1) Bulls Fight Back The S&P 500 fell -0.4% to 2119.12 in the early going, which had traders worrying that we’d see a repeat of Friday’s horrendous action. We also saw early weakness in overseas equities, crude oil, bonds, and gold. However, traders very quickly bought the dip, and the S&P finished up 1.5% at 2159.04. This was the first 1% up day in the S&P 500 since July 8. And since Friday was the first -1% down day since June 27, perhaps we are seeing a real return to volatility after 2 months of near-zero movement. 2) Biotech Saves the Day The first clue that the bull was ready to fight back was the early rebound in biotech (IBB), which was supported by 3 pieces of favorable news. First, Horizon Pharma (HZNP) announced it is buying Raptor Pharmaceutical (RPTP) for $800 million. Gilead (GILD) CEO John Milligan also said at an investment conference that the company planned on making regular acquisitions. And finally, Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton fell ill at a 9/11 Memorial Service in New York. Since she is viewed as anti-biotech, anything that hurts her chances of becoming President helps the sector. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (IBB) rose 3.0% to $287.11 today. 3) Fed Schmed This afternoon, Lael Brainard, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Market Committee, gave a highly-anticipated speech in Chicago. Brainard’s speech leaned dovish, making a case for leaving rates as-is. Considering that Brainard is considered to be one of more dovish members of the Fed, this was not a major surprise. However, her speech had a big impact on markets: the US dollar fell, while gold and stocks ripped higher. Traders are also now pricing in a mere 22% of a September rate hike, down from 32% a week ago. Throughout August, traders loved hawkish Fed chatter. It looks like that’s flipped around now. Tuesday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 06:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug): exp. 94.8 , prior 94.6 14:00 Monthly Budget Statement (Aug): exp. -$107.0b , prior -$64.4b Global Economics 03:15 CHF PPI m/m 04:30 GBP CPI y/y 05:00 EUR ECB Pres. Draghi Speaks 05:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 18:45 NZD Current Account Earnings Before Open: None of Significance After Close: None of Significance
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1) Oil Blasts Into Orbit Today, we saw the biggest decline in US crude inventories since January 1999. The Energy Information Administration said US crude stocks fell -14.5 million barrels last week. Traders were expecting a 905K increase, so needless to say, the market was taken by surprise. WTI crude rose 4.2% to $47.41, and in turn, energy stocks led the market. Oil service names were especially strong. However, we still see a lot of conflicting headlines regarding possible changes in OPEC policy, so stay on your toes. 2) Biotech Rips on More Deal Hopes Yesterday, biotech caught a bid into the close after Reuters reported that GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) hired advisers after being approached for a takeover. Today, Gilead (GILD) added to the positivity by saying at an investor conference that it “feels an urgency” to do deals, noting an interest in cancer drugs. Traders immediately looked at cancer treatment specialists Tesaro (TSRO) and Clovis Oncology (CLVS) as potential targets, and both stocks rose sharply today. The Nasdaq Biotech Index ETF (IBB) rose 0.7% to $288.03, vastly outperforming the major indices. 3) Stocks Grind Gears Even with crude oil and biotechnology rocking hard, the S&P 500 couldn’t drive any upside, and it declined -0.2% to 2181. That felt a bit odd, since typically, stocks perform well when oil and biotech rally. Apple (AAPL) sank -2.6% on a downgrade from Wells Fargo, which weighed on the Nasdaq. Gold took a hit today as the dollar rose sharply against the yen, which sent gold miners (GDX) sharply lower. We also saw weakness in US Treasuries, retailers, and real estate names. Friday’s Economic Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:15 Fed’s Rosengren to Deliver Economic Forecast in Boston 09:30 Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in Austin, Texas 10:00 Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jul F): exp. 0.10%, prior 0.00% 10:00 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM (Jul): exp. 0.20%, prior 1.90% 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (9/9): prior 497 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs (9/9): prior 88 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs (9/9): prior 407 Global Economics 04:30 GBP Goods Trade Balance 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Earnings Before Open: Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) Kroger (KR) Mattress Firm Holding (MFRM) After Close: None of Significance
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Join This Week’s Training Sessions! They’re FREE! STARTING NOW!: Day and Swing Trading Signals You Need to Know Thursday 9/8: How to Start Trading Forex Like a Pro ******** 1) Did the Fed Go Too Far? If you’ve been following financial markets in any serious way, than you know that Fed officials, including FOMC Chair Janet Yellen, have been out in force getting the market ready for rate hikes. I now wonder if they went too far. Today, we saw disappointing Labor Market Conditions, ISM Services, and IBD/Tipp Economic Optimism. These were just the latest in a string of disappointing US economic data. Here is a chart of the Citi US Economic Surprise Index, which measures the strength of economic data relative to market expectations: As you can see, the trend turned decisively down in late July, when a disappointing second-quarter GDP report was released. Now, traders are pricing in a 51% chance of a December rate hike, down from 60% on Friday. 2) Gold Screams! With traders losing faith in the Fed’s willingness to raise rates, precious metals put in a repeat performance of Friday’s post-NFP rip. Gold rose 2.0% to $1353.90/oz, while the gold miners ETF (GDX) rose 4.4% to $28.56. Meanwhile, the US dollar fell hard against the yen and euro, and my colleague Kurt Capra is making the case that the dollar weakness could continue. I’d also consider reading Jeff Cooper’s recent work on gold. 3) Stocks: More of the Same The S&P 500 hasn’t made a 1% move since July 8, and today was more of the same. We still see pockets of volatility in areas like precious metals, biotechnology, and energy, but the broader markets are still going nowhere. The S&P rose 0.2% to 2173.81, with the Nasdaq doing slightly better due to strong action in biotech. Perhaps we’ll see some movement on Thursday, which has both the European Central Bank rate decision and US crude oil inventories. But with volatility at 2-year lows, I’m not holding my breath! Wednesday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (9/2): 2.80% 10:00 Fed’s Lacker and George Appear before House Financial Panel 10:00 JOLTS Job Openings (Jul): 5625 5624 12:00 DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook (Sep): 51.58 12:00 DOE Short-Term Mogas Outlook (Sep): 2.26 12:00 DOE Short-Term Diesel Outlook (Sep): 2.7 12:00 DOE Short-Term Ht Oil Outlook (Sep): 2.6 12:00 DOE Short-Term NatGas Outlook (Sep): 10.66 14:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Global Economics 03:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 03:30 GBP Halifax HPI m/m 04:30 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 09:15 GBP Inflation Report Hearings 10:00 CAD BOC Rate Statement 19:50 JPY Final GDP q/q 21:30 AUD Trade Balance Earnings Before Open: None of Significance After Close: FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
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Join Next Week’s Training Sessions! They’re FREE! Tuesday 9/6: Day and Swing Trading Signals You Need to Know Thursday 9/8: How to Start Trading Forex Like a Pro ********* By Michael Comeau 1) NFP Miss Today we got the big bad August nonfarm payrolls report, and unfortunately, it disappointed. The 151K headline number missed expectations by 29K, and unemployment came in below consensus. And perhaps most importantly, average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month-over-month, missing the 0.2% consensus. The Fed doesn’t make decisions based on a single data point, but watch the trend: US economic data has been on a downtrend as of late, as you can see in this chart of the Citi US Economic Surprise Index: 2) Gold Rocks – But Has Anything Changed? Gold had been selling off since mid-August on an endless stream of hawkish comments from Fed officials. However, with today’s NFP miss, traders decided to once again buy what now looks like an oversold dip. Gold rose 0.9% to $1329/oz and the gold miners ETF (GDX) rallied an impressive 3.6%, putting it up 7.3% in 2 days. However, the rally in gold does not imply that traders believe the Fed will go on hold. The US dollar was remarkably strong today after an early dip, and US Treasury yields rose. The dollar and yields tend to go up when traders believe the Fed will raise rates. 3) Bulls Fight Back In recent days, tension clearly appeared on the tape, but today’s NFP miss wasn’t bad enough to derail the bull. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 2179.98, while the Russell 2000 rose an impressive 1.0%. And much to my chagrin, the VIX fell 11.4% to 11.95. Regional banks were strong again, and we also saw a nice intraday rally in large-cap tech names, with Apple (AAPL) pushing up 0.9% to $107.76. On the downside, biotech (IBB) fell on Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton’s drug pricing plan, which is aimed at curbing “unjustified” drug price hikes. P.S. Don’t forget to check out our FREE trader training sessions.
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1) Jobs in Focus The nonfarm payrolls report is always one of the biggest events of the month, and with traders thinking the Fed is about to raise rates, tomorrow’s August report is no exception. Today, the US dollar fell on profit-taking following weaker-than-expected Markit US Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, and Construction Spending numbers. But it’s been had a nice bounce since the Fed hawks came out in force to prepare the market for additional rate hikes. So presumably, traders are gearing up for a repeat of the big July jobs report, which was an impressive across-the-board beat. 2) The Bears Fail in Spectacular Fashion. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 2157.09 in early trading and the VIX popped 8.9% to 14.61. That had a lot of folks — myself included — thinking the S&P would have its first 1% down day since June 27. However, that small dip was quickly bought and the index climbed up to finish flat on the day. Biotechnology overcame an early deficit to turn green, and we also saw rebounds in large cap tech and transports. Regional banks led the decliners column, and energy was weak due to another drop in oil prices. 3) Jeff Cooper on Twitter Twitter (TWTR) has been one of the hottest stocks in the market, and today, Jeff Cooper stepped in to break down the action: TWTR continues be on the prowl into the weekend on great expectations of something going on. This morning it Pinocchioed the 20 strike which perpetuated some selling and a pullback to yesterday’s highs coincident with the 20 period on the 10 min as anticipated in yesterday’s note. Note how this morning’s spike occurred out of an hourly bull flag following yesterday’s surge. Friday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Trade Balance (Jul): exp. -$41.4b, prior -$44.5b 08:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug): exp. 180k, prior 255k 08:30 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (Aug): prior 18k 08:30 Change in Private Payrolls (Aug): exp. 180k ,prior 217k 08:30 Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Aug): exp. -3k, prior 9k 08:30 Unemployment Rate (Aug): exp. 4.80%, prior 4.90% 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Aug): exp. 0.20%, prior 0.30% 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Aug): exp. 2.50%, prior 2.60% 08:30 Average Weekly Hours All Employees (Aug): exp. 34.5, prior 34.5 08:30 Change in Household Employment (Aug): prior 420 08:30 Labor Force Participation Rate (Aug): prior 62.80% 08:30 Underemployment Rate (Aug): prior 9.70% 09:45 ISM New York (Aug): prior 60.7 10:00 Factory Orders (Jul): exp. 2.00%, prior -1.50% 10:00 Factory Orders Ex Trans (Jul): prior 0.40% 10:00 Durable Goods Orders (Jul F): exp. 4.40%, prior 4.40% 10:00 Durables Ex Transportation (Jul F): exp. 1.50%, prior 1.50% 10:00 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (Jul F): prior 1.60% 10:00 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (Jul F): prior -0.40% 13:00 Fed’s Lacker Speaks on Interest Rate Benchmarks in Richmond 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (9/2): prior 489 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs (9/2): prior 81 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs (9/2): prior 406 Global Economics 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 04:30 GBP Construction PMI 08:30 CAD Trade Balance Earnings Before Open: None of Significance After Close: None of Significance
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“Don’t let yourself get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner.” -Neil McCauley, as portrayed by Robert DeNiro in Heat Before I get started, I’d like to invite you to check out the replay of our latest webinar Why You Shouldn’t Fear Forex. 1) Is that the Heat Around the Corner? For what seems like the 900th day in a row, the S&P 500 failed to make a substantial move. The index fell -0.2% to 2170.95 — far from a disaster — but tension is starting to appear on the tape. The index is now trading below its lost its 8 and 21 day exponential moving averages, indicating a loss of short-term momentum. Crude oil is almost 10% off its highs. (more on this below) Biotechnology, which has been slumping since Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s attack on Mylan (MYL) last week, continued its losing streak. The Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) recently lost its 20 day moving average, and it is sitting right on top of its 50 day moving average — a break of which could spook traders. However, keep in mind that the bears have not been able to score a real victory since June 27, when the S&P fell -1.8% post-Brexit. Since then, we have not had a single 1% down day. 2) Crude Oil Takes a Big Hit WTI crude oil dropped over 3% below $45 today on another bearish inventory report. The E.I.A. said US crude stocks rose 2.3 million barrels last week, which was well above the 1.3 million consensus. This was the second large surprise build in a row, giving traders another reason to take profits ahead of the September OPEC meeting in Algeria. There has been assorted chatter that OPEC will announce a production freeze at meeting, but that’s clearly up in the air. 3) The Hawk Trade Rages On The big hawk trade — long US dollar, long banks, and short gold — is still going strong on hopes of more Fed rate hikes. In the equity markets, the gold miners (GDX) continue to take the brunt of the damage, with GDX falling -1.6% after yesterday’s -4.9% decline. And on the flip side, regional banks (KRE) continue to be a source of leadership. KRE is a good ETF for active traders to follow since it makes bigger moves than the better-known S&P Financials ETF (XLF). Thursday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Aug): -57.10% 08:30 Nonfarm Productivity (2Q F): exp. -0.60%, prior -0.50% 08:30 Unit Labor Costs (2Q F): exp. 2.10%, prior 2.00% 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (8/27): exp. 265k, prior 261k 08:30 Continuing Claims (8/20): exp. 2145k, prior 2145k 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (8/28): prior 45.3 09:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Aug F): exp. 52.1, prior 52.1 10:00 Construction Spending MoM (Jul): exp. 0.50%, prior -0.60% 10:00 ISM Manufacturing (Aug): exp. 52, prior 52.6 10:00 ISM Prices Paid (Aug): exp. 54.8, prior 55 10:00 ISM New Orders (Aug): prior 56.9 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (8/26): exp. 42, prior 11 10:30 EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (8/26): exp. 42, prior 11 12:25 Fed’s Mester Speaks to Kentucky Philanthropy Initiative Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales (Aug): exp. 13.50m, prior 13.77m Wards Total Vehicle Sales (Aug): exp. 17.20m, prior 17.77m Global Economics 03:15 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Earnings Before Open: Campbell Soup (CPB) Ciena Corp (CIEN) Joy Global (JOY) Lululemon Athletica (LULU) After Close: Ambarella (AMBA) Broadcom (AVGO) Smith & Wesson Holding (SWHC)
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1) The Hawk Trade Rages on Today, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said he believes that productivity growth will rebound, keeping traders confident that the Fed will raise rates again this year. This helped boost the popular long dollar/short gold trade. The dollar rose by 1.1% against the yen and 0.4% against the euro, while gold fell -2.0%. The junior gold miners ETF (GDXJ), which has more than doubled this year, took the brunt of the damage today with a -4.9 decline. 2) Shifty Markets Aside from the ugliness in gold, stocks remain range-bound as traders await the return of volatility. The S&P 500 fell -0.2% to 2176.12, making today the 37th straight trading day without a 1% move in the S&P 500. Market volatility is as low as it’s been since November 2014. Banks were strong courtesy of the hawkish Fed talk and prospect of rising rates, while utilities and retailers were weak. The important biotech sector was down, but no major damage was done. 3) Apple Stung on Tax Beef Today, the European Commission found that Ireland gave Apple (AAPL) an illegal “selective tax treatment.” Apple has been ordered to repay 13 billion euros ($14.5 billion) plus interest, though Ireland will appeal the ruling. Apple traded as low as $103.50 in premarket trading, and it finished at $106.00, down -0.8%. The verdict also impacted the shares of other tech names that use Ireland as a tax haven, namely Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB). Wednesday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 03:15 Fed’s Rosengren to Address Financial Conference in Beijing 03:15 Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Beijing 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 26): -2.10% 08:00 Fed’s Kashkari Speaks on Fed Structure in St. Paul 08:15 ADP Employment Change (Aug): exp. 175k, prior 179k 09:45 Chicago Purchasing Manager (Aug): exp. 54, prior 55.8 10:00 Pending Home Sales MoM (Jul): exp. 0.70%, prior 0.20% 10:00 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY (Jul): exp. 2.20%, prior 0.30% 10:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (8/26): exp. 1300k, prior 2501k 10:30 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (8/26): exp. 400k, prior 375k 10:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (8/26): exp. -1000k, prior 36k 10:30 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (8/26): exp. -125k, prior 122k 10:30 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (8/26): exp. -0.50%, prior -1.00% 10:30 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (8/26): prior 16833 10:30 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (8/26): prior 10113.4 10:30 DOE Distillate Implied Demand (8/26): prior 5055.6 Global Economics 02:00 EUR German Retail Sales m/m 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Change 05:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate 08:30 CAD GDP m/m 21:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI 21:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditures 21:30 AUD Retail Sales 21:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Earnings Before Open: None of significance After Close: Five Below (FIVE) Salesforce.com (CRM)
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In today’s Daily Recap video, T3’s Rob Smith breaks down the action on a very exciting Fed day.
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1) Fed Follies: Jackson Hole Edition Traders were looking for a hawkish Yellen and a hawkish Yellen is what they got. At her highly-awaited Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that the case for rate hikes “has strengthened in recent months,” echoing recent hawkish comments from other Fed officials. Initially, the market made the obvious moves — the US dollar spiked, and gold and US Treasuries collapsed. However, the moves were very quickly retraced, with the dollar and gold falling. This implied the market was having a massive “sell the news” reaction to Yellen meeting market expectations. 2) The Reaction to the Reaction to the Reaction Following that counter-reaction, the big hawk trade — strong dollar and weak gold/bonds — continued. Here is an intra-day chart of the US dollar index starting at 8:00 a.m. ET, which is a pretty good illustration of the market reaction to Yellen’s speech: As you can see, the dollar briefly dove before skyrocketing into the equity market close. We saw similar zaniness in gold and US Treasuries. 3) Equity Traders Take a Little Ride Fed funds futures now imply a 63% probability of a December rate hike, up from 47% a week ago. The prospect of higher rates had equity traders taking profits. At one point, the S&P 500 looked like it may have its first 1% down day since June 27, and the VIX hit 14.93, a level not seen since early July. However, stocks crawled up into the close, with the index finishing down -0.2% at 2169.04. Stocks that benefit from lower interest rates, like utilities, gold miners, and real estate names, took major hits. On the plus side, biotechnology had a solid up day after afternoon failures on Wednesday and Thursday. P.S. Want to up your trading skills? Check out our free webinars! Monday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Personal Income (Jul): exp. 0.40%, prior 0.20% 08:30 Personal Spending (Jul): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.40% 08:30 Real Personal Spending (Jul): exp. 0.20%, prior 0.30% 08:30 PCE Deflator MoM (Jul): exp. 0.00%, prior 0.10% 08:30 PCE Deflator YoY (Jul): exp. 0.80%, prior 0.90% 08:30 PCE Core MoM (Jul): exp. 0.10%, prior 0.10% 08:30 PCE Core YoY (Jul): exp. 1.50%, prior 1.60% 10:30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (Aug): exp. -3, prior -1.3 Global Economics All Day GBP Bank Holiday 19:30 JPY Household Spending y/y 21:30 AUD Building Approvals m/m Earnings Before Open: None of significance After Close: None of significance
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1) Fed Schmed… Today, the Fed released the Minutes from its July meeting. Traders were pricing in a 51% chance of a December rate hike, which meant expectations were split right down the middle. Unfortunately, we did not get much on the Fed’s near-term trajectory. Some FOMC officials are waiting for signs of improved inflation trends. Others were more optimistic, saying that the labor market is approaching maximum employment, and that progress in reaching the Fed’s inflation goals is expected continue. But overall, the Fed leaned dovish, which sent the dollar lower, and commodities higher. 2) The Grind Continues Following lackluster action overseas, US markets were weak in early trading, and the S&P 500 looked like it may even put in its first down day since July 27. But after dipping to 2168.50, the index ran up in a straight line, aside from a tiny dip following the release of the FOMC Minutes. By day’s end, the S&P managed to squeeze into the green with a 0.2% gain. Utilities led the winners’ column on the Fed’s dovishness, while small caps showed relative weakness. And much to my chagrin, the VIX hit an early high at 13.71, but collapsed to 12.17 as stocks climbed off the lows. 3) Crude Oil Keeps on Chugging Oil prices rallied again today after a bullish inventory report from the Energy Information Administration. Economists expected a 950,000 increase in inventories, but they fell a whopping -2.5 million. Gasoline inventories also fell significantly. Oil was also boosted by the weak dollar, and ongoing hopes an OPEC production freeze or cut. As a result, energy stocks outperformed today. Thursday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (8/13): exp. 265k, prior 266k 08:30 Continuing Claims (8/6): exp. 2141k, prior 2155k 08:30 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Aug): exp. 2, prior -2.9 09:45 Bloomberg Economic Expectations (Aug): prior 44.5 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (8/14): prior 41.8 10:00 Fed’s Dudley Answers Questions at Press Briefing in New York 10:00 Leading Index (Jul): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.30% 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (8/12): exp. 26, prior 29 10:30 EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (8/12): exp. 26, prior 29 16:00 Federal Reserve President John Williams Speaks in Anchorage 20:00 Fed’s Kaplan to Speak in Dallas Global Economics 04:30 GBP Retail Sales m/m 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases Earnings Before Open: Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ) Wal Mart Stores (WMT) After Close: Gap Inc (GPS) Ross Stores (ROSS)
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