Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before you start, take a special sneak peak at this week's special offer from Scott Redler. SHHH! Don't tell anyone!
Use the Table of Contents to jump around:
This Week's Trading Calendar
If you want to view or download this week's calendar, check click the image below:
Click to enlarge
Quick reminder: US markets are closed Monday, June 19 for the Juneteenth holiday.
Week in Review: Tech Booms Again
FOMC Chair Jerome Powell's "hawkish pause" did not deter the bulls, while the light CPI gave traders hope that inflation really is under control.
Plus, the University of Michigan sentiment survey showed that US consumers' near-term inflation expectations are at a two-year low.
So while Powell is technically hawkish, it feels like the market is pricing in a rate-easing scenario far in the future. After all, tech and housing are booming.
As such, from a price action perspective, the big story this week was the resurgence in tech with the QQQ's up 3.8% and IWM falling behind after its recent surge.
Having the 4 horsemen all in green territory despite feeling overbought is mighty impressive.
From a sector perspective, we saw major strength in natural gas, airlines/travel, transports, and semiconductors.
Some of this week's leaders include:
Carnival Cruise (CCL): +21%
Intel (INTC): +16%
Estee Lauder (EL): +16%
Oracle (ORCL): +14%
Catelent (CTLT): +14%
Plus, tech superstars Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) hit all-time highs.
The June Surge
Now let's take a quick look at ETF performance in June. As you can see, just about everything is up:
IWM and RSP (equal weight SPX ETF) are outperforming SPY, so the rally is broadening out a bit.
Bulls Have No Fear
The VIX is still at multi-year lows, showing that traders are pricing in almost no volatility:
By the way, if you want to learn more about the VIX, go here.
Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors' Sentiment Survey showed a bullish sentiment for the second week in a row:
45.2% of investors are bullish, in-line with last week's 45.2% reading.
This is the highest reading since November 11, 2021. The S&P 500 topped out less than 2 months after that.
Plus, CNN's Fear and Greed Index still read Extreme Greed:
Traders are still very bullish.
A Light Calendar
We're coming off a busy week with the FOMC Rate Decision and CPI, but we have a few key reports on tap:
- Tuesday: Building Permits
- Thursday: Jobless Claims, Existing Homes Sales
- Friday: Services PMI
The bears have been hunting (and maybe hoping) for evidence of a recession, but none of these reports are in the "make or break category."
Some Earnings Biggies
Earnings season has slowed down quite a bit but we saw three blockbusters last week with Oracle (ORCL), Lennar (LEN), and Adobe (ADBE).
Keep an eye on these reports:
- Tuesday: Fedex (FDX) for insights on consumer spending and ecommerce demand
- Wednesday: KB Homes (KBH) - homebuilding stocks are up huge in 2023 and we'll see if KB follow's Lennar's lead
- Thursday: Darden Restaurants (DRI) - will tell us about consumer strength
- Friday: CarMax (KMX) - used car stocks have been flying so we'll see if the fundamentals are catching up with prices.
The Best ETFs of 2023 - Semis on Fire
Semiconductors are still on fire with a 51.2% gain for SMH.
Outside of tech, housing stocks are still booming and airlines are sneaking up on everyone too.
Trading Insights from Marty Zweig
David Prince of T3's Inner Circle shared this on Twitter:
— The Inner Circle Trading Group DP David Prince (@epictrades1) June 16, 2023
P.S. Don't forget to take a peak at Scott Redler's special offer.