Tag Archives for " stock market "
4 Names to Watch for Next Week
In the video below we highlight 4 names that have shown relative strength to the market this week and are in a prime position to see additional follow through in the coming days/weeks.
Continue Reading -->US Dollar Update: Nailed It…Again…
In this video update we revisit the US Dollar Index (UUP) as it has been under heavy pressure. Just recently it tested the key $24 level which was the 2016 low and a level we said would get tested based on a simple and objective method. In this video you will: Hear the analysis that got us to this point See how you could have made money off the bottom Find out where this is headed next
Continue Reading -->The Red Dog’s Roadmap
The SPX futures are up 2 ahead of the Fed this afternoon. It has been a methodical move since clearing the descending channel above 2430 to take out 2453 before making a new all-time high at 2481. Now we’ll look to see if the active bulls stay in control with upper support at 2464 and yesterday’s low at 2474. IWM gave another calculated entry Monday after it reclaimed $142.25 and cleared $143.55 to hit a hgih of $144.25. It will need to hold $143.21 to keep active bulls happy and, if it can, extend another day towards a target of $145. XLE is trying to stay relevant as some are long vs the $64.50 stop while others want to see if hold the 50day of $65.86. IBB has its first bearish engulfing candle in a while and I did tweet that I sold around $329.50. After this move from $310, some digestion makes sense. Look for banks to be in play on fed day as JPM had a nice 2 day move. If it is able to hold the $92 area, I will be looking for it to make a move towards all-time highs in the days ahead.
Continue Reading -->Dynamic vs. Static Risk Management for Swing Trading
Are you one of the many swing traders that takes the same level of risk notwithstanding the market conditions? Do you always trade “a thousand” shares just because that’s an easy number to remember? Do you have a hard time picking the best stocks for swing trading? I will discuss some finer points that might help you to become better at managing risk. First and foremost, the T3 Trained Trader (T3TT) should have a Trading Plan outlining his/her money management rules. Here you should establish parameters such as a “maximum loss per week-month”. When establishing a maximum loss per trade (because no one can know which trade is going to work out), the T3TT has to decide whether he wants to follow a more “static” approach where all the potential losses will be similar, or whether to adopt a more “dynamic” set of guidelines created with the purpose of governing when to be more aggressive, less aggressive, or not active at all. You have to understand the fact that not all market conditions present the same odds for a particular trade. Let’s say, for example, that market “x” is in an up-trend, and has pulled back to support over several days. Today we get a reversal bar, and then the reversal is complete. In this case, the swing trader will likely find several high odds entries both today and tomorrow (depending on the tactics used, many of which are taught in our T3 Technical Strategies Course. The third day comes along, the market continues to climb, and some more entries might be executed. As the market continues to rally, the odds of every new entry following through will diminish, as the probability of a reversal to the downside in market “x” is greater. Based on this scenario, a swing trader might enter into larger positions on days one and two, and might reduce his share lots as the market continues to climb. There will be a time when the market has climbed for 5 or 6 days in a row, and so the T3 Trader will devote more and more of his time to manage already open positions, by selling partial lots and raising stops, instead of being too active in entering new swing positions. (He might be more active in micro trading activities though) Using some modified version of this basic concept, the T3 Trader can implement an intelligent way to participate in the markets, while reducing the risks of getting caught with big positions on a reversal contrary to his positions. Trade Well!
Continue Reading -->Throwback Thursday: Two of Our Most Popular Articles
Meet the Traders! 8 Questions With Sami Abusaad 5 Reasons Forex Trading Might Be for YOU! Bonus Article: Trading: Trend Following vs. Counter-Trend
Continue Reading -->Happy New Year!
We have mixed/quiet markets around the world as we close out the year. Europe is flattish and has a very tight pattern. It looks ready to rally. We’ve been long EWG calls in RAA since the Italian Referendum, and EWG/FEZ look like they’ll give more gains. In Asia, the landscape is a little different. The Nikkei had a big run and needs to digest. The Hang Seng has been choppy to the downside, though it was up 1.0%. The Shanghai was up +0.4%, but it needs time to show its hand. SPX futures are up 4-5 handles. Yesterday, most sectors hit new weekly lows but rallied back a bit to close off the lows. We saw a few Red Dog Reversals as some sectors traded below Wednesday’s lows and reclaimed them Thursday by day’s end. I’m not sure what today brings. The action may depend on whether we have any leftover rebalancing to work through. At this point, there are multiple scenarios to consider for the New Year. We’ve seen a little give on the post-Trump Trade, but not much. The USD came in a bit and Treasuries rallied. Some strong sectors tested the 21 day and held. Do new funds come in the first five days and drive the indices to new highs fast? Do traders book gains to push taxes out to 2018? Do some January effect-type trades take place in beaten-down names and sectors? We will have scenario A, B, and C. Whatever you do today, don’t let it ruin your holiday. Just focus on starting 2017 on the wrong foot. There will be more than enough time to figure out new relationships, correlations, etc. as the first few days develop. For today, see if the upside gap holds or gets sold. SPX has 2242 as pivot support for today and to start the year. If this holds, it would bring in new money to lift stocks in January. If they hit stocks fast in January, the important level will be the prior breakout area at 2193-2210. If they buy them fast, the first level to clear and hold above is 2262ish with the high of the range at 2277. A close above this and the door to 2325 opens for the first quarter. SPY put a low in at $223.84 yesterday. That will be your pivot support for today and to start the year. If they hit them fast, this needs to get taken out with a close below the 21 day. Then perhaps it can see $220ish. For today, see if SPY holds yesterday’s high of $224.89. For the bulls to come out quick in January, they need a trade and hold above $226.30 as the first step. Then the high of the range is $228.34. A close above this in the first few days of the year and the door to $232.50 is open. I will have a very extensive note to start the year on Tuesday morning as a lot can change between now and that open. For today, keep it light and get ready for the holiday and get your head ready for 2017. Remember, your time frame matters. Have a long-term plan with a 401k/403b/IRA/529 because over the long run, the bull market wins. But to participate, you must have a process that works for you. Never invest and live above your means. If you swing trade and trade for a living that’s different. It takes a routine, time, and commitment to a process. Combine that with discipline and humility, and you can win. Most importantly, live life and enjoy the time you have with your family and friends. A little fitness doesn’t hurt either. Don’t sweat the small stuff as it ends up being meaningless when you’re faced with the big things. Thanks for being a part of my community. Having friends like you on my team gave me a mission instead of a job. Happy New Year!
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Fear Trumps Greed
In today’s Morning Call Express, Kurt Capra talks about the selloff yesterday and what may have been behind it. He also looks at the financials for clues as well as where GLD may be headed before truly reversing. Kurt also points out some of the retailers that may have additional downside today and points out an interesting pattern in AMZN.
Continue Reading -->Daily Recap: The Last Mile is the Hardest
In today’s Daily Recap, Scott Redler and special guest Lulu take a look at the action today which may have caught some by surprise. He also talks about how he navigated today in light of coming into today mostly long.
Continue Reading -->Chart Attack: SPX, FAS, AMZN and ACIA
Once again, quiet markets as we have 3 days left in 2016. This is a nice upper flag type pattern that usually leads to positive resolution. You can be long vs. 2256 or 2248 and, if you are quick, perhaps add above 2273 for a move to all-time highs at 2277. We’ll see if there is enough juice this week, or does it need new January 2017 flows to ignite it. Either way, a nice tight pattern to trade verse. Banks have been the best sector with multiple set ups along the way. Some are alread in the FAS vs. $41. If you think we get DOW 20,000 this can probably be a grab when it clears $42.25 for a move to clear highs of $42.83. Use Goldman Sachs (GS) as an indicator. AMZN has been consolidating since missing last quarters earnings. This pattern is tight. With the best selling holiday product and a huge online retail season electronically, I think this wedge resolves upwards. I am long and looking to add with a high volume move above $774.70 for a quick move towards $780 then to fill the gap up to $820. ACIA, last years high flyer, was cut in half. Two sell signals helped us get out of the way. Now, it’s tight and could see a January effect type move. It will need a high volume move above $68.30 to help trigger a day 1. I am long small and looking to add if it triggers and holds. The first target is $72 which is the 50 day.
Continue Reading -->Daily Recap: Lots of Divergences
In today’s daily recap, Scott Redler talks about the action in markets over this past week and how things are looking ahead of tomorrow’s Jobs report. He also discusses the various divergences that have been playing out over the recent week. In addition, Scott recaps the action in names like JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and others.
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