All posts by Michael Comeau
10 Things You Need to Know – Goodbye Rate Cuts Edition!
What a week! We just saw: Markets end Q2 on a positive note, showing no fear of the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline A better-than-expected jobs report The US move closer to approving President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill A US-Vietnam trade deal Canada make a major concession to Trump with its immigration bill A sudden increase in bullishness among investors And a whole lot more. So let’s go over the 10 Things You Absolutely Need to Know Right Now – GOODBYE RATE CUTS EDITION. 1. Rate Cut Odds Slip Following Friday’s strong nonfarm payrolls report, which featured a lower-than-expected wage growth number, traders took a July rate cut off the table. The CME’s FedWatch tool implies a 6.7% chance of a July rate cut, down from 23.8% yesterday. September odds are starting to slip as well. The market is pricing in a 67.4% chance of a rate cut by September, down from 71.9% yesterday, and from 74.3% last week. So let’s ask a big question: 2. Why Is President Trump Attacking Jerome Powell? President Trump keeps tossing verbal bombs at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and you might be wondering why. It’s a simple game. Assume we don’t get rate cuts, and the economy and financial markets crash. Trump assigns Powell the blame. If we do get rate cuts, the odds favor ongoing strength — even with a recession. According to Hartford Funds Research, cited by Bankrate The Hartford team reviewed 22 occasions from 1929 to 2019 when the Fed first cut rates and how stocks, bonds and cash performed over the subsequent 12 months. The after-inflation return of stocks averaged 11 percent, but returns diverged when the cut was associated with a recession. When the rate cut occurred and no recession took place, stocks averaged returns of 17 percent in the following year. But even when a recession took place, stocks were still 8 percent higher. 3. Traders Finally Turn Bullish… at an Inconvenient Time? The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.0% of investors are bullish. This is well off the 19.1% lows from earlier this year. And it’s the first above-average bullish reading since January 30, 2025. Right into the July 9 Trade Deadline. Is that a bad thing? We’ll see. Interestingly enough… 4. Q2 Earnings Expectations Are Weird Factset says that 110 S&P 500 companies issued guidance for the second quarter, with 59 of them being positive. This is actually well above the 5 and 10-year averages. So guidance was strong in the face of big fears over trade and the economy. Meanwhile, earnings expectations are low. Which is GREAT news. Analysts predict 5.0% Q2 earnings growth – the lowest since Q4 2023. This is down from 9.4% on March 31. And why is this great news? Because there is plenty of room for companies to beat. Which is exactly what happened in Q1. Earnings grew 13.6% in Q1, which blew away estimates. 5. The Ultimate Trump Trade Rages On We’ve talked a lot about the huge gains in brokerage stocks that benefit from increased trading volumes. They are BOOMING this year: Robinhood (HOOD): +150% Coinbase (COIN) +43% Interactive Brokers (IBKR): +31% Webull (BULL) +22% $SPY is up just 7%. Why is this industry doing so well? Because the environment is perfect. Markets are volatile but trending higher, and President Trump ensures heavy news flow. All good for trading volumes – and these stocks. But what’s not good for these stocks? Next week’s calendar: 6. Snoozefest? What a sad, pathetic little calendar we have for next week: Yes, we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes and a couple of bond auctions. Maybe the big July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline will drive some action, but even that could be resolved soon. 7) Can We Talk About Bitcoin $200,000? Bitcoin is getting lots of attention because it’s flirting with key resistance around $110,000. So let’s ask a crazy question. Is Bitcoin headed to $200,000? JR Romero has an idea: 8. Small Caps Get a Start So far this month, IWM is beating SPY: 3 days of action do not make a trend. But it’s worth watching because SPY has more than doubled IWM’s performance over the last 10 years. That has to flip eventually. Right? Put it on the radar. 9) It’s Time to Write Your Trading Plan A trading plan can’t guarantee success. But a lack of planning guarantees your failure. So let Sami Abusaad take you through the process of writing a plan that sets you up for long-term success: 10) Happy Fourth of July! Don’t take the freedoms we have for granted. And watch the single best scene from Saving Private Ryan:
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Queen Cathie Wood Edition!
What a week! Here’s what happened: President Trump cyber-bullied Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding faster rate cuts The US and China signed a trade deal allowing rare earth exports from China and an easing of US tech restrictions The S&P and Nasdaq slammed the bulls with a move to all-time highs Inflation showed continued signs of easing The US dollar dumped Uranium soared as nuclear power comes back en vogue Gold dropped like a rock, and yes, it is a rock Cathie Wood’s ARKK ETF showed continued dominance And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now – Queen Cathie Wood Edition: 1. Tech Led Us to Record Highs The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time highs this week as tech stocks took center stage. 35 S&P names, including NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Broadcom (AVGO), Oracle (ORCL), and Netflix Inc. (NFLX), and Palantir (PLTR), hit record highs. As of Friday afternoon, QQQ was up 7.7% on the year: And if we have to crown a Queen… it’s Cathie Wood: 2. ARKK Is Dominating! Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is up nearly 24% this year, crushing the major indices: ARKK has made a stunning comeback off the April lows thanks to hefty positions in winners like: Coinbase (COIN) Tesla (TSLA) Roku (ROKU) Roblox (RBLX) Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Yes, Circle is off its highs… but it’s still up huge from its January 5 IPO. Well done Cathie! But even with all the high-flying stock action… 3. Investors Don’t Trust This Market The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 35.1% of investors are bullish. This is off the lows from earlier this year. But it’s below the long-term bullish average of 37.5%. We haven’t had an above-average bullish reading since January 29, when 41% of investors are bullish. Rallies are built on doubt, and blow-off tops are driven by a euphoric mood. There are few signs of either. 4. Homebuilders Might Be Sending Smoke Signals Last week, we pointed out the mystery in homebuilding stocks. Lots of folks are talking about soft housing demand and growing supply. But the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) popped almost 5% this week. Could markets be sniffing out rate cuts already? It’s hard to say. President Trump’s been loud and clear that he wants lower rates, and has been ranting and raving about Fed Chair Powell’s measured approach. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump may name the next Fed Chair early to undermine Powell. So what’s the market saying about rates near-term? 5. July Rate Cut? Outlook Not So Good As of Friday afternoon, the CME’s FedWatch Tool was pricing in an 18.6% chance of a July rate cut: The outlook for the September Fed meeting is different. The market is pricing in a 77% chance of 25 bps in cuts by then, and a 17% chance of 50 bps in cuts. But, the economy is humming along and equity markets remain strong, even in the face of the trade war. The real question may be “will the Fed step in BEFORE things break?” I can’t answer that question. Can you? 6. Next Week SHOULD Be Sleepy The market closes early Thursday and it shut on Friday for the July 4 holiday. So the calendar is light: Does that mean we’re in for a sleepy week? Maybe not. Remember, we don’t know what could happen with the trade war or Middle East conflict. The President has a knack for keeping things “interesting.” And volume could be light, exacerbating volatility. If you think you can take it easy into the holiday, you better think twice. 7. Uranium DID NOT Fill the Gap Last week, we pointed out that the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) looked like it might fill its June 16 gap up. It did not! On Monday, New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced plans to build a new nuclear facility. This comes amid the backdrop of a friendlier regulatory environment for the nuclear industry. The AI boom is also driving increased electricity demand, and companies like Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT) have struck nuclear power deals. The Washington Post reported that Former Texas Governor Rick Perry’s company Fermi America just laid out a proposal for four new nuclear reactors near Amarillo. The result: URA is now up 42% YTD, crushing every major ETF, including ARKK, which we discussed earlier. 8. Super Micro’s Short Squeeze Is Epic Last weekend, our buddy Sami Abusaad called Super Micro (SMCI) “trashy.” He also said the stock looked great, and that it could hit $65: SMCI opened Monday morning at $43.47 and fell to $40.77. Now it’s at $47+. What’s driving the stock? Well, tech stocks and AI names have been rocketing higher. And SMCI’s short interest is 16.2%, the third highest of any stock in the S&P 500 Index: Keep it on the radar. 9. Gold Has Been Dropping Like the Rock That It Is I almost wrote “gold is dropping like a rock.” And then I realized gold is a rock. Whatever. It’s been in absolute free fall thanks to improving US-China trade relations and an easing of Middle East tensions. Given how far gold’s come, it could have a long ride down if good news keeps coming. 10. You Can Master the 20 Day Moving Average NOW Sami Abusaad is an amazing trader. Why? Because he keeps things simple, with 2 indicators and nothing else. not even volume. Learn about his favorite one, the 20 day moving average, now. And stop missing the biggest moves in the market:
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – SUPER SPEC SLOWDOWN EDITION!
What a week! Here’s what happened: The FOMC left rates unchanged President Trump demanded rate cuts… again FOMC board member Christopher Waller echoed Trump by saying we should get rate cuts as soon as July We got lousy economic data including misses on retail sales and industrial production There were shocking rallies in select growth stocks Super-speculative stocks slowed down The Israel-Iran conflict had the world on edge And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now: 1. The Super-Duper Spec Rally Is Slowing We fired up our scanner to look for stocks with these attributes: Revenues below $100 million Market Cap over $2.5 billion So forget about profits – these companies barely have any sales. The results were pretty wild. We came up with 23 stocks led by: NuScale Power (SMR): +167% Quantum Computing (QUBT): +142% D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): 107% (numbers are as of Friday June 20 at 1:06 am ET) And the average return this quarter is 47%. Yes, 47%. But over the last week, they are down an average of -0.2%. Just look at the right column in this table – there’s a lotta red in there. So if you’ve been waiting for a slowdown in the wild ones, it may be here. 2. Next Week Will Be a Doozy… Markets are supposed to be sleepy in summer… but look at next week’s calendar. It’s jam-packed: We have: Multiple Fed heads including Powell speaking Tons of key economic data reports including PCE Price Index, GDP, and Durable Goods Earnings from Fedex (FDX), Micron (MU), and Nike (NKE) And that’s on top of whatever headlines come out of the trade war and Middle East. 3. The Odds Don’t Favor a July Rate Cut… YET As of Friday afternoon, the CME’s FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a 14.5% probability of a July rate cut: So Trump and Waller’s calls for cuts aren’t making a dent… yet. If we get a wave of lousy economic data next week – especially a light PCE Price Index number – perhaps the odds start shifting. 4. CoreWeave Might Be the Most Crowded Short in the Market For weeks, we’ve yammered on Twitter/X about the Put Skew in CoreWeave (CRWV) options. As you can see on this options chain, the implied volatility on CoreWeave puts is basically double that of calls. So traders are paying way more for CoreWeave puts than calls. And what does that mean? Everyone is betting against CoreWeave. With so many people on one side of the trade, don’t be shocked if CoreWeave just keeps rallying: 5. Sentiment Remains Weak The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 33.2% of investors are bullish. This is off lows from earlier this year, as you can see on the chart: But it’s below the long-term bullish average of 37.5%. In fact, we haven’t had an above-average bullish reading since January 29, when 41% of investors were bullish. Let’s just remember that it’s awfully tricky to turn sentiment numbers into actionable information for our trades. But nonetheless, it’s a sign that many investors still distrust the market. And it’s healthy because it means there’s little euphoria in this market. 6. ARKK Is on FIRE Did you notice that Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is up 75% from the April lows? How’d this happen? Good old-fashioned stock picking. ARKK’s biggest positions include Tesla (TSLA), Coinbase (COIN), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), Roku (ROKU), and Tempus AI (TEM) — all of which are up huge off the April lows. And if we take a longer-term look, ARKK is +19% YTD and +56% over the last 12 months, crushing the SPY. Well done Cathie! 7. Gold Failed Last week we discussed the possibility of gold powering through $3,450 resistance. Did it happen? No. Gold saw profit-taking this week, even with high uncertainty around the Middle East and on trade. But with the way the world is going, it should be on your radar. And on a related note: 8. Uranium Might Fill the Gap The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) has been an absolute monster this year because of supply-demand dynamics, including AI driving growth for more nuclear power. URA gapped up on June 16 on President Trump’s executive order to support the domestic uranium industry. However, it’s now filling that gap: Let’s keep things in perspective. URA is up 38% this year, so profit taking shouldn’t surprise us. Still, uranium bulls don’t want it filling that gap. 9. Homebuilding Stocks Are a Mystery Is it time to go bottom fishing in homebuilding stocks? After all, housing demand is soft and supply is building. But then we look at this 5-year chart of SPY vs. the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB). And we find that the homebuilders are roughly on par with the overall market: It feels like there’s no edge here. Yes, these stocks are well off the highs, but they’re also not down so much as to be obvious bargains. Maybe we’ll get a signal from KB Homes (KBH), which reports earnings after the close Monday. 10. Candlesticks Can Fail You The T3 house was built on a foundation of technical analysis. Especially candlestick analysis. But JR Romero argues that candlesticks can fail you. Learn how and why in this extended lesson:
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – WAR FOOTING EDITION
What a week! We just saw: Israel launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities President Trump and Elon Musk make nice The US and China inch towards resolution on trade A big cooling of inflation And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now: 1. War Is Driving a Resurgent Gold Trade Early Friday, Israel launched a series of attacks on Iranian nuclear and military targets. That drove a big rally in commodities like oil and precious metals. Gold is up over 30% this year and this conflict could be a catalyst for more gains – especially if Iran retaliates. Breaking through resistance at the $3450 area would the first step: 2. President Trump and Elon Musk Made Up Last week, Elon Musk went to war with President Trump over the “big beautiful bill” being stuffed with more pork than a bacon factory. Musk even dropped this bomb, though it was deleted this week. But these two Titanic egos made nice this week, with Musk Tweeting “I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far.” And yes, this is a stock market story because it’s created extra volatility in Tesla stock. We’ll talk about a problem with Tesla stock below in this article… 3. There’s Been a Shocking Rally in Super-Speculative Stocks We ran a screen in KoyFin for US stocks with these attributes: Revenues below $50 million Market Cap over $2.5 billion So forget about profits – these companies barely have any sales. The results were pretty wild. We have 18 total stocks, and 15 of them are up this quarter, led by: NuScale Power (SMR): +194.8% Quantum Computing (QUBT): +129.4% D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): 111.6% (numbers are as of Thursday June 12 at 10:50 am ET) And the average return is 47%. Yes, 47%. Speaking of surges… 4. Biotech Is Showing Signs of Life, Small Caps Not So Much In recent weeks, we’ve talked about the biotech sector waking up after 10 years of doing a whole lotta nothing. And traders have been eager to see small caps play catch-up thanks to the light CPI and PPI reports. So what’s happening? Biotech is rocking, with the XBI ETF up almost 6% this month. Small caps? Not so much. 5. Sentiment Remains Weak The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.7% of investors are bullish. This is off lows from earlier this year, as you can see on the chart: But it’s below the long-term bullish average of 37.5%. In fact, we haven’t had an above-average bullish reading since January 29, when 41% of investors were bullish. Let’s just remember that it’s awfully tricky to turn sentiment numbers into actionable information for our trades. 6. Sami Abusaad Provided Another WTF Moment… Sami’s known for making bold statements, like when he accurately predicted Tesla (TSLA) $400 and Bitcoin $100,000. And then on June 4, Sami announced that he put 54% of his IRA into the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF (YINN). And guess what? China’s been doing great since then, with YINN up 13% and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) up 4%: Now, is putting 54% of your IRA in a 3X China ETF sound financial planning? Probably not. But when Sami makes a bold claim, you oughta listen. And FYI – we checked with the man himself and he said the long-term China story looks good, but YINN is ready for a short-term pullback. So put it on the radar… 7. HIMS Is a Growth Name Worth Watching Retail traders love Him & Hers (HIMS). Wall Street hates it. We found out why in this exclusive interview with Jonathan Stern, who created the HimsHouse investor community: 8. The 90s Are Back 90s fashion and 90s music are back. And then there’s 90s tech stocks… They are crushing the Mag7. Oracle (ORCL) is up a whopping 29% this month thanks to a great earnings report. And we see big moves in stocks like Micron (MU), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Applied Materials (AMAT): Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) are getting left in the dust… And speaking of Tesla… 9. Tesla Estimates Are in Freefall One year ago, analysts expected Tesla to earn $3.45 a share in FY2025. That number is down to $1.89 today. Yet Tesla stock is up 86% over the last year. How long can this last? Tesla stock runs on hope… but the numbers have to add up eventually. Right? 10. Inner Circle Prices Are Going Up Prices on David Prince’s Inner Circle community are going UP to: $7,000 per year $800 per month Why do people love this community so much? Find out in this webinar replay. Then go here to apply.
Continue Reading -->Why Is HIMS Stock So Hated?
Today we sat down with Jonathan Stern of HimsHouse to discuss the ever-controversial Hims & Hers (HIMS) — a stock hated by Wall Street, loved by retail: We learn: The unique story behind HimsHouse Why retail investors love this meme-friendly stock so much – and why Wall Street hates it Why HIMS is growing so fast The long-term expansion story the “experts” might be missing A major problem with financial data services Jonathan’s long-term revenue forecast for HIMS And MORE!
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Trump vs. Musk Edition
What a week! We just saw: President Trump and Elon Musk enter a war of very unkind words President Trump make nice with China A surprise catalyst for the “Ultimate Trump Trade” A better-than-expected jobs report A sign of life in a “left for dead” sector And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now: 1. President Trump and Elon Musk Went to War Elon Musk went to war with President Trump this week thanks to the “big beautiful bull” being stuffed with more pork than a bacon convention. Musk did not hold back, with these messages getting over 260 million views on Twitter. Tesla (TSLA) stock took a beating, dropping 14% this week while tech stocks were up. However, the President did not go scorched-earth in response, and news reports indicate that Trump and Musk might reconcile. And, a CNN source reported that President Trump told Vice President JD Vance to “speak diplomatically” about the mess. So in keeping with the news flow rollercoaster, maybe Trump and Musk will make nice a la Zoolander and Hansel: Tesla longs are hoping for that. 2. We Need to Give Sami Abusaad a Shout-Out Last weekend, Sami said the market was heading back to all-time highs. Sami said: Forget the news flow Forget bond yields Forget the futures markets And just focus on the price action. As we write this on Friday at 1:27 pm ET, SPY is up 1.5% for the week and QQQ is up over 2%. By the way, Sami put 54% of his IRA into a very unusual ETF. Get it here. 3. The Economy Is Alive and Kicking While the doomsday crowd expects the US economy to fold because of tariff-related strife… things are humming along. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report was better-than-expected. Traders were bracing for a mess because of Wednesday’s weak ADP report. But the US economy remains alive and kicking. Another positive sign: JOLTS Job Openings came in above expectations, meaning US companies are still looking to hire. 4. The Mood Is Still Sour AAII Sentiment came in at 32.7% bullish this week, in-line with last week’s reading. This is well off the February and March lows, which preceded “Liberation Day,” which sent the US-China conflict into high gear. However, we’re still below the 37.5% long-term average. In fact, we haven’t had an above-average reading since January 29. So the mood remains sour. 5. The Ultimate Trump Trade Gets a New Catalyst We’ve talked extensively about the huge outperformance in stocks that benefit from financial market volatility, namely: Robinhood (HOOD): +189% since the election Interactive Brokers (IBKR): +34% Coinbase (COIN): +32% Charles Schwab (SCHW): +24% But a new catalyst for two of these names may be on the horizon. S&P Global will report new additions to the S&P 500 after the close on Friday. And Robinhood (HOOD) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR) both have a chance to be added by virtue of their large market caps – $67 billion for HOOD and $90 billion for IBKR. 6. Left-for-Dead Biotech Shows a Sign of Life Biotech has been a mess for over a decade. Over the last 10 years, SPY is up 240%. And XBI is up 5%> BUT… XBI managed to rally over 6% this week. Traders have been burned for years buying biotech dips. Could this be the turning point? It’s hard to say – but keep this group on your radar. 7. Q2 Earnings Expectations Are Crazy Low Q1 earnings season was an unqualified success, with 78% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations, according to FactSet. And here’s the good news for Q2 – estimates are dropping like a rock. On March 31, analysts forecast 9.3% EPS growth for Q2. Today it’s 4.9%. Is that crazy low? Yes. Is it convenient? Yes, again. When the bar is low, it’s easy for companies to beat expectations. 8. Bitcoin Is Taking a Nap Bitcoin went on a wild rally off the April lows. Last week, we asked whether Bitcoin needed a nap because of weakness in MicroStrategy (MSTR) and GameStop’s (GME) Bitcoin purchase announcement, which spurred a sell-the-news reaction. Turns out, we should have shorted Bitcoin because it’s under pressure: Is this a disaster? Nah. Bitcoin went up 50% in a straight line. It deserved a nap. 9. It’s Still a Trader’s Market David Prince of T3 Live’s Inner Circle community argues that you need to have your trader hat on. [IMPORTANT: David is hosting a webinar which you can sign up for here.] And with the market grinding higher, the best opportunities are “under the hood.” See what he means: 10. You Need Some Gratitude! Friday marked the 81st anniversary of the D-Day landing on the beaches of Normandy, France. If not for the 150,000+ brave souls from around the world that risked it all, we might not be here. Be grateful! And watch Saving Private Ryan this weekend. I once worked for a former Army Officer who survived the assault. He said it was the most realistic depiction of Normandy that he ever saw. Rest in peace, Mr. Duffy. Have a great weekend folks.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Not Winning Bigly Edition!
What a week! We just saw: A gigantic surge in stocks in May The US-EU trade relations get better The US-China tariff situation turn into a big fat mess all over again Nvidia (NVDA) beat earnings estimates… and then flop like a dead chicken Inflation continue to trend lower And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now. 1. President Trump Is Not Winning Bigly… For Now President Trump had another big week. On Tuesday, the market felt warm & fuzzy feelings after he issued a tariff delay to the EU. Then on Wednesday, a federal court said Trump overstepped his authority by using emergency powers to slap tariffs on foreign countries. And on Friday, the President accused China of violating the recent Geneva trade deal, sending stocks lower. So while he was “winning bigly” in recent weeks, things are getting messy. Of course, God only knows what news will hit this weekend. So buckle up buttercups! BTW, down below, we update you on the “Ultimate Trump Trade” so keep reading. 2. We’ve Come a Long, Long Way Markets were clearly troubled by Friday’s China news, but let’s not get carried away. But we’ve come a long, long way from the April post-Liberation day lows. SPY is up over 21% since then: And QQQ is up almost 30%. Maybe the market was just waiting for a catalyst before it took a break. But again… anything can happen come Monday. 3. Nvidia Was Good But Not Good Enough On Wednesday, Nvidia beat earnings expectations for the 10th straight quarter. And when we look at the long run, the company’s growth has been shocking: But Nvidia’s guidance was weak thanks to US trade restrictions on China. So as of Friday afternoon, the stock gave up all its post-earnings gains: 4. The Mood Is Slightly Sour The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 32.9% of investors are bullish. This is down from last week’s 37.7% reading, and it’s below the long-term average of 37.5%. Still, this reading is much improved from the March-April lows, when everyone was losing their minds over tariff fears. 5. Could Lower Inflation Be Bad? The PCE Price Index was a lower-than-expected 2.1% in April to extend the downtrend from post-pandemic highs: This follows light CPI and PPI prints. But let’s ask a question no one’s thinking about. What if lower inflation is a bad thing? What if it means economic demand is sagging? And what if it means the Fed is behind the curve and moving too slow? Since I got a B- in macroeconomics, I won’t pretend I know what’s going to happen. But I am a little worried. 6. Whose House? HIMS House! Hims & Hers (HIMS) a.k.a. the Netflix of primal needs and desires, shot up on Friday out of nowhere. Why? One theory being floated is that the company will be added to the S&P 500. We also caught this announcement from Jonathan Stern’s “Hims House” X account, announcing “we’ve raised our Q2 revenue prediction.” $HIMS Q2 OUTLOOK STRENGTHENING INTO HOME STRETCH 🔥 The week ending May 18 was the strongest since April. Total observed sales +87% YoY. As a result, we’ve raised our Q2 revenue prediction. Here’s our full $HIMS Data Tracker recap: (link below) pic.twitter.com/2NVYl1YcQG — Hims House (@himshouse) May 30, 2025 If you’re following the HIMS story (I’m long myself), follow this account. And oh yeah, don’t forget HIMS has 27.8% short interest. According to KoyFin, that makes it the most shorted stock in the S&P Midcap 400 ETF (MDY): 7. Ultimate Trump Trade Update The President is a mean, lean, orange, volatility-generating machine. So what is the real Trump Trade? These 4 stocks, which have crushed the major indices: Robinhood (HOOD): +157% since the election Interactive Brokers (IBKR): +34% Coinbase (COIN): +27% Charles Schwab (SCHW): +24% So long as Trump can shake the table without breaking it, trading volumes should stay on the rise. On May 1, Interactive Brokers said Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs) were up 63% YoY in April. And May was pretty wild too! 8. Biotech Is So Ugly, This Chart Might Scare Your Kids Just when you thought it was safe to sniff around the biotech sector, Regeneron (REGN) and Sanofi (SNY) get slapped on negative trial data. But could this sector actually bottom at some point? Look at this 10-year chart of SPY vs. XBI: SPY is up 230%. And XBI is up 1%. Doesn’t get uglier than that. Traders have been burned for years buying biotech dips. That has to change at some point. Right? 9. You Can Learn to Trade Like Jesse Livermore Jesse Livermore is one of the greatest traders of all time. And Sami Abusaad will teach you the #1 trading secret from Livermore’s 100-year old book “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.” 10. 2 Dark Omens for Bitcoin? Bitcoin went on a tear off the April lows, rewarding the faithful with a huge run. But it’s been slipping since the May 22 peak at $112,000. And interestingly – sector favorite MicroStrategy (MSTR) has been dropping like a rock. Plus on May 28, video-game retailer GameStop (GME) announced it bought 4,710 Bitcoin. And what happened? A big fat sell-the-news: Bitcoin might need a nap to recharge. Have a great weekend folks.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – NVIDIA IS COMING!
What a week! We just saw: The market roll its eyes at the Moody’s downgrade of the United States’ credit rating President Trump throw some huge tariff bombs at the European Union and Apple (AAPL) Trump’s controversial tax bill pass the house A shocking rally in Bitcoin Wild ups and down for UnitedHealth (UNH) A wild comeback in Alphabet (GOOGL) A failed bond auction that turned into a buying opportunity Sentiment turn bullish after a huge stock market rally And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now. 1. Next Week Will Be WILD Just look at this freaking calendar and tell me you’re not pumped for next week – because Mr. Market’s packing a ton of stuff into 4 days: We have: The long-awaited NVIDIA (NVDA) Q1 earnings report – plus reports from Costco (COST), Salesforce (CRM), Dell (DELL), Marvel (MRVL), Zscaler (ZS), and others The FOMC Meeting Minutes US GDP US PCE Price Index And a whole lot more economic data! Plus, we can’t forget… 2. President Trump Will Rock the Boat Friday looked like any other day… until the President dropped these bombs on Truth Social: Yes, we kicked off the day reading about threats of a 50% tariff on the European Union, and a 25% tariff on Apple (AAPL). The market got hit hard and fast. But traders viewed this latest rock of the boat as a buying opportunity. The bottom was in by 8:12 am: The market is no longer freaking out at the President’s strategy of negotiating hard in public. And of course, he could announce within hours that everyone’s best buddies all over again. So maybe Apple’s (AAPL) up huge on Tuesday? Who knows… 3. NVIDIA Is a Mystery In April, NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings estimates fell for the first time in years after the company took a $5.5 billion charge because of export restrictions on the H20 AI chip. Sound bad, right? Well since then, the President went on a dealmaking rampage in the Middle East with a major emphasis on AI. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said the company would sell more than 18,000 Blackwell chips to Saudi Arabia’s Humain. Plus, the US is partnering with the United Arab Emirates to build a major AI campus, and NVIDIA is joining the party, according to CNBC. And the Financial Times reported today that Oracle (ORCL) will drop $40 billion on NVIDIA chips for OpenAI’s new US data center. So could NVIDIA deliver monster guidance on its Wednesday earnings report? It seems possible. Speaking of NVIDIA, did you notice that… 4. Mag7 Stocks Are Kicking Butt in May Just as we started calling the Mag7 the Lag7… they perked up. Six of the Mag7 are in positive territory for May with an average gain off 11%, beating the QQQ’s 7% rally. And 2 are up more than 20% – NVIDIA and Tim Walz’ favorite stock Tesla (TSLA). Not so bad. Now, here’s a fun Mag7 fact we bet you didn’t know… 5. IBM Is Crushing the Mag7 This Year IBM (IBM) is the #1 stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this year with a 19% gain. So we compared IBM to the Mag7, and it’s winning. Big time. Here are the numbers: 6. Nuclear Stocks Went Nuclear President Trump signed four executive orders to ease regulations on the nuclear industry, with a focus on increasing US uranium production. Now, why do we need more nuclear power? Because AI apps like ChatGPT, Grok, Claude, Perplexity, etc. use shocking amounts of electricity. (pun intended) That sent uranium stocks through the roof Friday, with the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) surging 12%: Keep your eye on this sector because uranium might be the next “hot AI trade.” And outside of uranium, there’s been hot action in power-grid names like GE Vernova (GEV), NRG Energy (NRG), and Constellation Energy (CEG). 7. Traders Actually Turned Bullish The latest AAII sentiment survey shows that 37.7% of investors are bullish. This is just above the long-term average of 37.5%. And it’s the first above-average bullish reading since January 30. This is a perfect examples of how sentiment often follows price. So two scenarios can play out: 1) Traders keep bidding up equities as sentiment goes from “regular bullish “to “super bullish” 2) We see a top or consolidation phase since sentiment has already improved so fast What do you think? 8. There’s Something Funny About MicroStrategy (MSTR) Look at this chart comparing Bitcoin and MicroStrategy (MSTR): Bitcoin’s been pretty steady-as-she-goes, yet sector leader MicroStrategy is getting slapped with the ugly stock. Is Bitcoin about to drop? 9. Gold May Resume Its Downtrend Gold was the talk of the town in 2025 until its peak on April 22. And as you can see on the chart, it’s put in a series of lower highs and lower lows – a classic example of a downtrend. If we walk into some happy news next week, the downtrend likely resumes. 10. You Need This Rant from JR Romero Too many traders make things complicated. Well, JR has just 4 words for you. And one of them starts with the letter F: Enjoy your weekend. You earned it.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Winning Bigly Edition!
What a week! We just saw: President Trump go full shock & awe on the news front Inflation surprise to the downside Earnings season close out on a super strong note And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now. 1. President Trump Is Winning Bigly… For Now President Trump had one heck of a week, generating so much news that it’s impossible to figure out how good it all is – and how much credit he deserves. He: Signed an Executive Order to lower prescription drug prices Secured a $600 billion investment from Saudi Arabia and a $1.2 trillion commitment from Qatar Made $200 billion in deals with the UEA, including an agreement to build the largest AI campus outside the United States Allegedly brokered a ceasefire between Pakistan and India Said he’s getting closer to a nuclear deal with Iran Lifted sanctions on Syria Defended himself against a verbal assault from Bruce Springsteen Launched an unprovoked attack on Taylor Swift Got a free airplane Did we miss anything? Following the news is exhausting. But financial markets appreciate the injection of some certainty that the world will carry on. And for now, the market feels like the scoreboard for the President’s economic agenda. So for now, the President is winning. Bigly! For fun, we asked our X/Twitter audience if Trump was a “Very Stable Genius” or a “Madman.” The results leaned towards Madman: 2: We Need to Talk About How Awesome Earnings Season Was There were two big stories this earnings season. The first was all the companies pulling guidance because of tariff drama – like Snap (SNAP), United Parcel Service (UPS), and American Airlines (AAL). The second was earnings being way better than expected. According FactSet, Q1 earnings grew by 13.6%, smashing expectations for 7.2% growth. So we must ask – could expectations for Q2 earnings season be far too low? FactSet says analysts predict EPS growth of just 4.8%. And 91% of S&P 500 companies discussed tariffs on their earnings calls. So could we see a repeat of Q1 where companies beat overly negative expectations? Yes – especially if Trump can strike a deal with China. 3. NVIDIA Is Coming Back into Focus NVIDIA’s (NVDA) last earnings report was good – but not quite strong enough to meet super-high expectations. And then the company announced $5.5 billion charge due to export restrictions on its H20 AI chips. So the stock crapped out. But with all the AI dealmaking happening – could NVIDIA surprise investors in a good way on its May 28 earnings report? Because that’s what it feels like. The market is expecting good things – after all, the stock is up 55% from its April lows. 4. Inflation Is Over? Outside of the President’s deals, the big economic story this week was the light CPI and PPI reports. And of course, the world celebrated the long-awaited drop in egg prices: On the flip side of this, WalMart (WMT) warned that higher prices were coming because of tariffs. At this month’s FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell waxed poetic about the Fed’s data-driven approach to monetary policy. That drove some mockery. But can you blame him? Let’s be honest. None of us can make sense of all the chaos. 5. Love Is Almost in the Air This week’s AAII Sentiment survey shows that 35.9% of investors are bullish. This is below the long-term average of 37.5%. But it’s a big jump from the multi-year lows seen in March and April. Nothing changes the mood like higher prices. Also, the CNN Fear & Greed Index went from 3/100 on April 8 to 77/100 on May 16: 6. UnitedHealth Hits a Technical Milestone – and Might Be Headed to $340 UnitedHealth (UNH) was destroyed this week. In the span of 2 days, its CEO resigned and the Wall Street Journal reported the Department of Justice is investigating the company for possible Medicare fraud. The stock was sent back to 2020 levels, and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit 11 on Thursday. It’s hard to get more oversold than that – UNH’s RSI had not been that low since 1998. The stock had a vicious rally off the lows. And on Friday, Sami Abusaad called it long in the Number Ones newsletter. Where is UNH stock going from here? Sami first target is $320, then $340. Given the way Sami nailed Tesla (TSLA), you should listen to him. 7. Gold Looks Sloppy Gold was the star of the market in 2025… up until April 22. Since then, it’s down 8% as an easing of trade tensions and improved economic data pushed traders back towards risk assets like stocks. But is gold now a buy? Our own JR Romero and Sami Abusaad say no. Both argue there is more downside ahead. 8. Energy Might Be a Banging Buy When no one wants an asset, it just might be the buy of a lifetime. Bank of America said this week that fund managers are historically underweight oil and gas stocks. Funds are historically underweight oil and gas equities, per Bank of America pic.twitter.com/b3qpMRizZs — Josh Young (@Josh_Young_1) May 13, 2025 That’s no surprise given oil’s collapse this year, which has pushed down energy stocks. Over the past 12 months, SPY is up 13.2% while XLE and OIH are off by -6.3% and -28.5% respectively. With everyone bearish on energy stocks – maybe now’s the time to take the other side of the trade. 9. GOOGL Rose Like a Phoenix Alphabet (GOOGL) hit a low of $147.84 on May 7 when Apple (AAPL) said it saw Google searches fall in the Safari web browser for the 1st time ever. But it’s risen like a phoenix since then, reclaiming the key $165 level with a vengeance. Of course, the “Google Is Dead” theme has been floated for years. Here’s a Fortune headline from February 1, 2023: “Gmail creator predicts A.I. bots
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – 4D Chess Edition!
What a week! We just saw: A non-event of an FOMC rate announcement & presser A meltdown in Alphabet (GOOGL) on a search slowdown Palantir (PLTR) stage a massive rebound… and another name mimic it performance Earnings season close out on a strong note President Trump assign FOMC Chair Jerome Powell the nickname “Too Late Powell” So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now. 1. This Weekend’s 4D Chess Match Is BIGLY The market is eager to see the results of this weekend’s trade talks between the US and China. On Friday morning, President Trump said on Truth Social that “80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B.” This is lower than the 145% tariffs that are on some Chinese products now… but it sounds like just another random number as the President engages in what his fans like to call “4-D chess.” Regardless, the market wants more progress on trade ASAP. We already have a US-UK trade agreement, so a deal with China would be a major positive, since it would inspire even more countries to strike agreements. But based on the wacky news flow we’ve seen since April 2 a.k.a. “Liberation Day” – anything can happen. So hold onto your hats. And yes, there’s a CPI report coming on Tuesday, but trade is everything right now. 2. This Sector May Be “The Ultimate Trump Trade” When President Trump was elected, the Trump Trade was led by Tesla (TSLA) and Bitcoin. But “The Ultimate Trump Trade” may be in brokerage stocks like Robinhood (HOOD), Interactive Brokers (IBKR) (a name I own), and Webull (BULL). Why? Because the President is giving us nonstop reasons to put on trades. And they’re kicking butt so far in May: Now, there is a tricky balance here. The ideal scenario is nonstop volatility that leads to rising stock prices. Because if the market gets wiped out, that’s when people start closing accounts and ignoring stocks altogether. Higher rates would also help these stocks because that means increased profitability on margin loans to traders. 3. Earnings Season Was Really Good There were two real stories this earnings season. The first was a large number of companies pulling guidance because of the tariff drama – like Snap (SNAP), United Parcel Service (UPS), and American Airlines (AAL). The second was earnings being way better than anyone expected. According to our friends at FactSet, Q1 earnings were expected to grow by 7.2%. Yet they grew at 12.8%. Factset said: “Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages.” Plus there’s more good news. Q2 estimates are coming down faster by an above-average margin. That means low expectations. 4. Big Hate Backs Down Sentiment has been negative for most of 2025. But it’s getting better now thanks to the SPX’ 17% rally off the April lows. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 29.4% of investors are bullish, up from 20.9% last week: 29.4% is lower than the historical bullish average of 37.5%, but it’s the highest level since February 5. Nothing changes hearts and minds like a nice fat rally. 5. Bitcoin Is Flying High Again Four weeks ago, I argued that “No One Cares About Bitcoin’s Relative Strength.” But Bitcoin’s been going wild, with the IBIT ETF up 25% since the end of March, crushing SPY: Speaking of Bitcoin, did you see JR Romero’s “bloody insane” price target on MicroStrategy (MSTR)? You can get it in this video: 6. Powerful Palantir Rose Like a Phoenix Palantir (PLTR) reported Q1 earnings after the close on Monday. The report was great but guidance wasn’t strong enough to drive an immediate thrust higher. Palantir closed at $123.77 Monday and gapped down to a low of $105.32 Tuesday. And as of Friday at 11:58 am, it’s at $117.25. Retail investors can’t get enough of this stock. Yet analysts hate it. Just 4 of the 25 analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, according to Koyfin. 7. Add HIMS to the List of Retail Favorites Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) also reported Monday – and did almost the exact same thing as Palantir. It had a impressive earnings report that wasn’t strong enough for an immediate push up. And then dip buyers came in with a vengeance: HIMS hit a post-earnings low of $38.21 Tuesday morning and now it’s over $50. That’s a 31% pop. Like Palantir, HIMS is hated by analysts. Just 4 of 14 analysts rate it a buy. So why do retail investors like HIMS so much? First, the company is growing super fast. Second, the business model is tailor-made for memes and jokes. Just look at the Hims.com home page: Every time a stock drops, somebody’s making the joke “order it some HIMS.” As an added bonus, short interest is 27.3%, which means plenty of fuel for squeezes. And yes… the author of this article is long HIMS stock and 100% biased. Some other meme-esque retail favorites to watch: Webull (BULL) D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Lemonade (LMND) EOS Energy (EOSE) Grab Holdings (GRAB) Make sure you do your homework because these names are WILD. 8. Apple Is an Underrated AI Stock This week,Apple (AAPL) said it was looking at including AI search into the Safari browser, just as Google Searches in Safari declined for the first time ever. This brought out detractors to keep arguing that Apple is way behind in AI. But, is anyone ignoring the obvious? You can download any number of AI apps like ChatGPT, Grok, Perplexity, etc. to your Apple devices. Let’s do a social experiment. Tell your kids “Apple is behind in AI, so we’re taking away your iPhone and giving you an Android phone.” See how they react. I’ll go to the grave saying that what matters for Apple is ease of use in the ecosystem, and the blue bubbles in iMessage. I’ll let Mark Zuckerberg explain: 9. Disney Just Went
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