Welcome to Nvidia Week! What’s on Tap May 22-26

Retailers like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Foot Locker (FL) warning about the outlook for consumer spending
A huge tech stock rally led by momentum names like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD)
Elon Musk scoring major wins on Tesla's (TSLA) Investor Day and his interview with CNBC's David Faber

Here's a look at the four horseman ETFs:

(data as of 3 p.m. Friday)

Year-to-date, the QQQ's are still crushing the other big ETFs thanks to giant rallies in names like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOGL).

Now let's look forward to next week.

US Economic Data

We have some important US economic data reports on tap including:

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Manufacturing & Services PMI's
Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday: GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales
Friday: Durable Goods Orders, Core PCE Price Index

The biggie this week is that Core PCE Price Index because the Fed watches it closely as an inflation barometer.

As of Friday afternoon, traders were pricing in a 17.4% probability of a June rate hike, up from 10.7% two weeks ago thanks to recent economic reports showing some inflationary pressure.

And overseas, we get:

Monday: Japan Services PMI, Brazil Focus Market Readout
Tuesday: France/Germany/England PMI's, New Zealand Rate Decision
Wednesday: England CPI & PPI, ECB Policy Meeting, South Africa CPI, Germany Business Expectations
Thursday: Germany GDP, South Africa Rate Decision, Japan CPI, Australia Retail Sales
Friday: England Retail Sales, Switzerland Employment

Nvidia Earnings Time!

Earnings season is coming to a close, but we have some important reports next week, topped by chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA).

Monday: Zoom (ZM), Nordstrom (JWN)
Tuesday: Intuit (INTU), Lowe's (LOW), Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
Wednesday: Nvidia (NVDA), Analog Devices (ADI), Snowflake (SNOW)
Thursday: Costco (COST), Medtronic (MDT), Netease (NTES), Workday (WDAY), Autodesk
Friday: VMWare (VMW), Buckle (BKE)

Yes, we'll hear a lot about the consumer from Costco (COST) and Lowe's (LWO), but we all want to know about Nvidia.

Here's a few fun facts of which you may not be aware:

Semiconductors is the #1 sector of 2023 with a 31%+ gain for the SMH ETF
Nvidia is the #1 performer in the SMH ETF this year with a 114% gain
Nvidia is the #1 performer in the S&P 500 Index
Nvidia is the #1 performer in the Nasdaq 100 Index

So everyone wants to see if this mega stock can keep the momentum up.

As far as we're concerned, THIS is the event of earnings season. Sorry Apple...

By the way, if you want to trade Nvidia before or after the report, check out the Inner Circle VTF® - our team is very active with Nvidia and its rival AMD (AMD).

Earning Season... Not Good But Not a Disaster Either

As we noted last week, earnings season is pretty strong relative to expectations.

According to FactSet, 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and so far:

78% of companies beat EPS estimates
76% of companies have beaten revenue estimates.
Earnings have declined by -2.2% vs. expectations for a -6.7% decline

So earnings are lousy but better-than-expected.

Which is why the market's been up this year.

Traders Are in a Rotten Mood Despite the Market's Resilience

Investors and traders remain remarkably bearish despite the market's stability.

According to AAII, just 22.9% of investors are bullish.

AAII says "Optimism reverted to an unusually low level and is at a seven-week low. Bullish sentiment is unusually low for the 51st time out of the past 72 weeks."

So even with tech stocks blasting higher and a better-than-expected earnings season, traders are still in a bad mood.

The debt ceiling standoff, concerns over the Fed, and the regional banking mess are still weighing on traders' and investors' minds.

Tech Leads the Way, All the Way

It's the same old story.

Tech is crushing everything in 2023, and housing stocks are posting big gains, looking past what looks like the most obvious slowdown in history.

Meanwhile, energy and financials are drags.

Factoid of the Week: Carvana Is a Monster

Looking for the short squeeze of the year?

Look no further than Carvana (CVNA) -- supposed victim of the soft used car market:

Carvana has the highest short interest of any stock with a $500 million+ market cap... and it's up 144.5% this year.

Other big short squeeze: C3.ai (AI), and Bitcoin plays Mara (MARA), and Microstrategy (MSTR).

Get to Know Scott Redler

Learn more about our Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler: