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Red Dog Rules Volume 1: Facebook’s Journey to $150
One half of life is luck; the other half is discipline – and that’s the important half, for without discipline you wouldn’t knowwhat to do with your luck.-Carl Zuckmayer Welcome to the first edition of Red Dog Rules, an all-new trading and technical analysis video series by Scott Redler, Chief Strategic Officer of T3 Live. You’re going to learn how Scott attacks the market through real-world case studies and tutorials so you can take your trading to the next level. To Scott, trading is a marathon. It’s not a sprint. That’s why he takes a practical, rules-based approach to the market. Markets change, stocks change, and sectors change. But one thing remains the same — the importance of staying disciplined and grounded.In fact, the most successful traders focus on reducing risk above else. Why? Because one major mistake can knock you out of the game for good. In this edition, Scott gives you an in-depth look at one of the hottest stocks in the market, social media giant Facebook (FB): Watch this video and learn:Why the biggest risk you can take in the market is NOT participatingThe dangers of being lured in by the bears’ negative stories, like the claim that Facebook was set to lose 80% of its users by 2017The technical analysis signals that told Scott Facebook was ready to rockScott’s 3 favorite moving averages rulesHow the cup & handle pattern worksP.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Scott’s video on his favorite trading strategy — the Red Dog Reversal — below!
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Pre-election Oversold Bounce?
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about what has happen overseas and how that impacts the U.S. Markets. He also discusses the Facebook (FB) earnings and how it is acting pre-market. Scott also looks at other high beta tech name along with GLD.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Ranges and Noise
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler puts all this sideways action into perspective by looking at the longer term SPX chart. He then takes a look into the recent daily action, which has been choppy, to say the least. Scott notes that it is likely to stay this way until after the election. He also looks at some recent earnings names as well as FB which will report tomorrow.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Twitter Skyrockets on M&A Chatter, Facebook Not so Much
Trade Options Like a Pro… My buddy Doug Robertson is hosting a FREE options trading webinar next week. Doug’s going to be teaching his unique method for creating income with options, so I suggest you check it out. 1) Twitter Blasts Into Orbit This morning, CNBC reported that Twitter (TWTR) may be in talks to be taken over by Google (GOOGL) or Salesforce.com (CRM). While Twitter has been the source of regular takeover rumors for over a year, traders certainly seemed to believe the new chatter. Twitter shares rose an incredible 21.4% to $22.62 today, its best performance in over 2 years, while call options volume exploded. In fact, Twitter call options set a volume record today, surpassing their last record set on December 26, 2013 – when Twitter’s stock price hit an all-time high of $74.73. 2) Markets Take a Break US stocks took a breather today after 4 straight days of gains and a record high in the Nasdaq Composite yesterday. The S&P 500 fell -0.6% to 2164.69 as traders locked in gains. Large cap tech was weak, with Apple (AAPL) falling -1.7% to $112.71 after market research firm GFK said iPhone 7 sales could disappoint. Crude oil dropped -3.2% to $44.85 after Saudi Arabia dismissed reports of an output freeze or cut at next week’s OPEC meeting in Algiers. As a result, oil and energy services stocks led the decliners’ column. Biotechnology, industrials, and financials were also weak. 3) Facebook Suffers a PR Blow Shares of momentum favorite Facebook (FB) took a little dive today after apologizing for an error in its video measurement tools. Facebook mistakenly overstated the average time its users spent watching videos for the past 2 years. This news raises questions about the success of Facebook’s high-profile push into video, and is causing some frustration on the part of advertisers that make decisions based upon Facebook video metrics. However, Facebook said that its miscalculations did not impact customer billings or the number of video views, which should soften the blow to some extent. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Doug Robertson’s options event. Monday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 10:00 New Home Sales (Aug): exp. 600k, prior 654k 10:00 New Home Sales MoM (Aug): exp. -8.30%, prior 12.40% 10:30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (Sep): exp. -3, prior -6.2 11:45 Fed’s Tarullo Speaks on Next Steps in Bank Stress Testing 13:30 Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in San Antonio Moderated Q&A Global Economics 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate 05:30 CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks 10:00 EUR ECB Pres. Draghi Speaks 19:10 CAD BOC Gov. Poloz Speaks Earnings Before Open: Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) Carnival Corp (CCL) After Close: None of Significance
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Chart Attack: AAPL, FB
Yesterday’s tactical plan for Apple (AAPL) to buy/test near the 8day was a good road map. Now we’ll see if $108.30ish holds and builds an upper floor to digest a nice post earnings move from $102.75 to $110.23. Some of my spreads expire this Friday. September will sit. Facebook (FB) has been digesting/lethargic since they sold the earnings report at highs. Yesterday could be a start as I nibbled at the 21 day which has been support. In order for it to get better, it needs to take out and close above $124.40 but the real area is $126. Positions Disclosure: Scott J. Redler is long AAPL call spreads, FB P.S. Want to get an edge in today’s algo/HFT-driven markets? Click here to learn about Rob Smith’s FREE Quant Edge Webinar
Continue Reading -->Crude’s Big Move… and 4 Other Thoughts on Today’s Action
Attention! On Thursday afternoon, T3 Live’s Dave Green is hosting a FREE trading webinar. Click here to learn how Dave crushes the market! 1) Crude Move Crude oil got a nice lift on this morning’s EIA inventory numbers. We saw a substantial builds in overall and Cushing, OK inventories, but massive draws in gasoline and distillate inventories. However, we’ve gotten other recent data (Saudi pumping levels, API data) that is bearish, and it’s now down a little. If crude oil can’t hold, it will embolden the bears. 2) Bio/Pharma Weakness Biotech and pharma are getting hit today on negative news from Eli Lilly (LLY) and Mylan (MYL), which is not good because health care is a key bull driver However, they’ve rocketed off post-Brexit lows so it’s fair to accept some consolidation after big, dramatic moves. A move off the lows would be encouraging, though I wouldn’t count on it. 3) Sentiment The ISE Sentiment Index is reading 100 as of 10:30 a.m. ET, which is perfectly neutral. (100 calls bought for every 100 puts) However, there is opposing action between individual names and the index/ETF sides. On the index side, traders look pretty bearish. (just 35 calls for every 100 puts) In individual names, the reading is 155 (155 calls for every 100 puts). Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey was released today, showing that 54.3% of newsletter writers are bullish. This is very close to II’s 55% danger zone. 4) Large Cap Tech Sagging Big tech names like Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) are looking “saggy” today, for lack of a better term. Like the health care complex, they could use a little consolidation time after posting big gains. That said, traders may get discouraged of tech loses its leadership status, since it’s played a big role in keeping equities at all-time highs. 5) Still No Vol… Volatility is still nowhere to be found. So far today, the S&P has trade in a less than 5-point range, which is threatening to put me to sleep all over again. I still think we’ll get a volatility spike soon, but there’s no sign of it yet today. Look at oil. We’ve gotten a lot of news is the past 18 hours, and it’s still barely doing anything. Click here to check out Dave Green’s webinar this Thursday!
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: The Sideways Shuffle
By T3 Live Staff Come join us in a FREE webinar! Click here for the upcoming schedule. 1) The Sideways Shuffle Today we saw what many traders have been looking for; an up day in Oil. This is the first time in the last 7 sessions that Oil was able to close bullish. The S&P 500 was sideways, once again, but able to close near the top of the range, up 0.18%. It is closing in on a month since the last time the S&P has produced a 1% move or better. The Nasdaq outperformed, again, on heels of strong earnings from GOOGL and AMZN. Gold found its way to the top of the advancers’ column today, with GLD rising 1.05%. 2) Range Precedes Price Today, Jeff Cooper provided some insight into the action on DexCom (DXCM): Our old friend DXCM continues its runaway move. Note the Spike Volume Bottom in Feb that defined the washout when everyone who wanted out got out. The large range breakout on 7/19 on increasing volume saw DXCM reclaim 50 % of this years range. From that point, DXCM has been in runaway mode. Typically runaway moves don’t offer much in the way of daily pullbacks so using an Opening Range Breakout is a good strategy. Also buying on the first intraday pullback offers defined risk entry. Today for example DXCM gapped open, pulled back into the gap window and exploded higher. 3) In Weakness, Opportunity is Found Our friend, Kurt Capra provided an interesting take on yesterday’s bearish candle on Facebook (FB): So, Facebook (FB) reported earnings after the close on Wednesday leading to a gap up Thursday morning to new all-time highs. After dancing around the first 2 hours of the day, FB began to pullback into the gap. It proceeded all the way down, finally finding support at $124.00, leaving the daily chart with a large red candle. To most, that would be seen as bearish. But, if you look beyond face value, it is an opportunity to get long for a ride back to, and through all time highs. Why would this be case? Take a look at the hourly chart from today and you’ll see a pullback and double bottom. So, the red bar from Thursday was nothing more than a controlled pullback to support and the whole number ($124); nothing to be scared of. In fact, quite the opposite. To the trained eye, this is an opportunity to get long, from a great spot, and enjoy a ride back to, and through, all time highs. If fact, if you go back and look at the daily chart of FB, notice how many times red bars were negated within the next day or two? This is a powerful concept that combines multiple timeframes with pattern recognition; something all traders should intimately understand. P.S.- If a double bottom fails, it can be an even bigger opportunity…even in failure, there is opportunity!!
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take T3: Pop & Drop at the F.B. Corral!
By Michael Comeau 1) Lucky 13 for Facebook Yesterday after the close, social media giant Facebook (FB) delivered a massive earnings beat, sending shares as high as $133.91 in extended trading, or up 8.6%. The company is seeing significant growth in mobile, higher revenue from Instagram, and improving user engagement metrics, Facebook’s huge numbers weren’t exactly a surprise, since the company had beaten Wall Street’s earnings estimates for 12 straight quarters, making yesterday lucky number 13. This set the stage for a sell-the-news reaction, and Facebook finished well off the highs at $125.00 up 1.4% on the day. However, Facebook shares are still doing incredibly well in 2016 with a 19.4% year-to-date gain. 2) Jeff Cooper on Facebook’s Exhaustion Signal This afternoon, my buddy Jeff Cooper issued an interesting take on Facebook’s weakness: FB is poised to leave a large-range Gilligan sell signal if it closes at/near session lows. This is an exhaustion signal marked by a gap up to a new 60 day high with a close at/near session lows. AAPL is a different pattern as its earning’s gap was not a gap to new 60 day highs or 52 week highs or all time highs as is the case with FB. My takeaway is that institutions are scale-up sellers on pops. Tomorrow we get the reaction to two other FANG stocks (AMZN and GOOGL). If they react similarly to FB or don’t blow out expectations, there may be nothing left on the table to prevent a slide. 3) Another Day, Another Grind Given that crude oil is a major drive of equity market sentiment, I’ve been a bit surprised at how well equities have held up in the face of oil’s near-20% decline off the highs. And again today, we saw oil decline sharply… and stocks basically rolled their eyes. The S&P 500 went nowhere for the second day in a row, finishing at 2170.06, up 0.2%. In fact, the S&P hasn’t made a 1% move since July 8. Facebook and Apple’s (AAPL) small gains today helped the Nasdaq outperform. Biotechnology led the decliners’ column today, with the S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) falling -0.5%. Energy stocks were down on oil’s decline, with oil service names showing notable dips. P.S. My partner in crime Kurt Capra is hosting a FREE trading webinar after the close on Tuesday, August 2, 2016. Click here to sign up
Continue Reading -->Fed-Induced Breather or Run of the Mill Digestion?
Global markets are flashing slightly red this morning despite yet another whopper of an earnings report from Facebook (FB). Facebook is around $130 and making new record highs, and I’m asking myself why I ever sold this stock. It’s especially impressive in the face of Twitter’s (TWTR) struggle to just meet its own guidance. NDX futures are slightly in the red, as are SPX futures. Overnight, Euro-area economic confidence beat expectations and German and Spanish unemployment declined. We’ve talked extensively about how post-Brexit data has been beating expectations, and the trend continues. Of course, this plays right into a conversation about the Fed because the Brexit has been a source of concern. Yesterday, the Fed said it is less worried about near-term economic risks, which wasn’t a total surprise given the aforementioned data trends. Some folks are attributing today’s little slump to the Fed’s little hawkish twist, but I’m not buying that for 2 reasons: 1) The dollar actually FELL and gold rose after the release of yesterday’s Fed statement, showing that traders still think the Fed’s going to move slowly. The perceived odds of a Fed rate hike have risen, but perhaps not enough just yet. The dollar and gold are also following through on yesterday’s moves. 2) We’ve come a long, long way. The SPX is up 166 handles from the post Brexit lows and the FTSE 100 is up even more on a percentage basis. (see chart) This little sideways grind feels more like run-of-the-mill digestion, which I think could continue. I see August as being similar to the April-May snoozefest that bankrupted hordes of aggressive put options buyers. SPX barely budged yesterday, but there were some positives below the surface. Tech (inspired by Apple’s (AAPL) big earnings report, biotech, and small caps al did quite well, even with another big drop in crude oil. Crude oil is an important driver of risk sentiment and fundamentals (it heavily impacts earnings and high-yield energy bonds), so I’m a bit puzzled at how the market yawned at a near-20% drop in WTI crude. The big question I’m asking now is whether the good news we’re getting (solid economic data, huge earnings from AAPL and FB) is coming just in time for a short-term top. In my mind, price leads news (or as Mr. Jeff Cooper says, the news breaks with the cycles), so I’m wondering if this nice little streak of happy news is justifying all-time highs after the fact. We’ve got Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL) hitting after the close today. Should both of them beat, it will be interesting to see if that inspires real buying. For now, we still feel stretched and sentiment is positive, but you can’t argue with price — the bulls are holding strong. Good luck friends.
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