Your 2 Favorite Stocks: 1 Cult Name, 1 AI Surprise
T3 Live recently held a community stock market survey to figure out what you think will happen in 2026.
While this might not be the most scientific survey in the world, we think the results are interesting.
Here's what we saw:
Traders Are Bullish, Especially on Tech
The market is coming off its third straight year of big gains, and our audience expects the good times to roll.
82.9% of respondents believe the S&P 500 will rise in 2026.
As far as which index will do best, traders are leaning towards the Nasdaq.
32.6% of respondents said the Nasdaq will have the highest percentage gain in 2026, followed by 32.5% favoring the Russell 2000.
However, traders do expect at least one pullback.
56.6% said they expect at least one 20% SPX drawdown in 2026.
The Stocks People Like for 2026
When asked to name their favorite stocks for next year, Tesla (TSLA) came up by far the most often. Alphabet (GOOGL) came in second place, but it was not even close.
So the cult of Elon Musk is as alive as ever, which relates to the IPO everyone is waiting for. (more on this below)
We also asked which Mag 7 stock would do best in 2026, and here's how the distribution played out:
- Alphabet (GOOGL): 30.3%
- Tesla (TSLA): 27.6%
- Amazon (AMZN): 18.4%
- Nvidia (NVDA): 13.2%
- Apple (AAPL): 5.3%
- Microsoft (MSFT): 3.9%
- Meta Platforms (META): 1.3%
Why is GOOGL on top?
Two reasons.
First, it's the #1 Mag 7 name this year with a 66% gain:
Second, it emerged as a surprise AI powerhouse thanks to its homemade TPU chips.
But it's interesting that so few people like META.
Could that be the ultimate contrarian play?
It's by far the cheapest name on a valuation basis:
A Look at Sector Preferences
We asked which sectors would do best and worst in 2026, and we'll list the top 5 in each category:
We'll start with the 5 favorites:
- Tech: 26.7%
- Energy: 17.3%
- Gold/Silver: 16.0%
- Biotech: 9.3%
- Financials: 8.0%
With traders favoring the Nasdaq for 2026, it's no surprise tech is on top.
And gold/silver and biotech have been on fire.
So the most interesting finding here is the love for Energy, even though it's been a major laggard in 2026:
And here are the sectors people think will do worst:
- Housing: 18.2%
- Real Estate: 15.6%
- Tech: 14.3%
- Crypto: 14.3%
- Gold/Silver: 10.4%
The dominance of Housing and Real Estate here implies traders see economic troubles ahead.
You likely noticed that Tech and Gold/Silver are on both lists.
It makes sense because tech is the biggest part of the market so it always gets attention. Plus, Gold/Silver have gotten tons of attention in 2026, and people tend to have strong opinions on metals.
Thoughts on the Fed
59.2% of respondents believe Kevin Hassett will be the next Fed Chair.
19.7% see Christopher Waller taking the spot, and 18.3% went with Kevin Warsh.
As far as rates go, 100% expect rate cuts in 2026.
38.7% expect 0.50% in cuts, with 22.7% expecting 0.75%, and 14.7% expecting a full 1.00% in cuts.
What Will Move Stocks in 2026?
We asked our community to rank these factors based on their expected impact on the US stock market:
- Fed Policy
- Inflation
- US Government Policy
- Geopolitical Conflicts
- Corporate Earnings
There were no real standouts here.
Traders ranked these factors pretty much the same across the board.
So it's hard to point to one single narrative that people are grasping onto.
The market is torn on what matters most.
Everyone Wants SpaceX
We asked traders which IPO they were most excited about: OpenAI, SpaceX, or Anthropic.
SpaceX was the overwhelming favorite at 65.8%.
OpenAI was in second at 27.6%.
Just 3.9% chose Anthropic.
To Recap…
Here are the biggest takeaways:
- Traders are bullish, especially on tech
- Housing and Real Estate are hated
- The cult of Elon Musk and Tesla (TSLA) is as strong as ever
- Meta (META) is a contrarian play to watch
- The market is torn on the biggest drivers of 2026
Happy New Year Folks!