10 Things You Need to Know – Biggest Week Ever Edition

July 25, 2025
/ By Michael Comeau

What a week! We just saw:

The President of the United States of America argue with the Chair of the Federal Reserve over the cost of building renovations (yes, for real)
A US- Japan trade deal
Monster earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL)
A big ol' mess from Tesla (TSLA)
Record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq

And way, way more!

So let's dig into the 10 things you need to know about markets right now, starting with…

1. You're Headed into the Biggest Week of the Year

Next week's calendar is jam packed, highlighted by:

US Economics: FOMC Rate Decision, PCE Price Index, Nonfarm Payrolls
US Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Visa, Starbucks, Robinhood, ExxonMobil, and ARM Holdings
International Economics: Japan and Canada Rate Decisions, Germany and Eurozone CPI

Plus, we're destined to get hit with a pile of trade news, including a potential deal between the US and the EU.

So if you've been hoping more volatility… buckle up because the headlines will be flying in nonstop.

So let's talk about the Fed:

2. Rate Cut Outlook: Not so Good

Traders are taking a July rate cut off the table for next week. The CME's FedWatch tool is pricing in a mere 2.6% probability of a 25 bp decrease in the Fed Funds rate.

There is optimism about September, however.

The market now shows a 64.2% chance of a 25 bp cut by the September meeting.

Of course, next week's bevy of US economic data including GDP, PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm payrolls will impact expectations.

What side are you on?

Should the Fed cut rates now, later, or never?

Let us know in the comments down below.

3. The Mood Slipped Bearish in the Face of Record Highs

Despite the S&P and Nasdaq slamming to all-time highs this week, investor sentiment is slipping.

The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.8% of investors are bullish.

This is the third straight weekly decline since the survey read 45.0% bullish on July 2.

And it's the first bearish reading since June 25.

This decline implies there is a lack of trust in the rally, at least among investors.

Of course, we are still well off the lows from earlier this year.

4. Tesla Estimates Are Still in Free Fall

Tesla (TSLA) delivered its third straight earnings miss.

So it's no shocker that analysts' estimates are still collapsing:

If you look inside the red circle, you can see another dip in FY earnings estimates.

Analysts now expect EPS of $1.72 this year, down from $1.81 ahead of Wednesday's earnings report.

And down from $3.24 a year ago.

What can I say?

Tesla's still a stock built on hope for the future.

On the other hand…

5. Amazon Just Keeps on Shocking

Amazon reports earnings next Thursday and it's always one of the biggest names of the season.

Is it pricing in a monster earnings beat?

The stock is up 30% in a straight line from the April lows.

Plus, as you can see on the table below – Amazon has beaten earnings estimates for 9 straight quarters, with an average beat of +36%.

Yet, the stock has sold off the day after earnings 4 times in a row.

Could this be #5?

6. Sydney Sweeney Almost Created a Meme Stock

Clothing brand American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) rose as much as 28% in premarket trading Thursday on the release of an advertising campaign with actress Sydney Sweeney.

And it was looking AEO could turn into a meme stock.

But the stock came back down to Earth:

Because everyone's asking a simple but important question:

Can Sydney Sweeney drive sales?

Analysts are forecasting Q3 sales at $173 million.

If she drives $10 to $20 million in extra sales this quarter – that would be pretty big.

Keep an eye on this story.

Because short interest on American Eagle stock is 12.2% – pretty significant if the numbers get a lift.

We recommend asking your teenage kids – “will you start shopping at American Eagle Outfitters?”

7. The AI Trade Rages On

Alphabet's (GOOGL) earnings report was fantastic, especially in the face of “expert” predictions that AI will kill Google Search.

But perhaps the biggest story in that report was Alphabet boosting its capital spending budget, which sent up semiconductor stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD).

The best possible bull case for semi stocks for Nvidia is demand outstripping supply.

Longs want to hear “we can't produce chips fast enough.”

And if Google's upping its spend, the competition for AI chips and related items goes up.

On the negative side, expectations for Nvidia's next earnings report are sky-high with the stock at record highs, up 102% from the April lows.

And speaking of AI… it's driving another raging trade…

8. Uranium Is Champion

AI is driving increased electricity demand just as the US becomes more friendly to nuclear energy.

The result?

The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is now up 55% in 2025, more than 5X the return of SPY:

And here's one fun fact about this sector.

Uranium miner Cameco (CCJ), which accounts for 23.7% of the URA ETF, has a market cap of just $34 billion.

So even at these heightened levels, institutions have very low exposure to this sector.

Keep it on the radar.

9. 2025's Biggest Winners

Which S&P 500 stocks have done best in 2025?

Let's take a look.

Palantir (PLTR) is in the #1 spot after dominating the leaderboard last year, followed by energy monster GE Vernova (GEV) and gold miner Newmont (NEM).

Here's the top 25: