T3 Live

Are the Fearless Bulls Slipping? What’s on Tap June 26-30, 2023


First, sign up for this week's special events!

How to Trade the Open With Sami Abusaad

Chat With a Pro Trader With Andrew Moss

Now use the Table of Contents to jump around:

This Week's Trading Calendar

If you want to view or download this week's calendar, check click the image below:

Click to enlarge

Week in Review: Slippin'

After 5 weeks up, the market finally took a breather with the 4 horsemen ETFs all slipping.

Fed Chair Powell came out hawkish again on Wednesday, saying inflation is "well above" where it needs to be.

He also said “Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year."

Tech and housing stocks have raged higher this year, implying that traders have been gearing up for an eventual easing.

Looks like that may be further off in the distance.

The June Surge

Now let's take a quick look at ETF performance in June. As you can see, just about everything is up:

However, some traders are concerned about slippage in IWM, which might be back in laggard status after an early-June surge.

That could mean the rally narrowing once again, forcing the market to rely on tech to carry the weight.

Bulls Still Have No Fear

The VIX is once again making new multiyear lows, showing that traders are pricing in almost no volatility:

Some traders believe the VIX could be set to bounce, but check out the blue bubble on the chart above.

Many traders and investors got burned getting long volatility back then as the market just floated higher. 

By the way, if you want to learn more about the VIX, go here.

Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors' Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment for the third week in a row:

42.9% of investors are bullish, down slightly last week's 45.2% reading.

The last time sentiment was this bullish was November 2021. The S&P 500 topped out less than 2 months later.

Plus, CNN's Fear and Greed Index still read Extreme Greed:

Make no mistake: traders are bullish.

The Calendar Picks Up

We're coming off a pretty light week data-wise but things get busy next week:

  • Monday 6/26: Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index
  • Tuesday 6/27: Durable Goods, Redbook, House Price Index, S&P/GS HPI Composite, New Home Sales, 
  • Wednesday 6/28: Retail Inventories, Wholesale Inventories, Fed Chair Powell Speaks, Fed Bank Stress Test Results
  • Thursday 6/29: Jobless Claims, GDP, Pending Home Sales
  • Friday 6/30: Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment

The bears have been hunting (and maybe hoping) for evidence of a recession, so maybe they'll get some evidence with the Durable Goods and GDP reports.

And of course, traders will key on Powell on Wednesday and the Core PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation guage) on Friday.

Some Earnings Biggies

Earnings season has slowed down but we do have some notable reports this week

Keep an eye on these reports:

  • Monday: Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) - cruise and travel stocks have raged higher and CCL is one of the best stocks of the year. Will the fundamentals confirm the move? 
  • Tuesday: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) - should give us insights on the consumer.
  • Wednesday: Micron (MU) - semis have been on fire this year so we'll see if Micron predicts good things to come.
  • Thursday: Nike (NKE) - will tell us about consumer strength.

The Best ETFs of 2023 - Semis Slowing?

Semiconductors are still leading by a country mile this year with a 46.1% gain:

However, semis had a rough week.

We'll see if Micron's earnings report reignites the group.

Industry Insights from Rob Koyfman, CEO of Koyfin

This week, we hosted a Twitter Space with Rob Koyfman, CEO of Koyfin. We talk about what traders look for in a software platform, and the role of AI in market data analysis.

Leave a Comment: