2 Biggest Days Ever + 9 Other Things You Need to Know Right Now
We closed out another big week in markets with the SPX and QQQ hitting record highs after the light CPI report.
So it's time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know:
1. The Rate Cuts Are Coming
Thanks to the government shutdown, we've been waiting forever for a CPI report.
We finally got one Friday, and the numbers were lighter-than-expected.
The headline number grew by 3.0%. That's not low, but at least it was below the consensus estimate.
Now, traders are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday, October 29, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool.
And 94% of traders expect a total of 50 bp in cuts by year-end.
Speaking of next Wednesday…
2. The Tech Megapowers Report Earnings
Here's a partial list of the companies reporting on Wednesday and Thursday:
- Wednesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META)
- Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN)
That's 5 of the Mag 7, and they represent 22.5% of the S&P 500 index.
So far, Q3 earnings season has been stronger than expected (even with rising earnings estimates), and these names could seal the deal on how things turn out overall.
So between the Fed and all these earnings reports (plus ones we haven't mentioned like CAT/LLY/MA), this looks like 2 of the biggest trading days of all time!
And oh yeah… we also get the PCE Price Index, plus Japan and Canada's rate decisions, and Eurozone CPI.
Here's the full calendar:
3. It Could Be Make or Break Time for Nvidia
All those big tech earnings reports will have a big impact on Nvidia (NVDA).
AI powerhouses like OpenAI, Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and CoreWeave (CRWV) have been sucking down AI chips like crazy.
And Nvidia longs want confirmation that the spending spree will continue.
Especially since it looks like AMD (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) may be taking bigger pieces of the pie.
So Nvidia will move big based on the capex forecasts of these tech giants.
It's the biggest potential catalyst until earnings on November 19.
4. Tony Robbins Is Your New AI Guy
I am an AI skeptic, because I question the real-world financial value of all the big AI investments we see.
Now, I see that the nation's #1 Life and Business Strategist (his words, not mine) Tony Robbins is hosting an “AI Advantage Summit:”
Now, I have nothing against Tony Robbins.
I agree with a lot of what he says.
But isn't this the type of thing you see closer to a top than a bottom?
It makes me worry.
5. Sentiment Is… MEH
The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.9% of investors are bullish. This is more-or-less neutral, and up slightly from last week.
And it makes sense because market participants are in a state of confusion because of:
- An earnings season that feels all over the place, at least in terms of reactions
- Minimal economic data because of the government shutdown
- The nonstop news flow out of the White House
And speaking of sentiment…
6. CNN's Fear & Greed Index Is Not Broken
As of early Friday afternoon, CNN's Fear & Greed Index was at 34, indicating Fear.
Is it broken as many market participants think?
With markets at record things, sentiment should at least be neutral, like AAII is.
Right?
Remember, it's normal for sentiment to be neutral when market is going up amid a confusing news flow.
Also, Fear & Greed is not determined by a survey, but 7 market indicators including things like Junk Bond Demand:
Maybe you don't find it useful, but it's not broken.
It's just spitting out what the recipe says.
And speaking of sentiment one more time, trader JC Parets posted a poignant Tweet on Wednesday:
7. Do Books About the 1929 Crash Come Out at the Top?
Andrew Ross Sorkin's new book “1929” hit the New York Times best-seller list.
And JC had the most interesting reaction:
Reading this new book about the 1929 crash has me wondering… do books like this usually come out right before a market crash, or when bull markets still have plenty of gas left? https://t.co/M1BqbSZlZi
— J.C. Parets (@JC_ParetsX) October 22, 2025
So if most traditional indicators are reading neutral, and we have a best-selling book about 1929 out, and the market's at record highs we can conclude that…
Nobody knows where sentiment is right now.
It's a mess.
8. Extended Hours Options Trading May Be Coming Soon
I recently suggested that option tradings hours should be extended, because it would be a huge convenience during earnings season:
While I can't confirm it for sure, I will assume the CBOE saw the video (it does have a whopping 125 views), because they filed a proposal with the SEC to extend hours for equity options trading.
According to the filing, the CBOE would add a morning session from 7:30 to 9:25 am ET, plus an afternoon session from 4 to 4:15 pm ET.
I guess it's fair to give options traders a 5-minute potty break at 9:25, right?
Now if only Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) would report earnings before 4:15 pm ET so their options could fit into that afternoon window…
9. Biotech Has Been on Fire
One of the biggest beneficiaries of the Fed's dovish leaning has been biotech.
The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is the #1 major ETF in October, and it's now up almost 21% year-to-date.
But if you want to see the really hot stuff, look at heavily-shorted small and mid-cap biotechs.
We used Koyfin to screen for biotechs with a market cap of $500 million to $5 billion, and short interest above 10%.
Many are up 30%+ this month alone: 
10. You Too Can Be a Sultan of Swing Trading!
JR Romero recently unveiled his swing trading secrets in this exclusive webinar.
Want all his ideas AND 3 months of Koyfin software?