The Electric Sector That’s Skyrocketing Without You
What a week!
We had a big jobs report, a light CPI number, and momentum stocks falling into quicksand.
This song seems to fit:
So let's get into this week's big stories!
1. Utilities Got Hot
Consumer Staples was the surprise sexy sector last week.
Utilities took the crown this week. Look at that big fat green bar on the weekly chart for the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU):
Plus, on Thursday, we noticed a bizarre stat in the options market.
As of about 2:30 pm, 231,546 XLU calls had traded.
And just 6,129 puts traded.
So we had a put-call ratio of 0.026.
38 calls for every 1 put.
Crazy.
So it looks like some folks were sniffing out a light CPI report.
Because a light CPI (which we did get) could mean lower rates which is good for utilities.
But there was another big utilities story that didn't get much attention this week.
We all know that AI is driving higher demand for electricity.
But did you know that AI giant Anthropic just said it will pay the costs of upgrading electric grids to accommodate AI data centers?
That looks like a surprise source of capex funding for utilities.
Sounds bullish to me.
And on Friday, those call buyers are smiling with XLU on the upswing.
FYI – I'm long and strong XLU and VST so my money is where my mouth is.
Now let's talk about the other big sector story this week:
2. The Semis Won't Stop
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) had impressed this week thanks to surges in leaders like:
- Applied Materials (AMAT)
- Lam Research (LRCX)
- KLA (KLAC)
- NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
- Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)
We saw big earnings from AMAT and Japanese memory maker Kioxia, plus Taiwan Semi (TSM) reported impressive January sales.
So even with Kingpin Nvidia (NVDA) stuck in the mud (I do own it), the AI story still has SMH up 13% YTD:
I know you're asking “but isn't SanDisk (SNDK) really the 800-pound semiconductor gorilla right now?”
Well it's still the #1 stock in the S&P 50p this year. But it's actually not in the SMH ETF.
That said, you might want to hear what JR Romero said about the stock this week:
3. Software Is Back Under Pressure
Traders are still worried about AI nuking software in the wake of Anthropic releasing Claude Cowork.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) just hit its highest monthly volume ever. Less than halfway through the month!
IGV had a solid bounce attempt into Tuesday but it crapped out fast as leaders like Microsoft (MSFT) and Palantir (PLTR) slumped.
We're even seeing names like ServiceNow (NOW) and Salesforce (CRM) trade at record low valuations.
Salesforce is now trading at just 15X forward earnings:
This is a tricky situation because it looks like traders are looking for any excuse to sell software stocks.
Even though replacing real software (even crappy stuff) with home-grown AI alternatives is far from easy.
Every person I know works with software they hate.
But even if they could vibe code a replacement, they wouldn't.
Because no one wants to be responsible for the inevitable glitches.
4. There Is Not Much Fear Out There
Countless momentum stocks have been rocked, and things feel shaky.
But there's not much fear out there.
The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.5% of investors are bullish on stocks for the next 6 months:
This is in-line with the long-term 37.5% average.
Meanwhile, options-related sentiment indicators like the CBOE Equity Put-Call Ratio and ISE Sentiment Index remain subdued.
I like these indicators because trading options with actual dollars says more about sentiment than a survey.
And neither shows an explosion in put option demand, which would be a real sign of fear.
5. It's Been a Bad Year for Small Cap Short Squeezes
Since small caps are outperforming this year, we wanted to see if short squeezes were a favor.
So we used KoyFin to screen for US stocks between $500 million and $5 billion in market cap, with short interest of 15% or higher.
We came up with 138 stocks, of which:
- 62 are up this year
- 76 are down
- The average return is -1.7%
So on the whole, it hasn't been a great year for small cap short squeezes.
That said, here are the top 5:
- Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR): +89.5%
- Cable One Inc. (CABO): +37.5%
- Monro Inc. (MNRO): +25.0%
- Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP): +22.2%
- Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST): +21.6%
P.S. Don't forget the market is closed Monday for Presidents' Day!
Here's next week's calendar:
