bias. So I’m flat. I listed many pivot resistance. We need to get above them to see bigger resistance. It could be hard to fade the open, but buying strength isn’t easy either.
I will see how AAPL gets treated at the $175.50-$176 area. If it goes red, it could dampen sentiment.
I want to see if which names can get above Friday’s highs, and if they get rejected.
I’ll see how NVDA $149.60, FB $134.50, and AMZN $1550ish gets treated.
After Hours: BKE, CAAP, ENTA, STNE