10 Things You Need to Know – Bitcoin Bonanza Edition
What a week! We just saw:
- President Trump threaten Canada and other countries with higher tariffs
- Nvidia (NVDA) become the first-ever member of the $4 trillion market cap club
- The S&P 500 hit record highs again
- A giant crypto rally
- A 21% gain in the usually miserable cannabis sector
- Extension in “The Ultimate Trump Trade” (we discuss below)
And way, way more!
So let's dig into the 10 things you need to know about markets right freaking now.
1. Bitcoin and Ethereum Are BOOMING
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies skyrocketed Thursday as investors went risk-on.
Sami Abusaad predicted the boom, and went long Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE) Wednesday for a sweet ride from $21.89 to nearly $25:
His initial target for ETHE is $30.
Sami also went long iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) on Thursday, with an entry of $63.81. He has not yet assigned a price target but sees incredible upside ahead.
Want to learn how Sami makes these incredible picks? Watch this quick webinar, and then go here to get “ESP.”
2. The Ultimate Trump Trade Rages On
We've talked extensively about the huge outperformance in stocks that benefit from financial market volatility, namely:
- Robinhood (HOOD): +302% since the election
- Coinbase (COIN): +98%
- Interactive Brokers (IBKR): +66%
- Charles Schwab (SCHW): +31%
And all were up this week, even with the broad markets flat.
So what are they telling us?
That until something in the market and/or economy really breaks, traders expect this magic combo of upward movement and crazy news flow to continue.
So let's talk about how people feel about this market…
3. Sentiment Stayed BULLISH This Week
The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 41.4% of investors are bullish, down slightly from 45% last week.
This is well off the 19.1% lows from earlier this year.
These were the first above-average bullish readings since January 30, 2025.
Many investors are concerned about the tariff picture and earnings season.
But nothing perks up the mood like higher stock prices.
And this newfound bullishness comes at an interesting time because…
4. Tuesday's Gonna Be Big
On top of the usual political back-and-forth, next week's calendar is filled to the brim, highlighted by Tuesday, which features:
- The June CPI report
- Earnings from JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and other major banks
- FOMC Member Bowman speaking
And more:
Later in the week we'll get the June PPI report, retail sales, Eurozone CPI, and even more earnings from the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Goldman Sachs (GS), and American Express (AXP).
So there should be plenty of action.
And what's the big story for earnings?
5. Earnings Expectations Are Shockingly Low… AGAIN
FactSet says that Q2 EPS growth is estimated at 4.8%.
That's down from 9.4% expected growth back on March 31.
Every single sector has had downward estimate revisions.
And this is GREAT news.
Why?
Because it means expectations are so low that could see a repeat of Q1's major upside earnings surprises.
78% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates in Q1.
Don't be shocked if that happens again.
6. JP Morgan Is Dominating
JP Morgan (JPM), reports Tuesday morning, has been a dominant market force in 2025.
The stock is up nearly 22% this year, tripling the performance of the S&P 500.
And after 5 straight impressive earnings beats, the market is bracing for a sixth.
Look at that earnings multiple just grow and grow and grow:
7. Smart Traders Are Saying Less Is More
On Thursday, Rick March of the Inner Circle VTF® made this well-timed post on Twitter/X:
Reading TWTR I seesome really intelligent arguments for the market to come in. Oscillators say overbought. Tariffs, Geopolitics. Only one problem, stocks don't break down. In times like these, focus becomes more important. Pick a couple of names that you like the story and the…
— Rick March (@CrankyRicky) July 10, 2025
One of the names Rick highlighted, AeroVironment (AVAV) rose over 10% on Friday, giving the community a monster win:
$AVAV has been a focus name for @epictrades1 and the Inner Circle all week
David's last buys on the stock were in the mid-$230s and he was trimming above $250 this morning 😎
Join the team: https://t.co/ihjWyUCC4q pic.twitter.com/Lo0LxuMBJF
— T3 Live (@t3live) July 11, 2025
8. Fed Rate Cut Odds Still Low
According to the CME's FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in a 4.7% chance of a July rate cut, down from 18.2% a month ago.
And traders are now targeting a 61.1% chance of a 25 bps cut in September.
That number could surge if we get another light CPI report on Tuesday.
9. CPI Has Been Cool… but Will It Stay Cool Enough?
As you can see on this gorgeous chart, CPI has been on the decline for years.
Core CPI has come in below expectations for 4 straight months, so it's possible that a slightly light report has no impact – because that's what markets are used to.
As for me, the only thing I care about is egg prices.
And those are certainly down from the highs… just not enough yet.
10. You Need Some Entertainment After a Zany Week Like This
Contrary to popular belief, the best Wall Street movie is Margin Call.
Here's a pivotal scene in the film – when the Senior Partners of an imploding Wall Street firm meet to discuss the mess.
Even if you've never seen the rest of the film, you'll understand what's happening.
ATTN: Serious Options Traders
There Is Just ONE Epic Trade Every Week