10 Things You Need to Know – 4D Chess Edition!
What a week! We just saw:
- A non-event of an FOMC rate announcement & presser
- A meltdown in Alphabet (GOOGL) on a search slowdown
- Palantir (PLTR) stage a massive rebound… and another name mimic it performance
- Earnings season close out on a strong note
- President Trump assign FOMC Chair Jerome Powell the nickname “Too Late Powell”
So let's dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now.
1. This Weekend's 4D Chess Match Is BIGLY
The market is eager to see the results of this weekend's trade talks between the US and China.
On Friday morning, President Trump said on Truth Social that “80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B.”
This is lower than the 145% tariffs that are on some Chinese products now… but it sounds like just another random number as the President engages in what his fans like to call “4-D chess.”
Regardless, the market wants more progress on trade ASAP.
We already have a US-UK trade agreement, so a deal with China would be a major positive, since it would inspire even more countries to strike agreements.
But based on the wacky news flow we've seen since April 2 a.k.a. “Liberation Day” – anything can happen.
So hold onto your hats.
And yes, there's a CPI report coming on Tuesday, but trade is everything right now.
2. This Sector May Be “The Ultimate Trump Trade”
When President Trump was elected, the Trump Trade was led by Tesla (TSLA) and Bitcoin.
But “The Ultimate Trump Trade” may be in brokerage stocks like Robinhood (HOOD), Interactive Brokers (IBKR) (a name I own), and Webull (BULL).
Why?
Because the President is giving us nonstop reasons to put on trades.
And they're kicking butt so far in May:
Now, there is a tricky balance here.
The ideal scenario is nonstop volatility that leads to rising stock prices.
Because if the market gets wiped out, that's when people start closing accounts and ignoring stocks altogether.
Higher rates would also help these stocks because that means increased profitability on margin loans to traders.
3. Earnings Season Was Really Good
There were two real stories this earnings season.
The first was a large number of companies pulling guidance because of the tariff drama – like Snap (SNAP), United Parcel Service (UPS), and American Airlines (AAL).
The second was earnings being way better than anyone expected.
According to our friends at FactSet, Q1 earnings were expected to grow by 7.2%.
Yet they grew at 12.8%.
Factset said:
“Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages.”
Plus there's more good news.
Q2 estimates are coming down faster by an above-average margin.
That means low expectations.
4. Big Hate Backs Down
Sentiment has been negative for most of 2025.
But it's getting better now thanks to the SPX' 17% rally off the April lows.
The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 29.4% of investors are bullish, up from 20.9% last week:
29.4% is lower than the historical bullish average of 37.5%, but it's the highest level since February 5.
Nothing changes hearts and minds like a nice fat rally.
5. Bitcoin Is Flying High Again
Four weeks ago, I argued that “No One Cares About Bitcoin’s Relative Strength.”
But Bitcoin's been going wild, with the IBIT ETF up 25% since the end of March, crushing SPY:
Speaking of Bitcoin, did you see JR Romero's “bloody insane” price target on MicroStrategy (MSTR)?
You can get it in this video:
6. Powerful Palantir Rose Like a Phoenix
Palantir (PLTR) reported Q1 earnings after the close on Monday.
The report was great but guidance wasn't strong enough to drive an immediate thrust higher.
Palantir closed at $123.77 Monday and gapped down to a low of $105.32 Tuesday.
And as of Friday at 11:58 am, it's at $117.25.
Retail investors can't get enough of this stock.
Yet analysts hate it.
Just 4 of the 25 analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, according to Koyfin.
7. Add HIMS to the List of Retail Favorites
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) also reported Monday – and did almost the exact same thing as Palantir.
It had a impressive earnings report that wasn't strong enough for an immediate push up.
And then dip buyers came in with a vengeance:
HIMS hit a post-earnings low of $38.21 Tuesday morning and now it's over $50.
That's a 31% pop.
Like Palantir, HIMS is hated by analysts. Just 4 of 14 analysts rate it a buy.
So why do retail investors like HIMS so much?
First, the company is growing super fast.
Second, the business model is tailor-made for memes and jokes.
Just look at the Hims.com home page:
Every time a stock drops, somebody's making the joke “order it some HIMS.”
As an added bonus, short interest is 27.3%, which means plenty of fuel for squeezes.
And yes… the author of this article is long HIMS stock and 100% biased.
Some other meme-esque retail favorites to watch:
- Webull (BULL)
- D-Wave Quantum (QBTS)
- Lemonade (LMND)
- EOS Energy (EOSE)
- Grab Holdings (GRAB)
Make sure you do your homework because these names are WILD.
8. Apple Is an Underrated AI Stock
This week,Apple (AAPL) said it was looking at including AI search into the Safari browser, just as Google Searches in Safari declined for the first time ever.
This brought out detractors to keep arguing that Apple is way behind in AI.
But, is anyone ignoring the obvious?
You can download any number of AI apps like ChatGPT, Grok, Perplexity, etc. to your Apple devices.
Let's do a social experiment.
Tell your kids “Apple is behind in AI, so we're taking away your iPhone and giving you an Android phone.”
See how they react.
I'll go to the grave saying that what matters for Apple is ease of use in the ecosystem, and the blue bubbles in iMessage.
I'll let Mark Zuckerberg explain:
9. Disney Just Went Into Beast Mode
On April 11, I said “Disney (DIS) May Become the Most Hated Stock of All Time… and Could Be a Buy.”
It was at $84 then thanks to a long list of fumbles punctuated by the box-office failures of Snow White and Captain America: Brave New World.
Today it's at at $105+ thanks to a surprise earnings beat and solid box-office performance for Thunderbolts.
It's an age-old tale.
Sometimes, the best reason to buy a stock is that there is no reason to buy. Because at that point, no one is pricing in any good news.
Did I buy Disney?
Ummm… I'd rather not answer that question.
Moving on…
10. Gold Is a Question Mark
Gold is the #1 performing asset in 2025, with the GLD ETF up more than 27%.
But it's slipped off the highs because the trade conflict went from “awful beyond belief” to just “absurd.”
The question we're all asking is “will gold collapse if President Trump makes nice with China?”
Of course, if I had an answer I'd be loading the boat with GLD puts… or calls.
Have a great weekend folks!
ATTN: Serious Options Traders
There Is Just ONE Epic Trade Every Week