Tag Archives for " t3’s take 3 "
T3’s Take 3: Twitter Skyrockets on M&A Chatter, Facebook Not so Much
Trade Options Like a Pro… My buddy Doug Robertson is hosting a FREE options trading webinar next week. Doug’s going to be teaching his unique method for creating income with options, so I suggest you check it out. 1) Twitter Blasts Into Orbit This morning, CNBC reported that Twitter (TWTR) may be in talks to be taken over by Google (GOOGL) or Salesforce.com (CRM). While Twitter has been the source of regular takeover rumors for over a year, traders certainly seemed to believe the new chatter. Twitter shares rose an incredible 21.4% to $22.62 today, its best performance in over 2 years, while call options volume exploded. In fact, Twitter call options set a volume record today, surpassing their last record set on December 26, 2013 – when Twitter’s stock price hit an all-time high of $74.73. 2) Markets Take a Break US stocks took a breather today after 4 straight days of gains and a record high in the Nasdaq Composite yesterday. The S&P 500 fell -0.6% to 2164.69 as traders locked in gains. Large cap tech was weak, with Apple (AAPL) falling -1.7% to $112.71 after market research firm GFK said iPhone 7 sales could disappoint. Crude oil dropped -3.2% to $44.85 after Saudi Arabia dismissed reports of an output freeze or cut at next week’s OPEC meeting in Algiers. As a result, oil and energy services stocks led the decliners’ column. Biotechnology, industrials, and financials were also weak. 3) Facebook Suffers a PR Blow Shares of momentum favorite Facebook (FB) took a little dive today after apologizing for an error in its video measurement tools. Facebook mistakenly overstated the average time its users spent watching videos for the past 2 years. This news raises questions about the success of Facebook’s high-profile push into video, and is causing some frustration on the part of advertisers that make decisions based upon Facebook video metrics. However, Facebook said that its miscalculations did not impact customer billings or the number of video views, which should soften the blow to some extent. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Doug Robertson’s options event. Monday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 10:00 New Home Sales (Aug): exp. 600k, prior 654k 10:00 New Home Sales MoM (Aug): exp. -8.30%, prior 12.40% 10:30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (Sep): exp. -3, prior -6.2 11:45 Fed’s Tarullo Speaks on Next Steps in Bank Stress Testing 13:30 Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in San Antonio Moderated Q&A Global Economics 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate 05:30 CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks 10:00 EUR ECB Pres. Draghi Speaks 19:10 CAD BOC Gov. Poloz Speaks Earnings Before Open: Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) Carnival Corp (CCL) After Close: None of Significance
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Biotech Rocks on Deal Chatter
Try this hot market… Tons of stock and options traders are switching to this exciting, lucrative market. Click here to learn more 1) New iPhone Day! Apple (AAPL) held a new product launch event today, unveiling the iPhone 7 and 7 Plus smartphones, plus an updated Watch. The iPhone 7 line features water and dust protection, plus faster processors and enhanced camera features. In a somewhat controversial move, Apple also removed the headphone jack from the iPhone, paving the way for an all-new wireless audio interface. While Apple didn’t make any Earth-shattering announcements, iPhone fans seemed generally pleased with the new feature set, and Apple shares rose 0.6% to $108.36, outpacing the broader markets. 2) Biotech Rips on Deal Chatter Biotech was lackluster for most of the day, but slammed up into the close on takeover rumors. This afternoon, Reuters reported that hot biotech/marijuana play GW Pharma (GWPH) hired advisers after receiving takeover interest. GWPH closed up 23.6% to $104.03, and in turn, the Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) rose 0.7% to $286.10, making it one of the best-performing sector ETFs. Curiously, this morning, some very “lucky” trader bought 380 February $100 GWPH calls at $4.20: Those calls closed at $12.66. That’s what I call good timing… 3) YAWN! Traders are still falling asleep as the S&P 500 fell -0.01% to 2186.16, with the VIX falling back under 12. We haven’t had a 1% S&P move since July 8, and we haven’t had a 1% down day since June 27. On the plus side, we saw some very bullish action below the surface. Aside from the big biotech bounce, small caps were very strong, with the Russell 2000 rising 0.6%. Regional banks also bounced hard, and crude oil rose after the close on a very bullish inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute. Thursday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (9/3): exp. 265k, prior 263k 08:30 Continuing Claims (8/27): exp. 2151k, prior 2159k 08:45 Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9/4): prior 43.4 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (9/2): exp. 42, prior 51 10:30 EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (9/2): exp. 42, prior 51 11:00 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (9/2): exp. 905k, prior 2276k 11:00 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (9/2): exp. 100k, prior -1039k 11:00 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (9/2): exp. -750k, prior -691k 11:00 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (9/2): exp. 1150k, prior 1496k 11:00 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (9/2): exp. -0.40%, prior 0.30% 11:00 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (9/2): prior 17080 11:00 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (9/2): prior 10060.4 11:00 DOE Distillate Implied Demand (9/2): prior 4887.3 15:00 Consumer Credit (Jul): exp. $16.000b, prior $12.320b Global Economics 07:45 EUR Minimum Bid Rate 08:30 EUR ECB Press Conference 08:30 CAD Building Permits m/m 12:20 CAD Gov Council Member Lane Speaks 21:30 CNY CPI y/y 21:30 CNY PPI y/y Earnings Before Open: Barnes & Noble (BKS) Conn’s Inc (CONN) After Close: Finisar Corp (FNSR) Restoration Hardware (RH) Zumiez (ZUMZ)
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Gold Screams on NFP Miss
Join Next Week’s Training Sessions! They’re FREE! Tuesday 9/6: Day and Swing Trading Signals You Need to Know Thursday 9/8: How to Start Trading Forex Like a Pro ********* By Michael Comeau 1) NFP Miss Today we got the big bad August nonfarm payrolls report, and unfortunately, it disappointed. The 151K headline number missed expectations by 29K, and unemployment came in below consensus. And perhaps most importantly, average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month-over-month, missing the 0.2% consensus. The Fed doesn’t make decisions based on a single data point, but watch the trend: US economic data has been on a downtrend as of late, as you can see in this chart of the Citi US Economic Surprise Index: 2) Gold Rocks – But Has Anything Changed? Gold had been selling off since mid-August on an endless stream of hawkish comments from Fed officials. However, with today’s NFP miss, traders decided to once again buy what now looks like an oversold dip. Gold rose 0.9% to $1329/oz and the gold miners ETF (GDX) rallied an impressive 3.6%, putting it up 7.3% in 2 days. However, the rally in gold does not imply that traders believe the Fed will go on hold. The US dollar was remarkably strong today after an early dip, and US Treasury yields rose. The dollar and yields tend to go up when traders believe the Fed will raise rates. 3) Bulls Fight Back In recent days, tension clearly appeared on the tape, but today’s NFP miss wasn’t bad enough to derail the bull. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 2179.98, while the Russell 2000 rose an impressive 1.0%. And much to my chagrin, the VIX fell 11.4% to 11.95. Regional banks were strong again, and we also saw a nice intraday rally in large-cap tech names, with Apple (AAPL) pushing up 0.9% to $107.76. On the downside, biotech (IBB) fell on Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton’s drug pricing plan, which is aimed at curbing “unjustified” drug price hikes. P.S. Don’t forget to check out our FREE trader training sessions.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Bears Fail Ahead of Pivotal Jobs Report
1) Jobs in Focus The nonfarm payrolls report is always one of the biggest events of the month, and with traders thinking the Fed is about to raise rates, tomorrow’s August report is no exception. Today, the US dollar fell on profit-taking following weaker-than-expected Markit US Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, and Construction Spending numbers. But it’s been had a nice bounce since the Fed hawks came out in force to prepare the market for additional rate hikes. So presumably, traders are gearing up for a repeat of the big July jobs report, which was an impressive across-the-board beat. 2) The Bears Fail in Spectacular Fashion. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 2157.09 in early trading and the VIX popped 8.9% to 14.61. That had a lot of folks — myself included — thinking the S&P would have its first 1% down day since June 27. However, that small dip was quickly bought and the index climbed up to finish flat on the day. Biotechnology overcame an early deficit to turn green, and we also saw rebounds in large cap tech and transports. Regional banks led the decliners column, and energy was weak due to another drop in oil prices. 3) Jeff Cooper on Twitter Twitter (TWTR) has been one of the hottest stocks in the market, and today, Jeff Cooper stepped in to break down the action: TWTR continues be on the prowl into the weekend on great expectations of something going on. This morning it Pinocchioed the 20 strike which perpetuated some selling and a pullback to yesterday’s highs coincident with the 20 period on the 10 min as anticipated in yesterday’s note. Note how this morning’s spike occurred out of an hourly bull flag following yesterday’s surge. Friday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Trade Balance (Jul): exp. -$41.4b, prior -$44.5b 08:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug): exp. 180k, prior 255k 08:30 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (Aug): prior 18k 08:30 Change in Private Payrolls (Aug): exp. 180k ,prior 217k 08:30 Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Aug): exp. -3k, prior 9k 08:30 Unemployment Rate (Aug): exp. 4.80%, prior 4.90% 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Aug): exp. 0.20%, prior 0.30% 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Aug): exp. 2.50%, prior 2.60% 08:30 Average Weekly Hours All Employees (Aug): exp. 34.5, prior 34.5 08:30 Change in Household Employment (Aug): prior 420 08:30 Labor Force Participation Rate (Aug): prior 62.80% 08:30 Underemployment Rate (Aug): prior 9.70% 09:45 ISM New York (Aug): prior 60.7 10:00 Factory Orders (Jul): exp. 2.00%, prior -1.50% 10:00 Factory Orders Ex Trans (Jul): prior 0.40% 10:00 Durable Goods Orders (Jul F): exp. 4.40%, prior 4.40% 10:00 Durables Ex Transportation (Jul F): exp. 1.50%, prior 1.50% 10:00 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (Jul F): prior 1.60% 10:00 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (Jul F): prior -0.40% 13:00 Fed’s Lacker Speaks on Interest Rate Benchmarks in Richmond 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (9/2): prior 489 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs (9/2): prior 81 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs (9/2): prior 406 Global Economics 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 04:30 GBP Construction PMI 08:30 CAD Trade Balance Earnings Before Open: None of Significance After Close: None of Significance
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: The Fed Hits and Nothing Changes
1) Fed Schmed… Today, the Fed released the Minutes from its July meeting. Traders were pricing in a 51% chance of a December rate hike, which meant expectations were split right down the middle. Unfortunately, we did not get much on the Fed’s near-term trajectory. Some FOMC officials are waiting for signs of improved inflation trends. Others were more optimistic, saying that the labor market is approaching maximum employment, and that progress in reaching the Fed’s inflation goals is expected continue. But overall, the Fed leaned dovish, which sent the dollar lower, and commodities higher. 2) The Grind Continues Following lackluster action overseas, US markets were weak in early trading, and the S&P 500 looked like it may even put in its first down day since July 27. But after dipping to 2168.50, the index ran up in a straight line, aside from a tiny dip following the release of the FOMC Minutes. By day’s end, the S&P managed to squeeze into the green with a 0.2% gain. Utilities led the winners’ column on the Fed’s dovishness, while small caps showed relative weakness. And much to my chagrin, the VIX hit an early high at 13.71, but collapsed to 12.17 as stocks climbed off the lows. 3) Crude Oil Keeps on Chugging Oil prices rallied again today after a bullish inventory report from the Energy Information Administration. Economists expected a 950,000 increase in inventories, but they fell a whopping -2.5 million. Gasoline inventories also fell significantly. Oil was also boosted by the weak dollar, and ongoing hopes an OPEC production freeze or cut. As a result, energy stocks outperformed today. Thursday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (8/13): exp. 265k, prior 266k 08:30 Continuing Claims (8/6): exp. 2141k, prior 2155k 08:30 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Aug): exp. 2, prior -2.9 09:45 Bloomberg Economic Expectations (Aug): prior 44.5 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (8/14): prior 41.8 10:00 Fed’s Dudley Answers Questions at Press Briefing in New York 10:00 Leading Index (Jul): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.30% 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (8/12): exp. 26, prior 29 10:30 EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (8/12): exp. 26, prior 29 16:00 Federal Reserve President John Williams Speaks in Anchorage 20:00 Fed’s Kaplan to Speak in Dallas Global Economics 04:30 GBP Retail Sales m/m 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases Earnings Before Open: Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ) Wal Mart Stores (WMT) After Close: Gap Inc (GPS) Ross Stores (ROSS)
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