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Inside the Redler All-Access IPO Corner: Uber and Beyond!
2019 is turning out to be a BIG year for IPO’s. Pinterest (PINS), Zoom (ZM) and Lyft (LYFT) were big names of interest in April. Since then, Uber (UBER) and Beyond Meat (BYND) joined the club. In fact, the Redler All-Access Morning Note now has an IPO corner. Here’s what I wrote today before the market open: LYFT showed some rare relative strength but it’s still very broken. The recent low is $47. It reclaimed $50 yesterday. It needs to hold $49. There is some room towards $52-$54 but that’s heavy resistance.PD has trended higher. $42 was our listed pattern price. It’s done very well, hitting a high of $54.57. Now it’s a bit extended. The 8 day is $49.ZM needs to hold $70 to keep upper momentum.PINS is choppy but the pattern is building. Now see if $27.02 holds to keep things constructive.UBER showed some strength yesterday as it closed near the highs. I bought some. My stop is in the $38 area. Hopefully it can get another day up and clear $40 for a push towards $41.BYND remains very strong as it cleared $72 to make a high of $80.75 yesterday. See if it can hold $76 to keep momentum. UBER had a rough first 2 days after coming public. But yesterday, it was strong and I got long before the close. Turns out good news hit right after the bell rung:Here’s the UBER chart I made just before noon today, where you can see the follow-through:UBER filled the gap and hit $41.69 today for a nice one-day gain. This was a nice little cash flow trade. Moves like this won’t make you rich but short-term 5% winners do add up. Now I’m looking for another setup in UBER, which I’ll be sharing in Redler All-Access. Let’s talk about BYND now, which was trickier. I said it needed to hold $76. It broke that level this morning, but look at how fast it came back to shoot up to $92:That’s a sign you need to pay attention. The key here is that BYND broke above that nice bull flag to take out $80.75, then the post-IPO high of $85, before finally reaching $92. So you probably know why we’re following the IPO names so closely in Redler All-Access (click that link to follow along) — they often set up great patterns for nice intraday cash flow trades and swings.Positions Disclosure: As of May 15, 2019 at 1:11 p.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long SPY, TWTR, QQQ, AMRN calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: What Is a “Special” Stock?
FYI – I discussed the broader market action with CNBC yesterday. Click here to read the article. ****** If you follow me, then you probably know I have my own trading language. It’s easy to understand once you get the hang of it, but I sometimes get questions about on particular term I use: ‘special’ As in, there are special stocks and not-so-special stocks. So what is a special stock? To me, a special stock is trending above the 8 & 21 day moving average (or an earnings gap) and showing relative strength vs. its sector and the market. These are the names I want as swing longs. I typically start them as Tier 1 positions (which is essentially a foothold), so I can add when these names break to near-term or all-time highs. (I discuss the Tier System in the Path to Profits program) This is a daily chart of Diebold (DBD), one of my picks from the 2019 Market Outlook Report:As you can see, it held the 8, 21, and 50 day to start the year. Then it gapped up big on earnings and reclaimed the 200 day moving average. Then it held the gap and didn’t fill it at all. This is ‘special’ behavior because it held the moving average, then held post-earnings highs with no trouble whatsoever. So what does a ‘not-so-special’ stock look like? Well, Lyft (LYFT) is a good example. It hasn’t been able to hold a high, and it’s below its brand-new 8 & 21 day moving averages.And Apple (AAPL) recently lost special status when it couldn’t hold its post-earnings gap.Want to learn more about my system? Check out Path to Profits.Positions Disclosure: As of May 8, 2019 at 10:49 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long TWTR, PSN, BABA, TWTR calls, AMRN calls, BRKB calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Twitter Knocks It Out of the Park
Twitter (TWTR) crushed its earnings report this morning and surged big-time. Let’s wind the clock back and see how it played out. In Monday’s Redler All-Access Morning Note, I said this: “TWTR reports tomorrow morning. It’s hard to tell if this lower-level channel can resolve higher. I bought $36 calls in case it makes a big move. I’ll also see if it’s buyable after the report tomorrow, but it needs to hold $35.50-$36 on big volume to get some momentum back.” I also sent this chart on my private Twitter feed (for subscribers only):Good thing I had those calls… because it did make a big move! Twitter gapped up big today, as you can see:I sold my stock premarket, and then trimmed some calls as the stock rallied higher and higher. Here’s a chart showing the action in those April 26 $36 calls:Wow! Obviously, not all trades work out like this, but it feels great when they do! I typically look to hit singles and doubles when I’m trading, but sometimes, you make contact just right and things work out better than you think. Plus, as Redler All-Access members know, I’ve been in Facebook (FB) stock and calls too, and Twitter’s giving those a boost.Positions Disclosure: As of April 23, 2019 at 1:20 p.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long ACB, TIGR, BAC, ZYNE, NFLX, FB, BAC calls, AMRN calls, BIDU calls, FB calls, TWTR calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Pinterest, Zoom, Lyft, and What’s Next
On Thursday, I appeared on the TD Ameritrade Network with my friend Nicole Petallides to discuss the big Pinterest (PINS) and Zoom (ZM) IPO’s. (click the play button to watch)We’re going to talk about what happened on Thursday. But before we get into that, I want to lay out the main principle from my ‘Art of the First Day’ IPO strategy. When it comes to judging new issues, I don’t focus on valuations or fundamentals. Instead, I look at supply and demand. The market action — especially the initial pivot highs — will tell you which IPO’s are hot, and which ones aren’t. Lyft (LYFT) failed early because there were too many shares up for sale. It quickly lost its initial lows and fell apart:Now let’s look at a recent IPO that had more demand than supply. Jumia (JMIA) is a perfect example of too many buyers not chasing enough shares. This is what F.O.M.O. looks like:Zoom priced its deal at $36. And in 1999-style, it opened at $65 and put in a high at $66. This may be a case of too much, too fast. The low was $60.32, and it closed at $62.Here’s how I’m looking at ZM now: it already made a massive move and there’s a lot of room between here and the $36 IPO price. Right now, I want to stay flat. If it breaks $60, the lucky longs could get nervous and start cashing in. And shorts might step up too. If it can hold for a few days, I might buy on a close above $66. Now let’s talk about Pinterest. Pinterest priced at $19. The stock then opened at $23.75. It hit a high of $25.18, a low of $23.05, and it closed at $24.54.Now it needs to hold that $23.05 low. If that breaks, I’ll have to reconsider my long. If it can get above $25.18, perhaps there’s a multi-day run. Positions Disclosure: As of April 22, 2019 at 9:07 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long ACB, BAC, ZYNE, AAPL, PINS, TWTR calls, AMRN calls
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