Tag Archives for " GLD "
Morning Call Express: Digestion or Indigestion
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler discusses the weakness we saw yesterday and what we can expect this week. He also maps out how the recent “Trump Rally” had similar action to the Brexit move. Scott also looks at the chart of Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), and Gold (GLD).
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Question Marks
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler paints a portrait of the landscape out there as the markets are taking a little breather this morning. He provides the levels that he is looking at for support and what would need to happen to begin changing trends. Scott also looks at high beta tech which was able to close green yesterday and the strong move up in oil.
Continue Reading -->The Point of Gold Recognition?
A few days ago we offered that GDXJ/GLD were at inflection points and that the next leg up to 1425/1450 in gold may be here. Yesterday may have been the first step. The behavior on the first pullback will be key to observe with subsequent follow through. If GDXJ offsets $49-50, which from a bearish perspective is a right shoulder of an H&S top, that should confirm the idea of a new leg up because fast moves come from failed patterns. A failed Head & Shoulders top implies new highs in GDXJ. Moreover, new swing highs in gold will be a point of recognition for those bearish of gold who believe this years rally was a bear market rally. New highs could create a vacuum as the perception that a bull market in gold is underway takes hold. Click here to learn more about Jeff Cooper’s Daily Market Report.
Continue Reading -->Gold Screams Afters Yellen Fails to Move the Needle
Traders were looking for a hawkish Yellen and a hawkish Yellen is what they got. At her highly-awaited Jackson Hole speech, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen said that the case for rate hikes “has strengthened in recent months,” echoing recent hawkish comments from other Fed officials. Initially, the market moved as we expected — the US dollar spiked, and gold and US Treasuries collapsed. However, the moves were very quickly retraced. Here’s the dollar index: Here is gold (GLD): The junior gold miners (GDXJ): TLT: Crude oil is also on FIRE: So we are getting the ‘sell the news’ scenario I presented in today’s Morning Hammer column. (not that I bet on it…) Since Yellen delivered exactly what the market expected, the hawk trades (gold down, Treasuries down) aren’t getting any additional follow-through. In fact, rate hike expectations have actually FALLEN since the speech. Earlier today, Fed Funds futures were pricing in a 57% chance of a December rate hike. That number is down to 55% so Yellen did not move the needle. Biotech (IBB) also ripped off morning lows and is up 1.5%. The VIX is down 8.4%. Meanwhile, SPX fell about 5 points before extending higher above 2187. We’ve gone 34 days without a 1% move in the SPX. That streak may indeed break today. Next step: let’s see if these counter-reactions hold. Fed says often see multiple dramatic moves before the closing bell hits.
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: Why the VIX Could Collapse, and 4 Other Thoughts on Today’s Market Action
5) Tesla Destroys Options Traders Yesterday, I opined that Tesla (TSLA) options were probably not as cheap as they looked. It turns out they were way oveprriced. As of yesterday morning, they were pricing in a $12.84 move. Tesla is down only $1.30, which is absolutely murdering holders of puts and calls. Weekly at-the-money $225 calls are down -67% while the $225 puts are down -55%. Meanwhile, sellers of the weekly $225 straddle are up an amazing 61% in one day — I wish I was in that crowd! 4) Watch Dem Bios! For the past 2 days, the SPX has looked pretty sleepy. However, relative strength in biotech (IBB,XBI) and the Russell 2000 implied more bullishness under the surface. Today, both IBB and XBI are in the red, but making little moves off the lows, even with sector heavyweight Biogen Idec (BIIB) sinking another -1.7% as takeover rumors extinguish themselves. If I was a bear, I would most definitely not want to see biotech turn green and lead again, especially since the Russell is outperforming SPX by about 30 bps. 3) Sentiment Update Sentiment is still getting more bearish. The CBOE Equity Put/Call is at 0.94 this morning, which is right in-line with the YTD average, but well off the early July lows. However, the ISE Sentiment Index is at 66 this morning (66 calls for every 100 puts). That’s a of aggressive hedging in the early going. Plus, the AAII survey shows 29.8% bulls — well below the long-term 38.6% average. Overall, it looks like traders are looking a little more skittish ahead of a pivotal NFP report tomorrow. 2) Oil Crude oil is still hugging the $40-handle pretty tightly. I’m still a bit puzzled as to how well both equities and high-yield are ignoring oil’s 20%+ drop off the highs. Take a look at this chart of crude oil vs. HYG year-to-date: Energy stocks have been slipping, but overall, the market’s basically yawning at oil weakness. Maybe folks are just rotating into metals? GLD is up 28% YTD while SLV is up 46%. Meanwhile, the miners (GDX) are up 127%! 1) Why the VIX Could Collapse Lots of traders are out saying the VIX is low, but I believe it could drop to the 10-11 range. Remember what the VIX is — a representation of volatility expectations, as measured by 30-day SPX options. With the recent lack of movement, 20-day realized SPX volatility has collapsed to 5.4. So the 12.6 VIX is actually trading at a massive premium to actual market volatility. This means it’s already pricing in an expansion in volatility. If the market continues to go flat (which I expect for the next month) — or if it climbs slowly — the VIX could easily drop below 11 as traders reprice options to reflect persistently low actual market volatility. Now with a wild move, all bets are off (we do have NFP tomorrow) — buyers of puts or call could make a lot of money. But if the markets go flat as I expect, folks buying what look like “cheap” options will find out that they overpaid. P.S. If you’re into this fancy options stuff, check out today’s FREE webinar with my buddy Doug Robertson.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: The Sideways Shuffle
By T3 Live Staff Come join us in a FREE webinar! Click here for the upcoming schedule. 1) The Sideways Shuffle Today we saw what many traders have been looking for; an up day in Oil. This is the first time in the last 7 sessions that Oil was able to close bullish. The S&P 500 was sideways, once again, but able to close near the top of the range, up 0.18%. It is closing in on a month since the last time the S&P has produced a 1% move or better. The Nasdaq outperformed, again, on heels of strong earnings from GOOGL and AMZN. Gold found its way to the top of the advancers’ column today, with GLD rising 1.05%. 2) Range Precedes Price Today, Jeff Cooper provided some insight into the action on DexCom (DXCM): Our old friend DXCM continues its runaway move. Note the Spike Volume Bottom in Feb that defined the washout when everyone who wanted out got out. The large range breakout on 7/19 on increasing volume saw DXCM reclaim 50 % of this years range. From that point, DXCM has been in runaway mode. Typically runaway moves don’t offer much in the way of daily pullbacks so using an Opening Range Breakout is a good strategy. Also buying on the first intraday pullback offers defined risk entry. Today for example DXCM gapped open, pulled back into the gap window and exploded higher. 3) In Weakness, Opportunity is Found Our friend, Kurt Capra provided an interesting take on yesterday’s bearish candle on Facebook (FB): So, Facebook (FB) reported earnings after the close on Wednesday leading to a gap up Thursday morning to new all-time highs. After dancing around the first 2 hours of the day, FB began to pullback into the gap. It proceeded all the way down, finally finding support at $124.00, leaving the daily chart with a large red candle. To most, that would be seen as bearish. But, if you look beyond face value, it is an opportunity to get long for a ride back to, and through all time highs. Why would this be case? Take a look at the hourly chart from today and you’ll see a pullback and double bottom. So, the red bar from Thursday was nothing more than a controlled pullback to support and the whole number ($124); nothing to be scared of. In fact, quite the opposite. To the trained eye, this is an opportunity to get long, from a great spot, and enjoy a ride back to, and through, all time highs. If fact, if you go back and look at the daily chart of FB, notice how many times red bars were negated within the next day or two? This is a powerful concept that combines multiple timeframes with pattern recognition; something all traders should intimately understand. P.S.- If a double bottom fails, it can be an even bigger opportunity…even in failure, there is opportunity!!
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