10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Now
What a week! We just saw:
- Countless twists in the trade war
- Tesla (TSLA) delivered a lousy earnings report… and then skyrocketed
- Netflix (NFLX) and Google (GOOGL) prove that not all is lost when it comes to tech earnings
- A big slowdown in the metals trade
- Outrageously bearish sentiment
- A momentum stock surge
So let's dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now.
1. Big Hate = Big Money
This week's AAII Sentiment data showed massive bearishness, in keeping with the 2025 trend:
As you can see, bears have outnumbered bulls for months on concerns about the trade war and economy.
This embedded negativity is the best argument for an extended rebound.
Because if we do get good news on trade (like a real deal with China), the upside could be violent.
2. The Earnings Are Coming!
We have a BIG week of earnings coming up including:
- Tuesday: Visa (V), Starbucks (SBUX), Spotify (SPOT), UPS (UPS)
- Wednesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Qualcomm (QCOM)
- Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microstrategy (MSTR), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA)
FactSet tells us:
Although the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises is below recent averages, the magnitude of earnings surprises is above recent averages. As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the first quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter.
So earnings season is not the disaster the bears have desired.
With a huge portion of the S&P 500 reporting next week, could things shift in a positive way?
Our own David Prince is focused on Meta. Find out why here:
3. Apple Will Be More Interesting Than Usual
As the #1 component in the SPX index, Apple (AAPL) always carries a ton of weight during earnings season.
A big beat or miss from Apple can create a meaningful shift in index-wide numbers.
This time around, Apple is even more interesting because we'll learn so many things, like:
- Did tariff fears really cause an iPhone buying rush, as reported by Bloomberg and others? And does that mean a weak forward outlook because demand was “stolen” from future quarters?
- Is Apple really moving iPhone production to India as Reuters says?
- Will Apple follow Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), American Airlines (AAL), and Chipotle (CMG) in reporting a consumer slowdown?
Should be fun… and then there's:
4. Ferrari!
Yes, Ferrari (RACE) is a publicly traded company. It's been a monster performer over the years with an $81 billion market cap:
European automakers have been freaked out by President Trump's tariff threats.
Because tariffs would be passed on to consumers, making European cars less competitive with American models.
But if any company can say “yeah, our customers just don't care about higher prices,” it's going to be Ferrari.
We'll see when the rubber hits the road* with Ferrari's earnings report on Tuesday.
*we apologize for this bad pun
5. Palantir Could Hit “Lucky” Number 7
Palantir (PLTR) brutalized the bears this week and it's up over 60% from the April lows.
It's up 47% this year and is the #1 stock in the Nasdaq 100 index.
MercadoLibre (MELI) is in second place with a 30% gain… way behind.
Palantir is expected to report earnings on May 5.
The company has beaten revenue and earnings estimates for 6 straight quarters.
A conspiracy theorist might assume US intelligence agencies will make it “lucky” number 7… but we'll talk about that another time.
6. Gold Might Melt Down
Gold is the #1 performing asset in 2025 by a long shot, crushing assets like equities and Bitcoin:
But GLD just slipped 4% off the highs after going near-parabolic.
Is this garden-variety profit taking?
Or is the market sniffing out progress on trade with China?
Because resolution could create a massive metals meltdown.
7. The Bitcoin Story Is Picking Up Steam
Two weeks ago, I argued that “No One Cares About Bitcoin’s Relative Strength.”
That narrative is changing fast with Bitcoin crushing stocks in April.
The IBIT ETF is up almost 16% while SPY is down:
8. Awful Consumer Confidence May Be a Good Thing
Michigan Consumer Sentiment was better-than-expected at 52.2.
But on a historical basis, it's down in the dumps.
And it's way below post-election highs:
So if we have people bearish on stocks (based on AAII Sentiment Data) and people worried about the economy, we could have the makings of a durable bottom.
After all, you have to assume a lot of sellers have done their selling because of their bearishness.
And maybe they're done.
But let's slap a big emphasis on the word could.
Because market timing with sentiment data is very tricky business.
9. Biotech Might Be Back
On April 14, we saw a Boston Globe article entitled “It's the end of Kendall Square as we know it. What if biotech never bounces back?”
Magazine Cover Indicator for $XBI?
Could biotech have bottomed?
cc: @epictrades1 pic.twitter.com/STIjdJBo3z
— T3 Live (@t3live) April 14, 2025
Now let's match that up with a long-term chart:
Could this have marked a bottom in biotech?
I mean… you don't read headlines like that at tops.
10. Put These Names on Your Radar…
Since we're talking about biotech, we ran a screen for possible biotech short squeezes using Koyfin.
We screened using these parameters:
- Member of the XBI ETF
- $2 billion+ market Cap
- Short interest of 10% or more
We came up with 17 names:
- Soleno Therapeutics Inc. (SLNO)
- Kymera Therapeutics Inc. (KYMR)
- TG Therapeutics Inc. (TGTX)
- BridgeBio Pharma Inc. (BBIO)
- Avidity Biosciences Inc. (RNA)
- SpringWorks Therapeutics Inc. (SWTX)
- Apogee Therapeutics Inc. (APGE)
- Scholar Rock Holding Corporation (SRRK)
- Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST)
- Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL)
- Arcellx Inc. (ACLX)
- Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RXRX)
- Cytokinetics Incorporated (CYTK)
- Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX)
- Moderna Inc. (MRNA)
- Immunovant Inc. (IMVT)
- Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (APLS)
They may rip HARD if biotech wakes up. But be careful because this is risky business.