All posts by Brand Perry
Why I’m Still Cautious About This Market
Yesterday’s big rally came as quite a surprise to just about everyone I talked to. It’s pretty funny how the market likes to confuse as many traders as it can. Yesterday we still had plenty of warning signs to keep us from getting back in. 1) The market couldn’t regain the 50 day moving average and stalled out just below. 2) If the bulls wanted to negate that nasty down day Friday, they needed to get into Friday’s gap, which they couldn’t. 3) Small caps remained much weaker on their bounce attempt, showing beta wasn’t as good of a place to be. All this being said, I am still waiting for SPY to get into the $211-ish range. It got very close on Friday, and I am still holding out for that.
Continue Reading -->The Market Is Setting Up a Different Move
Quantitative Analysis is the future of trading. Rob Smith will show you why. Click here for more info. This is the first time we have seen follow-through in the markets in a while. That should be telling and it looks as though we are finally setting up for a pullback. We have entered the August 5 gap and now look set to fill it and some more. A good check back in a healthy market would be to pull back to around the 50 day moving average or around 213 in SPY. Its only a couple of percentage points below here, but picking up that kind of alpha is what I like to do. I am selling down my longs here and looking to buy back lower.
Continue Reading -->State of the Markets: This Bull Is Strong
I mentioned last week that we are still stuck in high-level range and to me, that means we stick with a bullish bias until that lower part of the range breaks. Pulling back the zoom a little bit, let’s check the markets on a larger time frame and via sectors. The S&P 500 (via SPY) is hovering above the old breakout zone and is well above the intermediate trend line. Still a bullish bias in my view. Banks (KBE)- broke their uptrend and have been going sideways to down since. This is the most concerning thing that I have seen. I prefer them to lead, so this divergence could be a harbinger of things to come, but nothing yet. Retail (XRT) – broke its recent down trend, then checked back into it from above. A good sign and a clear positive trend change. Bullish here. Transports (XTN) – They were stuck in a downward channel, but broke through to the upside and have consolidated there for a while. Bullish again. The bull still seems strong here, and I don’t see the need to play for the downside until we break the lower end of this range. BP
Continue Reading -->