Tag Archives for " ECB "
The Morning Hammer: Let’s Go Super Mario!
Crude oil is up 1.7% this morning after the American Petroleum Institute reported a massive 12 million barrel drop in crude stocks. I’d have thought oil would be up even more on that massive numbers, but there are likely 2 factors at play: 1) The E.I.A. numbers hit at 10:30 a.m. ET, and traders may want confirmation. (consensus here is +905K, but the huge API drop would imply that traders expect the E.I.A. numbers to also show a drop. 2) The question of whether OPEC will freeze or cut output at the big meeting in Algiers is a mystery. Iran said it’s too early to discuss a freeze, while Iraq said it coudl support one. Good luck sorting out the confusing and contradictory news flow, which is very reminiscent of what we saw in the lead-up to the June OPEC meeting, which ended with no change in policy. So let’s lump OPEC in with the Fed — there is just no telling what’s next! SPX futures are flat as an ironing board, which is no surprise given that we haven’t had a 1% move in the index since July 8. Traders are complacent… or they’re falling asleep. So far, it looks like we have 1 chance for excitement today — Mario Draghi’s press conference at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning. The ECB rate decision hits at 7:45 a.m. ET, and odds are nothing changes there. Twitter (TWTR) is off a little after CNBC reported that there are “no bids on the table.” Twitter is starting to remind me of the old Research In Motion (RIMM) (now known as BBRY) — I can’t go 10 minutes without hearing a made-up takeover rumors. Supermarket chain Supervalue (SVU) lowered guidance due to competition and deflation — exactly what we heard from Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) yesterday. Wells Fargo (WFC) downgraded Apple (AAPL) following yesterday’s product launch event, saying the positives are priced in and shares are likely to remain range-bound. Apple is quickly recovering pre-market losses though and is nearly back to flat. Citi is recommending overweighting Russian stocks, saying dividends may increase — though Russia just seems like part of the oil trade. Yesterday afternoon, Reuters reported that GW Pharma (GWPH) hired advisers after being approached by potential buyers. Cantor is out saying it could be worth $165/share. It’s off a few bucks in premarket trading. The GWPH chatter pushed biotech up hard into the close yesterday — I wonder if there’s any follow-through today. Good luck out there!
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Hillary Clinton Derails Pokémon Go Hype Train
Want to Boost Your Trading Skills? Click here to sign up for one of our FREE trading webinars ******** By Michael Comeau 1) US Dollar Kills Commodities The US dollar extended its rally today as traders are once again pricing in US rate hikes this year. Just after the Brexit, Fed Funds futures implied a mere 9% chance of a December rate hike. Those odds are now back up to 48%. At the same time, traders believe the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank will add more stimulus, which would push major currencies down against the dollar. The dollar’s rise sent oil, gold, and silver lower. The drop in oil drove some equity market profit-taking, and the S&P 500 fell -0.3% to 2168.48, though the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 did slightly better. Biotechnology was strong ahead of Gilead’s (GILD) after earnings report, even though some analysts warned Gilead could miss expectations. And after a week of going nowhere, the VIX rose 8%, implying that traders are starting to price in some actual potential downside. 2) Will the Gold Trap Continue? T3 Live’s Jeff Cooper seems to think so. This is what he told Daily Market Report subscribers this morning: It’s a Monday and another golden hammer. Last Wednesday, gold and miners had a breakaway gap to the downside followed by a sharp rebound on Thursday when GDXJ backtested its overhead 20 day. Today’s gap down looks like the second cheese will get the mouse for those looking for a more pronounced pullback. See daily GDXJ here from June with 20 day. 3) The Nintendo Hype Train Gets Derailed Nintendo shares doubled in less than 2 weeks after the release of its incredible popular Pokémon Go game. However, Nintendo collapsed 17% today after the company admitted that the game would not produce meaningful revenues, even though the game is so popular that some tech experts believe it is impacting the use of social media apps like Twitter (TWTR). On July 15, I mused that Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s awkward Pokémon Go joke was a sign that the craze was getting out of hand. Incidentally, Nintendo shares topped out the next day, and it’s all been downhill from there: With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, that looks like a perfect fad stock top!
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