10 Things You Need to Know – Winning Bigly Edition!
What a week! We just saw:
- President Trump go full shock & awe on the news front
- Inflation surprise to the downside
- Earnings season close out on a super strong note
And a whole lot more! So let's dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now.
1. President Trump Is Winning Bigly… For Now
President Trump had one heck of a week, generating so much news that it's impossible to figure out how good it all is – and how much credit he deserves.
He:
- Signed an Executive Order to lower prescription drug prices
- Secured a $600 billion investment from Saudi Arabia and a $1.2 trillion commitment from Qatar
- Made $200 billion in deals with the UEA, including an agreement to build the largest AI campus outside the United States
- Allegedly brokered a ceasefire between Pakistan and India
- Said he's getting closer to a nuclear deal with Iran
- Lifted sanctions on Syria
- Defended himself against a verbal assault from Bruce Springsteen
- Launched an unprovoked attack on Taylor Swift
- Got a free airplane
Did we miss anything?
Following the news is exhausting.
But financial markets appreciate the injection of some certainty that the world will carry on.
And for now, the market feels like the scoreboard for the President's economic agenda.
So for now, the President is winning. Bigly!
For fun, we asked our X/Twitter audience if Trump was a “Very Stable Genius” or a “Madman.”
The results leaned towards Madman:
2: We Need to Talk About How Awesome Earnings Season Was
There were two big stories this earnings season.
The first was all the companies pulling guidance because of tariff drama – like Snap (SNAP), United Parcel Service (UPS), and American Airlines (AAL).
The second was earnings being way better than expected.
According FactSet, Q1 earnings grew by 13.6%, smashing expectations for 7.2% growth.
So we must ask – could expectations for Q2 earnings season be far too low?
FactSet says analysts predict EPS growth of just 4.8%.
And 91% of S&P 500 companies discussed tariffs on their earnings calls.
So could we see a repeat of Q1 where companies beat overly negative expectations?
Yes – especially if Trump can strike a deal with China.
3. NVIDIA Is Coming Back into Focus
NVIDIA's (NVDA) last earnings report was good – but not quite strong enough to meet super-high expectations.
And then the company announced $5.5 billion charge due to export restrictions on its H20 AI chips.
So the stock crapped out.
But with all the AI dealmaking happening – could NVIDIA surprise investors in a good way on its May 28 earnings report?
Because that's what it feels like.
The market is expecting good things – after all, the stock is up 55% from its April lows.
4. Inflation Is Over?
Outside of the President's deals, the big economic story this week was the light CPI and PPI reports.
And of course, the world celebrated the long-awaited drop in egg prices:
On the flip side of this, WalMart (WMT) warned that higher prices were coming because of tariffs.
At this month's FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell waxed poetic about the Fed's data-driven approach to monetary policy.
That drove some mockery.
But can you blame him?
Let's be honest. None of us can make sense of all the chaos.
5. Love Is Almost in the Air
This week's AAII Sentiment survey shows that 35.9% of investors are bullish.
This is below the long-term average of 37.5%.
But it's a big jump from the multi-year lows seen in March and April.
Nothing changes the mood like higher prices.
Also, the CNN Fear & Greed Index went from 3/100 on April 8 to 77/100 on May 16:
6. UnitedHealth Hits a Technical Milestone – and Might Be Headed to $340
UnitedHealth (UNH) was destroyed this week.
In the span of 2 days, its CEO resigned and the Wall Street Journal reported the Department of Justice is investigating the company for possible Medicare fraud.
The stock was sent back to 2020 levels, and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit 11 on Thursday.
It's hard to get more oversold than that – UNH's RSI had not been that low since 1998.
The stock had a vicious rally off the lows.
And on Friday, Sami Abusaad called it long in the Number Ones newsletter.
Where is UNH stock going from here?
Sami first target is $320, then $340.
Given the way Sami nailed Tesla (TSLA), you should listen to him.
7. Gold Looks Sloppy
Gold was the star of the market in 2025… up until April 22.
Since then, it's down 8% as an easing of trade tensions and improved economic data pushed traders back towards risk assets like stocks.
But is gold now a buy?
Our own JR Romero and Sami Abusaad say no. Both argue there is more downside ahead.
8. Energy Might Be a Banging Buy
When no one wants an asset, it just might be the buy of a lifetime.
Bank of America said this week that fund managers are historically underweight oil and gas stocks.
Funds are historically underweight oil and gas equities, per Bank of America pic.twitter.com/b3qpMRizZs
— Josh Young (@Josh_Young_1) May 13, 2025
That's no surprise given oil's collapse this year, which has pushed down energy stocks.
Over the past 12 months, SPY is up 13.2% while XLE and OIH are off by -6.3% and -28.5% respectively.
With everyone bearish on energy stocks – maybe now's the time to take the other side of the trade.
9. GOOGL Rose Like a Phoenix
Alphabet (GOOGL) hit a low of $147.84 on May 7 when Apple (AAPL) said it saw Google searches fall in the Safari web browser for the 1st time ever.
But it's risen like a phoenix since then, reclaiming the key $165 level with a vengeance.
Of course, the “Google Is Dead” theme has been floated for years.
Here's a Fortune headline from February 1, 2023:
“Gmail creator predicts A.I. bots like ChatGPT will destroy search engines within 2 years”
Since then, GOOGL is up 86%, outpacing the QQQ's 79% gain.
Not bad for a dead company.
By the way, the company should just rename itself Google. Nobody says Alphabet.
10. Webull (BULL) Earnings Will Be Wild
Popular brokerage app Webull (BULL) delivers its first earnings report on Thursday, May 22 after the close.
This one's a head-scratcher.
The stock is down over 80% since the April 14 high on profit-taking along with concerns about insider selling and dilution.
So it's cratered just as its peers Robinhood (HOOD), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Schwab (SCHW) and Coinbase (COIN) ripped.
The tricky thing with Webull's earnings report is that there are no analysts covering the stock.
So it's hard to gauge where expectations are.
For now, the options market is pricing in significant fear:
- May 23 $13 calls are $0.81 with IV of 136%
- May 23 $13 puts are at $1.50 with an IV of 163%
That put skew is massive – and shows that people are bracing for massive volatility
Webull could be at $5 or $20 next week. So if you're trading it, good luck!
Enjoy your weekend. You earned it.
ATTN: Serious Options Traders
There Is Just ONE Epic Trade Every Week