All posts by Scott Redler
The Case for Bitcoin $80,000+
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. We have mostly red arrows around the world as some mega-cap earnings didn’t impress. META talked about some elevated costs, and MSFT lowered revenue guidance. We have the September PCE report at 8:30, AAPL and AMZN earnings tonight, and the jobs report on Friday. And of course, Tuesday is Election Day. It’s important to know your time frame in periods like this. Long term monthly flows are always a good idea. If you are active and trade for a living, see if SPX 5762 holds. Otherwise, it can get choppier to the downside with the 50-day near 5700. Now let’s dig into some individual names, starting with the topic of today’s post: Bitcoin: On October 11th, I announced my Bitcoin Turkey Trot theme. And Bitcoin’s gone from $62.5K then to $73.6K earlier this week. My favored names for action – IBIT, CORZ, WULF, MSTR, and MARA – gave us nice opportunities with various setups. Now we will see if $70-$71k holds for a move to $80K+ through next week. AAPL: Too much banter around this name for active traders. Investors should just sit back and hold like they’ve done for years. Today is the print. We’ll see if this holds $227 into the event, and if it clears $237 after the print. I have no exposure. META’s morning low is $563ish. I’m glad I took off half the options play into the print as it had a nice move prior. The rest will lose. We’ll see if the low is in the first 5-15-30 minutes for sentiment. MSFT was decent, but lowering revenue guidance with a high valuation has it lower. We avoided this. If you trade it, watch the $414-$415 area as active support. Below that is $408ish. We’ll see if it makes a low in the first 5-15-30 minutes or if it trends down all day. NVDA seems like the only semi worth trading. This needs to hold $136.81 to stay constructive. Otherwise, it can get trickier. LLY came off the lows and needs time to rebuild. Investors will be fine. There is not much to do as traders. Yesterday’s low is $769. See if it goes red to green. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-10-31 at 8.44.34 AM
Continue Reading -->Can Tesla Hit $300?
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures went from +35 to +20. We have lots of earnings and economic numbers coming this week. As long as the index holds 5762-5784, we can’t get too bearish. Pivot resistance is 5862-5878. QQQ: Friday’s strength was sold in tech, but it still acted better than most sectors. Pivot resistance is $500.28, then $503 is the July high. Each day will be different this week based on the reports, starting with GOOGL and AMD Tuesday. Now let’s dig into some individual names: TSLA was a huge winner for us last week. I had $240 calls into earnings, sold some, and created a call spread with the remainder. Then I added this as a Power Play Thursday at $250.24 as my #1 election play. And on Friday it hit $269.49. It’s at some resistance near $271 this morning so I may manage it today. But if Trump wins, this can easily be at $300-$315. GOOGL’s pattern is tight and seems like a low-risk option play into earnings Tuesday post-close. Last week, I bought $170 calls for this Friday. I might trim because it was up Friday, and up another 2% today at $166+. $169 is the next spot to watch. AMD reports tomorrow. It was $174 in early October. I am long $165 calls for Friday. On Friday it hit $158.91. We’ll see if it clears that prior to the print. SMCI: Earnings are November 4 The stock has been battered and bruised with plenty of controversy. I bought small lotto calls because sentiment is so negative. $50.61 is pivot resistance of this lower-level channel. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Remember That a Bad Day in the Market is Not a Bad Day in Life We all have losing days. They are part of the game. If you can’t accept down days, weeks, and even months, you had better look for something else to do. But you can’t let the bad times get you down. Life has to go on, no matter how good or bad your trading is going. There are worse things in life than losing money — especially when you think about the big picture of health, family, etc. Never forget that. This Week’s Calendar This week is JAMMED with big events, We have earnings from GOOGL, AMD, META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN and many more. On the economic side, we have GDP, PCE, NFP, etc. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-10-21 at 7.50.22 AM
Continue Reading -->Tesla Destroys the Bears – THIS Is My Game Plan Now
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are +25 after shaking the tree down to the 21-day yesterday at 5762. SPY broke $580.50 and hit a low of $574.41 to shake the tree. I was long SPY puts and short premium in anticipation of that. Today SPY is up as we see if $580.50-$581.75 serves as stiff resistance. I’m not bearish — I just think we can be stuck in a range for a while. I shorted some SPY around $580.75 pre-market. Now let’s dig into some individual names, starting with the topic of today’s newsletter: TSLA is up 14% on its impressive earnings report, pushing the bears back, big time. The stock has been stuck in a range trade since the 2021 top, but we could see $260 to $271 before the election, though of course that depends on what kind of follow-through we see. I’m coming in long 11/8 $240 calls. This is what I’m looking to do: Sell 25% of the calls to lock in immediate profit Turn 25% of the calls into a spread to reduce risk Hold 50% to potentially benefit from more upside I also played the stock through the $224 gap yesterday afternoon. AAPL: there is a lot of debate about how the quarter will turn out. There was a report yesterday about lower iPhone 16 orders. It held $227-ish. I’d avoid it until closer to the print. Actively, it’s tricky. But it’s fine as a long-term investment. NVDA held the 8-day yesterday, giving us $137 as a new point of reference moving forward. That needs to hold. I don’t think it runs away, but it’s still a focus. Pivot resistance is $142, then $143.71. IBIT held where it had to yesterday, giving us the $37 area as new support. I got bigger and I’ll trim some this morning. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-10-24 at 8.26.56 AM
Continue Reading -->Bitcoin Is Beautiful
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are -18 as rates rise a little this morning. China’s PBOC cut its 1- and 5-year loan prime rates by 25bps. Fed funds are pricing in 43bps of cuts in 2024, so it might only be one more this year. After six weeks of gains, some are a little worried as we get closer to the election. We’ll see if 5840ish holds, but for things to change actively, a hard close below 5804ish needs to happen. Now let’s dig into some individual names, starting with the topic of today’s email: Bitcoin is still a major focus in Power Plays. It woke up 10/14 as it cleared $62k-ish. I bought MARA calls, CORZ, MSTR, and WULF to participate. We’ll see if BTC can hold $66k-$67k to drive faster momentum. The weekly/monthly charts look beautiful and point to new highs at $85k+. TSLA was sold on the Robotaxi Event. Six tight days like we just saw don’t happen often. Expectations are very low for earnings this Wednesday. I bought small lotto calls for after the election. $217 is active support, then the key is $214. $224ish is gap resistance pivot. We did well with NVDA calls last week and I rolled them up. Now we see if the $136 area holds to keep momentum here. $140.89 is important resistance. The action here today will be more important than Friday. LLY has a nice upper channel since July. I did nibble some $990 11/1 calls for earnings in case it has a big beat and split. If it does a pre-earnings move, I’ll create a spread. GLD opening at new historic highs, rewarding many on all time frames. It’s $252+ to manage. I’d trim, not add today. This laggard looks okay for a tactical long. I did buy some calls. It needs to get and stay above $21ish to open the door for higher prices. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Set Goals for the Future It’s important to have short-term plans. And netting gains as often as you can is key to success. But think about where you want to go long-term, whether you want to be a pro or not. Once you have some goals in place, you can step back and start to put a plan for success in place. Maybe you’ll need more education, or to learn a new asset class like options. You may also need to develop more psychological resilience to deal with the day-to-day chaos. So set some goals for yourself, even ones that seem out of reach. You might surprise yourself. This Week’s Calendar We have some big earnings reports this week from SAP, GE, TSLA, and others. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-10-21 at 7.50.22 AM
Continue Reading -->Nvidia $140 Matters Right Here, Right Now
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are +20 after the 8-day held yesterday near 5800ish. TSM has the semis higher as it overshadows the ASML disappointment. That’s the big question. There’s lots of great action as the IWM hit monthly highs, and energy grid names did very well yesterday. SPX 5871 is the recent high. Now let’s dig into some individual names: NVDA: I bought NVDA $140 calls for next Friday into the weakness. Today we’ll see if it has enough power to get and stay above the $140 area. That’s what tech wants right now, so keep that level on your radar. TSLA was sold on the Robotaxi Event. It might be worth a look if it can hold $214 and get into the gap above $224. If that gap doesn’t get filled soon, it can go lower. It’s very choppy but looks like it will resolve soon. RDDT had a nice move from $64ish to $77+ to manage. I added back as it held the 8-day and now lit ooks ready for a move to $80+ in the weeks ahead. CCJ was a nice accumulate around the 8 day near $49-$50 and it had a nice day yesterday to see $55.97. I’d think it sees $60+ in the weeks/months ahead. I’d stay with it. IBIT woke up last Friday to get me bigger. It hit $38.93 to manage. $36.82 is key gap support that needs to hold. I’m looking to reload lower. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-10-17 at 7.23.40 AM
Continue Reading -->Yes, Bitcoin Can Hit $100,000+
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. The Soft Landing/Goldilocks rally hit a new high of SPX 5822 on Friday. Bank earnings produced new highs in the XLF as JPM and BLK had big gains. Earnings season will create big moves in the weeks ahead, so know what you own and why. Tech did not lead the tape to new all-time highs, but the QQQ’s cleared its wedge last week to participate. We’ll see if it holds $489ish to clear $494.45 to work towards the $501-$503 area. Now let’s dig into some individual names, starting with the topic of today’s post: Bitcoin is now a major focus in Power Plays, with IBIT and SQ as recent ideas. Plus I personally hold those, as well as MARA calls and CORZ stock. Bitcoin could hit $100,000 to $150,000 in 3-6 months. It reminds me of FXI, which took off after building a huge channel. But of course, let’s watch the price action and manage risk along the way. Nothing is a sure thing. XBI had its first decent upside candle in a while on Friday. I added to my calls for December. It needs to hold $95, and we’ll see how it handles the $99.65 area. Then $103ish is the major. AVGO is erratic at times but is one of the few semis near highs of the year. It looks good. It needs to hold $177. Perhaps this week it clears $186.42. U: Software got a bit better. This laggard looks okay for a tactical long. I did buy some calls. It needs to get and stay above $21ish to open the door for higher prices. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Take Responsibility for Every Penny When you lose money, don’t blame the Fed or an analyst or some guy on TV. After all, when you do earn a profit, you take the credit. Right? Take responsibility for every penny. You agreed to place the trade. You must own whatever comes next, whether it’s win, lose, or draw. Traders that blame others for their actions don’t last. Because when you always shift the blame, you stop improving. It’s okay to lose sometimes. Use that an excuse to get better — not to pass the buck. This Week’s Calendar It’s a busy week earnings-wise, with NFLX, UNG, GS, BAC, C , ASML, TSM and plenty of others hitting: P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-10-14 at 8.35.24 AM
Continue Reading -->The Key SPX Level Right Now
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. Yesterday, Scott Redler appeared on Fox Business’ The Claman Countdown alongside BlackRock’s Tony Espirito: Watch the latest video at foxbusiness.com Scott goes over: Why the SPX 5781 level is key right now The importance of the Equal-Weight S&P 500 index catching up The impact of last Friday’s jobs report Where the SPX can go from here And MORE! Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-10-07 at 7.44.44 AM
Continue Reading -->My 2 Favorite Dip Buy Names
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are -30 as Fed expectations needed to change after Friday’s jobs report. Markets went from 72bps of cuts down to 50bps of cuts, so the market needs to prove it can absorb that. QQQ: a few key names caught downgrades this morning as we see if tech can stay constructive. QQQ need to hold the $482 area. Otherwise, it gets sloppier. Now let’s dig into some individual names, starting with 2 dip buying candidates: DASH has been a great focus and Power Play from the $128 area. It’s had multiple upgrades and hit a high of $146+ to reduce. It’s a little extended, but I will look to buy dips as this name can be a leader for months to come. I’d think $141 is a good opportunity if it can see it. RDDT is still building a huge base from the IPO. The last time it tried to break out, it failed. It has a decent base now. I am long vs. the $62 area and added through the $70 area on Friday. I’d stay with this and buy dips as it seems on its way to the old $74-$76 resistance area, then $85+. TSLA: Let’s hope the Robotaxi event isn’t as overhyped as the deliveries number which turned into a buying opportunity. $237 is the recent low. It’s not down much on the cautious Barron’s article. Maybe it goes red to green and tries to clear $250. NVDA isn’t leading but gives us targeted trades. Today we’ll see if it can hold $121.90 and try to go green. I’m long stock and calls for Friday. $125.02 is pivot resistance. AVGO: Some were long vs. $165. Now it needs to hold $171ish. It can be the first semi to make new highs on the year again. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Tune Out the Noise The most productive part of my trading day is when I sit at my desk, turn on my music, and start checking charts. The TV is off, and I’m not talking to other traders. I’m left alone with the price action, which is what we need to focus on. If you are serious about becoming a successful technician and trader, set aside some time to tune out the noise and just drill down on your charts. You may be surprised at how differently you operate when you’re not distracted by headlines and chatter with other traders. Don’t assume you are immune to the influence of outside forces. Many technical analysts fail because they ignore their own analysis as soon as they hear a conflicting message from the outside. This Week’s Calendar It’s a huge week with CPI, bank earnings, plus the Tesla & AMD events. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-10-07 at 7.44.44 AM
Continue Reading -->A Pro Trader’s Survival Guide – 6 Rules to Live By
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. Trade the Market in Front of You, Not the One You Want The #1 reason traders blow up is that they fight the trend. They see Nvidia (NVDA) rally and ask, “How could this blow up right now?” Instead, ask, “is there an entry here?” If you always assume doom is coming, you always miss the upside. Or you blow up by shorting too early. Trade the market in front of you, not the one you want. Over time, the bull market wins, so you need to ride the up moves. Saying “this won’t end well” over and over again is not a trading strategy! Stop trying to predict the end of the world. Instead, look for smart entries. Use stops to keep you safe. That’s what really matters. Work Hard, Work Smart There are about 250 trading days a year. One hour a day is 250 hours. Two hours a day is 500 hours. The more work you put in, the faster you develop an inner voice that keeps you on the right path. But if you’ve been going for 10+ years without making money, you must pivot. Take a deep dive into your P&L so the numbers tell you what you’re good at. This is not a fun exercise, so be ready for a rude awakening. Develop a Process and Routine I could talk to you all day about Red Dog Reversals, relative strength, trend lines, and moving averages. These concepts all help me find profitable trades. But the #1 reason I’ve survived is that I put them all together as part of a process and routine I enjoy. If you don’t enjoy your routine, you’ll never do it. I’m up at 4:45 am ET, then it’s 30 minutes in the sauna, 5 minutes in the ice barrel, followed by the #630club. From there, I put on music (not TV) while I mark up 40-50 charts. This process gets me ready to take action when setups trigger. Treat Every Day Like a New Day We’ve all heard the saying, “don’t trade your P&L.” Treat every day as a new start and every setup as a fresh opportunity. If you lose $5,000 on Monday, don’t try to make it all back on Tuesday. You’ll trade out of desperation instead of looking for the right trade at the right time. Emotional traders don’t last. Follow your process so you can make smart decisions at the time of execution. On the flip side, if you win big, don’t let your process break down. Stick to your routine and hunt for the next good setup. Don’t Live Your P&L 2020 was my best year ever. But I did not make any big lifestyle upgrades. Why? Trading is cyclical, and we all have losing months or quarters. You don’t want to double your monthly expenses right before a rough patch. You can’t trade with a clear head when you need $15,000 by Friday to pay the mortgage on a house you regret buying. Treat yourself every so often, but don’t turn windfall profits into permanent financial obligations. You’re better off paying down debt than picking up a new Ferrari. Don’t Go It Alone One reason I love social media is the sense of community I get. Every day I interact with like-minded traders who work hard, play hard, and live healthy. There is real strength in numbers. Five hundred eyeballs are better than two. We all have weaknesses that a community can help us overcome. The market feels cruel at times, so don’t go it alone. Lean on your friends, and let them lean on you. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-10-01 at 2.29.31 PM
Continue Reading -->FXI Is up 37% – Here’s Where It’s Going Next
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are -8 as we see if it can hold 5690ish this week, or if they shake the tree lower. Semis lost momentum Friday and are lower today as China wants their companies to buy Huawei’s new chip. But the big story is FXI up another 2.5% today, putting it up over 37% on the year. I said many times that China was having its 2007-2008 moment, and I talked about accumulating FXI many times. Last week was huge if you targeted it actively. Resistance is in the $32-$33 area, but it can see $37 to $39 this year. Now let’s dig into some individual names: TSLA gave us a nice buyable active sequence from $235 up to $261+. Deliveries are Tuesday, so that’s important. I’ll have some calls on, but I did sell my stock pre-market as it hit $262 with the market seeming vulnerable. $257ish is some active support, then $251.50 is key. MU gapped up post-earnings to help the semis last week. It’s in that post-earnings gap. See if it gives a 5-15-30 minute low to hold a portion, or if it reclaims $107.03 to relieve pressure. NVDA gave a nice move from the $118 area up to $127 last Thursday and then failed to hold $121.80. This morning, there’s talk China wants Huawei’s new chip instead of. NVDA’s. $118-$118.50 is active support. $119.26 is Friday’s low. If this area fails, $115ish is key. VKTX was a nice trade from $50 to $70 for many. Some late November or December calls might make sense into this pullback. DASH was a big mover from $127ish up to $146 to get us smaller. It gets very interesting again into the $139-$140 area. Friday’s low is $142.12. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Don’t Fall in Love with Your Opinions Fall in love with a process that helps you succeed. Not your opinions. Some traders go into every situation with a preconceived notion about what should happen. For example, some traders are in love with a particular name. And no matter what happens in the price action, they find a way to be bullish on that stock. That’s why I take an ‘if-then’ approach to trading. I have opinions like anyone else, but my respect for what the action tells me what really matters. This Week’s Calendar We have some big earnings reports this week from PAYX and NKE, but the real focus will be all the jobs data – especially the Friday nonfarm payrolls repot. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-09-30 at 8.20.37 AM
Continue Reading -->