10 Things You Need to Know: Nvidia’s Big Problem

August 29, 2025
/ By Michael Comeau

We're closing out August and headed into Labor Day weekend, so let's look ahead at the 10 things you need to know about the market right now, starting with:

1. Nvidia Has an Awareness Problem

Right now, you're yelling out loud “well everyone knows about Nvidia.”

Yes. That is the freaking problem.

The entire investing universe is aware of Nvidia's epic AI-driven growth story.

Wall Street caught up, and estimates have skyrocketed.

And the beats are getting smaller.

Nvidia reported strong numbers Wednesday, but delivered its smallest revenue beat since the launch of ChatGPT ten quarters ago:

The upside surprises keep getting smaller – not good for a stock that more than doubled off the April lows.

Yes, we know this is partly because of China.

But that doesn't make the situation good.

2. Investors Do Not Trust the Rally

The latest AAII Sentiment survey shows that just 34.6% of investors are bullish.

This is the 4th straight week of bearish readings.

This is very positive.

Because it implies some people are still on the sidelines – even with the $SPX just hitting yet another record high at 6,508.

Timing the market on sentiment readings is very tricky business, especially outside of extreme levels.

But this current 34.6% reading is much healthier than a super-positive 45%+ reading.

3. Traders Are Still Banking on a September Rate Cut

Traders are pricing in an 86.9% probability of a September rate cut following Friday's in-line PCE Price Index report.

But what could lock it in?

Next Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.

The last one was an all-time stinker thanks to lower revisions of prior readings.

And as a result of traders' expecting a more dovish Fed…

4. Small Caps Have Been Kicking Butt

Traders have been waiting for small caps to rally since Moses wore short pants.

And by golly, the small cap surge is finally here.

IWM was up 7.1% in August vs. a 1.9% gain in SPY.

Conventional wisdom tells us that rate-sensitive stocks rally in advance of an easing Fed, so this makes sense.

And speaking of rate sensitive, have you seen the homebuilders this month?

They were up over 11%.

5. Culture War Earnings Season Is Coming to a Theater Near You

Two of the biggest business stories of August 2025 were American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) “Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans” ad campaign, and Cracker Barrel's (CBRL) comically off-kilter rebranding, which it just reversed.

American Eagle stirred up memories of Calvin Klein's controversial (and massively successful) early ads with Brooke Shields.

Cracker Barrel was accused of going woke and forgetting its core customer base.

But guess what?

American Eagle reports earnings on Wednesday September 3.

And Cracker Barrel should hit around September 19.

Note: both companies' quarters ended on August 3 (before these controversies), so their outlooks will be critical.

So we might see if and how people voted with their wallets.

6. It's a Banner Year for the Metals

Gold has been ramping hard the past few days, and looks ready to blast through resistance at GLD $317:

Gold has been a massive outperformer in 2025 with a 30%+ gain.

And it looks like it wants to keep pumping higher.

Interestingly, Silver (SLV) has done even better with a 37% pop.

And the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is crushing everything with a 51% gain.

Heavy metal thunder, indeed.

7. Ethereum Got Tested

Ethereum has been a superstar this year thanks to regulatory tailwinds, institutions becoming more crypto-friendly, companies like Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMRN) sucking up supply, and good old-fashioned momentum.

But the #2 cryptocurrency just got tested.

Ethereum just exceeded its 2021 highs by a hair to set a new record at $4,958.