Tag Archives for " economic data "
T3’s Take 3: Booming Oil Revs Up the Bulls
1) Crude Oil Booms on Production Cut Hopes Oil prices rose for the third straight day as traders continue to hope for a production cut at the September OPEC meeting. This morning, Russian news agency Interfax reported that OPEC may not in fact make a cut, which caused a small dip that was very quickly bought, implying that traders really do believe a cut is coming. WTI crude rose 3.0% to $45.83, while the S&P Energy ETF (XLE) rose 0.8%, making it the best performing major sector ETF. Oil service stocks and energy master limited partnerships also performed well. 2) Oil Inspiration Inspired by crude oil’s hard bounce, the S&P 500 made another all-time high today at 2193.81 before finishing at 2190.15, up 0.3% on the day. While this was the 26th straight trading day without a 1% move in the index, there were some very positive signs below the surface. The biotechnology sector put in a big gain today, and the Russell 2000significantly outperformed the S&P. We also saw notable strength in cybersecurity software, regional banks, and transports. This indicates that even with equity markets at record highs, traders are still very comfortable putting on risk. 3) More Weak Economic Numbers Post-Brexit, one pleasant surprise we’ve seen has been a pretty nice streak of positive economic data surprises. But starting with the 7/29 GDP report, we’ve seen quite a few lousy reports, culminating in today’s Empire Manufacturing miss. Individual economic data points are little more than noise. The trend is far more important. Look at this chart of the Citi US Economic Surprise Index — it is definitely sliding: For now, the weak data is being ignored. But I wonder if that changes with the avalanche of big reports coming over the next 2 days (Housing Starts, Building Permits, CPI, Industrial Production, etc.). If they’re mostly bad, the market may start caring about the numbers. In the meantime, why argue? P.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Dave Green’s FREE trading webinar. US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Housing Starts (Jul): exp. 1180k, prior 1189k 08:30 Housing Starts MoM (Jul): exp. -0.80%, prior 4.80% 08:30 Building Permits (Jul): exp. 1160k, prior 1153k 08:30 Building Permits MoM (Jul): exp. 0.60%, prior 1.50% 08:30 CPI MoM (Jul): exp. 0.00%, prior 0.20% 08:30 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Jul): exp. 0.20%, prior 0.20% 08:30 CPI YoY (Jul): exp. 0.90%, prior 1.00% 08:30 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Jul): exp. 2.30%, prior 2.30% 08:30 CPI Index NSA (Jul): exp. 240.805, prior 241.038 08:30 CPI Core Index SA (Jul): exp. 247.872, prior 247.495 08:30 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (Jul): prior 1.20% 09:15 Industrial Production MoM (Jul): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.60% 09:15 Capacity Utilization (Jul): exp. 75.60%, prior 75.40% 09:15 Manufacturing (SIC) Production (Jul): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.40% 12:30 Fed’s Lockhart Speaks to Rotary Club of Knoxville Global Economics 00:30 JPY Industrial Production 09:00 CAD Existing Home Sales 16:30 NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speaks in Tauranga 21:30 AUD RBA Aug. Meeting Minutes Earnings Before Open: Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Dick’s Sporting Goods (D TJX (TJX) After Close: Cree (CREE) Jack Henry JKHY) Urban Outfitters (URBN)
Continue Reading -->I Won’t Argue With the Results.. and 4 Other Thoughts on Today’s Action
Want to Start Earning Bigger, More Consistent Profits? Dave Green can show you how! 1) More Lousy Data Post-Brexit, one pleasant surprise we’ve seen has been a pretty nice streak of positive economic data surprises. But starting with the 7/29 GDP report, we’ve seen quite a few lousy reports, culminating in today’s Empire Manufacturing miss. Individual economic data points are little more than noise. The trend is far more important. Look at this chart of the Citi US Economic Surprise Index — it is definitely sliding. For now, the weak data is being ignored. But I wonder if that changes with the avalanche of big reports coming over the next 2 days (Housing Starts, Building Permits, CPI, Industrial Production, etc.). 2) Can’t Argue With the Results Crude oil got shaken up by this morning’s Interfax report that OPEC will not pursue an output cut at the September meeting. However, oil prices surged right back and oil stocks are outperforming the major indices. It’s probably best if traders do not expect an output cut. Last time around at the 6/2 OPEC meeting, traders came in expecting a cut and didn’t get it, and that was right near the interim top in oil. 3) Mr. Russell One common complaint the bears are throwing around is that the Russell 2000 has not confirmed the all-time highs in SPX/DJIA/NASDAQ/NDX. It would be nice if the Russell could make new all-time highs, but there’s no so such thing as a perfect bull move. Besides, the Russell is rapidly making up the difference and outperforming SPX today by a more than 2:1 ratio. 4) Bio-POWER! Biotech is back on the warpath and making its way toward IBB’s $299.49 high on 8/4. Round numbers are meaningless but I bet traders would be excited to see it make a clean move about $300. And better yet — XBI, which is more representative of the broader spectrum of biotech stock — is outperforming IBB by a big margin today. IBB makes bigger headlines, but XBI is actually more important. 5) Headline of the Day S&P 500 Dregs Stage Uprising in Bull Market That Now Makes Sense There’s something odd about declaring that the market “now makes sense” after a series of record highs, and adding that “there’s a lot to like in a market as hated as this one.” This article “feels” like the type of thing you would read towards the end of a frustrating rally — not the middle of one. That said, the bulls are putting on a good show today and again, I don’t argue with the results, even when they hurt me.
Continue Reading -->Did We Just See the Return of Volatility?
Want to Kick Your Options Trading Up a Notch? My buddy Doug Robertson is hosting a FREE options trading webinar this Thursday where he’s teaching his secrets for generating major options profits in volatile markets. Click here for more information By Michael Comeau 1) The Return of Volatility Over the past two weeks, market volatility collapsed as the S&P 500 made a succession of all-time highs within an extremely tight trading range. And in fact, the S&P hasn’t had a real down day since June 27, when it fell -1.8% in the aftermath of the June 24 Brexit vote. The zero-volatility trend felt like it started to break today as the index dropped as much as -1.1% intraday before finishing at 2156.2, down -0.7%. The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 showing even bigger losses as traders cut down risk. Japan set off the selling by announcing a much smaller-than-expected increase in government spending, which sent the yen higher and global equities lower. The yen is seen as a key safety asset, and thus it tends to rise when markets are uncertain. But that wasn’t the only issue today… 2) Oil, Economic Data, Banks Crude oil gave up an early gain to slide back below the $40/barrel mark, which means it’s nearly 25% off the highs. Given that crude oil’s ascent was a major driver of equity market sentiment in the rally off the February 11 lows, a fast drop down can’t be good. We also saw some disappointing economic data, with Personal Income and PCE Deflator numbers missing expectations. This followed Friday’s lousy GDP report, which ended a pretty impressive streak of economic data beats. And finally, Germany’s Commerzbank lowered its full-year earnings forecast, with its stock dropping -8.5% intraday to a 24-year low. That put a chill under US banks. 3) So What’s Next? The pickup in volatility is a good thing, because it means fear is coming back into the market. That could be exactly what we need to reload for another leg higher following this sideways consolidation. But near-term, there’s a decent chance the market goes nowhere until Friday, when the eagerly-awaited July nonfarm payrolls report hits. Traders’ rate hike expectations have been declining since Friday’s GDP report. But strong jobs numbers could flip that around in a jiffy, which could send positive reverberations throughout global markets, which is exactly what we saw last month. Wednesday Preview US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (7/29): prior -11.20% 08:15 ADP Employment Change (Jul): exp. 170k, prior 172k 09:45 Markit US Services PMI (Jul F): exp. 51, prior 50.9 09:45 Markit US Composite PMI (Jul F): prior 51.5 10:00 ISM Non-Manf. Composite (Jul): exp. 55.9, prior 56.5 10:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (7/29): exp. -2000k, prior 1671k 10:30 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (7/29): exp. 275k, prior 1110k 10:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (7/29): exp. -1000k, prior 452k 10:30 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (7/29): exp. -500k, prior -780k 10:30 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (7/29): exp. 0.00%, prior -0.80% 10:30 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (7/29): prior 16713 10:30 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (7/29): prior 10250.9 10:30 DOE Distillate Implied Demand (7/29): prior 5122.4 Global Economics 04:30 GBP Services PMI 21:30 AUD Retail Sales m/m Earnings Before the Open: 3D Systems (DDD) Charles River Laboratories (CRL) Humana (HUM) After the Close: Albemarle Corp (ALB) Allstate Corp (ALL) Continental Resources (CLR) J2 Global (JCOM) Oasis Petroleum (OAS) Tesla Motors (TSLA)
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