Tag Archives for " clinton "
The Morning Hammer: The Trump Bump Continues!
The State of the Markets, Straight from Scott Redler Download Scott’s FREE presentation now by clicking this link: https://t3campaigns.clickfunnels.com/optin10692005 Yesterday, markets staged a big rally following an overnight session that was so bad that SPX futures went limit down. Traders were disappointed with Donald Trump’s historic victory over Hillary Clinton, The Trump Bump continues this morning, with SPX and NDX futures well into positive territory, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.1%. One big story in the news today is that following the Brexit and Donald Trump’s US Presidential election victory, we could see even more major political upheavals. Now many folks think that Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Front party, could become President of that nation next year. And Italy has a major reform referendum vote coming up on December 4 aimed at limiting the powers of regional governments in order to streamline legislation. But that could get rejected since Italian PM Renzi supported Hillary Clinton, which does not fit with the growing wave of global populism. All across the globel, the establishment is becoming less established. Maybe THAT is the big trading/investing theme we need to focus on. We could even look at Germany. PM Merkel has been considering running for a 4th term. Polls have indicated that about half of Germans oppose that. If she does run, I suspect she would get destroyed. The tide is just too strong. Anyway… The VIX is still falling and is under 14 this morning. So all those put buyers that were scrambling to buy election protection are getting decimated once again. The ISE Sentiment Index was just 68 yesterday even with the rally, pushing the 10 day moving average down to 67.4. That implies very, very negative sentiment. The 10 day moving average of the CBOE equity put call is 0.735, which is slightly above the YTD average. So we have a lot of hedges that probably need to be unwound, and that could propel the S&P 500 to record highs. Good luck out there!
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: Happy Election Day?
How to Thrive in the Future of Trading Want to go Quant without a PhD? Check out our latest live event here: https://t3campaigns.clickfunnels.com/optin10626572 I’d say Happy Election Day but there’s doesn’t seem to be much happiness out there today. So I added a question mark. If there’s one sign of the times… it’s the lack of signs. I’ve lived in Brooklyn, NY my whole life, and every election, I’ve seen tons of signs for Presidential candidates in front of people’s homes. This time around… nada. Anecdotes aren’t evidence, but I think this says something about the state of affairs. It seems like the market wants Hillary Clinton to win to avoid the Trump wild card. I guess folks will decide the ramifications of a Clinton Presidency after the fact. However, what’s most important is resolution. The market wants a clean Clinton victory without Trump disputing the results and extending the spectacle. That said, I wouldn’t count Donald out until the final vote is tallied. Reuters is saying it sees a 90% chance of Clinton winning. But Trump was never supposed to even be in this race. Yet here he is at the homestretch. The Brexit was not supposed to happen. Yet it did. Futures are down slightly this morning, which feels like run-of-the-mill profit-taking after yesterday’s big surge. One interesting story I caught yesterday was Reuters’ report of Wall Street banks prepping for Brexit-like turmoil tomorrow. That may reduce the chances of a massively negative reaction to a Trump win or a sell-the-news reaction to a Clinton victory. In recent years, investors have generally overhedged, in the process throwing away untold billions of dollars on put options. Look at the chart below of the ISE Sentiment Index since inception in 2002.: As you can see, it’s slowly drifted lower, which means that put option demand has grown relative to call option demand. We’ll soon see if the recent spate of put buying was just another big waste of investor cash. Good luck out there.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Connecting The Election Correction Technically
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler discusses the Fed day today and the likelihood that it is a non-event as the U.S. Presidential Election has taken center stage. He reviews the action in the SPX given the sell-off yesterday and updates the new levels of support and resistance. Scott also looks at the bounce that took place in the Biotech (IBB) and a couple high beta tech names.
Continue Reading -->Clinton Victory Means a Peso Victory
1) Mexican Peso Jumps The big post-election meme on Wall Street today is the jump in the Mexican peso. It’s up 1.2% against the US dollar today on Hillary Clinton’s strong showing in last night’s debate. Donald Trump is not viewed as peso-friendly, to say the least. But keep in mind that over the past few months, broader equity markets haven’t shown a tendency to favor one candidate over the other. That may change as we get closer to the finish line, especially around the second debate on Sunday, October 9. 2) Biotech Is Fine Biotech (IBB) is doing well this morning. In recent history, biotech has done better when Trump was favored, so this is an interesting development — especially since Gilead (GILD) was downgraded. 3) Gold Sinks Gold is taking a big hit this morning, and some of that is attributed to Clinton’s win. Trump’s wild-card nature is seen as more favorable for gold, even though gold’s status as a safety asset is in question. Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong also hit a 7-month low. However, keep in mind that the junior miners (GDXJ) are actually slightly outperforming the metal. GDXJ is essentially a high-octane way to play the metal, so I’m surprised it’s not doing worse. Stay on the lookout for a possible bounce higher in gold. 4) Crude Games It seems like oil bulls keep getting carried away on chatter about production freezes/cuts, and they always end up getting burned. I’m starting to think we should ignore all oil headlines until we get official word on the outcome of the meeting in Algiers. For now, the chances of a production freeze or cut look pretty slim. 5) Economic Data Today, we saw in-line S&P home data, a Markit Services PMI beat, a consumer confidence beat, and a miss on the Richond Fed. Overall, the economic data trend is still down. As you can see in this chart of the Citi US Economic Surprise Index, economic data strength relative to expectations is right around Brexit levels. The difference between now and then is that the market had more or less price rate hikes out. Now it’s pretty much 50-50 as to whether the Fed will move in Deceember. If the data trend continues to weaken, we could very well see the dollar dip and gold rip. We have Durable Goods on Wednesday, GDP on Thursday, and Personal Income/Spending plus the PCE Deflator Friday. So we could see some real fireworks!
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Stocks Drop Ahead of Epic Trump vs. Clinton Showdown
A Unique Way to Trade Options… My buddy Doug Robertson is hosting a FREE options trading webinar this Thursday. Doug’s going to be teaching his unique method for creating income with options, so I suggest you check it out. ********* 1) Disney for Twitter? Seriously? Twitter (TWTR) shares got a huge lift on record options volume Friday on rumors that the company could be acquired by Google (GOOGL) or Salesforce.com (CRM). Today, a host of analysts and commentators threw water on the rumors, and the stock was even downgraded by Oppenheimer, driving some profit-taking. But this afternoon, Bloomberg reported that Disney (DIS) is working with an adviser on a potential Twitter bid, sending the stock up all over again. Presumably, Twitter’s real-time news and data feeds could be integrated into Disney media properties like ABC and ESPN. However, a T3 Twitter poll indicates that trader still think Google (GOOGL) is the most likely buyer, assuming it happens at all: 2) Bank Scare Drives Downside German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out state assistance for Deutsche Bank (DB) before next year’s national election, which hit the stock hard. Deutsche has been fined $14 billion by the US Department of Justice for its mortgage-backed securities practices, which could cause liquidity problems for the bank. That sent European equities down this morning, setting the tone for the US. The S&P 500 fell -0.9% to 2146.10, with the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 making similar moves. US bank stocks led the decliners’ column, following their European counterparts. Gold mining stocks fell after precious metals slipped in the afternoon. On the plus side, crude oil and energy stocks pushed higher on continued chatter about a possible OPEC output freeze. 3) Trump vs. Clinton The first Presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will be held tonight. Aside from the general market fallout, traders will especially be interested in how health care and drug stocks perform tomorrow. One major reason biotech (IBB) has rallied in recent weeks was Hillary Clinton’s pneumonia diagnosis. Since she has been an outspoken critic of rising drug prices — specifically targeting Mylan’s (MYL) Epipen — she is seen as an enemy of biotech and big pharma. Her illness boosted Trump in the polls, which in turn gave biotech a reprieve. So if Clinton scores a clear victory, drug and biotech stocks are likely to fall. And obviously, the reverse is likely to be true if Trump wins. Tuesday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 09:00 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI MoM SA (Jul): prior 0.21% 09:00 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index (Jul): prior 189.87 09:00 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (Jul): exp. 0.00%, prior -0.07% 09:00 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA (Jul): exp. 5.10%, prior 5.13% 09:00 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index (Jul): prior 182.42 09:00 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA (Jul): prior 5.07% 09:45 Markit US Services PMI (Sep P): exp. 51.2, prior 51 09:45 Markit US Composite PMI (Sep P): prior 51.5 10:00 Consumer Confidence Index (Sep): exp. 99, prior 101.1 10:00 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (Sep): exp. -2, prior -11 11:15 Fed Vice Chair Fischer Discusses Why Study Economics? Global Economics 04:00 EUR M3 Money Supply 20:20 AUD RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks Earnings Before Open: None of significance After Close: Cintas (CTAS) Nike (NKE)
Continue Reading -->A Trump vs. Clinton Options Strategy
Tonight we’ll see the first US Presidential debate debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. I’m going to leave my personal opinions about both candidates out of this, and keep it focused on the markets. A major reason biotech (IBB) has rallied in recent weeks was Hillary Clinton’s pneumonia diagnosis. Since she has been an outspoken critic of rising drug prices — specifically targeting Mylan’s (MYL) Epipen — she is seen as an enemy of biotech and big pharma. Her illness boosted Trump in the polls, which in turn gave biotech a reprieve. That’s perhaps a bit ironic, because Trump himself has been critical of drug company pricing practices. So heading into the debate, there appears to be a binary outcome — not between the candidates, but whether or now there is a decisive outcome. If it’s a close call, that will just add to the confusion and the impact on stocks is a wash. But if one side scores a big victory, odds are these stocks move, at least in the early going. So I’d look at the following trades depending upon one’s stance about the outcome: Benefits from a big Clinton or Trump victory: -Buy IBB $295 straddle expiring October 15 for $7 (give or take 10 cents) Benefits from a stalemate: -Sell IBB weekly $285/$290/$300/$305 iron condor expiring Friday for $1.88 (give or take 5 cents) I’d keep any positions small, and would look to close out either one tomorrow on the open.
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: Tension Is On the Tape
European equities are down again this morning on bank weakness. German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out state assistance for Deutsche Bank (DB) before next year’s national election, which is hitting the stock hard, and in turn, other European banks. DB faces a $14 billion bill from the Department of Justive related to MBS activities during the bubble. They are appealing, but shareholders are very concerned that the bank will have to raise cash. The Euro Stoxx 600 is down -1.4% with financials down -2.0%. The drama is driving demand for safety assets, and the yen, (BTW, you should read Kurt Capra’s great work on USDJPY) German bunds, and US Treasuries are ticking higher. Crude oil is near $45 after Algerian Energy Minister Noureddine Boutarfa said Sunday that Saudi Arabia offered to cut production to January levels. But keep in mind that oil headlines are running wild ahead of the OPEC meeting this week, which is an “anything goes” event. German business sentiment hit a 2-year+ high. However, UK mortgage approvals dropped sharply in August. The Bank of Japan reported that corporate cash and household deposits hit an all-time high as business and consumers remain reluctant to spend. On the deal front, CBOE (CBOE) is buying BATS Global (BATS) for $3.2 billion. Funny, last week there was a rumor that CBOE itself could be in play — but I guess someone got their wires crossed. Tonight, we’ll have the first Presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. If either candidate gets a decisive victory, we could see a real move in biotech tomorrow. (down if Clinton wins, up if Trump wins) SPX futures are down in the early going, and I guess we’re going to see if bears are ready to make a real stand. Friday was a modestly ugly day, but the bears have been flopping bretty bad since June. It’s hard to tell when that will stop, but tension is starting to build on the tape again.
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: Round 2 for the Bears!
Friday was the first -1% down day in the SPX since June 27 — and it was an ugly one. The SPX and Nasdaq each fell -2.5% while the Russell 2000 dropped -3.1%. And the VIX spiked an incredible 40% to 17.56. Many traders blamed the initial weakness on hawkish comments from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee. That obviously impacted the lousy action in US Treasuries and gold, but didn’t seem to fully explain the broader downturn in the market. Crude was slumping and the ECB disappointed, but to me the real factor was time. Volatility is mean-reverting and after an extended period of failures, the bears were due for a victory. The news is the justification after the drop — not the cause of the drop itself. As my friend Jeff Cooper says, “the news breaks with the cycles.” We’re seeing some follow-through this morning. European and Asia markets are off. WTI crude is down -2.4% to $44.80, breaking its 50 day moving average. The yen is soaring. German bunds and US Treasuries are falling. Gold is getting hit. SPX futures are down -0.7%, which doesn’t exactly spell disaster, but it’s clear that traders are feeling very, very spooked about what’s to come this week. SPX sliced through the key 2147 level Friday, and it’s below the 20/50 day moving averages. The 200 day is below at 2057. The 2090-2120 range looks key short-term. I really wonder what happens at the open: I wonder if traders will dump in the hopes of avoiding a catastrophe. Full disclosure: I have a position in VIX calls and that makes chaos my friend. Traders seem to be worried about Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s pneumonia scare, which could presumably help Donald Trump’s chances. In fact, the Mexican peso, which has been tracking Donald Trump’s perceived odds of winning, is down on this news today! BofAML actually issued a note today saying the market is not paying sufficient attention to Trump, who has been moving up in battleground states. The market is largely assuming a Clinton victory (which partially explains the weakness in biotech). I believe Trump has a better chance of winning than most people assume, and I would not count him out until the votes are tallied.
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