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Crude’s Big Move… and 4 Other Thoughts on Today’s Action
Attention! On Thursday afternoon, T3 Live’s Dave Green is hosting a FREE trading webinar. Click here to learn how Dave crushes the market! 1) Crude Move Crude oil got a nice lift on this morning’s EIA inventory numbers. We saw a substantial builds in overall and Cushing, OK inventories, but massive draws in gasoline and distillate inventories. However, we’ve gotten other recent data (Saudi pumping levels, API data) that is bearish, and it’s now down a little. If crude oil can’t hold, it will embolden the bears. 2) Bio/Pharma Weakness Biotech and pharma are getting hit today on negative news from Eli Lilly (LLY) and Mylan (MYL), which is not good because health care is a key bull driver However, they’ve rocketed off post-Brexit lows so it’s fair to accept some consolidation after big, dramatic moves. A move off the lows would be encouraging, though I wouldn’t count on it. 3) Sentiment The ISE Sentiment Index is reading 100 as of 10:30 a.m. ET, which is perfectly neutral. (100 calls bought for every 100 puts) However, there is opposing action between individual names and the index/ETF sides. On the index side, traders look pretty bearish. (just 35 calls for every 100 puts) In individual names, the reading is 155 (155 calls for every 100 puts). Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey was released today, showing that 54.3% of newsletter writers are bullish. This is very close to II’s 55% danger zone. 4) Large Cap Tech Sagging Big tech names like Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) are looking “saggy” today, for lack of a better term. Like the health care complex, they could use a little consolidation time after posting big gains. That said, traders may get discouraged of tech loses its leadership status, since it’s played a big role in keeping equities at all-time highs. 5) Still No Vol… Volatility is still nowhere to be found. So far today, the S&P has trade in a less than 5-point range, which is threatening to put me to sleep all over again. I still think we’ll get a volatility spike soon, but there’s no sign of it yet today. Look at oil. We’ve gotten a lot of news is the past 18 hours, and it’s still barely doing anything. Click here to check out Dave Green’s webinar this Thursday!
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Trying To Keep Constructive
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the move by the BOE to cut rates and increase the stimulus and how the Equity Markets are responding. He also notes that the jobs report tomorrow will be very important to the future direction of the market. Scott also looks at names like JP Morgan (JPM), Apple (AAPL), and others.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: New Month
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler welcomes us to a new month and talks about the sideways action we have seen in the SPX and what levels to look at for movement. He also looks at recent earnings names like AMZN and GOOGL along with a game plan for each. Scott also looks at the action in FB and AAPL.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take T3: Pop & Drop at the F.B. Corral!
By Michael Comeau 1) Lucky 13 for Facebook Yesterday after the close, social media giant Facebook (FB) delivered a massive earnings beat, sending shares as high as $133.91 in extended trading, or up 8.6%. The company is seeing significant growth in mobile, higher revenue from Instagram, and improving user engagement metrics, Facebook’s huge numbers weren’t exactly a surprise, since the company had beaten Wall Street’s earnings estimates for 12 straight quarters, making yesterday lucky number 13. This set the stage for a sell-the-news reaction, and Facebook finished well off the highs at $125.00 up 1.4% on the day. However, Facebook shares are still doing incredibly well in 2016 with a 19.4% year-to-date gain. 2) Jeff Cooper on Facebook’s Exhaustion Signal This afternoon, my buddy Jeff Cooper issued an interesting take on Facebook’s weakness: FB is poised to leave a large-range Gilligan sell signal if it closes at/near session lows. This is an exhaustion signal marked by a gap up to a new 60 day high with a close at/near session lows. AAPL is a different pattern as its earning’s gap was not a gap to new 60 day highs or 52 week highs or all time highs as is the case with FB. My takeaway is that institutions are scale-up sellers on pops. Tomorrow we get the reaction to two other FANG stocks (AMZN and GOOGL). If they react similarly to FB or don’t blow out expectations, there may be nothing left on the table to prevent a slide. 3) Another Day, Another Grind Given that crude oil is a major drive of equity market sentiment, I’ve been a bit surprised at how well equities have held up in the face of oil’s near-20% decline off the highs. And again today, we saw oil decline sharply… and stocks basically rolled their eyes. The S&P 500 went nowhere for the second day in a row, finishing at 2170.06, up 0.2%. In fact, the S&P hasn’t made a 1% move since July 8. Facebook and Apple’s (AAPL) small gains today helped the Nasdaq outperform. Biotechnology led the decliners’ column today, with the S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) falling -0.5%. Energy stocks were down on oil’s decline, with oil service names showing notable dips. P.S. My partner in crime Kurt Capra is hosting a FREE trading webinar after the close on Tuesday, August 2, 2016. Click here to sign up
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Apple Hulk-Smashes the Bears
Want to start trading like a pro? Then click here. Trust me. By Michael Comeau 1) Apple Wins, Bears Cry As I wrote yesterday, expectations appeared to be very low heading into Apple’s (AAPL) Tuessday night earnings report. The numbers confirmed that suspicion as Apple reported better-than-expected revenues, earnings, and iPhone unit sales. The company also delivered very strong revenue guidance, which indicates that iPhone sales are holding up much better than the bears have expected. Apple shares ripped 6.6% to $103.03 today, helping to push the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 indices to within striking distance of all-time highs. And let’s give Warren Buffett some credit — he disclosed his stake in Apple in mid-May when Apple hit its 2016 low. 2) The Bull Returns… Sort of Equity markets were a little odd today. Apple set off a rally in the Nasdaq and the widely-watched biotechnology was very strong, but the S&P 500 barely budged. The index fell -0.1% to 2066.58 — not exactly a barnburner! Oil prices and energy stocks slumped on higher-than-expected oil inventories, and we also saw weakness in utilities, real estate, consumer staples, and transports. Overall, the action felt like run-of-the-mill digestion, though with a clearly bullish tinge. If biotech makes another run like this tomorrow, we could see the S&P hitting new highs and the Nasdaq finally making its own new record. 3) Fed Schmed As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged today and issued a somewhat hawkish statement. The Fed said that employment data points to an increase in labor utilization, and that near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished. Initially, gold fell and the dollar spiked, which are consistent with a more hawkish Fed. However, almost immediately, those moves reversed themselves and gold ended up 1.6% higher at $1,349/oz at the equity market close. And the dollar ended up at daily lows. Presumably, traders still believe the Fed will move very slowly as Fed Funds futures indicate that the next rate hike won’t happen until well into 2017.
Continue Reading -->3 Next Steps to Ultimate Victory for Apple
I was worried about Apple’s (AAPL) quarter the way everyone else was. But with very sour sentiment, I made a plan to buy if it could get and stay above $100-$101. I did that live on the VTF after-hours. Let’s take a look at the chart: Getting in was step 1. Now we’ll see if it can hold that area moving forward, and we’ll see what kind of levels the intraday action gives us. Step #2 is to reclaim the 200-day moving average around $103.75, and then hold above that for a few sessions. Step #3 would be to break the downtrend that has plagued the stock for well over a year. If that happens, Apple can turn into a tailwind for the next few months. I’ll continue updating you with key levels so we can effectively navigate the action together. If you’d like to trade with me live, take a FREE trial to the VTF.
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: Apple Smashes Bears, Record Nasdaq Highs in Sight
Global markets are in a happy mood courtesy of Apple’s (AAPL) better-than-expected earnings report, and Japan’s signaling of more stimulus. Apple is up ~$6.50 in the early going after beating analysts’ earnings, revenue, and iPhone unit estimates, and offering strong forward guidance. Meanwhile, just as traders thought Bank of Japan stimulus was priced in (based on yesterday’s big rally in the yen), PM Shinzo Abe showed commitment to a $265 billion stimulus package. That’s pushing the yen back down, which is great for risk appetites. SPX futures are slightly green, while NDX futures are up 0.7%. If Apple generates some follow-through among other large-cap techs, we could see a new Nasdaq Composite all-time high above 5231.94. And the NDX may finally exceed its March 2000 high of 4816.35. Facebook (FB) reports after the close, and if it repeats another blowout, maybe we see those records fall by the weekend. In related news, Twitter (TWTR) dropped another guidance stink bomb last night and is getting smashed up. Meanwhile, Fiat Chrysler raised its forecast, and Comcast (CMCSA) and GlaskoSmithKline beat. Crude oil is down after the API showed a very small decline in crude oil inventories after the close yesterday. EIA data hits at 10:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect a 2 million barrel decline. We also have durable goods, pending home sales, and of course, the FOMC rate decision. Fed Funds futures show that traders are pricing in a mere 10% chance of a rate hike today. The forward outlook will be key. I would pay close attention to see if the Fed eases up on its concerns over the Brexit, given that global economic data has been generally strong as of late. Lately, I’ve been emphasizing that perception of the Fed, which impacts all financial markets, is incredibly volatile. Ths is especially true this year. 2 months ago, traders were pricing in a 74% chance of a December rate hike. That number dropped to 10% chance after the Brexit. Now those odds are back up to nearly 50%. And we act like Tesla (TSLA) is volatile… Now one thing I found really interesting yesterday was the action below the surface in biotech. IBB was red because of Gilead’s (GILD) weak earnings report and big decline. Yet XBI, which is much more diversified (GILD is 8% of IBB), was actually well in the green. So below the surface, biotech was strong (as was the Russell 2000) on an overall snoozer of the day. So pay close attention to biotech — if it turns out to be a coiled spring, the bulls might party like it’s 1999. And 1999 was a good year!
Continue Reading -->Apple Eats Bears, Bears Eat Twitter
1) Holding Ahead of Apple US markets entered a holding pattern ahead of Apple’s (AAPL) earnings report, which hit after the close today. (more on this below) The S&P 500 traded in an extremely tight range today before finishing at 2169.19, up a tiny 0.03% on the day. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices showed solid outperformance today despite an intraday drop in oil and some biotech names. This was a bit of a surprise given that overseas markets indicated a risk-off posture in the early going, perhaps best exemplified by the sharp rise in the Japanese yen, which rallies when traders grow more cautious. Crude oil stayed weak, with WTI crude breaking the $43 handle, though energy stocks actually finished up. 2) Bio-Confusion Large cap biotechnology stocks took a tumble today after industry giant Gilead (GILD) reported disappointing second-quarter earnings results and poor guidance. Gilead, which accounts for 8% of the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB), fell -8.5% today, while IBB dipped -0.7% That wasn’t exactly a pretty picture, but outside of Gilead, biotechnology was actually pretty decent. The XBI ETF, which is much more diversified than IBB, was actually well in the green today. This indicates that many traders believe Gilead is facing company-specific problems that won’t impact the sector. 3) Post-Close Earnings Twitter (TWTR) beat analysts’ earnings estimates for the 6th quarter in a row, but it reported disappointing revenues and delivered atrocious third-quarter guidance. Many traders were surprised at Twitter’s dissappointment given the headline-heavy US election cycle and global geopolitical troubles, which should be driving significant news consumption and chatter via Twitter. Twitter shares were down sharply in extended trading. That’s not a surprise given that the stock just rose over 20% on takeover speculation. Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) was up over 5% after-hours as the company beat Wall Street’s expectations for sales, earnings, and iPhone unit sales. Apple also offered strong forward guidance. This should mean good things for the Apple calendar spread trade I suggested today. And it may even be good for the Intel (INTC) calendar spread trade from last week if tech stocks get a lift.
Continue Reading -->Apple Earnings Preview: Is the Bad News Bad Enough?
Tech superheavyweight Apple (AAPL) reports earnings after the close today, and as always it’s the talk of the town for tech investors. Here is a quick summary of Wall Street’s consensus expectations: (data from Bloomberg and Factset) Sales: $42.0559B (Apple’s guidance was $42 billion) Earnings $1.386 per share Gross margin: 37.945% (guidance was 37.750%) iPhone units: ~40 million And for next quarter, analysts expect: Sales: $45.537B Earnings $1.593 per share Gross margin: 38.361% Now, let’s take a broader look at overall expectations for Apple. Right now, 82.7% of analysts rate it a buy. Let’s compare that to other major large-cap tech names: Facebook (FB): 88.0% rate it a buy Google (GOOGL): 90% Salesforce.com (CRM): 91.3% IBM (IBM): 25.9% Oracle (ORCL): 56.1% The average target price on Apple is now $121.91, down from $150+ last November. And for the full year, analysts now expect revenues of $215 billion, down from nearly $250 billion last fall. You can see the trend in this chart: (red is 2016 revenue expectations, white is stock price) So it’s safe to say that expectations have come down quite a bit. And perhaps most tellingly, yesterday, BGC analyst Collin Gillis downgraded the stock to a sell, saying “Our opinion [is] that Apple has peaked under the leadership of CEO Tim Cook.” That’s not as dramatic as the “Fire Tim Cook Era” which marked the last major Apple bottom: But it’s certainly in the same ballpark in terms of line of thinking. Remember, Apple is very cyclical at this point, and you want to buy when the news stinks. Therefore, I think the bulls have the edge with Apple here. Even if Apple misses, the downside may be limited because a decent amount of negativity is being priced in with the stock trading at 11 times earnings with a 2.2% dividend yield. (vs. a 10-year Treasury with a 1.56% yield) I’ll be back after the open with some possible options trades. (Click here for my trade idea)
Continue Reading -->The Safety Dance Starts, but You Can’t Argue With Price
The yen is rising this morning on what looks like an advance “sell the news” reaction in advance of the Bank of Japan Meeting on July 28-29. Remember, the yen has been ripping all year: Most economists expect the bank to increase its ETF purchase prices, cut rates, and increase its JGB purchases, which could mean it’s all but priced in. The Nikkei is off -1.4% and most European markets are red. SPX futures are flat, and I’m surprised they’re not down more. Crude oil slumped under $43 and the key biotech sector is getting roughed up in the early going. Gilead (GILD), which is 8.1% off the IBB ETF, is taking a big hit on its disappointing earnings reports, and is off 4.3% in the early going. IBB is indicated down -0.9%. That’s not the end of the world, but we can all agree that things are just plain better when biotech keeps its act together. There have been 4 horsemen leading equities since the 2/11 low — biotech (IBB), oil, high-yield (HYG), and the Russell 2000. Biotech and oil are obviously feeling the heat. High-yield is closely linked to oil (since oil prices drive default rates on energy bonds). Here is a chart of the HYG ETF vs. crude oil over the past year: So we have 3 of the 4 in some kind of trouble. Therefore, keep your eyes on the Russell. If that starts giving up, maybe the bears will score a victory. Post-Brexit, they haven’t been been able to do much. I still see an April-May-style sideways grind for the time being. Markets are a little stretched and sentiment is positive, but you can’t argue with price. Frankly, with the yen up so much and oil now 15%+ from the high , I expected SPX futures to be down at a least a half-percent. But they’re flat. In other earnings news, industrial giant United Technologies (UTX) is up after beating. The economic calendar picks up a little bit today, with S&P Case-Shiller, Markit PMI, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, and New Home Sales numbers coming. However, the big news comes after the close with Apple’s (AAPL) earnings report. Expectations appear to be pretty low, but remember, it takes a lot of money to move Apple, so they really need to deliver. Twitter’s (TWTR) also reporting, and given how much that stock has run since Microsoft (MSFT) bought LinkedIn (LNKD), it will be in close focus. Still not fan of that one. Good luck friends!
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