Tag Archives for " SPX "
Morning Call Express: Taper Talk
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler reviews the Gold Miners (GDX) as that is where the action was yesterday. He also takes a quick look at the SPX but not much has changed from day to day. Scott also looks at a couple individual names.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Taxing Times
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about yesterday’s action and, once again, reviews the SPX and some of the scenarios that he is looking for as we start the final quarter of the year. He also talks about some of the action in individual names like TSLA, NFLX, AAPL, and some new issue names.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Morning Call Express: Fourth Quarter, Fresh Start
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the tightening range in the SPX and what levels to be watching as we head into a new month and fourth quarter. He also looks at the XLE in light of OPEC as well as individual names like AMZN, FB and some new issues.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Beta Time!
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler looks at the SPX and how yesterday’s action plays into his overall plan. With the AAPL event today, he also looks at the chart of AAPL and provides some techincal levels to keep an eye on for trading. He also looks at some high beta tech names as well that remain on his radar.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Back From The Beach
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the key levels on the SPX for both support and resistance. He also looked at the charts of USO, AAPL, BABA, TWLO, as well as others.
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: We Won’t Get Fooled Again?
Get a Quant Edge in Today’s Markets Today after the close, Rob Smith is hosting a FREE webinar on his unique Quant Edge Trading Strategy. Read all about it ********************************************************************* The bears had a great day yesterday. SPX only fell -0.5%, but with Hillary Clinton’s help, they sent biotech from first to worst in a matter of hours, and some key momo stocks like Twilio (TWLO) and Acacia (ACIA) took beatings. Oil also fell on a very bearish inventory report and the VIX got a little pop. Overnight, German business sentiment missed expectations, while Spain reported above-consensus GDP. And Bloomberg is reporting that Chinese authorities may act to cool off Shanghai’s surging property market, including restrictions on mortgages and development loans. This morning, we’re seeing some minor downside follow-through with SPX futures down 5 handles and crude oil off 30 cents. We’ve got a big chunk of economic data coming today with jobless claims, durable goods, Markit PMI, and the Kansas City Fed on tap. However, the big story is still FOMC Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole tomorrow. Traders have been ratcheting up rate hike expectations, and Fed Funds futures now imply a 54% chance of a December rate hike, up from 47% a couple weeks ago. That’s been putting pressure on gold and US Treasuries. I won’t hazard a guess as to what she’ll say because trying to game the Fed has been extremely hard this year. Everyone was geared up for a big hawk move in June and Yellen came out dovish. In fact, now that I think about it, there are two major parallels with June. We’re heading into a Fed event where everyone is expecting a big hawkish twist. Funny, just as I wrote this, Kansas City Fed President Esther George (FOMC voting member) came out swinging the hawk hammer, saying the “time is right” for a rate hike and that gains in inflation give the Fed room to remove some accomodation. And we’re heading into an OPEC event where a lot of traders expect a production freeze or cut. In June, the Fed and OPEC disappointed the masses. Are we about to get fooled again? I’m not going to make any predictions since I’m not rolling the dice on Yellen’s speech. Just keep in mind that Mr. Market’s primary mission is to fool as many traders as possible at all times.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Don’t Fall Asleep At The Wheel
Don’t Fear Forex… Attend my buddy Kurt Capra free webinar tomorrow and learn why so many stock and options traders are embracing the lucrative world of forex. In today’s Morning Call Express, Soctt Redler talks about the current trend of the SPX and the key levels to be watching for technical support. He also looks at various sectors like the Nasdaq Biotech. (IBB) as well as key, high beta tech names like AMZN, FB, and others. Scott also notes that banks and gold could be key sectors to watch going into this week.
Continue Reading -->I Won’t Argue With the Results.. and 4 Other Thoughts on Today’s Action
Want to Start Earning Bigger, More Consistent Profits? Dave Green can show you how! 1) More Lousy Data Post-Brexit, one pleasant surprise we’ve seen has been a pretty nice streak of positive economic data surprises. But starting with the 7/29 GDP report, we’ve seen quite a few lousy reports, culminating in today’s Empire Manufacturing miss. Individual economic data points are little more than noise. The trend is far more important. Look at this chart of the Citi US Economic Surprise Index — it is definitely sliding. For now, the weak data is being ignored. But I wonder if that changes with the avalanche of big reports coming over the next 2 days (Housing Starts, Building Permits, CPI, Industrial Production, etc.). 2) Can’t Argue With the Results Crude oil got shaken up by this morning’s Interfax report that OPEC will not pursue an output cut at the September meeting. However, oil prices surged right back and oil stocks are outperforming the major indices. It’s probably best if traders do not expect an output cut. Last time around at the 6/2 OPEC meeting, traders came in expecting a cut and didn’t get it, and that was right near the interim top in oil. 3) Mr. Russell One common complaint the bears are throwing around is that the Russell 2000 has not confirmed the all-time highs in SPX/DJIA/NASDAQ/NDX. It would be nice if the Russell could make new all-time highs, but there’s no so such thing as a perfect bull move. Besides, the Russell is rapidly making up the difference and outperforming SPX today by a more than 2:1 ratio. 4) Bio-POWER! Biotech is back on the warpath and making its way toward IBB’s $299.49 high on 8/4. Round numbers are meaningless but I bet traders would be excited to see it make a clean move about $300. And better yet — XBI, which is more representative of the broader spectrum of biotech stock — is outperforming IBB by a big margin today. IBB makes bigger headlines, but XBI is actually more important. 5) Headline of the Day S&P 500 Dregs Stage Uprising in Bull Market That Now Makes Sense There’s something odd about declaring that the market “now makes sense” after a series of record highs, and adding that “there’s a lot to like in a market as hated as this one.” This article “feels” like the type of thing you would read towards the end of a frustrating rally — not the middle of one. That said, the bulls are putting on a good show today and again, I don’t argue with the results, even when they hurt me.
Continue Reading -->Why the VIX Could Explode
Attention! On Thursday afternoon, T3 Live’s Dave Green is hosting a FREE trading webinar. Click here to learn how Dave crushes the market! I’ve been vocal about my expectation that the VIX could go under 11, and it’s now at 11.08 — just about there. After further analysis, I’m starting to suspect that it will explode. The VIX has dipped below 12 during 10 of the last 16 trading days. This is very reminicent of what we saw in July-August 2015. Between 7/15/2015 and 8/5/2015, the VIX was sub-12 on 7 of 15 trading days — a similiar low-volatility streak. That led to the 8/24/2015 mini-crash, which saw the VIX trade as high as 53.29 intraday before closing at 28. We can also go back to August-September 2014. Then, we saw the VIX go sub-12 for 15 of 25 trading days. It then broke 30 that October. So the pattern seems to be a few weeks of nothing followed by a small grind up in the VIX, and then a VIX-plosion. However, if we go back to June-July 2014, we see a very long pattern of nothing — 39 of 45 days with a sub-12 VIX. If the pattern holds (we are dealing with tiny sample sizes here so this isn’t even close to scientific), the VIX could easily be over 30 within a couple months. The only problem is, that spike could happen next week… or in 2 months. That said, I’m dipping a toe in the water to speculate on a VIX-plosion. SPX just hit a new record high at 2186.65, and I am now long VIX October 20 calls from $1.45. Downside risk is 100% if the VIX goes flat or only rises modestly, but I suspect the VIX will be over 30 within 2 months. The reason I’m putting it on now is that it feels like the absolute hardest trade, which sometimes mean it’s the best trade. Click here to check out Dave Green’s webinar this Thursday!
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Trying To Keep Constructive
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the move by the BOE to cut rates and increase the stimulus and how the Equity Markets are responding. He also notes that the jobs report tomorrow will be very important to the future direction of the market. Scott also looks at names like JP Morgan (JPM), Apple (AAPL), and others.
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